Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight! Check out my winner predictions over at FilmFactual!

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series - Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Barry, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, The Flight Attendant

I am a bit surprised that “Barry” didn’t make the cut, especially after other returning shows well into their runs did score in the top drama category. But it’s hard to argue with this list. The Bear and Wednesday are both hot new shows with great leads whose careers are only getting hotter. Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary are becoming more beloved in their second seasons, and they each scored impressive nominations counts. Last year’s winner, Hacks, is back too, though I wonder if it can pull off a repeat win given that the other series here feel like they have much more buzz.

Who will win? I’m not sure, but I’ll bet on nominations leader Abbott Elementary for now.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best TV Series - Drama

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Bad Sisters, Andor, Yellowstone, Euphoria, The Handmaid’s Tale

I didn’t realize when I first looked at this list that “Bad Sisters” had been completely omitted, which is a real shame since it’s one of the best shows I saw this year. It’s actually quite surprising that Ozark and Better Call Saul are here given that Globe voters tend to like shiny new things, and those are both now-ended shows which received one and zero nominations, respectively, in the past. I would have expected something like “Andor” or “Euphoria,” both of which earned acting bids, to show up instead. House of the Dragon and Severance are new shows that didn’t perform quite as well as they could have, while The Crown is now back for its fifth nomination in this category. It’s won twice and has three performers nominated this year.

Who will win? It’s hard to decide, but I’ll give the edge to House of the Dragon over “Severance.”

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Miniseries or Television Film

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? The Patient, The Staircase, Under the Banner of Heaven, Gaslit

I shouldn’t have underestimated Black Bird, which joins another very popular new series, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story on this list. It’s worth noting that The White Lotus, which earned three acting nominations, was not nominated last year before going on to win many Emmys including the corresponding top prize. The Dropout and Pam and Tommy are both holdovers from last season.

Who will win? I think this is between “Dahmer” and The White Lotus, and I’ll give the edge to the latter.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture Made for Television

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Juliette Binoche (The Staircase)

I’d like to first express my appreciation that Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven) did make the cut here since she’s a terrific actress and was very good in this role. I’m surprised that Claire Danes (Fleishman is in Trouble) was nominated since she’s the only one from her show, which boasts numerous terrific performances, but I can appreciate that she is indeed great from what I’ve seen of the series. I only watched one episode of Niecy Nash (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), a series I know I’ll need to catch up on soon. One nominee from last year, Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus), is back again, joined by a superb costar, Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus), who is definitely one of the standouts of season two.

Who will win? I think this will likely go to Coolidge.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture Made for Television

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Shea Whigham (Gaslit), Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)

I’m still very disappointed that Whigham isn’t here especially with his costar Julia Roberts nominated, and I’m surprised that Imperioli was left off while his onscreen father, F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus), did make the cut. I’m happy to see Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird) and have mixed feelings on Domhnall Gleeson (The Patient), a very good actor on a show that I didn’t love. I’m not sure that Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) needs to be here, though he was good in his show’s first episode, and I’m a big fan of Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) even though I didn’t watch his show past the first episode.

Who will win? I don’t know but I’ll go with Hauser for now.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Comedy or Drama Series

My predictions: 1/5
Who’s missing? Lesley Manville (The Crown), Patricia Arquette (Severance), Olivia Cooke (House of the Dragon), Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)

This was my worst category, though I’m quite surprised that the women I predicted didn’t make the cut given that all four series were nominated for Best TV Series – Drama and I’m sure they came close to getting in. What I think I didn’t give enough weight to was comedy series, with Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) and Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) translating their Emmy nominations to bids here. I’m disappointed that the excellent Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) was demoted from her rightful leading nomination last year to a placement here, since it’s just not correct, no matter how good she is. Julia Garner (Ozark) is a great choice for a show that did manage to get in, which was far from guaranteed, with only one other dramatic contender, the superb Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown), whose previous portrayer won the leading prize for season four.

Who will win? It’s a competitive race. I’ll bet on Debicki with Ralph a very distinct possibility too.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Comedy or Drama Series

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Matt Smith (House of the Dragon), Claes Bang (Bad Sisters)

The two nominees I didn’t predict I definitely could have seen coming: Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary), an Emmy nominee and star of the most-nominated TV series this year, and John Lithgow (The Old Man), who has been nominated previously in this category for two other series. Jonathan Pryce (The Crown) joins two of his costars in being nominated, while Henry Winkler (Barry) is back along with his show’s lead and creator, Bill Hader. John Turturro (Severance) is one of just two performer representatives from his show, but it’s good to see him here for a terrific performance and series.

Who will win? I’m honestly not sure. Maybe Turturro?

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Toni Collette (The Staircase)

It’s always frustrating to me when it’s clear voters have seen a particular series or movie but don’t notice the best performers. Julia Roberts (Gaslit) was one of the selling points of her show but Shea Whigham was absolutely the MVP and should have been cited ahead of her. Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy) is back for a second consecutive nomination, this time without her costar, and she joins three women who competed against each other for the Emmy last year. One of them is a double nominee this year, Julia Garner (Inventing Anna), also up for the final season of “Ozark.” It’s once again Lily James (Pam and Tommy) vs. Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) for the win, with the former doubling the nomination count of the latter.

Who will win? I think Seyfried can still win.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Steve Carell (The Patient)

It’s interesting that, like at the Emmys, Colin Firth (The Staircase) and Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) are here without their shows being nominated, though the circumstances are flipped, with the latter having a costar cited rather than the former. Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy) is in good company again with two costars nominated, as is new addition Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story). The one nominee I missed – and shouldn’t have – is Taron Egerton (Black Bird), whose series also did very well overall today.

Who will win? I suspect this will be Peters but could also be Egerton.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish)

Now this I just can’t understand. The Globes were one of the only groups to actually put Hannah Einbinder in the right category, and instead of acknowledging that correct decision and giving her a second consecutive bid, they dropped her down to the supporting race to be like everyone else. I’m glad it made room for the criminally underrated Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant), but I don’t support it. I did correctly predict the complete absence of Brosnahan and her show, which is a shame, but that means that, aside from returning champ Jean Smart (Hacks), this is all new blood. It’s good to see Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) honored after missing out both here and at the Emmys last year, and she’s joined by the wildly popular Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), whose show is actually the TV nominations leader, and Jenna Ortega (Wednesday), another great choice whose show actually cracked the top category.

Who will win? These women are all popular, but I’d bet on Ortega or Brunson.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

I went with an out-there pick, Mohammed Amer for “Mo” for the fifth slot, but it ended up being a past winner returning so many years later for his show’s final two seasons, Donald Glover (Atlanta). It’s great to see another returning performer, Bill Hader (Barry), but I’m startled that his show wasn’t nominated in the top category. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) is a superb new addition to this category and to the long list of Globe nominees, joining two of last year’s nominees, Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) and Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building).

Who will win? This might actually be White, which would be pretty cool.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Britt Lower (Severance), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

I was so surprised by the unnecessary inclusion of Hilary Swank (Alaska Daily) that I didn’t realize who she had knocked out. That would be the fantastic Lower, who also missed out on an Emmy nomination despite being absolutely terrific. Fortunately, the rest of this list is solid, with Emmy winner Zendaya (Euphoria) and a multiple Globe winner on her last nod for this role, Laura Linney (Ozark), joined by the stars of what may just be the two most popular shows today: Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon) and Imelda Staunton (The Crown).

Who will win? It’s hard to know, but I’d bet on Zendaya or Staunton.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

My predictions: 2/5
Who’s missing? Jason Bateman (Ozark), Dominic West (The Crown), Paddy Considine (House of the Dragon)

I didn’t do great here, predicting only Adam Scott (Severance) and Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul). Bateman, West, and Considine seemed especially likely after hearing the nominees in other categories and that they had costars nominated as well as their shows in the top categories. But instead there were actors from three shows that likely just missed the top race: Kevin Costner (Yellowstone) on a series I didn’t watch past the pilot, Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) on a show I did like, and Diego Luna (Andor) on one that I find very overrated and would have expected more in the drama series race instead.

Who will win? This one is tough. I’ll pick Scott for now.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Comedy Series

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
The Great
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Reservation Dogs
Ted Lasso

Three of last year’s nominees are eligible again, and two are very likely to be back: Hacks and Only Murders in the Building. While Reservation Dogs could also return, it faces a lot of competition, including from shows that were nominated the last time they were eligible, like Barry, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and The Flight Attendant, as well as past nominees like Atlanta, black-ish, and Emily in Paris. Shows that have never been nominated but could be for the first time include What We Do in the Shadows, Ghosts, Dead to Me, The Righteous Gemstones, Better Things, Russian Doll, and Ramy. New contenders that might also show up are The Bear, Wednesday, Peacemaker, Reboot, Our Flag Means Death, Somebody Somewhere, Mo, Minx, Loot, A League of Their Own, I Love That For You, and Life and Beth.

Current predictions:
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Drama Series

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Lupin
The Morning Show
Pose
Squid Game
Succession

With none of last year’s nominees in the running, the surest thing is The Crown, which has been nominated every time it was eligible. Outlander, Stranger Things, This Is Us, Westworld, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, and Ozark have all been nominated before and could be this time around too. It’s pretty crazy to think that Better Call Saul has never been cited here, and this may finally be its chance for its last season. It could also be the time for Yellowstone, Euphoria, The Boys, or Bridgerton, but I’d look instead to a large slate of new contenders. At the head of the pack are House of the Dragon, Severance, Bad Sisters, Andor, The Old Man, The Gilded Age, Bel-Air, Tulsa King, and The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power.

Current predictions:
Bad Sisters
Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
Severance

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Miniseries or Television Film

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Dopesick
Impeachment: American Crime Story
Maid
Mare of Easttown
The Underground Railroad

I hadn’t even realized since the awards weren’t televised last year that season one of The White Lotus didn’t even get nominated, but I imagine that will be rectified this time around. Three of the other Emmy nominees from last year are eligible – The Dropout, Pam and Tommy and Inventing Anna - plus there a handful of contenders that didn’t make the cut there but could here, like Station Eleven, Under the Banner of Heaven, The Staircase, The Offer, Gaslit, and WeCrashed. Other new options include Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, The Patient, Welcome to Chippendales, The English, George and Tammy, and Fleishman is in Trouble.

Current predictions:
The Dropout
Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Pam and Tommy
The Patient
The White Lotus

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture Made for Television

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick)
Andie MacDowell (Maid) 

Sarah Snook (Succession)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

This category is newly focused on just limited and anthology series, and even though TV movies are listed, I’d be surprised to see any honored. One of last year’s nominees is eligible again, and she’s sure to be back: Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus). She’s also the only Emmy nominee who could show up here, and, given how popular her show was there, it’s possible she could be joined by multiple costars. The likeliest is Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus), followed by Sabrina Impaccatiore (The White Lotus), Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus), Beatrice Grannò (The White Lotus), and Haley Lu Richardson (The White Lotus). Niecy Nash-Betts (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) is the best non-Lotus bet from the back half of 2022, with a handful of first-half contenders also potentially in the running: Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven), Juliette Binoche (The Staircase), Parker Posey (The Staircase), Laurie Metcalf (The Dropout), Juno Temple (The Offer), Melanie Lynskey (Candy), and May Calamaway (Moon Knight).

Current predictions:
Juliette Binoche (The Staircase)
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Niecy Nash-Betts (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture Made for Television

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)

This category is newly focused on just limited and anthology series, and even though TV movies are listed, I’d be surprised to see any honored. Given that last year’s entire slate came from comedy and drama series, this will be a fresh list. I do see a world in which one show dominates the entire category as it nearly did in the supporting Emmy races last year, but I think that Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus) and F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus) are far likelier to be recognized than their less famous costars Theo James (The White Lotus), Will Sharpe (The White Lotus), Adam DiMarco (The White Lotus), Leo Woodall (The White Lotus), and Tom Hollander (The White Lotus). From the first half of the year, Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) is the only eligible Emmy nominee, while Shea Whigham (Gaslit), Naveen Andrews (The Dropout), William H. Macy (The Dropout), Ben Schwartz (The Afterparty), Matthew Goode (The Offer), Sam Worthington (Under the Banner of Heaven), and Wyatt Russell (Under the Banner of Heaven) all likely came close to a nomination. Michael Stuhlbarg (The Staircase) was nominated for a different project and may earn a bid for this one now. From the second half of the year, watch out for Richard Jenkins (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) and Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird).

Current predictions:
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)
Richard Jenkins (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Shea Whigham (Gaslit)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Comedy or Drama Series

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what shows and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick)
Andie MacDowell (Maid) 

Sarah Snook (Succession)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

This category is newly focused on just comedy and drama without limited series or TV movie contenders, which is still a blend of two very different fields. Julia Garner (Ozark), last year’s Emmy winner, was nominated here the last time she was eligible, and Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Chrissy Metz (This Is Us), Thandiwe Newton (Westworld), and Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale) are past nominees who could easily return. From the corresponding Emmy fields, watch out for Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul), Patricia Arquette (Severance), and Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria). New contenders include Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown), Lesley Manville (The Crown), Olivia Cooke (House of the Dragon), Milly Alcock (House of the Dragon), Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age), and Denise Gough (Andor), and it’s always possible that Sadie Sink (Stranger Things), Zazie Beetz (Atlanta), or Sarah Goldberg (Barry) could earn their first nominations. She was nominated in the leading category last year, and it’s likely Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) will stay there rather get transplanted to this field.

Current predictions:
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Olivia Cooke (House of the Dragon)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Lesley Manville (The Crown)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)