Emmy Winner Predictions

Okay, so the Emmys are tonight. I didn’t do all that well in my predictions for the categories that have been announced thus far, getting just 1/4 in the guest acting races. As expected, Alexis Bledel triumphed for “The Handmaid’s Tale,” while Gerald McRaney won for “This Is Us.” And both Dave Chappelle, who I had in second place, and Melissa McCarthy, who I should have predicted, took home comedy honors for “Saturday Night Live,” indicating strong support for the late-night sketch series. These categories don’t usually honor the fan favorite or the best performance, and I think overall that worked out better this year.

This is a big year for the Emmys, with five new shows contending for Best Drama Series and last year’s winner out of the running, and a hip new comedy threatening to take down the two-time champ for Best Comedy Series. Having just caught up on two of the most buzzed-about series, “Stranger Things” and “The Crown,” I can say that, while I think that “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Westworld” are two of the top five dramas of the year, I’d be okay with “Stranger Things” winning because I understand the appeal. I would, not however, be pleased if “This Is Us” takes it since I don’t feel it’s anywhere near the caliber of the other nominees. It also saddens me that “Westworld” apparently has no shot even though it’s the most-nominated series and also one of the best. The real question is whether Ron Cephas Jones can beat John Lithgow and if Thandie Newton can beat Chrissy Metz and Millie Bobby Brown. I’m saying yes on both with the expectation that I might be wrong. I’m not pulling especially for any of the nominees aside from Newton since I think she’s so deserving, and I’d also prefer Elisabeth Moss over Claire Foy. On the comedy side of things, I am strongly of the belief that “Atlanta” won’t win the top two prizes. I’m sticking with Jeffrey Tambor for Best Actor even though I have a sneaking suspicion that Anthony Anderson will upset due to his episode submission. I think that Baldwin and McKinnon are solidly ahead of their competition, and the directing and writing prizes seem somewhat sewn up as well.

I didn’t offer official predictions in the limited series and TV movie categories, but since I did watch “Big Little Lies,” “Fargo,” and “The Night Of,” as well as the pilot episodes of “Feud: Bette and Joan” and “Genius,” I have more knowledge in those races than I’ve had in years. It would be nice to see Riz Ahmed rewarded for his performance in “The Night Of,” though I’m actually pulling for Bill Camp, who I noted as the MVP of the show, to win in the supporting actor race, where Alexander Skarsgard, also a solid performer, is expected to prevail for “Big Little Lies.” If I had to choose between Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon, I’d pick Witherspoon, and between Laura Dern and Shailene Woodley, I’d pick Woodley, though most prognosticators are going with the opposite. I didn’t love any of the three miniseries seasons mentioned above, and I can’t believe that Mary Elizabeth Winstead isn’t nominated for her work on “Fargo.” I’ll be paying attention to these categories more than I do usually, but I’m still in this for the drama and comedy series.

As always, I’m excited for the show, and will post some brief reactions either immediately afterwards or the next morning. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.

No guts, no glory:
Ann Dowd wins for “The Handmaid’s Tale”

DRAMA SERIES:
Stranger Things

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Thandie Newton (Westworld)

DRAMA DIRECTING:
Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers (Stranger Things)

DRAMA WRITING:
Offred (The Handmaid’s Tale)

COMEDY SERIES:
Veep

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)

COMEDY DIRECTING:
B.A.N. (Atlanta)

COMEDY WRITING:
Thanksgiving (Master of None)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

ATLANTA
“B.A.N.,” “The Big Bang,” “The Jacket,” “Streets on Lock,” “The Streisand Effect,” “Value”

Last year’s Golden Globe winner for Best Comedy Series didn’t even earn any Emmy nominations, and now this year’s is up for the top prize as well as Best Actor, directing, and two writing entries. I’m not nearly as fond of this show as many others are, and the best of these six episodes is “Value,” which takes a step back from what it’s centered on and makes a decent point about society. “The Streisand Effect” was also a more fun episode. “The Big Bang” and “Streets on Lock” served as the two-part pilot and “The Jacket” was the season finale, and they do a good job bookending this season and showing what it’s about. I really wasn’t a fan of “B.A.N.” which is also up for directing and writing and creates a far too literal parody, but clearly Emmy voters loved it. I don’t think this show is in the same league - or maybe category - as the others here, but it’s possible that it could win just like it did at the Globes. I wouldn’t count on it though.

BLACK-ISH
“Being Bow-racial,” “40 Acres and a Vote,” “God,” “Lemons,” “The Name Game,” “One Angry Man”

This is the second nomination in this category for this show and my second year watching a handful of episodes. I’d say these six are on par with last year’s, with “Lemons” as the obvious standout due to its election theme and its selection by Anthony Anderson and Wanda Sykes as their submissions. These comedic episodes do feel politically relevant, covering the right to vote, mixed heritage, religion, babies, and the justice system in America. Is this show strong enough to knock out all of its competition? Surely not. But it’s a fun inclusion, and Anderson may well win in his category..


MASTER OF NONE
“The Dinner Party,” “First Date,” “New York, I Love You,” “Religion,” “Thanksgiving,” “The Thief”

I really like this show, but I can’t believe that “Amarsi Un Po,” which I found to be incredible, wasn’t submitted. I guess it’s because that would have counted as two episodes, but where’s the season finale, which was also great? I loved “First Date” and thought that “Religion” was a serious improvement on the overrated season one episode “Parents.” The season premiere, “The Thief,” was terrific, and that paired with “First Date” would probably make me vote for this show over many others. “The Dinner Party” is fine, but not in the same league as the rest. The two most highly-talked about episodes of the season, “Thanksgiving” and “New York, I Love You,” are here, and I appreciate the first but didn’t love the latter, which I found to be less poignant than episodes focused on the actual characters. This show may never return for season three, and I’d be shocked if these episodes were enough to give it the win this year.


MODERN FAMILY
“The Alliance,” “Five Minutes,” “The Graduates,” “Pig Moon Rising,” “Ringmaster Keifth,” “Weathering Heights”

This show is here for an unbelievable - and undeserved - eighth time after winning five consecutive trophies for its first five seasons. I gave up on this show back in December, and therefore I had to sit down to watch four of the episodes just recently. The highest grade I gave to any of these installments was a B-, and only “Five Minutes” showed any glimmer of what this show used to be like back when it was great. I’m surprised that this show is even still here, and it’s not worth delving into its repetitive nature (read the individual reviews for that). This show doesn’t have a shot at all, and those involved should feel lucky that it’s even here at all.

SILICON VALLEY
“Customer Service,” “Hooli-Con,” “The Keenan Vortex,” “Server Error,” “Success Failure,” “Terms of Service”

I really liked this season of this show. I feel like it’s very highly-regarded but it’s managed to win just two technical trophies out of twenty-three nominations over the past four years. Every installment submitted this year represents the completely awesome and hilarious cyclical nature of the tech industry, with fortunes changing tremendously over the course of just one half-hour. I don't think this show has any momentum to win, and it's doomed to countless nominations and no major trophies for the rest of its run.

UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT
“Kimmy Gets Divorced,” “Kimmy’s Roommate Lemonades,” “Kimmy is a Feminist,” “Kimmy Does a Puzzle,” “Kimmy Pulls Off a Heist,” “Kimmy Googles the Internet”

This is the third consecutive nomination for this show, which has yet to win an Emmy in any category. Season three was actually great, which is why I don't understand the submission of the first two episodes, which were weaker in my mind. The other four are all very solid, highlighted by hijinks to use a gas station bathroom without paying, fearing the Internet, joint consent, and eating Dionne Warwick, part of what convinced me that this show has gotten better, but ultimately this show doesn't stand a chance of winning despite succeeding as an absurdist parody of society.

VEEP
“Blurb,” “Georgia,” “Groundbreaking,” “Justice,” “Omaha,” “A Woman First”

This show is back for its sixth consecutive nomination after two back-to-back wins. I didn't love season five, and I'm pleased to say that these submissions are all great, representative of a strong season six. I especially appreciate the focus of two of these on Jonah's fight against Daylight Saving Time, and the focus on elections and rumors works very well. I don't see why this show wouldn't be propelled to a threepeat.

What should win (based on entire season): None of these make my list, but "Silicon Valley" would probably be my pick.
What should win (based on individual episodes): Either "Silicon Valley" or "Veep" would be fine by me.
What will win: Let's start by counting out "Modern Family," "Silicon Valley," and "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt." I don't think "Master of None" can pull off a win, and I'm not sure "Black-ish" is strong enough either. That leaves the Golden Globe winner, "Atlanta," and two-time defending champ "Veep." Actually, only two Globe winners in the past fifteen years, went on to win the top Emmy, and those were juggernauts "30 Rock" and "Modern Family." I'm going to stay conservative and opt for Veep to score another win.

Next up: That’s a wrap!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BETTER CALL SAUL
“Chicanery,” “Fall,” “Lantern,” “Mabel,” “Off Brand,” “Witness”

This is the third nomination for a show that I thought might be cast off this year because it’s not new and hot, but, lo and behold, it’s back. There’s no way it will win simply because its buzz isn’t strong enough anymore. Even in the event of a vote-split, I can’t imagine it. The selections this year include the first two episodes, the last two, the one that features Chuck’s fall from grace and the one after it which shows Jimmy trying to jump-start his new career right away. This wasn’t the strongest season of the show, but the season premiere was solid, Gus Fring’s reintroduction in “Witness” (nominated for directing) was great, “Chicanery” (up for writing) was terrific, “Off Brand” was electric because of Jimmy’s spiraling, and the final two episodes, “Fall” and “Lantern,” ended on a bit of a whimper with Jimmy coming to a realization about himself. It’s strange that “Expenses,” Odenkirk’s submission, isn’t here, but this is a good list.

THE CROWN
“Wolferton Splash,” “Hyde Park Corner,” “Smoke and Mirrors,” “Gelignite,” “Assassins,” “Gloriana”

As anyone who has regularly been reading this blog knows, I just watched this entire season over the course of the past month or two. I found the first episode, a submission here, to be very slow and not all that involving, while episode two, “Hyde Park Corner,” which is nominated for directing, to be a step, if a glacially-paced one, in the right direction. The fifth episode, “Smoke and Mirrors,” was also fine, but it wasn’t until the next episode “Gelignite,” the first to tackle Margaret’s impending marriage, that this show really picked up steam, culminating in the final two episodes of the season, which were much stronger. This show managed to topple “Game of Thrones” and three of its fellow nominees in this race at the Golden Globes, so it’s very possible that it could do it again. I don’t think the excitement factor is there, and while this may be a classically good show, it doesn’t feel all that innovative.

THE HANDMAID’S TALE
“Offred,” “Birth Day,” “Late,” “Jezebels,” “The Bridge,” “Night”

I want to start by saying that this show is excellent, and before I looked back at my reviews of all the nominated shows, I was behind this one as my choice to take home this award. It’s the only one of the new shows that didn’t compete at the Golden Globes since it aired in 2017, so it’s an unknown quantity in that sense. The episode I found to be strongest, “Faithful,” wasn’t selected, but the first three and last three episodes are all terrific. This show does a remarkable job of portraying a frightening world many believe to be not too far from where we stand now, and any of these six hours demonstrates that well. I think this show has a great shot at winning, and I’d be very happy if it did.

HOUSE OF CARDS
“Chapter 53,” “Chapter 55,” “Chapter 56,” “Chapter 63,” “Chapter 64,” “Chapter 65”

This is the fifth consecutive nomination for this show, which has taken home six awards in that time but still counts only Best Drama Guest Actor and Best Directing as its most notable trophies. I’m pretty mixed on this season, since I was so into its election-centric start, from which its first, third, and fourth installments are drawn, and not nearly as into when everything dramatically shifted and took some shocking if far from believable turns. This show is just one of two returning series in this category, and the fact that so much of what’s going on politically in this country now isn’t all that far off from what’s showcased here hurts rather than helps it. I don’t think there’s a single pundit over at Gold Derby who’s predicting this show to win this year, and, unless it was fully about the election, which would at least be better, I don’t see how these episodes make a strong enough case for it either.

STRANGER THINGS
“The Vanishing of Will Byers,” “The Weirdo on Maple Street,” “Holly, Jolly,” “The Body,” “The Bathtub,” “The Upside Down”

Like the other new Netflix show in this race, I just finished watching it after opting not to screen it back when it first premiered last summer. With only eight episodes to choose from, most of the season is encased here. I fully recognize that my opinion about this show isn’t all that valid since most loved it right out of the gate. It took me until episode four to really get into it, so the inclusion of the first three episodes doesn’t impress me all that much. Episode seven was awesome, while episode eight served its purpose well enough. This show is not like others currently on the air, which is the point, and it seems to have developed a true cult following that makes it primed well for a win. It scored the SAG Award for its ensemble, and it’s just a question of whether it can take down a true crowdpleaser with no supernatural content and a terrifying vision of what today could look like.

THIS IS US
“The Big Day,” “Jack Pearson’s Son,” “Memphis,” “Moonshadow,” “Pilgrim Rick,” “Pilot”

This show is the only broadcast network representative on this list, and, aside from PBS (if you count that) the past five years, the first such series nominated since 2011. This huge crowdpleaser earned seven acting nominations, but no writing or directing bids, suggesting that it might not be as well-rounded or highly-regarded as the other four freshmen in this category. All six of its submitted episodes are strong examples of why people love this show so much, which mixes sweetness and sadness and always pulls at the heartstrings. The first episode takes place entirely in the past, looking at Jack and Rebecca while she’s about to give birth. The second centers on tradition and family values. The third is the most memorable hour, which finds Randall and William taking a fateful road trip. The fourth is the season finale, which flashes way back to Jack and Rebecca first meeting. The fifth is the Thanksgiving episode that shows the family bonding when things go wrong, and the sixth is the first hour that got it all started. The only episode that I really liked out of this bunch was the pilot, and while some viewers would celebrate if it won, I’d be pretty surprised and disappointed since it just isn’t on the same level as the others.

WESTWORLD
“The Bicameral Mind,” “Chestnut,” “The Original,” “Trace Decay,” “Trompe L’Oeil,” “The Well-Tempered Clavier”

This freshman HBO series managed a staggering 22 nominations, including one in all four major acting categories. Its episode submissions including the first two hours and the last four. The first two are deep on the disturbing nature of this manufactured world and the mystery of what’s really going on, where the last four episodes bring it all together. I wrote about “Trompe L’Oeil,” the seventh episode, that it contained a twist that I found fully terrific and didn’t see coming, but which more importantly revealed that the writing here and the whole universe that has been created is so much deeper and more complex than I realized. This show could very easily win, especially if you consider its nominations haul, but dense HBO shows often take a few years to really catch on with voters while something flashier and more fast-paced takes the trophy.

What should win (based on entire season): “The Handmaid’s Tale” or “Westworld”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “The Handmaid’s Tale” or “Westworld”
What will win: While the sheer number of nominations might indicate “Westworld,” I think its chances are minimal, though certainly much stronger than returning nominees “Better Call Saul” and “House of Cards.” The four other hot new shows are sure to go head-to-head, and I’d put “The Crown” in fourth place and “This Is Us” in third. After its strong Creative Arts showing last night, I think that Stranger Things will eclipse “The Handmaid's Tale,” much as I'd prefer to predict the latter.

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Donald Glover, Atlanta (B.A.N.)
Stephen Glover, Atlanta (Streets on Lock)
Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe, Master of None (Thanksgiving)
Alec Berg, Silicon Valley (Success Failure)
Billy Kimball, Veep (Georgia)
David Mandel, Veep (Groundbreaking)

Ansari won this award last year for another episode of his show. “Veep” won the year before that. Berg is nominated for the fourth year in a row in this category, and Mandel, who also contends for directing, is back for a second round. Donald Glover is up for directing and acting. A show with two nominations hasn’t won in a few years, and a number of shows have won two years in a row over the past decade.

What should win: I like “Silicon Valley” but either episode of “Veep” would be fine too.
What will win: It might be one of the “Atlanta” episodes, but I think that Master of None will be repeat.

Next up: Best Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Donald Glover, Atlanta (B.A.N.)
Jamie Babbit., Silicon Valley (Intellectual Property)
Mike Judge, Silicon Valley (Server Error)
Morgan Sackett, Veep (Blurb)
David Mandel, Veep (Groundbreaking)
Dale Stern, Veep (Justice)

This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Judge and the second for Mandel and Stern. Mandel and Glover are also nominated for writing, and Glover contends as the star of his show as well. Despite a win two years ago for writing and three nominations in this category this and last year, “Veep” has yet to win an Emmy for directing. In fact, “Transparent” won this award the past two years, “Modern Family” won four times in a row before that, and anything else isn’t on anymore, which means we’ll have a new winner. Last year, the same number of episodes of “Silicon Valley” and “Veep” faced off against one episode of another show and lost.

What should win: Honestly, any of these except for the “Atlanta” episode I really didn’t like.
What will win: It’s hard not to predict the lone Atlanta episode to beat out the competition. I’d expect “Groundbreaking” to be its top competition if the HBO shows don’t split their own votes.

Next up: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Joel Fields and Joseph Weisberg, The Americans (The Soviet Division)
Gordon Smith, Better Call Saul (Chicanery)
Peter Morgan, The Crown (Assassins)
Bruce Miller, The Handmaid’s Tale (Offred)
Matt Duffer and Ross Duffer, Stranger Things (Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers)
Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy, Westworld (The Bicameral Mind)

What we have here are four hot new shows – two pilots, one standout episode, and a season finale – and a very memorable hour of a show in its third season that was nominated two years ago, plus a show that’s gotten in the past three years. Fields and Weisberg are back for a second year, Smith contended the last time his show did, and all five other nominees are here for the first time, though the Duffer brothers and Nolan are also up this year for directing the same episodes. Only two pilots have won in the past two decades – “24” and “Homeland” – but, unlike in previous years, there isn’t a hot returning show like “Game of Thrones,” “Mad Men,” or “The Sopranos” in the running to win again.

What should win: “Offred” or “The Bicameral Mind”
What will win: This would be an easy place to reward “The Crown,” but I think that The Handmaid’s Tale will score the win.

Next up: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Vince Gilligan, Better Call Saul (Witness)
Stephan Daldry, The Crown (Hyde Park Corner)
Kate Dennis, The Handmaid’s Tale (The Bridge)
Reed Morano, The Handmaid’s Tale (Offred)
Lesli Linka Glatter, Homeland (America First)
Matt Duffer and Ross Duffer, Stranger Things (Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers)
Jonathan Nolan, Westworld (The Bicameral Mind)

Represented here are the pilots of “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Stranger Things,” the season finales of “Homeland” and “Westworld,” and key episodes of “Better Call Saul,” “The Crown,” and a second mention for “The Handmaid’s Tale.” This is Glatter’s fourth nomination in five years for her show, which also merited a fifth bid for another director in year one. It’s the only show not nominated for the top prize included here. Every other director is a first-time nominee, and the only other non-freshman series, “Better Call Saul,” makes its debut here for a memorable episode with some intense and effective scenes. This award went to “Game of Thrones” the past two years, and it hasn’t gone to a pilot since “House of Cards” in 2013, though “True Detective” did triumph in 2014 for another episode from its first season. The last three times a show was nominated twice, like “The Handmaid’s Tale” is this year, it triumphed.

What should win: “The Bicameral Mind” is the strongest and best-directed of these episodes, but I wouldn’t complain about the pilot of “The Handmaid’s Tale” getting it instead.
What will win: With so many hot new shows, it’s hard to know. I feel like Stranger Things could prevail over “Offred” or “The Bicameral Mind,” which are sure to garner many votes. It could be any of these, though.

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Becky Ann Baker as Loreen Horvath, Girls (Gummies)
I didn’t even realize that I had written in my review of this episode that Baker was “undeniably excellent” and that I hoped she would earn a nomination this year alongside her onscreen husband Peter Scolari, who won last year. Eating gummies and going on a bender could be just the trick for the very talented first-time nominee, who I first remember from the TV show “Life As We Know It,” to defeat her more well-known fellow nominees and score a win for her show’s final season.

Angela Bassett as Catherine, Master of None (Thanksgiving)
Oscar nominee Bassett has three previous Emmy nominations, two of which she earned in 2015 and 2014 for “American Horror Story.” Her appearance as Denise’s mom in an iconic installment of the Amazon comedy is a very memorable one, as she experiences her daughter’s coming out and tries to deflect it quite a bit rather than accept it. It’s a strong turn, one that could easily win over voters.

Carrie Fisher as Mia Norris, Catastrophe (Episode 6)
The “Star Wars” star best known for playing Princess Leia passed away in December just a day before her mother, and therefore this sentimental nomination makes complete sense. Fortunately, Fisher, who was previously nominated for guesting on “30 Rock” in 2008, is deserving of a mention for her scene-stealing performance as Rob’s inappropriate mother, who comes to town for a funeral and makes her presence very felt. I think she’s a good bet to win, both as a posthumous tribute and as recognition of a solid turn.

Melissa McCarthy as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
This is the eighth nomination for McCarthy, who won in 2011 for “Mike and Molly” and has contended every single time she has hosted the variety sketch series, earning her five-timers’ jacket for this episode. As usual, McCarthy is clearly having fun and is more than game for some physical comedy, including getting pied in the face during one sketch at least twenty times in the span of a few minutes. She could win, but I imagine she’ll be back again for future hosting gigs, so she’ll have another shot in the future.

Wanda Sykes as Daphne Lido, Black-ish (Lemons)
Despite seven previous Emmy nominations and one trophy for writing, this is the first time Sykes contends as an actress. Her recurring role on ABC’s popular sitcom isn’t all that prominent, but she does have the opportunity to make a few good points about racism as it relates to the election in her submitted episode. Her speeches pale in comparison to costar Anthony Anderson’s, however, so I don’t see her meriting enough attention here.

Kristen Wiig as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Kristen Wiig)
Back before Kate McKinnon became the first performer from her show to win an Emmy in the main four acting categories, Wiig has nominated four times as a regular cast member. She has two additional nominations as well as one bid for hosting the year after she left the show. Now, four years later, she returns to the show for the first official time and feels right at home. I always thought her characters were a bit strange for her to win, and little about this episode changes that.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Baker
Who will win: I think this will safely go to Fisher.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Riz Ahmed as Paul-Louis, Girls (All I Ever Wanted)
I’m a big fan of Ahmed’s from “Four Lions” and “Nightcrawler,” and it’s great to see him as a double Emmy nominee this year, for his lead role in the miniseries “The Night Of” and for his two-episode guest spot as a surfing instructor on HBO’s recently-wrapped dramedy. Ahmed is refreshingly three-dimensional as a character that could have fallen flat but turns out to be very memorable. I don’t think he can compete against the comics in this category, but I’m sure he’ll get a few votes.

Dave Chappelle as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Dave Chappelle)
Chappelle has three previous Emmy nominations for writing and producing, but this is pretty much the first thing he’s done on television or film in about a decade. I can’t imagine that he knew he’d have to steer the ship right after Donald Trump won the election, but he managed to do a great job and be both poignant and funny in the process. Some of the humor is a bit specific to his past projects, so I’m not sure how broadly appealing it is, but he has a good shot at the win.

Tom Hanks as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Tom Hanks)
Hanks has been nominated fifteen times previously for producing, directing, and writing, winning seven times. This is his first bid for acting, and what a marvelous one it is. Hanks feels very comfortable on stage, marking his ninth time hosting this show. He’s used very well in sketches, particularly parodying his “Sully” performance and acting as America’s dad. I honestly think that he could win, given that he does have two Oscars and he’s still one of the most beloved actors working in Hollywood.

Hugh Laurie as Tom James, Veep (Blurb)
Despite winning three Golden Globes, Laurie has yet to win an Emmy. He was nominated six times for “House” and then again last year for “The Night Manager.” I thought that Laurie should have been nominated - and I gave him an AFT Award - for his role on this show two seasons ago, and so now he’s finally here for his lone appearance in this season in a far less charming context, beating Selina to the punch in revealing that she and Tom had sex in the White House. I don’t see this winning voters over, especially considering the stacked competition, but it could be a good way to reward him after passing him over so many times.

Lin-Manuel Miranda as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Lin-Manuel Miranda)
Lin-Manuel Miranda has three Tonys and two Grammys, and it turns out that he has an Emmy too, for writing a song performed during the 2014 Tony Awards. Now he’s here on his own merit for hosting the variety sketch series. His sketches are mostly a rehash of his “Hamilton” fame and his enthusiasm for rapping. He’s popular and could well win, but given that he didn’t even win the Tony for acting - losing to his costar - suggests that the same may happen here.

Matthew Rhys as Chuck Palmer, Girls (American Bitch)
Rhys was first nominated for “The Americans” last year and is back again this year, now as a double nominee. I think Rhys is here mostly because of voters’ affinity for his regular series role, but I suppose that he did make an impression as an author Hannah interviews for the duration of an episode facing some severe allegations. He’s not likeable at all, and so I don’t see Rhys really being a contender in this particular contest.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who should win (based on individual episodes): I like Hanks, but I’d be fine with Ahmed also.
Who will win: I’m really not too confident, but I’m going to pick Hanks over Chappelle.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alexis Bledel as Ofglen, The Handmaid’s Tale (Late)
This is the first nomination for the former “Gilmore Girls” star, and what a performance this was. Ofglen was already a memorable part of the first two episodes, and to see her brought to trial for being a lesbian and forced to witness the fate endured by her partner was horrific. Bledel is so good in this episode, emoting with her eyes and finally letting out her rage when she’s able to speak. She should win this, hands down.

Laverne Cox as Sophia Burset, Orange is the New Black (Doctor Psycho)
Cox made history three years ago as the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for an Emmy, and now she’s back in the drama category after her show got reclassified. Cox didn’t appear much in season four, and her submitted episode showed her for the first time in a while, doing poorly in solitary confinement. She’s talented, to be sure, but I don’t think she compares to the other contenders in this category for this particular except of work.

Ann Dowd as Patti Levin, The Leftovers (The Most Powerful Man in the World (and His Identical Twin Brother))
Dowd’s nomination here is welcome but an absurd both that Dowd wasn’t recognized two years ago for the show and that this serves as the single nomination earned by this series over the course of its three seasons. Even though I loved season one much more, Dowd, also nominated this year for “The Handmaid’s Tale,” is still a tour de force in this episode, playing perfectly off Justin Theroux. She’d be a great choice to win, and it could totally happen.

Shannon Purser as Barb Holland, Stranger Things (Holly, Jolly)
I’m not sure that if I had watched this show ahead of time and then heard about Purser’s nomination I would have been surprised, but I’m definitely in shock over her submission. While her presence – or lack thereof – continues to dominate the show going forward, she literally appears in one short scene at the beginning of this episode. While Margo Martindale has won in the past for similar screentime, even she was more prominent.

Cicely Tyson as Ophelia Hartness, How to Get Away with Murder (Go Cry Somewhere Else)
Ninety-two-year-old actress Tyson was nominated for this role two years ago and has eleven additional nominations prior to that, dating back to 1974 and including three wins, most recently in 1994. Her episode is full of meaty material, as she gets to sit in the back of the courtroom as her daughter is on trial and then speak to her after she gets beaten brutally. She even confesses to her daughter’s alleged crimes, though it’s claimed that her memory is fading and she doesn’t know what she’s saying. I thought Tyson would win two years ago and so she could just as easily now, but I wouldn’t rate this performance in the same league as most of the other nominees.

Alison Wright as Martha Hanson, The Americans (The Soviet Division)
Even just from watching a handful of episodes of this show each year, I could tell that Wright was a fan favorite and should have been nominated last year based on the show’s popularity with Emmy voters. Like previous winner Margo Martindale from her show in this category, she appears in just one scene, which finds her trying to speak Russian and learning about a new opportunity. If she won, it would only be out of nostalgia for the show, not anyone watching her episode.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Bledel or Dowd
Who will win: I’m hopeful that Bledel can manage this win as I think that she’s far enough ahead of the rest of the pack.

Next up: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Hank Azaria as Ed Cochran, Ray Donovan (Norman Saves the World)
Azaria has actually won six Emmys out of twelve previous nominations, mostly for voice work on “The Simpsons” but most recently for this same performance last year when, like this year, he returned for a brief guest stint following his season two recurring role. Azaria knocked out a would-be repeat winner, Reg E. Cathey, last year, though he has history on his side with Charles S. Dutton, who won back-to-back trophies in this category for different shows in 2002 and 2003. Azaria’s guest spot was great, allowing him to pump up the exaggerated franticness of his character, and he’d be a fitting recipient of another award.

Brian Tyree Henry as Ricky, This Is Us (Memphis)
I firmly believe that first-time nominee Henry is here only because of enthusiasm for the show on which he actually stars, “Atlanta,” which managed a handful of nominations but not one for him. I don’t remember much of him in his submitted episode, which is already likely to win Emmys for stars Sterling K. Brown and Ron Cephas Jones. As a relative of Randall’s that he meets for the first time, Henry is a friendly face and a kindred spirit, but his performance pales in comparison both to his role on “Atlanta” and the other two men from his show nominated here.

Gerald McRaney as Dr. Nathan Katowski, This Is Us (The Big Day)
I’ve been a fan of McRaney’s since he starred in an important paternal role on “Jericho,” and seen him in the likes of “Longmire” and “House of Cards” since then. McRaney’s moderately grumpy doctor was a fan favorite from the pilot of this show, and it makes complete sense that he would submit the episode that allowed him an unexpected focus in flashback as he struggled to move past the death of his wife. If this category was predictable, which it rarely is, I think he’s easily got the best shot.

Ben Mendelsohn as Danny Rayburn, Bloodline (Chapter 32)
Mendelsohn took home the supporting actor trophy for this role last year though, regrettably, the Australian actor wasn’t present to accept it. Moved to the guest category, Mendelsohn is now the lone representative of his show, with costar Kyle Chandler missing out on a third consecutive nod for the show’s final season. Danny is a haunting, influential presence in his submitted episode, which finds Chandler’s John spiraling out of control and hallucinating. There’s no reason to think that Mendelsohn might not win again.

Denis O’Hare as Jessie, This Is Us (Last Christmas)
O’Hare, a terrific actor, has two previous Emmy nominations in the supporting miniseries/TV movie category, both for “American Horror Story.” I remember him best from his scenery-chewing role on “True Blood,” and here he tones down the aggression and the creepiness to play the boyfriend of William, Randall’s father, and he’s introduced in this episode. It’s a decent submission but he’s hardly the most prominent guest star on his own show or in this category.

BD Wong as Whiterose, Mr. Robot (eps2.3_logic-b0mb.hc)
It’s appalling to me that, not only did Rami Malek get snubbed after pulling off a win last year, but the entire series, which is one of the most fascinating things on television these days, is relegated to just one semi-major bid in Wong’s guest turn after he got left off last year. The longtime “Law and Order: SVU” cast member earns his first Emmy nomination for playing a powerful, mysterious influence with a dual identity. He could easily win since it’s a compelling performance, but I do wish that the show would earn more accolades for those actors I consider to be its best assets.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Azaria or McRaney
Who will win: Judging based on the episodes, I’d say McRaney would be ahead of the pack, but I’ve learned that such things are foolish since the guest categories are always hard to predict. Wong could win, but I’ll go with Mendelsohn.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Vanessa Bayer as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Dwayne Johnson)
Bayer spent seven years on her show before leaving in May. She’s one of three players from the series nominated this year, and she submitted the season finale as her sample episode. She is definitely funny, particularly in one sketch where she has water poured on her during a theme park ride over and over again, but she’s not nearly as prominently featured as either of her costars, so I would be genuinely surprised if she managed to score a win here.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (Groundbreaking)
This is the fifth nomination from Chlumsky, the lone supporting female from her cast to be honored by Emmy voters. Amy was still front-and-center in season six even though she had a more ambiguous and frustrating role, and the season finale, her submitted episode, found her desperately clinging to a lifeboat only to discover that things aren’t at all as they seem, and that wasn’t the only big surprise she got. She could benefit from being the only actress on her own show here, therefore not susceptible to vote-splitting, but I think the other nominees are much showier and likely to dominate.

Kathryn Hahn as Rabbi Raquel, Transparent (Life Sucks and Then You Die)
Hooray for Hahn! This talented actress has been great in so many projects, and I’m so glad that she’s here for this show and not the unbearable “I Love Dick.” Hahn’s role as Rabbi Raquel took on a more centric focus this season as her association with the Pfefferman family changed, and her submitted episode allowed Raquel to let go of the some of the aggression she was holding onto due to other people trying to define her experiences. I think she’s overshadowed by costar and fellow nominee Light, but I’m glad that she’s here.

Leslie Jones as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Tom Hanks)
Jones, who has been on her show for three seasons, earns her first Emmy nomination this year. Throughout the six episodes I watched, she’s not featured in sketches all that much, but she is pretty memorable every time she does appear. Her submitted episode allows her the opportunity to address the fact that she was hacked in what essentially serves as a full-on monologue. I don’t think that rates as a top acting performance, but it’s hard to notice her and laugh occasionally when she’s shouting as well.

Judith Light as Shelly Pfefferman, Transparent (Exciting and New)
This is Light’s second consecutive nomination, and she was also recognized previously in 2007 for her guest work on “Ugly Betty.” Light has a knockout submission, the season finale, in which she bottles up all of her craziness and channels it into an epic one-woman show, “To Shell and Back,” which she performs on a cruise. If it weren’t for the next nominee, I’d say she had this one in the bag.

Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Dave Chappelle)
McKinnon won this award last year on her third try, and that was before the election happened. Her portrayal of Hillary Clinton is undeniably hilarious and terrific, yet what she gets to do in the opening of this episode is play the piano in a relatively serious response to the shock of her losing the election. She has plenty of funny moments throughout the episode, with and without host Chappelle, and I think voters will check off her name right after watching the cold open.

Who should win (based on entire season): I’d say McKinnon or Light
Who should win (based on individual episodes): McKinnon or Light
Who will win: I would have told you Light a while ago, and it’s still possible, but I think that McKinnon is pretty much unstoppable for a repeat win.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Louie Anderson as Christine Baskets, Baskets (Denver)
Anderson was last year’s winner after taking home two Daytime Emmys almost two decades ago. Now he’s back along with costar Zach Galifianakis for an episode in which Christine travels on her own to Denver so that she can happen to meet up with a guy she met and likes. It’s an endearing, sweet performance that speaks to why Anderson is, oddly enough, the perfect person for this role. He could well repeat, but I think he’s got tougher competition to face this year.

Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump, Saturday Night Live (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
Baldwin has eleven previous nominations and two wins, both for “30 Rock,” and he’s also nominated this year for hosting “Match Game.” After debuting as Donald Trump in the season 42 premiere of the long-running variety sketch series, Baldwin was present throughout almost the entire year, constantly mocking the Republican candidate who went on to win the presidency, giving Baldwin more material than he could possibly have hoped for. He’s hilarious, and I think Emmy voters, who already like him, are likely to reward him for mocking a figure they really don’t like.

Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Kimmy’s Roommate Lemonades)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Burgess, who plays a totally absurd character with almost the same name, just no second S. I’m not too fond of this submission, since I wrote in my review that it doesn’t compare to many of Titus’ previous performances, complete with lots of singing and some jealousy when he thought his boyfriend was getting close to another guy. I would have gone with the one where he ate Dionne Warwick, I suppose this submission is okay, but if Pinot Noir-Caviar couldn’t win it for him, nothing can.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Grab It)
This is Burrell’s eighth consecutive nomination. He won in 2014 and in 2011, and now he’s the only thing aside from his show in the top race that’s recognized, which is a big deal considering his show earned seventeen nominations in its heydey. Burrell’s submission isn’t one of the six episodes his show entered for consideration, but it does serve as a fun showcase for his unique talents, as Phil tries to join his father’s exclusive club and gets a version of what he wants instead. He’s won twice before, but his show has zero buzz right now so I don’t think he’s really in contention.

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (Judge)
This is Hale’s fifth nomination. He won in 2015 and 2013. His show is still a huge hit and, even though I don’t agree, he appears to be the default supporting male singled out, along with the guy below. His episode is all about him, as he returns to his home in Alabama and has to deal with his father and the complicated relationship they’ve always had. If he won before for less focused installments, he could easily do it again, so watch out for him even though I’m not predicting him to win.

Matt Walsh as Mike McLintock, Veep (Chicklet)
Walsh is back for the second year in a row for his portrayal of hapless writer Mike, who had a less prominent role this season yet appears to have still won over Emmy voters. After suffering so much abuse from Selina in this season, he finally was in her good graces in his submitted episode before being totally cast out and then expressing his rage in an unprecedented way. I can’t imagine him topping Hale, especially not for this season.

Who should win (based on entire season): Baldwin’s repeat performances are funny, and Burgess had a good year, but I’m not sure who I’d choose from this crop.
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Baldwin
Who will win: I suppose Anderson could repeat, but this seems like an easy path to victory for Baldwin.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Uzo Aduba as Crazy Eyes, Orange is the New Black (People Persons)
Aduba has won both times she was previously nominated, two years ago in this category and the year before that as a comedy guest actress back when this show was classified differently. After her show was almost completely shut out last year, Aduba is her back for her portrayal of endearing inmate Suzanne Warren, better known as Crazy Eyes. Her submitted episode explains her backstory in a very sympathetic and tragic way, and then shows her letting out her rage in the present. There’s no denying she’s good, but she wasn’t the best performer on her show this year and can’t really compare to the five fresh faces against whom she’s competing in this race.

Millie Bobby Brown as Eleven, Stranger Things (The Bathtub)
Newcomer Brown is just thirteen years old and was nominated earlier this season for a SAG Award for her performance as telekinetic outcast Eleven, who, freed from a science experiment, befriends a few young boys searching for their missing friend. She’s an easy character to love, and in her submitted episode, she finally connects with everyone else, in addition to flipping a van over with her mind. It’s a competitive category, but don’t be surprised at all if her name is called.

Ann Dowd as Aunt Lydia, The Handmaid’s Tale (Offred)
Dowd should have been nominated in this category two years ago for “The Leftovers” and for an Oscar for her performance in the film “Compliance” in 2012. Finally, she’s getting some recognition, including a bid for her guest turn on “The Leftovers” this year. I cited Dowd as the “strongest instance of casting in saw in the opening hour” of her show, and it’s true that “Aunt” Lydia, who leads the brainwashing and terrorizing effort on young woman forced into primitive religious servitude, is often worse than the men who dominate that society. She’d be a great choice for the win; I’m just not sure her part is large enough to garner a substantial percentage of votes.

Chrissy Metz as Kate Pearson, This Is Us (Pilot)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Metz, who contended for a Golden Globe earlier in the season alongside costar Mandy Moore, who didn’t earn an Emmy mention. Metz plays a very sympathetic role on her show, which is beloved by viewers and apparently by voters too. Submitting the pilot is smart because that’s the episode everyone really loved, and it gives Metz a great platform since Kate is struggling with her weight and first meets Toby at a support group. I don’t think it’s enough for her to win against stronger contenders in this category, but it’s possible.

Thandie Newton as Maeve Millay, Westworld (Trace Decay)
I’ve made sure to write as often as I can that I’m fully behind Newton, who was nominated by both the Golden Globes and SAG earlier this season but didn’t win either award, being rewarded for her exceptional performance. I remember her from a lackluster turn in “Mission Impossible II” and much stronger work in “Crash,” but this is something on an entirely different level. Her submitted episode finds her testing out the limits of her newfound knowledge and power, and it’s an easy case for her to win, which I wish she would but I’m not sure because of the competitive nature of this category.

Samira Wiley as Moira, The Handmaid’s Tale (Night)
I might argue that first-time nominee Wiley should be here for another show, "Orange is the New Black,” instead, but there’s no denying that she’s also very good as a handmaid who made it out on this dystopian drama. Her selected episode is the season finale, in which she arrives in a new place and is overwhelmed by what she finds there. She can’t compare to costar Dowd based on this episode, so I think her nomination will serve as her reward.

Who should win (based on entire season): Newton, Brown, or Dowd
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Newton or Brown
Who will win: I’m torn. The easiest answer would be that Aduba would repeat, and Metz could also score a win. Brown will get votes, for sure, but I’m still going to go with my pick: Newton. Let’s see if it happens.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut, Better Call Saul (Witness)
This is Banks’ fourth nomination for this role, with nods the past two years for this series and in 2013 for “Breaking Bad.” He was also nominated in 1989 for “Wiseguy.” Banks being recognized is yet another instance of questionable watching by viewers of the show, since costar Michael McKean should have had this spot this year. In Banks’ submitted episode, former fellow nominee Giancarlo Esposito is the one who has a more prominent showcase thanks to his long-anticipated return, so I don’t imagine this will be the year that Banks takes home the gold.

David Harbour as Chief Hopper, Stranger Things (The Upside Down)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Harbour, an actor who has appeared in a number of projects throughout the years. I remember him best from “The Newsroom” and “Black Mass.” He’s one of just two cast members from his show nominated, and his performance as Chief Hopper is one that’s mostly comical but also full of deadly seriousness, as demonstrated in his very strong choice of the season finale, which humanizes him by flashing back to an impactful loss in his life while chronicling an attempt to save another in the present. He’ll get some votes, and he could theoretically win, but he’s not nearly as popular as his younger female costar.

Michael Kelly as Doug Stamper, House of Cards (Chapter 64)
This is Kelly’s third consecutive nomination. I’ve argued that he is far from the most deserving member from his cast to be recognized these days, but he does still turn in a fine, focused performance as a man called upon to move mountains and sacrifice himself so that others can remain in power. His submitted episode is the ultimate example of that, and Kelly still makes him a complex character who may well have known the whole time that this is where he was headed. I don’t see him winning in any scenario, but he’ll get some votes.

Ron Cephas Jones as William Hill, This Is Us (Memphis)
This is the first awards nomination of any kind for Jones, who has appeared on a handful of other TV shows in less prominent supporting roles over the past two years. Jones is an easy pick for the most sentimental of all the roles on an already excessively sentimental show, and submitting the episode in which he goes on a final road trip with his son is almost a guaranteed way for him to win. Consider him pretty likely.

John Lithgow as Winston Churchill, The Crown (Assassins)
Lithgow, who I prefered this season for his turn in NBC’s comedy “Trial and Error,” is an Emmy juggernaut. This is his twelfth nomination. He has won five times, including three trophies for “3rd Rock from the Sun” and one for guest-starring on “Dexter.” Now, he’s playing a famous historical figure, who in his submitted episode must confront the fact that he is aging when he sits for a painting. It’s a superb showcase and no one will deny that Lithgow is excellent in the role.

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (America First)
This is Patinkin’s third nomination for his role and his first since 2014, the only other year when his show also wasn’t up for Best Drama Series. He won an Emmy back in 195 for “Chicago Hope.” He represents just one of two nods for his current show, which is also up for directing for his submitted episode. The season finale finds Saul choosing the right side after walking the line for a while and getting penalized for it. I think this show is way past its prime, and just because Patinkin is still a good actor doesn’t mean the show or his character should be winning awards these days.

Jeffrey Wright as Bernard Lowe, Westworld (The Well-Tempered Clavier)
Wright won an Emmy in 2004 for his supporting work in the miniseries “Angels of America,” beating out three costars from the same project. Now, Wright is the only member of his cast nominated in this category, despite an expected fellow nominee and another who would have been deserving too, for his portrayal of a man who treats his work as a Westworld programmer as that of a scientist. His selected episode, the penultimate installment of the season, is a superb showcase of Bernard as he learns much more about his origins, and makes a phenomenal argument for the respected actor, who many thought would be nominated for “Boardwalk Empire” a few years back, to take home the award again this year.

Who should win (based on entire season): Wright
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Wright, Lithgow, or Jones
Who will win: This is a two-person competition between Jones and Lithgow. I’m inclined to go with the former since I think that his show will be recognized for some of its acting, giving Jones and his onscreen son twin trophies. Don’t be surprised at all if Lithgow wins though - he’s the more distinguished choice, mainly because of the classical quality of his show.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Pamela Adlon as Sam Fox, Better Things (Future Fever)
Adlon was nominated two years ago for guest-starring on “Louie” and now stars in her own show, which managed to be remembered by Emmy voters despite airing early last fall. Adlon’s submitted episode finds Sam trying her best to juggle being a mom, frequently being inappropriate and pretty funny in the process. Adlon would be a cool choice here, and I’m sure she’ll get some votes. Her show has no other support, though, which is a shame, so I don’t know if she can pull it off.

Jane Fonda as Grace Hanson, Grace and Frankie (The Pot)
Two-time Oscar winner Fonda joins costar Tomlin, who is on her third nomination, in this race for the first time for her portrayal of the less bohemian of two divorced women in their seventies who live together following their coming out and subsequent marriage of their husbands. Fonda won an Emmy back in 1984 for her performance in the TV movie “The Dollmaker” and was nominated twice recently for guest-starring on “The Newsroom.” While marijuana usage in comedies is usually a slippery slope to stupidity, in this case seeing the very buttoned-up, serious Grace use “the pot” is a true delight. It’s good that she’s here, but I think voters still prefer Tomlin, and neither of them will be able to beat the younger blood with these episodes.

Allison Janney as Bonnie, Mom (Tush Push and Some Radishes)
Janney is an Emmy powerhouse. This is her thirteenth nomination, and she’s won seven times, two of which have been for this role. More importantly, this is her first time contending in the lead comedy race, and when she was similarly promoted for “The West Wing” fifteen years ago, she won two out of four times following two wins in the supporting category. I don’t think Janney really compares to the others in this race for this particular performance, but another episode about dealing with her absentee mother and the very unique way in which she reacts to that is sure to garner a few votes from eager devotees of this do-no-wrong comedienne.

Ellie Kemper as Kimmy Schmidt, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Kimmy Goes to College)
This is Kemper’s second consecutive nomination after being snubbed for the first year of her show. I’m a huge fan of hers and think that this was her best year on the air yet, and her submission is dynamite. There’s no better fit than Kimmy Schmidt to be a taskrabbit, and Kemper did a spectacular job owning the entire episode. I don’t think her show will ever be one that really wins awards, but how awesome would it be if she did?

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Groundbreaking)
This is Louis-Dreyfus’ eighteenth career nomination, and she’s the five-time defending champion in this race, which would make a sixth win historic. Her show is up to seventeen nominations this year, and it has won Best Comedy Series the past two years. I don’t think any of the competition, including promoted past winner Janney, are strong enough to take her down, especially considering her submission of the season finale, which includes flashbacks and puts her on a surprising course to success. I think she’s going to take number six.

Tracee Ellis Ross as Rainbow Johnson, Black-ish (Being Bow-Racial)
Ross was nominated last year and, earlier this year, won the Golden Globe on her first try against some pretty steady competition. Ross’ submission finds her contemplating her biracial heritage, tying into the show’s main themes of being intolerant when you’re the one often targeted by intolerance. Ross is funny and this half-hour highlights her well. There are a lot of women in this category, and even though Louis-Dreyfus has won five Emmys and no Golden Globes for this role, Ross is still the only one who has defeated her in competition like this.

Lily Tomlin as Frankie Bergstein, Grace and Frankie (The Burglary)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Tomlin. She has six previous wins, none of which are for acting. She’s joined by costar Jane Fonda for the first time this year, and her submission is just as good if not better. Frankie’s reaction to the fact that her roommate owns a gun is one of complete hysteria, and it only gets worse when she directs that energy towards anyone with a gun. It’s a great choice, though I think that Fonda’s presence in the category is likely to take votes away from her.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kemper
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Kemper, Tomlin, Fonda, or Louis-Dreyfus
Who will win: I think it’s going to be Louis-Dreyfus again, though I guess Adlon, Ross, or Janney could upset, in that order.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Anthony Anderson as Andre Johnson, Black-ish (Lemons)
This is Anderson’s third consecutive nomination, and his show is competing in the top race for the second year in a row. His show’s popularity has only risen, and there’s only one new show this year in this genre that’s equally popular, and that’s “Atlanta.” Fortunately for Anderson, he’s got a knockout submission that could actually win him this thing, thanks to a powerful monologue about accepting other people’s different options in an episode all about the election. He’ll definitely get a good chunk of votes - it’s his strongest entry yet.

Aziz Ansari as Dev, Master of None (The Dinner Party)
I’m a huge fan of Ansari, who was nominated in this category last year, won for writing, and now contends again for writing this year. Ansari was superb in season two, but I would have chosen one of the opening Italy episodes or the closing romantic ones as a showcase rather than this perfectly decent one in which he’s typically great, balancing different women who don’t feel the same way about him. I’d be thrilled if he won, especially given the uncertain future of this show, but I don’t think he can pull it off. He’s much likelier to repeat for writing.

Zach Galifianakis as Chip and Dale Baskets, Baskets (Freaks)
Galifianakis was previously nominated for hosting SNL in 2011 and won back-to-back Emmys in 2014 and 2015 for Outstanding Short-Format Live-Action Entertainment Program. He joins costar Louie Anderson, who won last year and is back again this year, for his dual performance as twin brothers on FX’s gloomy dramedy. In the season premiere, Zach mainly just plays Chip, who goes from down on his luck to being celebrated for his clowning abilities, all the while realizing that this life on the road can’t last forever. It’s a fine submission, but his inclusion was enough of a surprise that a win would be a true shock.

Donald Glover as Earnest Marks, Atlanta (The Big Bang)
Golden Globe winner Glover is new to the Emmys but is actually nominated for three awards this year, recognized for directing and writing an episode of his show. Glover is likeable but doesn’t get to be all that funny since he’s more of a straight man in a darker kind of show. His submission is that of the pilot, which was an episode that saw him aspiring to greatness and got many viewers into this show. He’s up against some funnier players (and Tambor), but he did win a Golden Globe, so he could well muster up the momentum to win this too.

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless (You Sold Me the Laundromat, Remember?)
This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Macy, who contended previously for seven Emmys, winning one for “Door to Door.” It’s still crazy to me that people watch this show and don’t recognize the diversity of talent aside from Macy, but it’s hard to deny that he’s a strong part of the show. I suppose that pretending to be an old woman’s deceased husband so that he can get a bed to sleep in wasn’t the most depraved thing Frank has ever done, but I hardly think it’s worthwhile enough to win Macy this trophy, though a vote split between Glover, Ansari, and Tambor could easily make him a winner.

Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman (Elizah)
Tambor is the two-time defending champ in this category, and has seven previous nominations for his supporting work on “Arrested Development” and “The Larry Sanders Show.” For the first time, his series isn’t nominated along with him, but Tambor continues to be terrific. The submission of the season premiere, in which Maura works at a hotline and takes a call from someone on the brink of suicide, is strong, and Tambor will surely repeat unless voters want something more comedic.

Who should win (based on entire season): Ansari or Tambor
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Tambor or Anderson
Who will win: This is a tough call. Most are saying that Glover will triumph following his Golden Globe win, but I don’t see the love translating quite as strongly even though the show earned a good deal of nominations. Tambor is the safe bet to make it three in a row, even though his show was dropped from the Best Comedy Series race. Or will Anderson prevail in a vote-split situation? Macy could just as easily be a spoiler. I’d love to see Ansari win, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Viola Davis as Annalise Keating, How to Get Away with Murder (Wes)
Davis won this award two years ago and was nominated again last year. Since then, she picked up an Oscar for “Fences,” which should make anyone question why she bothers to star in this show and how the two performances possibly compare. The season finale gives Davis plenty of ammunition and over-the-top lines to utter, but I think that Davis’ time in this category is limited and she’s certainly not going to win again.

Claire Foy as Queen Elizabeth, The Crown (Assassins)
First-time Emmy nominee Foy is off to a fantastic start with Golden Globe and SAG wins from earlier this season for her regal performance. I’ve been speedily catching up on this show after turning off the pilot just five minutes in, unaware of what this show’s future awards potential would be. Foy is certainly great, though I’m a bit puzzled by her episode submission. I would have gone with the second episode, “Hyde Park Corner,” or the eighth, “Pride and Joy,” but instead she chose the same one as costar John Lithgow, which delves into a lifelong friendship and features just one knockout scene at the end. She still has a great shot - awards bodies seem to love her.

Elisabeth Moss as Offred/June, The Handmaid’s Tale (Night)
Moss has been nominated previously six times, all for “Mad Men.” Now she’s back for her stunning turn as a young mother enslaved as a handmaid in a hellish society governed by religion. Moss, who is truly terrific, submitted the season finale, which should still be accessible for viewers since she has to deal with the agony of being separated from her daughter and finally decides to take action to defend herself. This is a crowded category, but it’s also a knockout submission.

Keri Russell as Elizabeth Jennings, The Americans (Dyatkovo)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Russell. Last year, her show was nominated for Best Drama Series, and this year it isn’t. She’s popular and might be able to win next year for the show’s final season with the right submission, but in a category filled with strong women forced to make tough ethical decisions, I just don’t think she’s sympathetic enough. Her episode paints her as cold and unforgiving, determined to kill a traitor even though she’s not completely sure of her identity.

Evan Rachel Wood as Dolores, Westworld (The Bicameral Mind)
Wood was previously nominated for an Emmy in 2011 for her supporting role in the miniseries “Mildred Pierce.” If you had to choose one person who’s really the lead of HBO’s head trip, it’s her. She’s terrific in every episode, playing someone who’s programmed to respond a certain way and who knows more than she should because of glitches in both the program and her environment. Her submission is the season finale, in which she takes action on what she’s learned. It’s a great episode for loyal viewers, but I’m not sure it will play as well for those who haven’t followed along. She’d be very deserving of a win but I don’t see it happening.

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 65)
This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Wright. She won a Golden Globe in 2014 but her show has yet to win a major Emmy despite many nominations each year for the past five years running. Just like her onscreen husband is being left behind and Claire is headed for the limelight, Wright is the likeliest member of her cast to eventually win an Emmy. I think her submission from last year was better, but there’s no denying her power shift in the season finale is an exceptional showcase of her skills.

Who should win (based on entire season): Moss
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Moss
Who will win: This seems to me to be a competition between Foy, the early awards favorite, and Moss, the new entry, who is so overdue and also so good in her show. I don’t think this is the year for Wright or Russell, and despite having so many nominations, Wood’s show seems destined to win only technical prizes.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series