Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Rachel Brosnahan as Midge Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (How Do You Get to Carnegie Hall?) Brosnahan is back after winning this prize for her show’s first season in 2018 and earning back-to-back bids after that. Her show received considerably fewer nominations than in the past this year, but Brosnahan is still formidable, especially in the season finale that finds her looking to a new future and a transformed relationship dynamic. This doesn’t feel like her year – a win for the forthcoming final season feels much more likely.

Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues, Abbott Elementary (Pilot)
Brunson is new to this race since her show is also new, but she’s already made quite an impression, picking up bids for writing and producing as well. At the Hollywood Critics Association Awards, she received numerous prizes, and she’s definitely one to watch. As the creative force behind her show, it’s all about her, and I feel like she’s a real threat to win. It’s far from guaranteed, but watch out for her to take this one home.

Kaley Cuoco as Cassie Bowden, The Flight Attendant (Drowning Women)
I previously lamented the fact that Cuoco would always have to compete with an iconic actress like Catherine O’Hara or Jean Smart and would therefore never get to win a very well-deserved prize for an absolutely committed and zany performance. But then her show went ahead and disappeared from almost all other categories, which means that Cuoco, however amazing she is, has virtually no shot, despite an even more enthralling and chaotic turn in season two.

Elle Fanning as Catherine the Great, The Great (Alone at Last)
I was overjoyed to learn that the star of the best comedy series on television had earned an Emmy nomination after being passed over for season one. Unfortunately, she was joined only by her equally phenomenal costar Nicholas Hoult, with the show snubbed in the top race. Fanning is even more wondrous in season two, but no matter how good she is, it’s hard to see her taking this prize with other actresses with better support for their shows in the mix.

Issa Rae as Issa Dee, Insecure (Reunited, Okay?!)
Rae is back with her third bid in five years for this role after being nominated last year for a guest spot on “A Black Lady Sketch Show. For her show’s final season, she’s here without a corresponding Best Comedy Series bid that existed for season four, which means her chances of winning are slim. But I’m sure there are those who would love to reward Rae for great work both in front of and behind the camera, particularly for an episode that gives her great material.

Jean Smart as Deborah Vance, Hacks (The%20Click)
Smart is the defending champion in this race, and her show did pretty formidably all around. While she’s just as good as ever, and her submitted episode finds her spending a delightful night with a younger woman, I was surprised to see that Selena Gomez, who wasn’t nominated at the Emmys, eclipsed her in the corresponding streaming race at the Hollywood Critics Association Awards. While these organizations are not the same thing, it suggests that Smart’s win may have been reward enough, and though she’s still a good bet to repeat, it’s not guaranteed.

Who should win (based on entire season): Fanning or Smart
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Fanning, Smart, or Brosnahan
Who will win: I’m going with Brunson over Smart.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 5/6

This category was announced first so I cheered for Elle Fanning (The Great), and I had hoped this was a sign that her show would do very well, which unfortunately it didn’t. But she’s here over my predicted sixth nominee, Tracee Ellis Ross, whose show was almost entirely ignored. While Selena Gomez was probably a close seventh, she lost out to a different newcomer, Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), whose show I’ll now need to start watching after enjoying the pilot. Last year’s winner Jean Smart (Hacks) is back, as is past winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and a nominee for the final season of her show, Issa Rae (Insecure). I’m not quite sure what the backlash was against the second season of her show, but I’m glad that Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) didn’t get snubbed.

Who should win? Fanning! But Smart and the rest are superb too.
Who will win? I suspect that Smart repeats.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Aidy Bryant, Kaley Cuoco, Allison Janney, Tracee Ellis Ross, Jean Smart

The competition: There are far too many contenders in this race. Last year’s winner Jean Smart (Hacks), is sure to be back, and it’s likely that Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish), in her show’s final season, and Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant), in her show’s second, will be too. Past nominees who are newly eligible include Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Issa Rae (Insecure), and Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll), as well as others who at one point were nominated, like Pamela Adlon (Better Things), Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie), and Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie). Sarah Jessica Parker (And Just Like That) was nominated for the same role before, and Vanessa Bayer (I Love That For You), Rose Byrne (Physical), and Sandra Oh (The Chair) all have previous Emmy nominations for other shows. While Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows), Lily Collins (Emily in Paris), Anna Konkle (Pen15), and Maya Erskine (Pen15) may have seemed like strong contenders based on their shows’ strong Emmy receptions last time they were eligible, that enthusiasm will likely go instead to Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) and Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building). Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) might have had a shot if not for having to compete against herself, Hailee Steinfeld (Hawkeye). I’d love to see Bridgett Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Ophelia Lovibond (Minx), Rose McIver (Ghosts), or Cecily Strong (Schmigadoon), but I doubt they’ll be able to score enough votes, and I’m so sad that Elle Fanning (The Great) is far from a sure thing.

The predicted nominees: Rachel Brosnahan, Quinta Brunson, Kaley Cuoco, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross, Jean Smart

The predicted winner: I think Smart wins again.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

I've had the pleasure of covering some of the Emmy races for Awards Radar this year. Click here to read my detailed analysis and predictions for this category.

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 4/6, missing Bryant and Janney

My happiest moment of the day was seeing Aidy Bryant (Shrill) announced as a nominee for a fantastic and underrated turn and show. I’m less excited about Allison Janney (Mom), whose show I don’t watch, especially since it means that Jane Levy missed out. I’m glad that Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) got in since her show didn’t do all that spectacularly compared to how it could have done, and I’m also happy to see the likely winner of this race, Jean Smart (Hacks). Rounding out the category is Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish), whose show I never mind watching every year at Emmy time.

Who should win? Bryant, Cuoco, or Smart
Who will win? This is going to be Smart.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 13th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Christina Applegate, Rachel Brosnahan, Linda Cardellini, Catherine O’Hara, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross

The competition: Only one of last year’s nominees is eligible again this year, and that’s Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish), who, despite missing out on a nomination two years ago, is pretty likely to be back. The two surest things are Jean Smart (Hacks) and Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant), two freshman series stars who will duke it out for the win. After that, things get less certain. Maya Erskine (Pen15) and Anna Konkle (Pen15) earned a writing nomination for their show the last time it was eligible, and so it’s probable that season two might be even better received especially in light of less competition. Renée Elise Goldsberry (Girls5eva) and Sara Bareilles (Girls5eva) are late-breaking entries to this category who are benefiting from their show’s current popularity. Allison Janney (Mom) earned three nominations in the supporting category and two in this category, including two wins, and though she was last nominated in 2018, she could be back. Lena Waithe (Master of None), Cristin Milioti (Made for Love), and Mayim Bialik (Call Me Kat) are all possibilities for shows that weren’t entirely positively received, and there’s also Lily Collins (Emily in Paris), a Golden Globe nominee whose show placed there under questionable circumstances. I would be ecstatic if either Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) or Aidy Bryant (Shrill) cracked this category since both of their shows are inexplicably flying under the radar when it comes to awards. And then there’s Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist), who was looking great for a nomination before her show got cancelled. I think it’s still possible that she makes the cut, but I’m definitely nervous about it.

The predicted nominees: Cuoco, Goldsberry, Levy, Ross, Smart

The predicted winner: This feels like the moment for Smart to win again.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

This is the fourth category of the 14th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2019-2020 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Last year’s nominees: Christina Applegate, Rachel Brosnahan, Regina Hall, Emmy Rossum, Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Emmy nominees: Christina Applegate, Rachel Brosnahan, Linda Cardellini, Catherine O’Hara, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross

Finalists: Andy Allo (Upload), Issa Rae (Insecure), Daisy Haggard (Breeders), Ginnifer Goodwin (Why Women Kill), Abby McEnany (Work in Progress), Aidy Bryant (Shrill), Pamela Adlon (Better Things), Lucy Liu (Why Women Kill), Zoe Kravitz (High Fidelity)

The nominees:
Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)
Elle Fanning (The Great
Merritt Wever (Run)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
The winner:

Esther Smith (Trying) brought remarkable sweetness and generosity to Nikki, a woman whose desire to be a parent never outweighed the compassion she felt to anyone else in her life.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

I've had the pleasure of covering some of the Emmy races for The Film Experience this year. Click here to read my detailed analysis and predictions for this category.

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 5/6, missing Ellis Ross

After a year off, Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) returns to the line-up, beating out Pamela Adlon (Better Things) and two choices I’m very sad didn’t make the cut, Merritt Wever (Run) and Elle Fanning (The Great). I’m relieved that Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me) wasn’t snubbed since she really was the MVP of her season, joining returning costar Christina Applegate (Dead to Me). I’m thrilled Issa Rae (Insecure) is back, along with her show in the top race, and no one is surprised by rival frontrunners Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek). I might include a few more fantastic performances from this past season, but this list features some real talent.

Who should win? Rae or Cardellini
Who will win? I think O’Hara is far ahead in this race.

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

This is the fourth category of the 13th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2018-2019 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Last year’s nominees: Jessica Barden, Kristen Bell, Rachel Brosnahan, Issa Rae, Alia Shawkat

Emmy nominees: Christina Applegate, Rachel Brosnahan, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Natasha Lyonne, Catherine O’Hara, Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Finalists: Kristen Bell (The Good Place), Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin), Geraldine Viswanathan (Miracle Workers), Issa Rae (Insecure), Desiree Akhavan (The Bisexual)

The nominees:
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Regina Hall (Black Monday)
Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
Emmy Rossum (Shameless)

The winner:

Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) was tremendously watchable in every scene as she found a new obsession and discovered very surprising possibilities she didn’t know existed.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Christina Applegate as Jen, Dead to Me (I’ve Gotta Get Away)
Applegate was nominated twice before in this category for “Samantha Who” and twice in the guest actress race for “Friends,” winning the latter in 2003. Now she’s back as the lone representative of her show, playing a mother whose husband was killed in a hit-and-run. It’s a fierce, formidable performance, and her submission of a middle episode in which she gets to be angry and also explore her feelings in a more mellow environment could encourage some voters to pick her in a very crowded category that she’s highly unlikely to win.

Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Midnight at the Concord)
Brosnahan won the Emmy for this role last year after a previous nomination for guest-starring on “House of Cards.” She’s won two consecutive Golden Globes as well as the SAG Award. Submitting an episode from halfway through the season might have seemed like a risk, but this is a big, superb hour that has her flirting, performing, and getting shocked by something she definitely didn’t expect to happen. She’d be a solid bet to repeat, but for a returning six-time winner who wasn’t in the running last year…

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Veep)
Louis-Dreyfus is back in this race after her show took a year off following six consecutive wins for playing the eternally angry vice-president. Additionally, she was nominated four times for “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and seven times for “Seinfeld,” winning once for each show. Submitting the series finale was the obvious choice since it wraps up her storyline, and ranks about on par with most of her submissions from previous years. Her show didn’t perform spectacularly overall, but she should never be counted out, especially since she has yet to lose this award for this role.

Natasha Lyonne as Nadia Vulvokov, Russian Doll (Nothing in This World Is Easy)
Lyonne was previously nominated for guest acting on “Orange is the New Black” and contends both as a producer and writer for her show this year. Playing a thirty-year-old woman who keeps dying over and over on her birthday feels like a natural fit for the sarcastic actress, and she excels at it. Submitting the pilot was the smartest idea since it’s the introduction to her character and this Groundhog Day experience. She’s a fun choice, to be sure, but a win would be highly surprising.

Catherine O’Hara as Moira Rose, Schitt’s Creek (The Crowening)
O’Hara was previously nominated for her performance “Temple Grandin” and received five nominations as part of the writing team for “SCTV Network,” winning once in 1982. Her show earned its first Emmy nominations for its fifth season, and O’Hara submitted the season premiere, which finds her filming a horrible movie and trying hard to get into character in a project that she wants to believe is better than it is. O’Hara and the show have an enormous fan base, but pulling off a win for this wild character seems tough to near impossible.

Phoebe Waller-Bridge as Fleabag, Fleabag (Episode 2.1)
This is Waller-Bridge’s first acting nomination. She was up for writing “Killing Eve” last year and contends now as a producer on both shows and for writing her submitted episode of this show. Her submission of the season premiere, which I thought was the best episode and is also nominated for directing and writing, was brilliant, and it’s a wonderful way for first-time voters to see how incredible she is. If Brosnahan and Louis-Dreyfus cancel each other out, she’ll be the winner, but it’s a stretch.

Who should win (based on entire season): Waller-Bridge, Brosnahan, or Applegate
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Waller-Bridge, Brosnahan, or Applegate
Who will win: I really want to be bold and pick Waller-Bridge to upset (and may still change my mind before next week), but for now, I’m staying safe with Louis-Dreyfus for a seventh time.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 5/6, missing O’Hara

I, like everyone else, did not foresee Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek) cracking this list, but I’ll be sure to check out the show. I’m surprised that Pamela Adlon didn’t make the cut when many expected her show, which was shut out, to earn a bid for Best Comedy Series. Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll) scored, as did her show in a really big way. I guess I’ll have to keep watching after the first episode. Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) also has reason to celebrate, and I really need to watch the second season of her show after loving the first. I’m ecstatic about Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) making the cut, and I wish Linda Cardellini was here with her too. None of these nominees matter too much since it should still be a battle between last year’s winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and six-time consecutive winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep). I like all these nominees even if I might have included a few other names.

Who should win? I haven’t watched enough of half of these nominees, so I’ll hold off judgment until I see more. I don’t think Louis-Dreyfus needs to win again though.
Who will win? I’m still going to bet on Louis-Dreyfus even though Brosnahan might be a smarter choice given her show’s overall performance.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 16th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Pamela Adlon, Rachel Brosnahan, Allison Janney, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin

The competition: Unlike the corresponding drama race, all six of last year’s nominees are eligible, as are three others from the year before and a few new contenders. Last year’s winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and six-time consecutive champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep), returning after a year off for the final season of her show, are guaranteed to make the cut and will go head-to-head for the win. Of the other five nominees from last year, Pamela Adlon (Better Things) seems surest to return as acclaim for her show only grows. Allison Janney (Mom), Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie), and Issa Rae (Insecure) are all lone honorees from their shows, which makes them easy to forget, while Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) may not find her show well-regarded forever. Two women last nominated two years ago, Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) and Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) were nominated, and they could just as easily end up on the list this year too. Both Debra Messing (Will and Grace) and Candice Bergen (Murphy Brown) won this award during the original incarnations of their shows, and they surely have fans who might want to honor them again, though Bergen’s chances may be lower given the short-lived nature of her series’ comeback. A number of acclaimed actresses who have had Emmy buzz in the past that has yet to lead to a nomination could make the cut this year, including Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin), Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend), Emmy Rossum (Shameless), Kristen Bell (The Good Place), and Alison Brie (GLOW). Even likelier than most of those is Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag), who gets a boost from being the creator of drama hit “Killing Eve.” New contenders include Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll), whose show seems to be very popular, Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) and Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me), who might have a tougher time getting in because they’re both in the same category, Regina Hall (Black Monday), who deserves this just as much as her more famous costar Don Cheadle, and Aidy Bryant (Shrill) and Maya Rudolph (Forever), two “Saturday Night Live” veterans who earned separate nominations last year that might also repeat this time. This is the most competitive category this year as far as I can tell, and there are so many possible lineups that could result.

The predicted nominees: Adlon, Applegate, Brosnahan, Louis-Dreyfus, Lyonne, Waller-Bridge

The predicted winner: A farewell to Louis-Dreyfus or a repeat for Brosnahan? I envision the former even if I’d rather see the latter.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

This is the fourth category of the 12th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2017-2018 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Last year’s nominees: Kristen Bell, Ellie Kemper, Leighton Meester, Issa Rae, Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Emmy nominees: Pamela Adlon, Rachel Brosnahan, Allison Janney, Issa Rae, Tracie Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin

Finalists: Andrea Savage (I'm Sorry), Rose McIver (iZombie), Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin), Drew Barrymore (Santa Clarita Diet), Natalie Zea (The Detour), Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend)

The nominees:
Jessica Barden (The End of the F***ing World)
Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
Alia Shawkat (Search Party)
Issa Rae (Insecure)

The winner:

Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) was singularly full of fast-talking energy and spirit, encapsulating her entire show with her social graces and wit.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Pamela Adlon as Sam Fox, Better Things (Eulogy)
This is Adlon’s second consecutive nomination for this role. She was previously nominated for guest-starring on “Louie” in 2015 and won for her voice-over performance on “King of the Hill” in 2002. As with last year, she’s the lone nominee from her show. Her submitted episode finds her contemplating the banality of her work and the meaning of her life, and it’s a great showcase that, in another year, might make her a legitimate contender. I just don’t think her show is high-profile enough for her to score a win.

Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Thank You and Good Night)
Brosnahan was nominated for guest-starring on “House of Cards” three years ago. She won both the Golden Globe and the BFCA Award earlier this year for her portrayal of a 1950s housewife trying to make it as a stand-up comedian. Her submission of the season finale is an interesting choice since it’s not the opening hour that truly shows her potential, but I think it’s a smart choice and she shouldn’t have too much trouble taking home this award with its six-time consecutive champ out of the running.

Allison Janney as Bonnie Plunkett, Mom (Phone Confetti and a Wee Dingle)
Recently minted Oscar winner Janney is on her fourteenth Emmy nomination. She has four wins for “The West Wing,” one for “Masters of Sex,” and two for this role in the supporting category. This is her second consecutive bid in this race. I’d actually argue that this is Janney’s best submission in a few years, giving her a chance to spew off some comedy and build a good relationship in the process after being arrested. She’s an easy default vote for anyone who’s not into the other choices, but I don’t think she’ll win this year.

Issa Rae as Issa Dee, Insecure (Hella Great)
I couldn’t be more excited about the inclusion of Rae, a first-time Emmy nominee, here after her omission in season one. I wrote in my review of the season two premiere, her selected episode, that she had an amazing showcase in the opening scene, and this is a superb choice of an installment to show to voters. Unfortunately, I think that her nomination is her win this year, though you never know.

Tracee Ellis Ross as Rainbow Johnson, Black-ish (Elder. Scam.)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Ross, whose costar Anthony Anderson and her show are also nominated. Ross’ episode last year was pretty terrific, and in this year’s she doesn’t play nearly a prominent a role, shining in one scene but barely appearing in the rest of the episode in a substantial way. I’d be shocked if she won, though she did pull off a surprise victory at the Golden Globes in 2017, so she obviously has some supporters.

Lily Tomlin as Frankie, Grace and Frankie (The Home)
This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Tomlin, who has six previous wins, all not for acting. Last year, she was joined by costar Jane Fonda, but now she’s back on her own. Her submission of the season finale, in which Frankie and Grace realize where they’re going to have to end up, is a good one, but at this point I feel like Tomlin is just a default nominee, not a legitimate contender for the win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Brosnahan
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Brosnahan, Rae, or Adlon
Who will win: I think that Brosnahan is far ahead enough to win this without much competition.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 4/6, picking Alison Brie and Debra Messing over Adlon and Rae

One of my cheers today was for Issa Rae (Insecure), who showed up with a surprise nomination today given no enthusiasm anywhere else for her show. It’s a well-deserved inclusion. Though I don’t watch her show, it’s a shame that Brie didn’t get nominated when her show picked up ten nominations. Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) was a sure thing, and her show performed pretty much as well as expected. The other four nominees are all back from last year, with just one of them nominated along with her show, Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish). Pamela Adlon (Better Things) managed a repeat nomination for her show, along with Allison Janney (Mom) and Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie).

Who should win? I don’t watch Ross or Janney’s shows regularly, but Brosnahan is the clear pick here, even though Rae winning would be exciting too.
Who will win? Without Brie in the race, I think that Brosnahan can officially become the first new winner in this category in a number of years thanks to Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ absence.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Pamela Adlon, Jane Fonda, Allison Janney, Ellie Kemper, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tracee Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin

The competition: The only one of last year’s seven nominees who won’t be back this year is the six-time defending champ Louis-Dreyfus, who won’t be back for the final season of her show until 2019. Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) seems like the safest bet to return aside from Allison Janney (Mom), who took home two awards in the supporting category for this role and shows no signs of slowing down with her prospective second consecutive bid in this race. Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) joined Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) for the first time in this field last year, and the two could just as easily be left off as they could return. Pamela Adlon (Better Things), the newest addition to this race, might be back for season two if voters are still excited about her show, which I think they are. Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) seems vulnerable because her show wasn’t renewed, and the first half of the last season premiered right at the end of the eligibility period, which might actually help since it’s fresh in voters’ minds. Roseanne Barr (Roseanne) might have been a frontrunner a month or two ago, but there’s no way she’s going to be nominated now. Another revival star, Debra Messing (Will and Grace), stands a much better shot. Joining the race is Golden Globe winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), whose omission would be a real shock. Other new contenders include Alison Brie (GLOW), who scored both Golden Globe and SAG bids, and Frankie Shaw (SMILF), who netted a Globe nod. Could season two be the charm for Issa Rae (Insecure) or Kristen Bell (The Good Place)? I’d hope so, but I’m not optimistic.

The predicted nominees: Brie, Brosnahan, Janney, Messing, Ross, Tomlin

The predicted winner: I think that Brosnahan takes it.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

This is the fourth category of the 11th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2016-2017 season. Finalists and semi-finalists are included to recognize more of the impressive work done on television today. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Last year’s nominees: Rachel Blanchard, Rachel Bloom, Priscilla Faia, Michaela Watkins, Natalie Zea

Emmy nominees: Pamela Adlon, Jane Fonda, Allison Janney, Ellie Kemper, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tracie Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin

Semi-finalists: Amanda Peet (Brockmire), Ana Gasteyer (People of Earth), Drew Barrymore (Santa Clarita Diet), Elizabeth Gillies (Sex and Drugs and Rock and Roll), Emmy Rossum (Shameless), Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep), Lena Dunham (Girls), Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie), Mireille Enos (The Catch), Pamela Adlon (Better Things), Priscilla Faia (You, Me, Her), Rachel Blanchard (You, Me, Her), Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce)

Finalists: They’re not pictured, but I have to acknowledge the singular commitments to comedy made by Alia Shawkat (Search Party) and Aya Cash (You're the Worst) this past year. Natalie Zea (The Detour) got a bigger backstory and only became more appealing in her outspoken boldness. Rose McIver (iZombie) was entertaining as ever in her many different brain-addled orientations. Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin) struggled to hold it together in the face of much adversity and remained charming and lovable throughout. Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) went even more off the deep end in season two, singing her way through all of her zaniness. Michaela Watkins (Casual) tried hard to become an adult while raising one and continued to encounter plenty of hurdles.

The nominees:

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) was at her spunkiest, embracing the idea of being a human task rabbit with all of its gusto as she learned so many new things about the world. Issa Rae (Insecure) was a fiery, individualistic protagonist putting on a decent front that she knew what she was doing. Kristen Bell (The Good Place) was great at playing a terrible person who, despite her best efforts, actually turned into an okay human being. Leighton Meester (Making History) was the embodiment of time-displaced joy, enjoying the simple wonders of life like ice cream and something closer to gender equality than existed in revolutionary times.

The winner:

Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) was instantly fantastic as an aptly-named protagonist devoid of typical emotions who was so much more complicated and magnificent than she initially seemed.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Pamela Adlon as Sam Fox, Better Things (Future Fever)
Adlon was nominated two years ago for guest-starring on “Louie” and now stars in her own show, which managed to be remembered by Emmy voters despite airing early last fall. Adlon’s submitted episode finds Sam trying her best to juggle being a mom, frequently being inappropriate and pretty funny in the process. Adlon would be a cool choice here, and I’m sure she’ll get some votes. Her show has no other support, though, which is a shame, so I don’t know if she can pull it off.

Jane Fonda as Grace Hanson, Grace and Frankie (The Pot)
Two-time Oscar winner Fonda joins costar Tomlin, who is on her third nomination, in this race for the first time for her portrayal of the less bohemian of two divorced women in their seventies who live together following their coming out and subsequent marriage of their husbands. Fonda won an Emmy back in 1984 for her performance in the TV movie “The Dollmaker” and was nominated twice recently for guest-starring on “The Newsroom.” While marijuana usage in comedies is usually a slippery slope to stupidity, in this case seeing the very buttoned-up, serious Grace use “the pot” is a true delight. It’s good that she’s here, but I think voters still prefer Tomlin, and neither of them will be able to beat the younger blood with these episodes.

Allison Janney as Bonnie, Mom (Tush Push and Some Radishes)
Janney is an Emmy powerhouse. This is her thirteenth nomination, and she’s won seven times, two of which have been for this role. More importantly, this is her first time contending in the lead comedy race, and when she was similarly promoted for “The West Wing” fifteen years ago, she won two out of four times following two wins in the supporting category. I don’t think Janney really compares to the others in this race for this particular performance, but another episode about dealing with her absentee mother and the very unique way in which she reacts to that is sure to garner a few votes from eager devotees of this do-no-wrong comedienne.

Ellie Kemper as Kimmy Schmidt, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Kimmy Goes to College)
This is Kemper’s second consecutive nomination after being snubbed for the first year of her show. I’m a huge fan of hers and think that this was her best year on the air yet, and her submission is dynamite. There’s no better fit than Kimmy Schmidt to be a taskrabbit, and Kemper did a spectacular job owning the entire episode. I don’t think her show will ever be one that really wins awards, but how awesome would it be if she did?

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Groundbreaking)
This is Louis-Dreyfus’ eighteenth career nomination, and she’s the five-time defending champion in this race, which would make a sixth win historic. Her show is up to seventeen nominations this year, and it has won Best Comedy Series the past two years. I don’t think any of the competition, including promoted past winner Janney, are strong enough to take her down, especially considering her submission of the season finale, which includes flashbacks and puts her on a surprising course to success. I think she’s going to take number six.

Tracee Ellis Ross as Rainbow Johnson, Black-ish (Being Bow-Racial)
Ross was nominated last year and, earlier this year, won the Golden Globe on her first try against some pretty steady competition. Ross’ submission finds her contemplating her biracial heritage, tying into the show’s main themes of being intolerant when you’re the one often targeted by intolerance. Ross is funny and this half-hour highlights her well. There are a lot of women in this category, and even though Louis-Dreyfus has won five Emmys and no Golden Globes for this role, Ross is still the only one who has defeated her in competition like this.

Lily Tomlin as Frankie Bergstein, Grace and Frankie (The Burglary)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Tomlin. She has six previous wins, none of which are for acting. She’s joined by costar Jane Fonda for the first time this year, and her submission is just as good if not better. Frankie’s reaction to the fact that her roommate owns a gun is one of complete hysteria, and it only gets worse when she directs that energy towards anyone with a gun. It’s a great choice, though I think that Fonda’s presence in the category is likely to take votes away from her.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kemper
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Kemper, Tomlin, Fonda, or Louis-Dreyfus
Who will win: I think it’s going to be Louis-Dreyfus again, though I guess Adlon, Ross, or Janney could upset, in that order.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

My predictions: 5/7, picking Issa Rae over Adlon and Fonda

I’m over the snubs of CW show stars since I expected those fully, and therefore the only disappointment was the omission of Issa Rae, an actress I thought had a good shot here. Instead, we saw another fun pick, Pamela Adlon (Better Things), who I had completely forgotten about since her show aired so many months ago. I like here and think it’s a good role, so I’m happy about that. Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) also got to join her costar Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie), earning her first nomination, for the show’s third season. Allison Janney (Mom) got promoted from the supporting category, joining returning nominees Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish), Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep). This list doesn’t look much like mine will, but it’s a decent lineup.

Who should win? I don’t watch Janney’s show. I think I’d vote for Kemper at this point.
Who will win? I’m disappointed to say that Louis-Dreyfus is all but guaranteed to triumph again.