Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight, and I’m excited to watch! I'll be tweeting during tonight's show, so follow @movieswithabe!This slate of contenders is infinitely more interesting than the SAG list for next week, and I’m hoping we’ll get some great winners.

This is sure to be a wild and unpredictable ride, especially with “Homeland” out of the running after its three wins next year. That clears the path for first-time prizewinners in all of the drama categories. Whether it will all be “Breaking Bad” or might instead be some more creative choices is hard to tell, and it’s important to remember that, despite three previous bids for Bryan Cranston and one for Best TV Series – Drama, the big-time Emmy winner has never won a Golden Globe. I’m pulling so much for Tatiana Maslany, and I really hope she wins. On the comedy side, I’d love to see “Parks and Recreation” win the top prize with no buzzworthy frontrunner, but that’s probably too optimistic. My “No guts, no glory” prediction, without having seen any of them, is “Top of the Lake” to eclipse “American Horror Story: Coven” and “Behind the Candelabra” for the Best Mini-Series or TV Movie award. Let’s hope for some fun winners - check out @movieswithabe on Twitter tonight for live reactions!. Please visit MoviesWithAbe.com for film predictions.

Best Television Series - Drama
Breaking Bad

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Parks and Recreation

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Behind the Candelabra

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Michael J. Fox (The Michael J. Fox Show)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Monica Potter (Parenthood)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical

The competition: The Big Bang Theory, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Girls, Modern Family, Parks and Recreation

For your information: The leading nominees in this category are previous winner Modern Family and last year’s winner Girls. The Big Bang Theory is on its third nomination, while, miraculously, Parks and Recreation is recognized for the first time ever for its fifth season. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is the only freshman series in the bunch. All of these shows have exactly one performer nominated each.

Who should win? Obviously “Parks and Recreation.”

Who will win? I’m not sure, but I’ll guess Parks and Recreation optimistically.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best TV Series – Drama

The competition: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, The Good Wife, House of Cards, Masters of Sex

For your information: Last year’s winner “Homeland,” which also won the year before, isn’t here, which leaves this field wide open. Breaking Bad is on nomination number two and Downton Abbey on number three. The Good Wife is back after one previous nomination, in 2010. Joining the race are two freshman series: House of Cards and Masters of Sex. All but “Downton Abbey” have acting nominees, with “House of Cards” leading with three.

Who should win? “Breaking Bad” or “The Good Wife”

Who will win? It’s hard to say, but I suspect Breaking Bad will have the buzz.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series

The competition: Jacqueline Bissett’s wealthy recluse (Dancing on the Edge), Janet McTeer’s (The White Queen), Hayden Panettiere’s Southern singer (Nashville), Monica Potter’s cancer-stricken mother (Parenthood), and Sofia Vergara’s pregnant Colombian wife (Modern Family).

For your information: The only returning nominees are Panettiere and Vergara, who are now the only acting representatives from their show. McTeer has a Globe for her film work in “Tumbleweeds” back in 1999, in addition to other two nominations. This is Bissett’s fifth career nomination. Potter is a first-time Globe nominee. Not much else to say about this category.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Bissett or McTeer. Potter is the obvious choice among the other three.

Who will win? I would hope that it would be the long-overlooked Potter.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series

The competition: Josh Charles’ lawyer (The Good Wife), Rob Lowe’s plastic surgeon (Behind the Candelabra), Aaron Paul’s meth cook (Breaking Bad), Corey Stoll’s alcoholic congressman (House of Cards), and Jon Voight’s mobster father (Ray Donovan).

For your information: This category is entirely fresh, though it has some familiar faces within it. Lowe is a past nominee for “The West Wing” among other things, and so is Voight, who this year earns his tenth career nomination (he has won three times – all for fiml work). Charles is here for the first time in his show’s run for its fifth season, and Paul also earns his first-ever mention despite two Emmy wins. Stoll is another new face in the race. Lowe is the only representative from a TV movie or miniseries. All but “Ray Donovan” are also recognized in the corresponding top races.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Lowe, but I’d vote for Charles or Voight.

Who will win? Globe voters will want to honor Paul unless they opt for veteran Voight.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Zooey Deschanel’s bubbly schoolteacher (New Girl), Lena Dunham’s spirited twentysomething (Girls), Edie Falco’s sarcastic nurse (Nurse Jackie), Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ sarcastic vice-president (Veep), and Amy Poehler’s government employee (Parks & Recreation).

For your information: This list is extremely familiar, since it’s made up of four out of five of last year’s nominees and a past nominee, Falco, subbing in for Tina Fey, whose show has ended. Deschanel and Poehler earned their third nominations, while Louis-Dreyfus and Dunham are back for the second time in a row. Dunham was last year’s winner for the first season of her show. Both “Girls” and “Parks and Recreation” are nominated for Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical.

Who should win? Deschanel, Louis-Dreyfus, and Poehler

Who will win? I think it’s time for either Louis-Dreyfus or Poehler with no obvious frontrunner.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Jason Bateman’s frazzled father (Arrested Development), Don Cheadle’s soulless management consultant (House of Lies), Michael J. Fox’s news anchor (The Michael J. Fox Show), Jim Parsons’ stuck-up scientist (The Big Bang Theory), and Andy Samberg’s cop comedian (Brooklyn Nine-Nine).

For your information: Bateman won a Globe for this same role back in 2004, and is back for the show’s long-delayed fourth season. Cheadle won last year, and Parsons, on his third nomination, has won once. Both Fox and Samberg are here for freshman series, though Fox is a formidable Globe favorite, winning three times in a row for “Spin City.” Both “The Big Bang Theory” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” are nominated for Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical.

Who should win? Cheadle or LeBlanc

Who will win? This should definitely be Fox.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

The competition: Julianna Margulies’ maternal lawyer (The Good Wife), Tatiana Maslany’s many clones (Orphan Black), Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black), Kerry Washington (Scandal), and Robin Wright (House of Cards).

For your information: Despite her Emmy and SAG snubs, Margulies is back as the only returning nominee in this category. She won for the first year of her show. Washington is here for the second full year of her show, while Maslany, Schilling, and Wright are all nominated for the freshman seasons of their shows. “The Good Wife” and “House of Cards” are both nominated for Best TV Series – Drama.

Who should win? Maslany

Who will win? With the winner from the last two years, Claire Danes, out of the running, it’s anyone’s game. I can’t imagine how anyone who watches Maslany wouldn’t vote for her in a heartbeat.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

The competition: Bryan Cranston’s meth cooker (Breaking Bad), Liev Schreiber’s Hollywood fixer (Ray Donovan), Michael Sheen’s forward-thinking doctor (Masters of Sex), Kevin Spacey’s corrupt politician (House of Cards), and James Spader’s scenery-chewing criminal (The Blacklist).

For your information: Last year, there were four returning nominees, and this year there are four new faces. Four-time nominee Cranston is very popular, and this is his last shot at a win. Spacey and Spader have been nominated in the past for other projects. Schreiber and Sheen are new to the list for their Showtime series, though Schreiber was previously nominated for TV movie “RKO 281.” Four times in the past six years, this award has gone to the star of a freshman series, which means that Cranston has quite the competition. “Breaking Bad,” “House of Cards,” and “Masters of Sex” are all nominated for Best TV Series – Drama.

Who should win? Schreiber, but Cranston and Spacey are good too.

Who will win? It’s hard to pick. I’ll go with Schreiber.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” and “Parks and Recreation”
Who’s missing? Enlightened, Smash, Veep

I couldn’t be happier to see Parks and Recreation here, especially after Amy Poehler’s SAG snub yesterday. Why voters are just now waking up and honoring it for the first time is a mystery, but I’m not complaining. It’s strange that “Veep” got snubbed and sad that “Enlightened” did, but there is one new entry here, and that’s Brooklyn Nine-Nine, which isn’t my cup of tea but isn’t all bad. Returning are the regulars: The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, and last year’ winner, Girls. Not as good as the drama list, but it’s decent.

Who will win? I’d love for it to be “Parks,” but something tells me it will be Modern Family.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series – Drama

My predictions: 3/5, missing “The Good Wife” and “House of Cards’
Who’s missing? Boardwalk Empire, Homeland, The Newsroom, Orange is the New Black

This category threw out three perfectly good shows which didn’t have a great last season, most notably two-time defending champ “Homeland,” which is a big deal (though I don’t disagree). I’m thrilled to see that they welcomed back The Good Wife for its second-ever nomination, and its first since 2010. It’s refreshing to see a difference from the Emmy and SAG mentalities, and to see that “Game of Thrones” wasn’t recognized here, even if it did have a good season. Instead, we get Breaking Bad and Downton Abbey back. The former earned two acting nods while the latter got none. Joining the race are two new shows: House of Cards, which netted three acting nods, and Masters of Sex, which got just one. A pretty good list, but I’m surprised that “Orange is the New Black” didn’t make the cut (probably because it’s a comedy).

Who will win? I’d hedge my bets on either “Breaking Bad” or House of Cards.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series

My predictions: 1/5, picking only Vergara
Who’s missing? Kathy Bates (American Horror Story), Kate Mulgrew (Orange is the New Black), Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife), Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Eek. This ranks as one of my worst categories, and also one of the strangest lineups. For starters, there’s no Maggie Smith, whose show is represented only in the top race this year. Sofia Vergara (Modern Family) as the sole acting nominee from her show doesn’t feel right, and Hayden Panettiere (Nashville) earning a repeat nomination while costar Connie Britton was snubbed is odd. I’m thrilled for Monica Potter (Parenthood), who is finally earning some recognition after her show has been ignored all these years. I haven’t seen Jacqueline Bissett (Dancing on the Edge) and Janet McTeer (The White Queen) in their roles.

Who will win? Who knows? Maybe Potter?

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series

My predictions: 2/5, picking only Stoll and Voight
Who’s missing? Max Greenfield (New Girl), Danny Huston (Magic City), Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)

What a fun category. I’m thrilled to see new inclusions Corey Stoll (House of Cards), something that didn’t happen at the Emmys this past year, and Jon Voight (Ray Donovan). Though it’s terribly unlike them, it’s great to see a fresh face who’s been eligible countless before like Josh Charles (The Good Wife) show up when his show is back on top again. Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad) netted his first-ever Globe nod, swapping with costar Anna Gun, who got the SAG bid yesterday. Rounding out the category is someone nominated for a different TV movie by SAG, Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra). His is the only performance I haven’t seen.

Who will win? Possibly Charles or Lowe, but more likely Voight.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5, missing Falco
Who’s missing? Laura Dern (Enlightened)

I’m glad to say that Emmy and SAG trends weren’t followed here, which means that we get to keep Zooey Deschanel (New Girl) and Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), whose show miraculously got nominated for Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical for the first time ever, along with Lena Dunham (Girls). Though her show failed to make it into the top race again, Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) is here, and a double nominee thanks to her film role in “Enough Said.” Puzzlingly, Globe voters did something they rarely do to fill the fifth slot: they went back to someone who hasn’t been nominated for two years and honored her. I’m fine with Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie) being here since her show is always relatively fun to watch when I sit down for a few episodes every Emmy season.

Who will win? Probably Louis-Dreyfus since she hasn’t yet.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5, missing Samberg
Who’s missing? Robin Williams (The Crazy Ones), Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

With Alec Baldwin, Louis C.K., and Matt LeBlanc all ineligible this year, it tracks that the other two nominees from last year, both past winners, would be back: Don Cheadle (House of Lies) and Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory). Both earned SAG nominations yesterday along with Jason Bateman (Arrested Development). Joining them is one expected new face, Michael J. Fox (The Michael J. Fox Show), and another whose show got nominated for Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical, Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine). These are all undeniably funny men even if this wouldn’t be my exact list.

Who will win? Probably Fox.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

My predictions: 4/5, missing Wright
Who’s missing? Claire Danes (Homeland), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), Connie Britton (Nashville)

Sometimes, I get so caught up in cheering for the nominees that I forget that they’re announced alphabetically, which means that when the one everyone else expected to be snubbed, Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), was announced first, that meant that two-time defending champ Claire Danes wasn’t going to be nominated. I personally agree with the snub, and I think this list is completely fantastic. The one I’m least excited about is Kerry Washington (Scandal), but I know that there are plenty of people who are thrilled, which is good enough for me. Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black) managed to make it in, as did another Netflix contender, Robin Wright (House of Cards). But then there’s the absolutely incredible Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black), who I’m so glad is included here.

Who will win? I’ll go with Maslany impressing everyone.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

My predictions:4/5, missing Sheen
Who’s missing? Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Damian Lewis (The Newsroom)

How’s this for changing it up? All five nominees from last year were eligible, and we get four brand-new ones to go along with Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) for his final nomination. I’m thrilled that Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) is here, and though I wish his costar Lizzy Caplan were nominated instead, Michael Sheen (Masters of Sex) being recognized is still a good thing. James Spader (The Blacklist) I’ll have to with them, and I’m glad to see a very positive reception for Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) and his show.

Who will win? Who knows with this list? My bet is Spader.

Final Golden Globe Predictions

Please find my final Golden Globe predictions for all television categories below. I’m hopeful that they’ll be considerably more creative than the nominees for the SAG Awards this morning, which welcomed new nominees but none from new shows. I’m going to err on the side of Globe voters not blindly following SAG and Emmy trends. Maybe they will still include Julianna Margulies, Eric Stonestreet, Sofia Vergara, and Amy Poehler. I think “Mad Men” will be entirely forgotten, but I’m not confident that Liev Schreiber will be the one to take Jon Hamm’s place, and I’m not sold on Damian Lewis coming back or Michael Sheen popping up. I’d love to see “The Bridge,” a show that I forgot all about when I put together my musings, do well, but I think it may have an easier time at the Emmys. I swapped out Kate Mara for Kathy Bates in the supporting actress category, and I’m just hoping the nominations announcement is full of good surprises.

No guts, no glory:
“Homeland” shut out
“The Killing” for Best Drama Series
Three actresses from “Orange is the New Black” in Best Supporting Actress

Best TV Series – Drama
Breaking Bad
House of Cards
Homeland
Masters of Sex
Orange is the New Black

Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical
The Big Bang Theory
Enlightened
Girls
Modern Family
Veep

Best Miniseries or TV Movie
American Horror Story
Behind the Candelabra
Luther
Phil Spector
Top of the Lake

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
James Spader (The Blacklist)

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)

Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical
Jason Bateman (Arrested Development)
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
Michael J. Fox (The Michael J. Fox Show)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
Robin Williams (The Crazy Ones)

Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)
Laura Dern (Enlightened)
Lena Dunham (Girls)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade’s End)
Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra)
Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra)
Idris Elba (Luther)
Al Pacino (Phil Spector)

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Helena Bonham Carter (Burton and Taylor)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)
Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter)
Helen Mirren (Phil Spector)
Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a TV Series
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
Peter Sarsgaard (The Killing)
Corey Stoll (House of Cards)
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a TV Series
Kathy Bates (American Horror Story)
Kate Mulgrew (Orange is the New Black)
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)

Golden Globe Musings: Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
The Big Bang Theory
Episodes
Girls Modern Family
Smash

Returning nominees:
Enlightened

New contenders:
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Crazy Ones
The Michael J. Fox Show

Potential first-time nominees:
Parks and Recreation
Veep

Past nominees:
The Big Bang Theory
New Girl

There’s an easy swap to be done for one of last year’s ineligible nominees: take “Episodes” out and replace it with “Enlightened.” It’s possible that “Smash” could be back for its second and final season, but that’s unlikely. Keep “The Big Bang Theory” and “Modern Family” in, and probably “Girls” too. That necessitates the addition of another, and while I’d love for it to finally be “Parks and Recreation,” and I’d be equally happy with the likelier choice: “Veep.” I don’t think any of the new shows are strong enough to make it in, though “Orange is the New Black” certainly would have had it entered in this race rather than as a drama.

Current predictions:
The Big Bang Theory
Enlightened
Girls
Modern Family
Veep

Golden Globe Musings: Best TV Series – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
The Newsroom

New contenders:
The Americans
Bates Motel
The Blacklist
House of Cards
Masters of Sex
Orange is the New Black
Orphan Black

Past nominees:
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Mad Men
The Walking Dead

This category is due for a major shake-up this year. “Mad Men” got snubbed last year, and freshman series “The Newsroom” mad the cut instead. The strongest new contenders this year are “House of Cards” and “Orange is the New Black,” but a handful of others could also make it. I think voters will dismiss Sorkin’s new show and might even get rid of one of their other favorites.

Current predictions:
Breaking Bad
House of Cards
Homeland
Masters of Sex
Orange is the New Black