Emmy Winner Predictions: Best TV Movie

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Beware of minor spoilers for each movie.

Chip ’n Dale: Rescue Rangers premiered on Disney+ on May 20th, 2022. It is adapted from the popular 80s series of the same name. It’s an accessible and entertaining look at the world of animated characters where they interact with humans on a regular basis. This is the film’s only Emmy nomination.

Ray Donovan: The Movie premiered on Showtime on January 14th, 2022. The follow-up to the seven-season series that earned stars Ray Donovan, Jon Voight, and Hank Azaria Emmy nominations as well as a directing bid is finally up for a top prize. Ray and Mickey go head-to-head in the wrap-up to the show. This is the film’s only Emmy nomination.

Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon premiered on Paramount+ on December 23rd, 2021. The sequel to the Comedy Central show follows the short form series that garnered two pairs of two Emmy nominations the past two years. The hapless Nevada police department goes undercover on a cruise to try to find the notorious figurehead behind the conspiracy theory group QAnon. This is the film’s only nomination.

The Survivor premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival last fall before making its debut on HBO on April 27th, 2022. Barry Levinson directs Ben Foster in the true story of Harry Haft, a boxer who survived the Holocaust and made his way to the United States. I had the chance to interview Levinson and Foster – you can watch that conversation here. This is the film’s only nomination.

Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas premiered on Roku on December 1st, 2021. This is the follow-up to the NBC musical series that was an unfortunate underperformer with Emmy voters and was cancelled after two season. Zoey and Max get to experience a complicated Christmas filled with drama and song. This is the only film in this category with an additional nomination, for choreography.

It’s hard to know who the frontrunner is here since these movies just didn’t show up in other categories. I’d like to think that “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” has a shot if only because it did get cited elsewhere, but I imagine this is a contest between two radically different projects, “Chip ’n Dale: Rescue Rangers” and “The Survivor.” I fully expected the latter to earn bids for directing and acting, and the fact that it didn’t makes me think that the former has a solid shot. But the latter is such a different specimen, and so I think I may stick with it to win.

What should win: I would pick “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” or “The Survivor.”
What will win: I think The Survivor will take it.

Emmy Nominees: Best TV Movie

My predictions: 3/5

I’m genuinely disappointed that “The Fallout” isn’t here because it was so good and now won’t be honored, but out of the five nominees in this race, they earned a total of six nominations, so there’s not much hope for the future of the TV movie. I’m particularly disappointed with The Survivor since it could have at least earned bids for director Barry Levinson or star Ben Foster, as well as technical accolades. I’m thrilled that Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas is here and that it scored an accompanying choreography bid, and I’m neutral about Ray Donovan: The Movie, a relatively unnecessary conclusion to a show I mostly liked. I have yet to see Reno 911! The Hunt for QAnon and Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers.

What should win? From what I’ve seen, “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” or “The Survivor.” What will win? I’d love to say “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas,” but I think this will likely be the also very good The Survivor.

Emmy Predictions: Best TV Movie

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square, Oslo, Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia, Sylvie’s Love, Uncle Frank

The competition: I wrote up this category in great detail for AwardsWatch - follow this link to read all about it, and see my predicted nominees below!

The predicted nominees: Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers, The Fallout, Fresh, The Survivor, Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas

The predicted winner: This should be The Survivor without much trouble.

Next up: Best Limited or Anthology Series

Emmy Nominees: Best TV Movie

My predictions: 4/5

There was no reason for me to think that Oslo would be snubbed and that “Coastal Elites” would get in, but oh well. I’m glad that two films that debuted at Sundance, Sylvie’s Love and Uncle Frank, made the cut, though I wish their technical elements had been appreciated. I haven’t seen Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square and Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia, but those are now on my list!

What should win? From what I’ve seen, “Sylvie’s Love.”
What will win? I think it will be Sylvie’s Love.

Emmy Predictions: Best TV Movie

The 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 13th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: American Son, Bad Education, Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings: These Old Bones, El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs the Reverend

The competition: This category actually has more submissions than the limited series race, with thirteen more entrants than last year. I feel like there are distinct frontrunners this time, as opposed to when it feels like it’s just one or two obvious choices and then some random inclusions I won’t have even heard of until nominations come out. Sundance selections Sylvie’s Love and Uncle Frank should be guaranteed spots, and I’d love it if Pink Skies Ahead, another film I saw at a festival before it got acquired by MTV, had a shot. Oslo is more high-profile than most, but I’m not sure if it will be eclipsed by Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia and Dolly Parton’s Christmas On the Square, which would mark Parton’s third bird in five years in this race. Unpregnant is also possible as a well-received TV film. Coastal Elites would also be a fun choice, representative of one of the first productions truly made for TV to deal entirely with the current state of the world.

The predicted nominees: Coastal Elites, Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square, Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia, Sylvie’s Love, Uncle Frank

The predicted winner: I think Sylvie’s Love would make a likely and deserving winner.

Next up: Best Limited Series or Anthology Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best TV Movie

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Beware of minor spoilers for each movie.

American Son premiered on Netflix on September 12th, 2019. It is adapted from the Broadway play of the same name and features the same four cast members. Its star Kerry Washington is nominated this year for her performance in the limited series “Little Fires Everywhere.” Its exploration of the police and profiling through the harrowing experiences of an interracial couple awaiting news of their son at a police station feels even more relevant now than when this film was released. This is the film’s only Emmy nomination.

Bad Education premiered on HBO on April 25th, 2020. It’s an entertaining and captivating look at corruption in a school district that takes an often humorous path on the road to the public revelation of its events. Star Hugh Jackman is nominated for his performance.

El Camino premiered on Netflix on October 7th, 2019. It’s considered a sequel to the highly successful “Breaking Bad,” which was nominated for 58 Emmy Awards and won 16 of them during its initial run. This film, which chronicles the life of former drug cook Jesse Pinkman as he’s on the run from his past, scored additional nominations for picture editing, sound mixing, and sound editing. Despite having won three Emmy Awards for his performance in the original show, star Aaron Paul is not nominated this year.

These Old Bones premiered on Netflix on November 22nd, 2019. It is technically the eighth and final episode of the series “Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings,” but qualified here due to its runtime. Its tale of a woman who lives in the mountains and the lawyer sent home to evict her is sentimental and endearing, if admittedly a bit campy. This is the episode’s only nomination.

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend premiered on Netflix on May 12th, 2020. The interactive special, which offers viewers choices throughout its narrative, serves as an epilogue of sorts to the original series that concluded in January 2019 after 51 episodes and 18 Emmy nominations, none of which it won. Supporting actor Tituss Burgess is nominated for his performance, his fifth bid overall for the role.

Despite some buzz for a “Bad Education” and “El Camino,” neither performed all that well, meaning that all five nominees in this category earned just ten total nominations, none for directing or writing and only two for acting. HBO typically dominates this category, winning twenty times between 1993 and 2015. Netflix has won this award three years running for “Black Mirror,” which is now considered a drama series. It’s not as if that narrows things down either since Netflix makes up 80% of this category.

What should win: These are all decent choices, but “Bad Education” is my clear favorite.
What will win: I’m not sure it’s all that far ahead, but I still think Bad Education will take it.