Final Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes air tonight! It’s very likely that Emmy champs “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Big Little Lies” will both triumph in a number of categories, while comedy winner “Veep” isn’t even contending, clearing the way for a handful of first-time winners. I don’t have much commentary to offer beyond the predictions in each category that I’ve already written. I’m five episodes into “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and I like it a lot, and I expect that it’s going to win both of its bids. There’s no one I’m particularly pulling for besides that, and so I’m going to be focused much more on the film side of things. Predicted winners are below – click on category headings for full analysis, and leave your thoughts in the comments! Head over to MoviesWithAbe.com for film predictions.

Best Television Series - Drama
The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Big Little Lies

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Robert De Niro (The Wizard of Lies)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alexander Skarsgaard (Big Little Lies)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

The competition: Black-ish, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Master of None, SMILF, Will and Grace

For your information: The only returning nominee from last year is “Black-ish,” back for its second bid. “Will and Grace” earned seven nominations, most recently in 2004. “Master of None” is here for the first time for its second season, joined by freshmen “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and “SMILF.” Every nominee in this category has exactly one performer nominated.

Who should win? I don’t watch “Black-ish” regularly but I like the rest of this list a lot! I guess I’m pulling most for “Master of None” but anything would be fine.

Who will win? I’ll bet on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel but it could be any of them.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

The competition: The Crown, Game of Thrones, The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, This Is Us

For your information: Emmy winner “The Handmaid’s Tale” is the only new entry in this race. “Stranger Things,” “This Is Us,” and last year’s winner “The Crown” are all back for their second consecutive nominations. This is the fifth overall and fourth consecutive bid for “Game of Thrones.” “This Is Us” and “The Handmaid’s Tale” each have two performers nominated, “Stranger Things” and “The Crown” have one, and “Game of Thrones” has none.

Who should win? I’m only a few episodes into “The Crown” and I’m not as gung-ho about “This Is Us” as everyone else. I’d be thrilled if any of the other three won.

Who will win? Based on Globe voters’ enthusiasm for new shows, I’d go with The Handmaid’s Tale.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a TV Series

The competition: Laura Dern’s protective mother (Big Little Lies), Ann Dowd’s cruel enforcer (The Handmaid’s Tale), Chrissy Metz’s struggling sister (This Is Us), Michelle Pfeiffer’s loyal wife (The Wizard of Lies), and Shailene Woodley’s protective mother (Big Little Lies).

For your information: Dern has five previous nominations and three wins, all for TV work. Pfeiffer has six previous nominations and one win, all for film work. This is Metz’s second consecutive nomination and Woodley’s second overall, following a 2011 bid for “The Descendants.” This is Dowd’s first bid. Dowd defeated Metz and Dern defeated Pfeiffer and Woodley at the Emmys this past year. All but “The Wizard of Lies” are nominated for their respective top races.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Pfeiffer’s work. The others are all great, and I’d be happy if any of them won.

Who will win? I feel like Dern is likeliest, but it could be Dowd or Metz also.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a TV Series

The competition: David Harbour’s sheriff (Stranger Things), Alfred Molina’s director (Feud: Bette and Joan), Alexander Skarsgaard’s abusive husband (Big Little Lies), Christian Slater’s anarchist coder (Mr. Robot), and David Thewlis’ mysterious mobster (Fargo).

For your information: This is Slater’s third consecutive nomination, and he won this award two years ago. This is the first nomination for the other four men. Skarsgaard defeated Molina and Thewlis at the Emmy Awards last year. All programs except for “Mr. Robot” are recognized in their respective top races.

Who should win? I only saw one episode of Molina’s work, and I wasn’t a fan of Thewlis’ turn. Both Harbour and Skarsgaard are very good, but my vote goes to the dependable Slater, who was especially great as his character evolved this season.

Who will win? Given the popularity of his limited series and female costars, I think Skarsgaard is the only one with any real buzz.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Pamela Adlon’s strong-willed mother (Better Things), Alison Brie’s wrestler-actress (GLOW), Rachel Brosnahan’s chatty comedienne (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Issa Rae (Insecure), and Frankie Shaw’s single mom (SMILF).

For your information: There’s only one nominee back from last year, and that’s Rae, here for the second season of her show along with new addition Adlon. Brie, Brosnahan, and Shaw all earn their first Globe nominations for their freshmen series. Only Brosnahan and Shaw’s shows are up for the top prize. The last three eligible winners in this category – Tracee Ellis Ross, Rachel Bloom, and Gina Rodriguez – all aren’t here.

Who should win? I didn’t watch more than an episode of Brie’s show, but I like all these choices. I’d probably vote for Rae or Brosnahan.

Who will win? Globe voters usually like new things, and I feel like Brie or Shaw could be popular but Brosnahan is likeliest.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Anthony Anderson’s proud patriarch (Black-ish), Aziz Ansari’s talkative dreamer (Master of None), Kevin Bacon’s adored author (I Love Dick), William H. Macy’s depraved patriarch (Shameless), and Eric McCormack’s liberal lawyer (Will and Grace).

For your information: Anderson, Ansari, and Macy have all been nominated exactly once before for these roles. McCormack was nominated five times in a row from 1999 to 2003. Bacon won for “Taking Chance” in 2009 and was previously nominated for his film work in “The River Wild.” Anderson, Ansari, and McCormack all have their shows nominated for the top prize. The last three eligible winners of this category – Gael Garcia Bernal, Jeffrey Tambor, and Andy Samberg – all aren’t here, along with last year’s winner Donald Glover.

Who should win? I couldn’t stand Bacon’s show and don’t regularly watch Anderson’s. I like McCormack and Macy but I’ll fully behind Ansari here.

Who will win? I think Ansari will win unless McCormack upsets.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

The competition: Caitriona Balfe’s time traveler (Outlander), Claire Foy’s ruler (The Crown), Maggie Gyllenhaal’s innovative prostitute (The Deuce), Katherine Langford’s suicidal teenager (13 Reasons Why), and Elisabeth Moss’ unwilling surrogate (The Handmaid’s Tale).

For your information: Foy was last year’s champion, and she’s back along with Balfe, earning her third consecutive nomination. Moss was nominated previously in this category for “Mad Men” and she won for “Top of the Lake” in 2013. Gyllenhaal has two previous film nominations and a win for “The Honourable Woman” in 2014. This is Langford’s first nomination. Only Foy and Moss have their shows nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I don’t watch Balfe’s show and didn’t watch past the start of Gyllenhaal’s or Langford’s shows, but I like Moss a lot.

Who will win? Given Globe voters’ enthusiasm for new series, I think Moss is a sure thing.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

The competition: Jason Bateman’s financial advisor (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown’s loyal husband and father (This Is Us), Freddie Highmore’s autistic doctor (The Good Doctor), Bob Odenkirk’s crooked lawyer (Better Call Saul), and Liev Schreiber’s distraught fixer (Ray Donovan).

For your information: Schreiber is back for his fifth consecutive nomination, while Odenkirk scores his third. Emmy winner Brown is here for the first time for his show but was nominated last year for “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” This is Bateman’s third overall citation – he won in 2004 for “Arrested Development.” This is Highmore’s first bid. Only “This Is Us” is nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I didn’t watch much of Bateman and Highmore’s shows, so I’d say any of these are fine – I have no strong preference this season.

Who will win? Usually Globe voters like someone new and hot, so that could be Bateman, but I feel like Brown is more likely.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series - Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5, picking “Veep” over “SMILF”
Who’s missing? Veep, Mozart in the Jungle, Transparent, Insecure, GLOW, The Good Place, Curb Your Enthusiasm

Now this is very much like Globe voters: jettisoning the three previous eligible winners, all eligible, and holding on only to last year’s new addition Black-ish. To be fair, they also brought back six-time nominee Will and Grace after a fourteen-year break. I’m happy that The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is here, and equally thrilled about SMILF, a surprise nominee that I’ve been enjoying very much. I really liked a lot of Master of None season two, so that being here is great too. This is definitely an original list, even if it doesn’t look exactly like mine.

Who will win? Given Globe voters’ typical enthusiasm for new things, I’d go with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series - Drama

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? The Deuce, Mindhunter, Ozark

This is my only 5/5 category, but I think everyone else in the world got in right too. As I wrote in my predictions, this is the first time since 2009 that only one nominee was switched out from the year before, and that was the ineligible “Westworld” to make room for Emmy winner The Handmaid’s Tale. I saw Game of Thrones, which I actually thought was better than ever this season, am almost finished with a strong season two of Stranger Things, have thought This Is Us is about the same as it was in season one, and look forward to starting the second season of The Crown as early as tonight. No surprises here - these are the hottest shows on TV.

Who will win? I think it will be The Handmaid’s Tale.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a TV Series

My predictions: 2/5, picking only Dern and Dowd
Who’s missing? Alexis Bledel, Megan Mullally, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Lena Headey, Mandy Moore

I didn’t watch Michelle Pfeiffer (The Wizard of Lies) in her TV movie, but I suppose this is a consolation prize for anyone who wanted her recognized on the film side of things for “Mother!” (which I haven’t seen either). I’m disappointed that Mary Elizabeth Winstead isn’t here as one of the only saving graces of this season of “Fargo,” but I am perfectly fine with Shailene Woodley (Big Little Lies) joining costar Laura Dern (Big Little Lies). Emmy winner Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale) is a great choice, and I won’t argue with returning nominee Chrissy Metz (This Is Us) since she has been doing a great job with her material this season.

Who will win? It’s a tough call. I think Dern still triumphs.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a TV Series

My predictions: 3/5, picking Cannavale and Hayes
Who’s missing? Sean Hayes, Joseph Fiennes, Bobby Cannavale

Should I get like 5% credit for picking another actor from the same show in place of Christian Slater (Mr. Robot), who continues to get nominated here despite zero Emmy nominations and his show, which is excellent, not showing up in any other category? I would have chosen Bobby Cannavale for this season, but Slater is great and so is the show. With John Lithgow out of contention, he’s replaced by another regular TV series star, Emmy nominee David Harbour (Stranger Things), who I like but who isn’t quite as good as some of the kids on that show (maybe Lucas for season two over Dustin?). Representing limited series we have Emmy winner Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies) and nominees Alfred Molina (Feud: Bette and Joan) and David Thewlis (Fargo), hardly my favorite part of a weak third season. I don’t have much to say about this category - it’s not the best this year.

Who will win? I’d go with Skarsgard to repeat after his Emmy win.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 3/5, picking Louis-Dreyfus and Messing over Adlon and Shaw
Who’s missing? Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tracee Ellis Ross, Debra Messing, Rachel Bloom, Gina Rodriguez

Now this is the kind of thing that Globe voters like to do, dropping the three previous eligible winners and knocking off the six-time Emmy champ Louis-Dreyfus, whose snub I wish I wasn’t brave enough to predict. In fact, there’s just one returning nominee, the wonderful Issa Rae (Insecure), and she’s joined by another sophomore series actress, Pamela Adlon (Better Things). I’m thrilled about Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) making the cut as I thought even though I’m only two episodes into her show, and I’m thrilled to see the talented Frankie Shaw (SMILF) show up here, which I didn’t expect. And I didn’t stick with her show, but I do like Alison Brie (GLOW) and I’m happy to see her among this list of extremely funny and awesome women.

Who will win? I think it will be Brosnahan, but maybe Shaw or Brie?

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 3/5, picking Azaria and Gilchrist over Bacon and Macy
Who’s missing? Gael Garcia Bernal, Nick Nolte, Jeffrey Tambor, Larry David, Hank Azaria, Keir Gilchrist

We have just one nominee to preserve in this category from last year, and that’s Anthony Anderson (Black-ish). Strangely, William H. Macy (Shameless), a great actor who for some reason is the only one of his superb ensemble ever to get awards attention, is back after a lone nomination three years ago, which isn’t typical of the Globes. Aziz Ansari (Master of None) makes sense after his nomination for season one, and Eric McCormack (Will and Grace) is back after five consecutive bids through 2003 and as the only acting nominee for his show. I can’t begin to comprehend why Kevin Bacon (I Love Dick) is here since I found that show insufferable, but aside from that, this is a good list of funny men.

Who will win? With a list like this, who knows? I’d say Ansari over McCormack, but it could be any of them.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series - Drama

My predictions: 3/5, picking Maslany and Moore over Balfe and Langford
Who’s missing? Tatiana Maslany, Mandy Moore, Keri Russell, Winona Ryder

It’s strange to see Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) here for the third time in a row since the Globes don’t tend to work that way, but I guess I’m just not as excited since I don’t watch the show. Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce) made it in despite her show and popular costar James Franco not making the cut, and she was joined by a surprising inclusion: Katharine Langford (13 Reasons Why), whose show I stopped watching after the pilot. Emmy winner Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) is here, and rounding out the list we have last year’s winner, Claire Foy (The Crown). I can’t say much since I haven’t seen the latter’s new season and don’t watch three of the shows recognized here.

Who will win? I think Moss will take it.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series - Drama

My predictions: 2/5, picking only Brown and Highmore
Who’s missing? James Franco, Jonathan Groff, Rami Malek

It seems I forgot to change my official predictions on GoldDerby, where I got credit for returning nominee Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) and new addition Jason Bateman (Ozark), whose show didn’t score a top bid. In fact, the only nominee here whose film is also recognized for best drama series is Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), who wasn’t nominated last year. Surprisingly, Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) is still going with his fifth nomination, and his show has never been nominated on its own. Rounding out the list is likeable new addition Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor). I didn’t watch past the pilot of his or Bateman’s shows, and this definitely doesn’t look much like my list would.

Who will win? Highmore could get some votes, but I think Brown takes it.

Final Golden Globe Predictions

I’m focused much more on the movies right now than I am TV, at least awards-wise, since I’m spending most of my weekend catching up on endless hours of shows that may or may not be nominated. The important thing to remember about the Golden Globes is that they love new shows, and I just don’t think that any of this year’s fare is as hot as a lot of last year’s, which is still popular. For instance, three of last year’s biggest new series are just as big this year – “The Crown,” “Stranger Things,” and “This Is Us.” There’s no reason to think that “The Handmaid’s Tale,” the big Emmy winner, won’t join that list, replacing “Westworld,” and “Game of Thrones” will probably be nominated again even though it’s not as Globe-beloved as it is by Emmy voters. Will “The Deuce,” “Mindhunter,” or “Ozark” crack the list? I’m not so sure. On the comedy side, I still think we’ll see a lot of upheaval, but I’m not sure what to make of the resurgence of shows that used to be on like “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Will and Grace.” I’m subbing Jonathan Groff in for Kit Harington but leaving Rami Malek, a risky decision, I realize, and similarly swapping Winona Ryder out for Maggie Gyllenhaal and keeping Tatiana Maslany. For some reason, I think that Keir Gilchrist will make the cut, and I’ve replaced Larry David with him. Only the Globes would take out last year’s winner Tracee Ellis Ross to make room for Alison Brie, but that’s what I’m predicting now. I’m adding in Bobby Cannavale in the supporting race in place of Peter Dinklage, and keeping the supporting actress race as is, even though Millie Bobby Brown, Chrissy Metz, Nicole Kidman, or a whole number of other actresses could show up. I’m also really rooting for Mary Elizabeth Winstead, who was far and away the best thing about season three of “Fargo.” As usual, I’m expecting a lot of surprises. As always, let’s hope for good ones. My category-by-category reactions will be up at some point tomorrow, so stay tuned!

No guts, no glory:
Dan Stevens for Best Actor for “Legion”
Frankie Shaw for Best Actress for “SMILF”
Margo Martindale for Best Supporting Actress for “Sneaky Pete”

Best Actor in a TV Series - Drama
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
James Franco (The Deuce)
Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter)
Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)

Best Actress in a TV Series - Drama
Claire Foy (The Crown)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce)
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
Mandy Moore (This Is Us)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Best Actor in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Hank Azaria (Brockmire)
Keir Gilchrist (Atypical)
Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)

Best Actress in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical
Alison Brie (GLOW)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Debra Messing (Will and Grace)
Issa Rae (Insecure)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Robert De Niro (The Wizard of Lies)
Jude Law (The Young Pope)
Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
Ewan McGregor (Fargo)
Geoffrey Rush (Genius)

Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)
Jessica Lange (Feud: Bette and Joan)
Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake: China Girl)
Susan Sarandon (Feud: Bette and Joan)
Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a TV Series
Bobby Cannavale (Mr. Robot)
Sean Hayes (Will and Grace)
Alfred Molina (Feud: Bette and Joan)
Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies)
David Thewlis (Fargo)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a TV Series
Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid’s Tale) 
Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Megan Mullally (Will and Grace)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Fargo)

Best Limited Series/TV Movie
Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
Top of the Lake: China Girl
Twin Peaks

Best Drama Series
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us

Best Comedy Series
Black-ish
Master of None
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Veep
Will and Grace

Golden Globe Musings: Best Comedy Series

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
Atlanta
Black-ish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

New contenders:
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
SMILF

Potential first-time nominees:
The Good Place
Insecure
Master of None

Returning series:
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Episodes
Will and Grace

Past nominees:
Orange is the New Black
Silicon Valley

Count out last year’s winner “Atlanta” since it hasn’t yet aired its second season. I’d be surprised if “Transparent” made the cut thanks to the recent news about Jeffrey Tambor, and I don’t think it had much of a shot before that. I’m shocked that “Mozart in the Jungle” earned a repeat nomination last year, and I think that’s unlikely to happen this year. “Black-ish” is still going strong, and this is only the second-ever nomination for “Veep,” so I expect it to return. There are three series that were previously nominated that are back from long hiatuses, and though I’d love to see “Episodes” back, I’d be happy with the other two also. “Master of None” should earn a bid even though only star Ansari was nominated for season one. I’m pulling for “The Good Place” but I’m not optimistic. I think that Amazon’s hot new show, released very recently, is probably going to show up here given that the network’s programs have been honored a lot recently.

Current predictions:
Black-ish
Master of None
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Veep
Will and Grace

Golden Globe Musings: Best Drama Series

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

New contenders:
The Deuce
The Good Doctor
The Handmaid’s Tale
Mindhunter
Mr. Mercedes
Ozark

Potential first-time nominees:
The Americans
Better Call Saul
The Leftovers

Past nominees:
Empire
Mr. Robot
Narcos
Outlander

Count out one of last year’s nominees – “Westworld” – since it didn’t air this year. Substitute in “The Handmaid’s Tale,” which won the Emmy in this category this past fall, and you have a very likely lineup, since Netflix’s two sophomore series, NBC’s sentimental hit, and HBO’s long-running flagship are all still red-hot. It’s possible that one or two new Netflix series could enter the race, but I think both are too dark and aren’t likely to show up. HBO’s latest success, “The Deuce,” is more likely to place, though I’m also not entirely confident about that one. I think that there’s going to be almost no change here, though it’s admittedly a risky choice for the Globes that are famous for loving new shows. The last time this category changed by only one nominee from the previous year was back in 2009.

Current predictions:
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us