Emmy Winner Predictions

Okay, so the Emmys are tonight. I didn’t do all that well in my predictions for the categories that have been announced thus far, getting just 1/4 in the guest acting races. As expected, Alexis Bledel triumphed for “The Handmaid’s Tale,” while Gerald McRaney won for “This Is Us.” And both Dave Chappelle, who I had in second place, and Melissa McCarthy, who I should have predicted, took home comedy honors for “Saturday Night Live,” indicating strong support for the late-night sketch series. These categories don’t usually honor the fan favorite or the best performance, and I think overall that worked out better this year.

This is a big year for the Emmys, with five new shows contending for Best Drama Series and last year’s winner out of the running, and a hip new comedy threatening to take down the two-time champ for Best Comedy Series. Having just caught up on two of the most buzzed-about series, “Stranger Things” and “The Crown,” I can say that, while I think that “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Westworld” are two of the top five dramas of the year, I’d be okay with “Stranger Things” winning because I understand the appeal. I would, not however, be pleased if “This Is Us” takes it since I don’t feel it’s anywhere near the caliber of the other nominees. It also saddens me that “Westworld” apparently has no shot even though it’s the most-nominated series and also one of the best. The real question is whether Ron Cephas Jones can beat John Lithgow and if Thandie Newton can beat Chrissy Metz and Millie Bobby Brown. I’m saying yes on both with the expectation that I might be wrong. I’m not pulling especially for any of the nominees aside from Newton since I think she’s so deserving, and I’d also prefer Elisabeth Moss over Claire Foy. On the comedy side of things, I am strongly of the belief that “Atlanta” won’t win the top two prizes. I’m sticking with Jeffrey Tambor for Best Actor even though I have a sneaking suspicion that Anthony Anderson will upset due to his episode submission. I think that Baldwin and McKinnon are solidly ahead of their competition, and the directing and writing prizes seem somewhat sewn up as well.

I didn’t offer official predictions in the limited series and TV movie categories, but since I did watch “Big Little Lies,” “Fargo,” and “The Night Of,” as well as the pilot episodes of “Feud: Bette and Joan” and “Genius,” I have more knowledge in those races than I’ve had in years. It would be nice to see Riz Ahmed rewarded for his performance in “The Night Of,” though I’m actually pulling for Bill Camp, who I noted as the MVP of the show, to win in the supporting actor race, where Alexander Skarsgard, also a solid performer, is expected to prevail for “Big Little Lies.” If I had to choose between Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon, I’d pick Witherspoon, and between Laura Dern and Shailene Woodley, I’d pick Woodley, though most prognosticators are going with the opposite. I didn’t love any of the three miniseries seasons mentioned above, and I can’t believe that Mary Elizabeth Winstead isn’t nominated for her work on “Fargo.” I’ll be paying attention to these categories more than I do usually, but I’m still in this for the drama and comedy series.

As always, I’m excited for the show, and will post some brief reactions either immediately afterwards or the next morning. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.

No guts, no glory:
Ann Dowd wins for “The Handmaid’s Tale”

DRAMA SERIES:
Stranger Things

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Thandie Newton (Westworld)

DRAMA DIRECTING:
Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers (Stranger Things)

DRAMA WRITING:
Offred (The Handmaid’s Tale)

COMEDY SERIES:
Veep

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)

COMEDY DIRECTING:
B.A.N. (Atlanta)

COMEDY WRITING:
Thanksgiving (Master of None)