Emmy Predictions: Comedy Categories

I analyzed and predicted the comedy categories ahead of tomorrow's Emmy nominations for The Film Experience – head over there to read my predictions!

Emmy Predictions: Limited/Anthology/TV Movie Categories

I analyzed and predicted the limited and anthology series and TV movie categories ahead of tomorrow's Emmy nominations for The Film Experience – head over there to read my predictions!

Emmy Predictions: Drama Categories

I analyzed and predicted the drama categories ahead of tomorrow's Emmy nominations for The Film Experience – head over there to read my predictions!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: That’s a wrap! Enjoy the show!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Abbott Elementary
“Pilot,” “Light Bulb,” “Work Family,” “Step Class,” “Open House,” “Zoo Balloon”
Season one of the breakout hit starring and created by Quinta Brunson scored seven Emmy nominations, which isn’t a huge haul, but it’s more notable for its revitalization of the broadcast network sitcom. Attending the Hollywood Critics Association TV Awards a few weeks ago, I saw the enthusiasm for the show in the room and how it won so many prizes, and while I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, I do feel comfortable predicting this show to win this prize in the same way that “Arrested Development” did years ago.

Barry
“forgiving jeff,” “limonada,” “all the sauces,” “710N,” “candy asses,” “starting now”
This show is back after far too long off the air. Its fourteen-nomination count is comfortably between its season one and two totals, and though it hasn’t been eligible for the past two Emmy seasons, it came back in a solid way. Better yet, it demonstrated an incredible quality that gives it an unexpected advantage to potentially win this prize for the first time so far into its run. I do think that this show isn’t as buzzy as other new fare, but it may just be able to win, which would be quite exciting and well-deserved.

Curb Your Enthusiasm
“The Five-Foot Fence,” “The Watermelon,” “IRASSHAIMASE!,” “What Have I Done?,” “Igor, Gregor, and Timor,” “The Mormon Advantage”
I’m frustrated that this show is here since it feels like merely a tag-on, nominated for just four prizes total over fare that deserved to be here more like “The Great.” I’m also still bitter that this season wasn’t set during the pandemic, since I very much wanted to see that. Despite its insanely erratic airing schedule, this show has managed to get nominated for every season since its second. It had some strong points but ultimately wasn’t all that superb in season eleven, and I think it’s in dead last for a potential win.

Hacks
“There Will Be Blood,” “Quid Pro Quo,” “The Captain’s Wife,” “Retired,” “The Click,” “The One, The Only”
This is the second consecutive nomination for a show that I believe likely came in second for this prize last year and may have a shot at taking it home this time around. It added two bids to its nomination total this year, tying for the third-most nominated show overall, which is pretty great (four guest actress mentions is also quite impressive). Season two was fantastic, and this show only has upwards to go as it continues. I’m not sure it has as wide an audience as its main competition, but its creative team and cast are delightful, and wins for writing and directing last year suggest it has the right kind of fans.

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
“Everything Is Bellmore,” “Interesting People on Christopher Street,” “How to Chew Quietly and Influence People,” “Maisel vs. Lennon: The Cut Contest,” “Ethan…Esther…Chaim,” “How Do You Get to Carnegie Hall?”
This show took a big cut in terms of total nominations, dropping down from its season two and three hauls of twenty to a series low of twelve. While it’s lost considerable buzz since premiering strongly and winning this prize for season one, I think it’s still as good as ever. It opted not to submit the first two of its eight episodes for consideration, but while it has a shot at winning for its upcoming final season if it’s well-enough received, it really doesn’t have any shot at triumphing this time.

Only Murders in the Building
“True Crime,” “How Well Do You Know Your Neighbors,” “The Boy from 6B,” “Fan Fiction,” “Double Time,” “Open and Shut”
This freshman series got off to a great start tied as the third-most-nominated series with seventeen bids, covering a range of categories. It’s definitely a popular and well-reviewed show, one that has already finished airing its second season and been renewed for a third. It definitely has multiple pathways to winning, especially considering the appeal of its three stars, who all surely have different fanbases. I’m not predicting it to win but I do think it’s definitely a possibility.

Ted Lasso
“Goodbye Earl,” “Do the Right-est Thing,” “Rainbow,” “Man City,” “No Weddings and a Funeral,” “Inverting the Pyramid of Success”
This show is sitting pretty, jumping up from its thirteen nominations last year to twenty this time, tying it for the second-most-nominated series overall this year. While season two wasn’t received with entirely uniform praise, it’s still among the most beloved and appreciated shows, which makes it a good bet to repeat in this category. Its submitted episodes don’t matter much because it does seem like the most watched comedy, and while I’m betting that it’s not going to win again this year, it very likely could.

What We Do in the Shadows
“The Prisoner,” “The Casino,” “The Escape,” “The Wellness Center,” “A Farewell,” “The Portrait”
This show was by no means a sure thing for a repeat nomination after first being nominated two years ago for its most recent season. It jumped from two nominations in season one to eight for season two and now back to seven for season three. While its writing bids are promising and a sign that it’s well-liked – with quite a cult following – but its continued lack of any nominations for its cast members suggests that it doesn’t have the oomph it needs to go the distance. Its fourth season airing during the voting period probably helps, but not enough.

Who should win (based on entire season): “Barry,” “Hacks,” or “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Who should win (based on individual episodes): “Barry,” “Hacks,” or “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Who will win: While “Ted Lasso” is the easy choice and “Only Murders in the Building” and “Hacks” are certainly potential spoilers, I think that Abbott Elementary will claim this prize.

Next up: Best Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Limited or Anthology Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde, Ozark (Pound of Flesh and Still Kickin’) 

This is Bateman’s fourth nomination for this role, back in the running after the show’s hiatus last season. His show is also over now, and he just has a win for directing from several years ago. Bateman is certainly excellent but his show didn’t deliver big numbers in terms of nominations. If he was going to win, another year seems like it would have been better, but the lack of a clear frontrunner in him scoring a victory.

Brian Cox as Logan Roy, Succession (All the Bells Say)
Cox is back after being nominated for season two of his show, when he lost to his costar and onscreen son Jeremy Strong. Cox is formidable in this role, and definitely does some of his best work in the season finale. But Strong was able to defeat him last time and I feel like that might happen again, though it’s always possible that he could win this time around for the definition of scenery-chewing and displaying cruelty.

Lee Jung-jae as Player 456, Squid Game (Gganbu)
This is the first nomination for the South Korean actor, who scored a Screen Actors Guild Award victory over both “Succession” leads. Jung-jae is the most crucial part of this show, and he chose wisely with his submitted episode, which finds him interacting with Player 1 and trying to figure out a way to save a man who has been nothing but kind to him. I think that’s enough to net him the win, even if it’s not a done deal.

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill, Better Call Saul (Plan and Execution)
It’s hard to believe that Odenkirk, who was nominated for the first four seasons of his show, was passed over for an incredible season five. Fortunately, he’s back now for the first half of season six, and while its nomination haul wasn’t all that fantastic, the back half of the season, which will be eligible next year, aired during voting. Given the strong reception that the Hollywood Critics Association gave the show with its TV awards last month, I think Odenkirk has a much better shot than initially expected. His episode submission is also very strong, which doesn’t hurt.

Adam Scott as Mark Scout, Severance (Good News About Hell)
There are many people, myself included, who believe that Scott should have received multiple nominations for his work on “Parks and Recreation. It’s so great to see him honored now for a very different role, or really, two roles, which he plays so marvelously. His show did better than expected with nominations and a win for him would be a huge endorsement of its quality. I think it’s still a bit too under-the-radar, but it is possible that he could upset.

Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy, Succession (Too Much Birthday)
Strong won this award for his show’s second season and now returns for its third. Reports of his method acting being a bit too intense seem not to have deterred voters, and his submitted episode allows him to be even more off-the-wall and invested in his character’s delusions (its title says it all). He managed to beat his costar and onscreen father Brian Cox last time, and he might be able to pull off the same thing again.

Who should win (based on entire season): Odenkirk or Scott
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Odenkirk
Who will win: I think Jung-jae can win this.

Next up: Best Limited or Anthology Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Lead Actress in a Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Rachel Brosnahan as Midge Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (How Do You Get to Carnegie Hall?) Brosnahan is back after winning this prize for her show’s first season in 2018 and earning back-to-back bids after that. Her show received considerably fewer nominations than in the past this year, but Brosnahan is still formidable, especially in the season finale that finds her looking to a new future and a transformed relationship dynamic. This doesn’t feel like her year – a win for the forthcoming final season feels much more likely.

Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues, Abbott Elementary (Pilot)
Brunson is new to this race since her show is also new, but she’s already made quite an impression, picking up bids for writing and producing as well. At the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, she received numerous prizes, and she’s definitely one to watch. As the creative force behind her show, it’s all about her, and I feel like she’s a real threat to win. It’s far from guaranteed, but watch out for her to take this one home.

Kaley Cuoco as Cassie Bowden, The Flight Attendant (Drowning Women)
I previously lamented the fact that Cuoco would always have to compete with an iconic actress like Catherine O’Hara or Jean Smart and would therefore never get to win a very well-deserved prize for an absolutely committed and zany performance. But then her show went ahead and disappeared from almost all other categories, which means that Cuoco, however amazing she is, has virtually no shot, despite an even more enthralling and chaotic turn in season two.

Elle Fanning as Catherine the Great, The Great (Alone at Last)
I was overjoyed to learn that the star of the best comedy series on television had earned an Emmy nomination after being passed over for season one. Unfortunately, she was joined only by her equally phenomenal costar Nicholas Hoult, with the show snubbed in the top race. Fanning is even more wondrous in season two, but no matter how good she is, it’s hard to see her taking this prize with other actresses with better support for their shows in the mix.

Issa Rae as Issa Dee, Insecure (Reunited, Okay?!)
Rae is back with her third bid in five years for this role after being nominated last year for a guest spot on “A Black Lady Sketch Show. For her show’s final season, she’s here without a corresponding Best Comedy Series bid that existed for season four, which means her chances of winning are slim. But I’m sure there are those who would love to reward Rae for great work both in front of and behind the camera, particularly for an episode that gives her great material.

Jean Smart as Deborah Vance, Hacks (The%20Click)
Smart is the defending champion in this race, and her show did pretty formidably all around. While she’s just as good as ever, and her submitted episode finds her spending a delightful night with a younger woman, I was surprised to see that Selena Gomez, who wasn’t nominated at the Emmys, eclipsed her in the corresponding streaming race at the Hollywood Critics Association Awards. While these organizations are not the same thing, it suggests that Smart’s win may have been reward enough, and though she’s still a good bet to repeat, it’s not guaranteed.

Who should win (based on entire season): Fanning or Smart
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Fanning, Smart, or Brosnahan
Who will win: I’m going with Brunson over Smart.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

 
Anthony Carrigan as Noho Hank, Barry (forgiving jeff) 

Carrigan is back for his second nomination after his show took two seasons off, and what a welcome return it is. He’s easily the nicest and most endearing character on his show, and he’s tremendously funny too. While he’s great in the season premiere, I do think he might have a better shot if he had chosen a later episode that gives him some meaty dramatic material too. It’s also hard to see him beating out costar and past winner Henry Winkler, though I would be thrilled. Check out our interview here.

Brett Goldstein as Roy Kent, Ted Lasso (Rainbow) 

Goldstein is the defending champion, back again for portraying the gruffest and grumbliest member of AFC Richmond as he navigates a new career path and an increasingly serious relationship. There’s little to suggest that Goldstein won’t win again since he’s absolutely terrific in the role and everybody seems to like him a lot. He recently took home prizes from the Critics Choice Association and the Hollywood Critics Association, and I think he’s far ahead of the rest of the pack here.

Toheeb Jimon as Sam Obisanya, Ted Lasso (Do the Right-est Thing) 

This is Jimoh’s first nomination after a promotion in screentime from season one of his show to season two. It’s great to see Sam explore the meaning behind his participation in the team and sweet to watch him pursue a romance that most people think could never happen. While it’s easy to like Jimoh and many voters are likely to be compelled by his performance, I don’t think he can eclipse his more prominent costar Brett Goldstein.

Nick Mohammed as Nathan Shelley, Ted Lasso (Inverting the Pyramid of Success)
Mohammed is back for his second consecutive nomination. While he’s great both in real life and on the show, I’m honestly a bit surprised since most people I talk to immediately conflate the performer and the performance, too angry at his character’s behavior to appreciate the quality of the actor. Mohammed is a crucial part of his show but I do think that this nomination is his win given the general perception of his character. Check out our interview here and here.

Tony Shalhoub as Abe Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Everything is Bellmore)
Shalhoub returns to the lineup after previous bids for all three seasons of his show and a win for season two, along with three trophies for his time on “Monk.” Though his show earned considerably fewer nominations than in the past, Shalhoub is as good as ever, particularly in his submitted episode, which finds him making the unfortunate decision to review the production of a family friend. I don’t expect Shalhoub to win this year given his show’s lack of buzz, but he could take this trophy home for the show’s upcoming final season.

Tyler James Williams as Gregory Eddie, Abbott Elementary (Work Family)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Williams, who gets to play the most frequently irritated member of the staff at his show’s title school. While he typically gets lots of chances to roll his eyes at the camera and seem annoyed by every little thing, he takes on a more sentimental part in his submitted episode. His show is definitely popular and seems poised to upset in other categories, but unless it sweeps, I think the chances of Williams winning here are unlikely.

Henry Winkler as Gene Cousineau, Barry (starting now)
Winkler, who had five Emmy nominations for acting between 1976 and 2000, is back after winning for the first season of his show in season one and the next year for season two in 2019. He has a great arc in season three and a particularly astounding role in the season finale, which is his episode submission, but I’m not sure it’s all that humor-laced. But he did win the Hollywood Critics Association prize this past year, which shows that he’s still popular and well-respected, which could lead to another win for the highly-regarded show.

Bowen Yang as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Rami Malek / Young Thug )
Yang is back for his second consecutive nomination, this time the lone representative from his show in this category. While he had a standout scene as the iceberg that sank the Titanic last year, he’s just as memorable in this year’s submitted episode. But it’s hard to judge the quality of his performance alongside the actors playing the same roles all season, and the only actor from his show to win this prize in the past was Alec Baldwin. I don’t think his chances are great.

Who should win (based on entire season): Carrigan or Goldstein
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Winkler
Who will win: I’m betting on Goldstein to repeat.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

 
Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Everything is Bellmore)
Borstein is back after consecutive wins for the first two seasons of her show and a nomination for the third. While the series dropped considerably in its nomination count for season four, her episode submission is an absolute knockout in which she takes over someone else’s funeral to offer her friend a proper sendoff. Statistically speaking, she’s only lost to one person who’s not nominated this time around (Annie Murphy), so it’s definitely possible that she win voters over again.

Hannah Einbinder as Ava Daniels, Hacks (The Captain’s Wife)
Einbinder is back with her second nomination for an inarguably terrific performance that is very arguably a supporting turn. She’s so great that it’s hard to knock her down for being in the wrong category, and she actually pulled off a surprise win with the Hollywood Critics Association, eclipsing another Hannah. It does help that her episode submission shows her having a lot of fun in an unexpected environment, and while I doubt she’ll win, I’d be perfectly happy to see it happen. Check out our interviews here and here.

Janelle James as Ava Coleman, Abbott Elementary (Ava vs. Superintendent)
This is James’ first nomination. She has some truly fantastic dialogue as the self-involved and entirely ineffective elementary school principal who doesn’t take her job seriously at all, and she elevates it to another level entirely. Her submitted episode gives her great material as she tries to put on a serious presentation with a less-than-advisable initial approach, and I think it should be enough to make her a serious contender for the win. She also took home the cable/broadcast prize at the Hollywood Critics Association – could this be next?

Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Natasha Lyonne / Japanese Breakfast)
McKinnon is back for the ninth year in a row, one bid away from recordholders Rhea Perlman and Loretta Swit. Since this is her final year on the show, she won’t be able to match that total. She won previously in 2016 and 2017 back when she was playing Hillary Clinton, and she doesn’t have nearly as much worthwhile material these days. But in her final episode, which is her submission, she does completely own the opening sketch, showing that she’s still got it. A third trophy would be a real surprise, but she’s proven to be popular in the past.

Sarah Niles as Dr. Sharon Fieldstone, Ted Lasso (Headspace)
Niles’ inclusion here comes as somewhat of a surprise since she was the only major new addition to season two and her role isn’t as inherently comedic as her two nominated costars. But Niles is terrific in her role, and she appreciates the chance to find the humor in the more serious moments. It’s hard to imagine her eclipsing Waddingham or Temple, but there is something to her being a moral center for the show. Check out our interview here.

Sheryl Lee Ralph as Barbara Howard, Abbott Elementary (New Tech)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Ralph, who on her show is the experienced, levelheaded mentor for the plucky young teacher played by star and creator Quinta Brunson. There is definitely a reverence for the established and respected actress from the rest of the cast and the industry in general, and while Ralph has the more even-tempered role as compared with costar Janelle James, it’s possible that she could prove popular enough to win, particularly coupled with an endearing episode submission that finds her struggling to acclimate to new technology.

Juno Temple as Keeley Jones, Ted Lasso (Midnight Train to Royston)
Temple is back for her second consecutive nomination, and I had actually predicted her to be cited for the entirely Emmy-ignored “The Offer” also. It’s incredible to see just how naturally Temple interacts with all of her fellow cast members, and she also has some worthwhile relationship material in season two as she navigates her own relationship and fends off attractions from numerous would-be suitors. While I think that Temple is just as good as her costar Hannah Waddingham, voters from multiple groups seem to have more of an affinity for Waddingham.

Hannah Waddingham as Rebecca Welton, Ted Lasso (No Weddings and a Funeral)
Waddingham is the defending champion in this race. She gets very solid material in season two, particularly in her submitted episode, which finds her encountering an unexpected loss and interacting with different figures from her life. Watching her season-long romance with a surprising partner is also fun, and there’s little to suggest that Waddingham doesn’t have at least a decent shot at repeating.

Who should win (based on entire season): Einbinder, Temple, or Waddingham
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Einbinder or Waddingham
Who will win: I’ll give the edge to James even though it could just as easily be Waddingham again.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

 
Murray Bartlett as Armond, Hacks (Recentering) 

This is Bartlett’s first Emmy nomination, and he’s already emerged as a favorite thanks to his wins at the Critics Choice Association and the Hollywood Critics Association. As resort manager Armond, Bartlett is hilarious and committed, locked in battle with one difficult guest – played by fellow nominee Jake Lacy – and engaged in other entertaining confrontations with needy visitors. I think Bartlett is far ahead of the rest of the pack. Check out our interview here.

Jake Lacy as Shane Patton, The White Lotus (New Day) 

This is the first Emmy nomination for Lacy, who does a fantastic job of playing an extremely irritable and entitled resort guest who believes that he should get everything he wants. He has great onscreen interactions with Alexandra Daddario, Molly Shannon, and particularly Murray Bartlett. Though I hadn’t predicted him to be nominated, I’m thrilled that he’s here. The unlikeability of his character, while a direct result of his terrific performance, may be an added impediment to him facing off against his two costars here. Check out our interviews here and here.

Will Poulter as Billy Cutler, Dopesick (Black Box Warning) 

This is Poulter’s first Emmy nomination, and I think that he has one of the most sympathetic and endearing roles on his show as a Purdue Pharma salesman who slowly comes to see the problematic nature of the drugs that he’s selling. His submitted episode finds him confronting that, and while he’s not nearly as well-known as the other actors nominated from his show, he does deliver a great breakout turn that could win him this prize.

Seth Rogen as Rand Gauthier, Pam and Tommy (Seattle)
Rogen, a first-time Emmy acting nominee after previous bids for writing and producing and two producing mentions this year, has the distinction of being the only man representing his show solo in a seven-person race that includes only three shows. As the frustrated and vindictive contractor who makes it his life’s mission for his horrible employer to pay for his mistreatment, Rogen is very much himself. I am surprised that he didn’t go with the first episode of the limited series since that paints him in a far more sympathetic light as his actions, however malicious, are driven by a legitimate desire to get justice. He did beat the “Dopesick” crowd at the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, and so a victory here isn’t out of the question.

Peter Sarsgaard as Rick Mountcastle, Dopesick (The People vs. Purdue Pharma)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Sarsgaard, who is the moral center of his show as the leading prosecutorial force trying to take down Purdue Pharma. It’s easy to get behind the mission he’s on, and the series finale provides a particularly powerful showcase as he is finally able to get somewhere and hinder Purdue’s ability to operate unchecked. It’s definitely possible that he could win, but I think Poulter has the edge out of the men nominated from his show. Check out our interview here.

Michael Stuhlbarg as Richard Sackler, Dopesick (The Whistleblower)
Stuhlbarg was previously nominated in this category for “The Looming Tower.” He would have been a good choice for this race last year for a scenery-chewing performance in “Your Honor,” and now he’s here for portraying the ambitious and aggressive Purdue executive set on profits and success above all else. It’s a chilling turn that shows Stuhlbarg at his least emotive, an impressive and off-putting portrayal that I don’t imagine will win voters over despite its quality.

Steve Zahn as Mark Mossbacher, The White Lotus (Mysterious Monkeys)
This is Zahn’s first Emmy nomination, for portraying what may be the least self-aware character on his show. He gets great screentime with a number of his costars as he spirals down a rabbit hole as his entire identity is put into question. It’s not quite as revelatory as Bartlett’s turn, but I do think that Zahn is well-known and likeable and could attract votes from fans of him and the show. Check out our interview here.

Who should win (based on entire season): Bartlett or Lacy
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Bartlett or Poulter
Who will win: I think Bartlett is far ahead here.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

 
Connie Britton as Nicole Mossbacher, Hacks (The Lotus Eaters) 

Britton has a strong Emmy history despite not yet having secured a win, earning bids for “Friday Night Lights,” “Nashville,” and “American Horror Story.” This character is particularly entitled and prickly, and while her fame could earn her votes, I don’t think she can take down a particular costar. Check out our interview here.

Jennifer Coolidge as Tanya McQuoid, The White Lotus (Mysterious Monkeys) 

This is the first Emmy nomination for Coolidge, who is the true standout of her show as the delightfully detached and excessive Tanya. She’s also the only regular cast member returning for season two, which says something given that it’s an anthology series that’s otherwise unconnected. She won the Hollywood Critics’ Association prize where she was up against a few of her costars, and now she’ll just have to contend with Kaitlyn Dever to see, like in the top categories, which of these two series prevails. Check out our interview here.

Alexandra Daddario as Rachel Patton, The White Lotus (Departures) 

This is Daddario’s first Emmy nomination for playing a new bride who starts to see that life with her husband isn’t what she thought it would be. Daddario has had a number of TV roles before, and it’s great to see her recognized for an involved turn. While I think she would be a great choice for the win, I don’t think her performance is an inherently comic as the others and it would be a true surprise. Check out our interviews here and here.

Kaitlyn Dever as Betsy Mallum, Dopesick (The Whistleblower)
It’s refreshing to see Dever nominated after she was previously passed over for her performance in “Unbelievable.” Her turn as an opioid-addicted West Virginia miner is intense and heartbreaking, and seeing how she begins stealing from her parents and experience withdrawal is a testament to Dever’s talents. She won the Hollywood Critics Association prize when she wasn’t in competition with Jennifer Coolidge, and it’s a question of whether voters will be in the mood to reward superb comedy or superb drama. Check out our interview here.

Natasha Rothwell as Belinda Lindsey, The White Lotus (Departures)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Rothwell, who has the least objectively funny role in her show as one of two main characters who aren’t resort guests but instead employees. Rothwell has some amazing material opposite Jennifer Coolidge and, in her submitted episode, gets to also interact with Alexandra Daddario, refusing to be a token Black voice of wisdom. Her nomination, however deserved, is a bit of a surprise, and it’s hard to imagine her beating out the much more humorous-leaning performances from her costars in this category. Check out our interview here.

Sydney Sweeney as Olivia Mossbacher, The White Lotus (Mysterious Monkeys)
Sweeney is a double nominee this year, also cited for her incredible performance in “Euphoria.” Comparatively, this turn doesn’t hold a candle, and I might have picked her onscreen best friend, Brittany O’Grady, one of just two series regulars from this show not nominated, over her. While she might get some votes because of fans of her other work, she’s also the youngest of the bunch with the least substantial role, so a win seems very out of the question. Check out our interview here.

Mare Winningham as Diane Mallum, Dopesick (Black Box Warning)
Winningham has been nominated seven times before, winning twice, both times in this category, in 1980 and 1998. For this role, which is a relatively small part, she’s up against her onscreen daughter, Kaitlyn Dever. While there is an emotional weight to her performance, particularly as she sees her daughter spiral through addiction and start stealing from her parents, it’s difficult to think that she could eclipse Dever, whose part is much bigger and more emphatic.

Who should win (based on entire season): Coolidge or Dever
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Coolidge or Dever
Who will win: I’m very torn, but I’ll bet on Coolidge over Dever.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

I had the chance to dive deep into this category for The Film Experience – head over there to read my analysis!

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series