Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

**I made a colossal error and neglected to post these predictions until now, and it just so happens that the Creative Emmy Awards, where the guest categories are handed out, happened on Saturday night. Oops. The predictions were written well in advance, so see for yourself who I thought would have won and then get the instant gratification of reading about the winner. I'll try to prevent such errors in the future.**

Dylan Baker as Colin Sweeney, The Good Wife (Marthas and Caitlins)
Baker is back for a second round after being nominated for playing the same part two years ago. As a convicted criminal trying to work the system to get himself released, Baker is spectacular, and his performance is equal to the guest spot he delivered last year. His chances, as a result, are the same, though I imagine the show being less popular with voters won’t help.

Jeremy Davies as Dickie Bennett, Justified (Coalition)
It’s peculiar that Davies is the lone acting representative of FX’s superb crime drama after three series regulars were nominated last year. Davies’ recurring role as dim-witted criminal Dickie continued to be crucial to the show’s third season, and trying to offer up his loyalties to his sworn enemy elicited some of Davies’ best work. Especially considering how little recognition the show got this year, I wouldn’t count on Davies having any shot at the win.

Ben Feldman as Michael Ginsberg, Mad Men (Dark Shadows)
Feldman earned his first-ever awards bid for his role as outspoken Jewish copywriter Michael Ginsberg, who in his submitted episode finds his talents called upon specifically to appease a Jewish client and also butts heads with Don Draper over using his ideas. Feldman does a good job of sticking out of the ensemble, but it’s unlikely that such an unknown face would be the first actor to win an Emmy for the AMC drama.

Michael J. Fox as Louis Canning, The Good Wife (Parenting Made Easy)
Fox was nominated for this same role last year, and he’s also nominated for his comedic guest appearance on “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this year. He gets down and dirty with Alicia in his selected episode (which is also hers), going through her bag and genuinely offering to help in her moment of need. If he couldn’t win last year, I’m not sure he can this year, but it’s not smart to bet against the five-time Emmy winner, who now officially ranks as the most-nominated person in this category (with four nominations).

Mark Margolis as Tio Salamanca, Breaking Bad (Face Off)
It’s interesting to see Margolis included here. First appearing in the show’s second season, Margolis has barely uttered a word during his time on screen, instead ringing his bell repeatedly as former cartel man Tio. In the season finale, he gets to be the trigger man, essentially, for Walt’s assassination plot. He shouldn’t necessarily win, but enthusiasm for the show may propel him to it anyway.

Jason Ritter as Mark Cyr, Parenthood (Politics)
It’s appalling that, of the entire eclectic cast, two of whom have been nominated for multiple Emmys for past work, Ritter would be the first member of the extended “Parenthood” family to earn Emmy recognition. To assume that his inclusion was only because of his family legacy isn’t fair, but the actor, who plays the young teacher who starts dating a student’s mother, is hardly deserving of a place in this category. Introducing her to his high school friends in his submitted episode is a less than compelling showcase of his work.

Who should win (based on entire season): Fox
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Fox or Davies
Who will win: This category tends to favor showier performances, which I think this year will be past nominees Baker or Fox, though the fact that they didn’t win on their previous citations for these same roles diminish their chances. Margolis has an outside shot as well.

And the winner was...Oddly enough, Jeremy Davies. I'll never comprehend this category, but mainly, it's a shame that this show merited enough attention to manage a win but completely neglected the season's best performances from Neal McDonough and Mykelti Williamson, not to mention last year's nominees Timothy Olyphant and Walton Goggins. Oh, well. If only season three had aired last year.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series