Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.Simon Baker as Patrick Jane, The Mentalist (Pilot)
Baker’s inclusion here is an absolute shocker. He stars on a freshman network show, and, in my opinion, his performance doesn’t exactly demand much. Nonetheless, the fact that he got nominated is extremely significant, and he’s a legitimate threat to win. Back in 2005, Patricia Arquette picked up a nomination – and a win – for her performance in NBC’s supernatural procedural “Medium.” Baker’s situation is very similar, and he also wisely submitted the pilot. Any viewer has the same opportunity to get to know the brand-new character, and Baker’s charisma may outshine all the heavy cable performances he’s facing off against.
Gabriel Byrne as Paul Weston, In Treatment (Gina: Week 4)
Byrne returns for his second year as an overworked therapist with a slew of troublesome patients with deep issues and plenty of dramatic material for him to select for voters to see. He submitted very wisely, choosing probably his most well-rounded episode, where his anger finally gets the best of him and he lashes out at his girlfriend and his therapist, while testifying in court on behalf of his skill as a therapist and watching his father die in the hospital. One particularly powerful scene in his tape shows him complaining about his therapist not having water and Gina explaining to him that the water’s right on the table, stressing his determination to be mad at her as the reason he’s blinded. It’s a knockout performance, but Byrne doesn’t have the buzz to compete against the likes of Hamm and Cranston, both on more popular, Emmy-welcomed shows.
Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (Phoenix)
Last year, Cranston pulled off a surprise victory for the pilot episode of AMC’s drama. This year, the show managed to break into the Best Drama Series category, signaling great support for the show. Cranston’s character has become increasingly less relatable, and in his chosen episode, he misses the birth of his child to deliver drug money and allows a young woman to die in order to get his partner back on track. It’s a deeply disturbing performance, but also a shocking and impressive one. He could very easily repeat – he’s got tough competition, but he’s the only winner among the crew.
Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (The Mountain King)
Hamm’s back for the second time as the man leading AMC’s wildly-embraced drama series. This year, he submitted terrifically, choosing an episode which humanizes the usually stoic adulterer as he shares his secrets and uncertainties with the one person who knows his true identity. Hamm will likely return in this category for years to come, so there’s no reason he needs to win now, but I think that if he can overcome last year’s champ Cranston, the popularity of “Mad Men” will prevail.
Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan, Dexter (The Lion Sleeps Tonight)
This is Hall’s second consecutive nomination as nice-guy serial killer Dexter. His show is up again for Best Drama Series, and season-long guest star Jimmy Smits is also nominated. Hall’s episode is pretty great, and it allows him to display his softer side as he thinks about the possibility of being a father and ensures that his girlfriend’s kids are safe from a preying pedophile. It’s an impressive performance, but I don’t think that he’ll be able to beat Hamm or Cranston. “Dexter” just isn’t quite as well-regarded, in my mind, and therefore Hall probably won’t take home the gold.
Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House, House (Under My Skin)
This is Laurie’s fourth trip down the aisle, making him the most senior nominee in this category. He’s still never won, which is somewhat hard to believe given how much people seem to love him (and wins for writing and directing over the past few years for the show). His submission, in which he hallucinates Amber and isn’t able to sleep, doesn’t hold a candle to last year’s tape where he pieced together his memories to solve a case. If he couldn’t win last year, I don’t think there’s any way he could take home the trophy this time around, especially given all his competition.
Who should win (based on entire season): Jon Hamm
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Jon Hamm or Bryan Cranston
Who will win: It’s just a fierce a competition as last year, and while Cranston could repeat, I think that Jon Hamm will take home the gold. If it’s not those two, watch our for Baker, Hall, or Laurie.
Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
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