Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Glenn Close as Patty Hewes, Damages (Trust Me)
Last year’s winner submitted wisely this year, picking an episode that shows the full scenes heavily teased at throughout the entire season. Rather than risk frustrating some viewers with too much mystery, she is instead able to showcase two powerhouse confrontation scenes, one with costar Rose Byrne and the other with a random attacker in an elevator. It’s Close at her best, owning up to Patty’s wrongdoings while manipulating events in her favor. I think it’s too early for Close to repeat this year, and despite nominations for costars William Hurt and Byrne, “Damages” doesn’t seem to be as popular as it was in its first season.

Sally Field as Nora Walker, Brothers & Sisters (A Father Dreams)
If there’s anyone guaranteed not to win this year, it’s Field. She won for the show’s first season two years ago, and returned as a nominee last year. This time, her costar Rachel Griffiths got dropped from the supporting category, and the always-sparse Emmy support for the show seems to be waning. On top of that, Field’s submitted episode is nothing memorable, and there are presumably those (like me) who think she’s tremendously annoying. Even if she had a good episode, she’s already won and she has no buzz factor going for her to earn her another win.

Mariska Hargitay as Detective Olivia Benson, Law & Order: SVU (PTSD)
This is Hargitay’s sixth straight nomination, and she’s managed to stay in this field and edge out some heavy cable competition like January Jones, Anna Paquin, and Mary McDonnell. She won back in 2006 for the episode “911,” and her latest episode submission follows last year’s installment and her dealing with her near-rape. It’s a strong episode for Hargitay but not nearly as effective as the one that won her the award three years ago. The actresses who did make it into the lineup with her all have impressive episodes, so I don’t think Hargitay’s really a threat to win this year.

Holly Hunter as Grace Hanadarko, Saving Grace (Have A Seat, Earl)
Oscar-winning movie star Hunter was nominated last year for her basic cable series’ freshman season but lost out to another Oscar-winning film actress with a new TV show. Hunter’s submission of the season premiere is a stunning showcase of her portrayal of an over-the-edge cop dealing with the man who molested her as a child. Hunter’s performance is terrific, but her submission of the season one finale, where she discovers that he’s still alive and goes to confront him, didn’t win voters over last year. I’d say that Hunter may win, but she’s not the frontrunner.

Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (Meditations in an Emergency)
This is Moss’ first nomination after a top ten placement in this category last year. She edged out the other lead “Mad Men” female, January Jones, for this slot, and her episode submission could make lead her to a slam-dunk victory. Her scene with Vincent Kartheiser’s Pete where she tells him about their baby by itself is enough to secure her a win. Her show’s certainly on fire, but what might hurt her is that she’s not as clearly a lead and she doesn’t have an excessive amount of screen time, unlike the other five women in this category. Still, watch out for her as a big possibility.

Kyra Sedgwick as Detective Brenda Leigh Johnson (Cherry Bomb)
Despite four nominations in a row, Sedgwick has never won this award. Nothing else about her show has ever been recognized by the Emmy Awards, and it’s still a ratings kingpin, and therefore her chances are just as good as they were when the show first started. Her selected episode is great, featuring her boldly taking on a cop who’s trying to protect his rapist son under the cover of his authority. No other contender (besides maybe Moss) has buzz currently going for them, and therefore this may finally be Sedgwick’s year.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kyra Sedgwick
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Kyra Sedgwick or Elisabeth Moss
Who will win: I’ll go with Kyra Sedgwick to clinch it, barely edging out Moss, with Hunter nipping at her heels.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series