Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde, Ozark (Pound of Flesh and Still Kickin’) 

This is Bateman’s fourth nomination for this role, back in the running after the show’s hiatus last season. His show is also over now, and he just has a win for directing from several years ago. Bateman is certainly excellent but his show didn’t deliver big numbers in terms of nominations. If he was going to win, another year seems like it would have been better, but the lack of a clear frontrunner in him scoring a victory.

Brian Cox as Logan Roy, Succession (All the Bells Say)
Cox is back after being nominated for season two of his show, when he lost to his costar and onscreen son Jeremy Strong. Cox is formidable in this role, and definitely does some of his best work in the season finale. But Strong was able to defeat him last time and I feel like that might happen again, though it’s always possible that he could win this time around for the definition of scenery-chewing and displaying cruelty.

Lee Jung-jae as Player 456, Squid Game (Gganbu)
This is the first nomination for the South Korean actor, who scored a Screen Actors Guild Award victory over both “Succession” leads. Jung-jae is the most crucial part of this show, and he chose wisely with his submitted episode, which finds him interacting with Player 1 and trying to figure out a way to save a man who has been nothing but kind to him. I think that’s enough to net him the win, even if it’s not a done deal.

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill, Better Call Saul (Plan and Execution)
It’s hard to believe that Odenkirk, who was nominated for the first four seasons of his show, was passed over for an incredible season five. Fortunately, he’s back now for the first half of season six, and while its nomination haul wasn’t all that fantastic, the back half of the season, which will be eligible next year, aired during voting. Given the strong reception that the Hollywood Critics Association gave the show with its TV awards last month, I think Odenkirk has a much better shot than initially expected. His episode submission is also very strong, which doesn’t hurt.

Adam Scott as Mark Scout, Severance (Good News About Hell)
There are many people, myself included, who believe that Scott should have received multiple nominations for his work on “Parks and Recreation. It’s so great to see him honored now for a very different role, or really, two roles, which he plays so marvelously. His show did better than expected with nominations and a win for him would be a huge endorsement of its quality. I think it’s still a bit too under-the-radar, but it is possible that he could upset.

Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy, Succession (Too Much Birthday)
Strong won this award for his show’s second season and now returns for its third. Reports of his method acting being a bit too intense seem not to have deterred voters, and his submitted episode allows him to be even more off-the-wall and invested in his character’s delusions (its title says it all). He managed to beat his costar and onscreen father Brian Cox last time, and he might be able to pull off the same thing again.

Who should win (based on entire season): Odenkirk or Scott
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Odenkirk
Who will win: I think Jung-jae can win this.

Next up: Best Limited or Anthology Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 5/6

I noticed in the alphabetical announcement of these nominees that Sterling K. Brown had been snubbed, which I didn’t realize was the first sign of an almost complete shut-out for his series. The only nominee I didn’t predict here was Adam Scott (Severance), and I’m very happy to see him included. It’s also great to welcome back Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) after he was unreasonably left off the list for his show’s previous season, and I worried that Jason Bateman (Ozark), once again also a directing nominee this year, would be left off for his show’s final season after seeing others predict that same fate. Brian Cox (Succession) and Jeremy Strong (Succession) are both back, no surprise, as the two leads from the most-nominated show this year, and they’re joined by Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), whose show performed very well, especially in the acting categories.

Who should win? I need to finish watching “Squid Game” but I think I’d actually go with Bateman even though they’re all fine choices.
Who will win? I predict Jung-jae takes it at this point.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Josh O’Connor, Sterling K. Brown, Jonathan Majors, Matthew Rhys, Regé-Jean Page, Billy Porter

The competition: Last year, I got a perfect score in this category, and I’m hoping to do the same again this time, though it would mean some deserving contenders would get left off. Just one man from last year’s list is eligible, and for the last time - Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us). There are three men whose shows returned this season, and it would be very surprising for them to miss: Jeremy Strong (Succession), Brian Cox (Succession), and for the final season of his show, Jason Bateman (Ozark). For Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) to be snubbed again after it happened the last time he was eligible would be a shock. The most promising newcomer is Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), though it’s worth noting that Adam Scott (Severance) is a late-breaking contender whose show wasn’t eligible for year-end awards. I’d love to see Tom Hiddleston (Loki) here but don’t feel like it’s likely, and other big names who might break through include Kevin Costner (Yellowstone), Jeff Daniels (American Rust), and Gary Oldman (Slow Horses). Watch out also for past nominees Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) and Michael C. Hall (Dexter: New Blood).

The predicted nominees: Bateman, Brown, Cox, Jung-Jae, Odenkirk, Strong

The predicted winner: I think Bateman may end up winning.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

I've had the pleasure of covering some of the Emmy races for Awards Radar this year. Click here to read my detailed analysis and predictions for this category.

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 6/6

Here we have one of my only perfect scores, so don’t be fooled because it’s the first category I’m writing about today. Five of the nominees are on shows nominated for Best Drama Series, starting with past winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and Josh O’Connor (The Crown) from the nominations leader. Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton) is his show’s only acting nominee, while Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason), whose show missed the top category, is one of his series’ only representatives in any category. Billy Porter (Pose) is finally in good company with costar Mj Rodriguez nominated for best actress, and it’s good to see Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country) too given that his inclusion was not a sure thing.

Who should win? I don’t watch Page’s show but the rest are all great choices. I’d pick Porter. Who will win? I see this going to O’Connor without much trouble unless Porter wins again.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 13th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Steve Carell, Brian Cox, Billy Porter, Jeremy Strong

The competition: Two of last year’s nominees are eligible this time around: four-time nominee and past winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and another past winner, Billy Porter (Pose), who’s eligible for the third and final time. They’re all but guaranteed to return, and it’s possible that Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), who missed out last year for the first time after three consecutive bids, might too. Though he was eligible in the supporting category last year and missed the cut, Josh O’Connor (The Crown) is sure to show up this year. SAG nominee Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton) is likely too, as is a past Emmy winner and a Globe nominee this past year, Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason). He didn’t earn love from either the Globes or SAG, but Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country) is a popular actor on an acclaimed show. Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) was nominated in the supporting category for the second season of his show and earned a promotion for season four, and if the show is received positively overall, he’d be an easy choice. Christopher Meloni (Law and Order: Organized Crime) was nominated fifteen years ago for playing Detective Elliot Stabler, and starring in a new show in the same beloved role could bring him back to the race. If Justin Theroux (The Mosquito Coast) couldn’t get nominated for the incredible “The Leftovers,” I don’t know how he’ll make it in for a series that wasn’t as universally admired, though he is terrific. Disney Plus enthusiasm could catapult Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian), Anthony Mackie (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), or Sebastian Stan (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) to a nomination, but I doubt there’s room for all three of them. If their show does well in other races, Antony Starr (The Boys) and Karl Urban (The Boys) are also possible.

The predicted nominees: Brown, Majors, O’Connor, Page, Porter, Rhys

The predicted winner: I think this goes to O’Connor, but I’m not sure.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This is the first category of the 14th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2019-2020 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Diego Luna, Richard Madden, Bob Odenkirk, Billy Porter, J.K. Simmons

Emmy nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Steve Carell, Brian Cox, Billy Porter, Jeremy Strong

Finalists: Aaron Paul (Westworld), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Jeremy Strong (Succession), Jason Bateman (Ozark), Brian Cox (Succession), Ioan Gruffudd (Liar)

The nominees:

Ben Kingsley (Perpetual Grace, LTD)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Billy Porter (Pose)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)

The winner:

Tobias Menzies (The Crown) conveyed a deep dissatisfaction with the inflexible nature of a tremendous amount of power, showing Prince Philip’s extraordinary passion for a life he felt he missed out on living.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

I've had the pleasure of covering some of the Emmy races for The Film Experience this year. Click here to read my detailed analysis and predictions for this category.

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 4/6, picking Menzies and Odenkirk over Brown and Carell

Last year, the big snub in this category was Richard Madden for “Bodyguard,” and now we have something even more unthinkable: Bob Odenkirk, who had his best year yet on “Better Call Saul” and somehow didn’t make the cut. I’m also very disappointed about Tobias Menzies missing for “The Crown” since he was a huge part of what made this season so strong. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) managed to stay in as the only regular cast member from his show nominated this year, which I don’t have a problem with even though I’d have chosen Justin Hartley for this season. I am more surprised about Steve Carell (The Morning Show), who was very good but really isn’t a lead. After watching their seasons in full for the first time, I can understand why Brian Cox (Succession), Jeremy Strong (Succession), and Jason Bateman (Ozark) are here, and I’m all for it. I’m relieved that Billy Porter (Pose) made it in but I’m sad that his show was omitted from the top category since this season really was formidable.

Who should win? This really is a strong list. I’d probably choose Cox or Porter at this point. Who will win? I think Cox takes it, but Strong might give him a challenge.

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This is the first category of the 13th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2018-2019 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Paul Bettany, Taylor Kitsch, Rami Malek, Giovanni Ribisi, J.K. Simmons

Emmy nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Kit Harington, Bob Odenkirk, Billy Porter, Milo Ventimiglia

Finalists: None

The nominees:

Billy Porter (Pose)
J.K. Simmons (Counterpart)
Diego Luna (Narcos: Mexico)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

The winner:

Richard Madden (Bodyguard) was immensely focused, always ready to spring into action, and the character was enhanced by the conflicted loyalties he demonstrated as he navigated the contradictions of his duties.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde, Ozark (Reparations)
This is Bateman’s second consecutive nomination, both in this category and for directing his submitted episode. He was nominated previously in 2005 and 2013 for “Arrested Development.” Last year, I didn’t think he could win because his show wasn’t represented elsewhere, but this time around, his two costars are up, as is his show in the top category. He won the SAG Award this past year, but the winner of that award loses the Emmy much more often than he wins it. The season two premiere finds Marty dealing with many crises all around him, displaying Bateman’s ability to handle drama with the right amount of snark. Without a definitive frontrunner, this could well be Bateman’s opportunity to win.

Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson, This Is Us (R and B)
This is Brown’s third consecutive nomination for this role. Brown won this award two years ago and another Emmy the year before that for “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” In its third year, his show performed pretty much as strongly in the nominations as is in the past. I predicted Brown to repeat last year, which he didn’t, and now he’s submitted a powerhouse installment that shows a younger version of him and then him struggling to keep his marriage together. In a year with no clear frontrunner here, Brown could easily be the default winner.

Kit Harington as Jon Snow, Game of Thrones (The Iron Throne)
This is the second nomination for Harington, who last contended in the supporting race for his show’s sixth season and failed to be nominated for its seventh when he switched to the lead category. As one of the most likeable and most prominent faces in the blockbuster final season of HBO’s epic fantasy series, Harington certainly has buzz going for him. Given how Emmy voters showered his show with nominations, he will definitely have fans, but ardent supporters of the show may be reluctant to reward his choice of the series finale, which many didn’t love. It’s still a formidable showcase of Harington’s work, and his name being called wouldn’t be a surprise.

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill, Better Call Saul (Winner)
This is the fourth nomination for Odenkirk, who was nominated for the first three seasons of his show, which took last season off. He was previously nominated and won for writing work on sketch shows. His show still has a solid number of nominations, and many think that this is the year Odenkirk can finally win. His selection of the season finale, which shows him perpetrating schemes and putting on a forceful performance to save his law degree, is indeed a great one, and the only thing stopping him from being the frontrunner is that his show just isn’t all that buzzy.

Billy Porter as Pray Tell, Pose (Love is the Message)
This is Porter’s first Emmy nomination. His show contends for Best Drama Series and a few technical trophies. Being the only member of his cast nominated doesn’t necessarily help him, especially since every other nominee here is joined by at least two costars in other categories, but that didn’t stop Jeff Daniels from winning for “The Newsroom.” Porter’s submission is a knockout, showing an intimate side of him in addition to his announcer gig and giving him a formidable chance to sing. His show has an ardent fan base and might just be able to win.

Milo Ventimiglia as Jack Pearson, This Is Us (Sometimes)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Ventimiglia, who lost to costar Brown two years ago. He’s had better episodes to submit in the past, some of which he’s chosen and others that he hasn’t, and the one he picked this time probably won’t win viewers over since it requires more knowledge of his character and some work to determine which time period is being featured since it jumps around considerably. His show isn’t hot this year, and there’s nothing about this episode that will propel him to the top of anyone but a devoted fan’s ballot.

Who should win (based on entire season): Porter or Odenkirk
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Porter
Who will win: There isn’t really a frontrunner here since Richard Madden was snubbed. I’m going to pick Porter over Odenkirk and Bateman, though Brown could also be a default choice if no one else has enough support. I don’t think Harington will win even if his show sweeps.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 5/6, missing Porter

Here we have one of our biggest snubs – Richard Madden, whose show managed to score in the top race without him! His omission is truly puzzling. The six men who did get nominated all have their shows recognized there too. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) are both back, along with Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) and Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) both returning after a season off the air and a season of not being nominated following his promotion to this category. Jason Bateman (Ozark) has cause for celebration, with his show performing much better this year, and he’s joined by the lone freshman nominee and sole representative of his show, Billy Porter (Pose). I don’t watch those last two shows, so I’ll be doing some sampling soon.

Who should win? Of the performances I’ve seen, I’d probably pick Odenkirk, but I’m fine with any of them.
Who will win? Everyone thinks it will be Odenkirk, and with Golden Globe winner Madden out of the way, it probably will be.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 16th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Ed Harris, Matthew Rhys, Milo Ventimiglia, Jeffrey Wright

The competition: Like last year, three of the contenders aren’t eligible this time around. Defending champ Matthew Rhys’ series ended last season, while “Westworld” won’t be back until sometime in 2020, leaving Ed Harris and Jeffrey Wright out of contention. It’s fair to assume that the other half of the slate will be back, though it’s possible enthusiasm could be waning for Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), though Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) is a safer bet. Jason Bateman (Ozark) did well with the Golden Globes and SAG, and so he should make the cut too. A nominee from two years ago, Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), is a sure thing now that his show is eligible again. It’s possible that Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan), left off the list for the first time last year after multiple nominations, could return, and, as long as there isn’t backlash from those frustrated with his show’s final season, past supporting nominee Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) might also joint the list. There are a handful of new contenders vying for recognition, including Globe nominees Stephan James (Homecoming), Billy Porter (Pose), and winner Richard Madden (Bodyguard) and SAG nominee John Krasinski (Jack Ryan), though it will depend on how their shows are received by voters. Other possibilities include Brian Cox (Succession), Kevin Costner (Yellowstone), and, my personal favorite, J.K. Simmons (Counterpart).

The predicted nominees: Bateman, Brown, Harington, Madden, Odenkirk, Ventimiglia

The predicted winner: If he’s nominated, I think Madden takes it over his former costar Harington, who will also net votes, though many believe it will be a battle between Odenkirk and Bateman.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This is the first category of the 12th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2017-2018 season. This year, I’m including a shorter list, with just nominees and a few finalists, if applicable. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Rami Malek, Giovanni Ribisi, Dan Stevens, Billy Bob Thornton, Finn Wolfhard

Emmy nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Ed Harris, Matthew Rhys, Milo Ventimiglia, Jeffrey Wright

Finalists: Dan Stevens (Legion), Finn Wolfhard (Stranger Things), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

The nominees:
Paul Bettany (Manhunt: Unabomber)
Taylor Kitsch (Waco)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete)

The winner:

J.K. Simmons (Counterpart) delivered an incredible dual performance, portraying two characters whose identical looks made his ability to separate them into different people all the more mesmerizing.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde, Ozark (The Toll)
Bateman was nominated previously in 2005 and 2013 for “Arrested Development,” and contends also for directing the episode he submitted. When I watched the pilot, I wasn’t impressed with Bateman’s casting, but he does do a better job later on. I might actually have chosen the other episode nominated for directing, “Tonight We Improvise,” for him instead, but this is a fine submission. His show didn’t do nearly well enough in other categories for it to propel him to a win, something that would only happen if voters can’t decide on another clear winner.

Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson, This Is Us (Number Three)
Brown won this award last year and another Emmy the year before that for “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Brown has automatic frontrunner status because his show continues to be popular and no one is a truly serious challenger to him, but he’s still not a lock. His submitted episode, which isn’t part of his show’s six episodes chosen for Best Drama Series, highlights his strained relationship with his foster daughter while he imagines what it might have been like to have his birth father in his. It’s certainly not as strong a submission as last year, but I think he’ll probably still win.

Ed Harris as The Man in Black, Westworld (Vanishing Point)
Harris’ inclusion here comes as a surprise given his snub in the supporting race last year and the fact that his character is very, very hard to like. Harris was previously nominated in 2005 for miniseries “Empire Falls” and in 2012 for TV movie “Game Change.” Harris’s submitted episode is the one that might paint him in the most sympathetic light because it reveals the long-referenced decline of his wife, but he’s also still a pretty horrible person. The part isn’t as complex as costar Wright’s, and so I would be genuinely shocked if Harris’ name was called.

Matthew Rhys as Philip Jennings, The Americans (START)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Rhys, whose show returns to the Best Drama Series lineup for its final season. I’ve been reading a lot of prognosticators who say that Rhys may win this year, with plenty of favor built up over the course of the show. His submission of the series finale, in which he has to take his situation at face value and improvise, is a strong one. His circumstances are most comparable to Kyle Chandler’s, as he managed to prevail for the last season of his show after waiting a few seasons to even be nominated. He certainly has a shot to upset.

Milo Ventimiglia as Jack Pearson, This Is Us (The Car)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Ventimiglia, who is now the only series regular nominated alongside Brown, who won this award last year and contends again this time. I thought that Ventimiglia would win if he got nominated, but I expected him to submit the Superbowl episode, not the one after it that reviews all the things that Jack taught his children. He’s still a good bet, but it’s not the shoo-in I had originally thought, especially since the show didn’t perform in other categories as well as expected.

Jeffrey Wright as Dr. Bernard Shaw, Westworld (The Passenger)
Wright was nominated in the supporting category for this role last year and won an Emmy back in 2004 for “Angels in America.” Wright’s prominence in season two only increased, and he wisely submitted the season finale which reveals much of what even he didn’t realize that he had done. Wright is indisputably excellent, but I’m not sure the casual viewer will appreciate the complexity of his performance and that fans will be eager to vote for the star of a less solid second season.

Who should win (based on entire season): Wright or Brown
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Wright or Brown
Who will win: Most people seem to think that Rhys is going to be able to edge out Brown, but I’m sticking with the latter.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 4/6, picking Kit Harington and J.K. Simmons over Bateman and Harris

I’ll admit that I’m surprised by one inclusion in this category: Ed Harris (Westworld), who I had predicted to be nominated last year in the supporting race and didn’t expect would now show up this year in a more contested race. I also may have to check out some of the work of Jason Bateman (Ozark) if he submitted anything other than the pilot. The other four were expected repeat nominees from last year, with Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) earning a promotion to the lead race and joining Matthew Rhys (The Americans) on his final nomination and Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) and last year’s winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us). I’m disappointed that J.K. Simmons didn’t make the cut – he would have been a great addition to this category. Also of note is that Freddie Highmore wasn't nominated, but I didn't expect his series to be true Emmy fare.

Who should win? I can’t comment much on Bateman’s performance, but I think I’d probably give this to Wright.
Who will win? My money is on Ventimiglia.

Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Sterling K. Brown, Anthony Hopkins, Bob Odenkirk, Matthew Rhys, Liev Schreiber, Kevin Spacey, Milo Ventimiglia

The competition: This category is going to get a shakeup with three of last year’s nominees aren’t eligible. Even if his show had aired a season with him in it, Spacey wouldn’t be back. Odenkirk’s show will be back in August, and Hopkins isn’t a lead on his show anymore. In Hopkins’ place, last year’s supporting nominee Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) should earn the promotion, while Ed Harris (Westworld), left off the supporting list last year, will probably miss out again. Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) has managed three consecutive nominations with almost no other support for his show, and his annual inclusion feels tentative at best. Matthew Rhys (The Americans) is likely to return for the final season of his show, but he’s not a lock. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), last year’s winner, will probably repeat, and his costar Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) has a good shot at another nomination. Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) earned his first Emmy bid, in the supporting race, the last time his show was eligible back in 2016, and his promotion to the lead category should earn him a place here. Jason Bateman (Ozark), a two-time nominee for “Arrested Development,” picked up both Golden Globe and SAG bids for his performance on the streaming drama and shouldn’t have much trouble getting nominated here. Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor) was honored at the Golden Globes with a mention for his freshman series and could show up in this category, though it’s far from a guarantee. I’m still shocked that Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), who won this award two years ago, wasn’t even nominated last year, and so I’m pulling for his return. Donald Sutherland (Trust) is a possibility if audiences aren’t tired of the Getty saga that earned Christopher Plummer an Oscar nomination last year for the same role. Dark horses include Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter) and James Franco (The Deuce), who haven’t earned the accolades many expected despite positive reviews for their shows and performances. I’m rooting for someone else - J.K. Simmons (Counterpart) – who astounded with a double turn on his Starz show and will hopefully muster the support the recent Oscar winner needs to earn his first Emmy nomination.

The predicted nominees: Brown, Harington, Rhys, Simmons, Ventimiglia, Wright

The predicted winner: Based on episode submissions, I think that Ventimiglia could actually take this one home.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

AFT Awards: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This is the first category of the 11th Annual AFT Television Awards, my personal choices for the best in television during the 2016-2017 season. Finalists and semi-finalists are included to recognize more of the impressive work done on television today. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Rami Malek, Jake McDorman, Wagner Moura, Bob Odenkirk, Liev Schreiber, Justin Theroux

Emmy nominees: Sterling K. Brown, Anthony Hopkins, Bob Odenkirk, Matthew Rhys, Liev Schreiber, Kevin Spacey, Milo Ventimiglia

Semi-finalists: Aaron Stanford (12 Monkeys), Aden Young (Rectify), Anthony Hopkins (Westworld), Clark Gregg (Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.), Grant Gustin (The Flash), Justin Theroux (The Leftovers), Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), Mike Colter (Luke Cage), Paul Giammati (Billions), Pedro Pescal (Narcos), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

Finalists: Robbie Coltrane (National Treasure) grasped such depth of his disgraced, aging celebrity that even he wasn’t sure of his innocence. Wagner Moura (Narcos) was a shell of his former self, on the run but just as mesmerizingly commanding. Damian Lewis (Billions) didn’t let up on his quest for dominance of every domain, letting the fire of furious ambition guide him to victory after victory. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) was electric to watch as he dove right into a new career without ever stopping to acknowledge what was really going on around him. Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) pivoted his stone-cold fixer towards a more centered, compassionate person unsure of how much he could continue to invest in his work.

The nominees:

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) remained marvelously trapped within his own fractured perception of the world, tunneling further into his tech-centered self. Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath) charged headfirst into every fight he could find with a fearless and incomparably calm arrogance. Finn Wolfhard (Stranger Things) was a great hero for his show, always committed to doing the right thing and sticking by his friends above all. Giovanni Ribisi (Sneaky Pete) was a true chameleon, assuming new identities with ease and embedding himself deep in the con.

The winner:

Dan Stevens (Legion) has come a long way from being dressed by a butler on “Downton Abbey,” now completely captivating as a schizophrenic whose own amazement at new revelations about his true mental state was one of his most fascinating traits.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson, This Is Us (Memphis)
Brown won an Emmy last year for his supporting performance as Christopher Darden in “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” He was a hit even before this show started, and it’s pretty beloved by people. While it might not have the same cinematic gravitas – even if it does have the emotional weight – as some of the other shows, Brown’s sentimental performance, especially in this episode where he takes one final road trip with his father, cements him as having frontrunner status.

Anthony Hopkins as Dr. Robert Ford, Westworld (Trompe L’Oeil)
Oscar winner Hopkins has been nominated four times for before, all for miniseries or TV movie work. He won in 1976 and 1981, for “The Lindberg Kidnapping Case” and “The Bunker,” respectively. Hopkins’ first regular TV role in forty-five years puts him in a deceptively background role as the architect of the western landscape that serves as a violent escape for many. Without spoiling much, this episode reveals Dr. Ford to be much more complicit in evils than it previously seemed, especially related to Bernard. He’s great, but I still think his role isn’t featured enough, even compared to other players in this same episode, for the revered actor to win.

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill, Better Call Saul (Expenses)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Odenkirk, who was previously nominated and won for writing work on sketch shows. This year, Odenkirk had a handful of hours to pick from, and instead of opting for anything that directly involves the drama with his onscreen brother, he chose the episode in which he tried to break into the advertising business with some questionable negotiating. Pundits seem to think that he could triumph over Brown, and I get it, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Liev Schreiber as Ray Donovan, Ray Donovan (Rattus Rattus)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Schreiber, the star of a terrific Showtime series that for some reason doesn’t get love in a lot of other categories. Schreiber has also has a second nod this year for narrating “Muhammad Ali: Only One.” It would be hard for Schreiber to win this since his show isn’t up for Best Drama Series. The season finale was typical Ray, though it also showed him become a concerned parent actually, for once, putting his family first. It’s a great submission, but he won’t win this year.

Matthew Rhys as Philip Jennings, The Americans (Crossbreed)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Rhys, who is also nominated this year for his guest appearance on “Girls.” Unfortunately for Rhys, his show didn’t manage a repeat nod in the Best Drama Series race, which decreases the likelihood of him winning considerably. His submitted episode finds him grappling with new information about his father, which is good material, but it’s hard to relate to for casual viewers.

Kevin Spacey as Frank Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 53)
Spacey is nominated for the fifth year in a row. He’s won both a Golden Globe and a SAG for his performance as President Frank Underwood, but his show still hasn’t managed to win a major Emmy, losing all thirteen of its bids last year. Many are surprised the show is still nominated, so I wouldn’t picture Spacey winning this year, but he is the type of actor who could win anytime since it’s really quite the performance. His submission of the season premiere is full-on Frank, boldly shouting at Congress to declare war.

Milo Ventimiglia as Jack Pearson, This Is Us (Moonshadow)
The former star of “Heroes” and “Gilmore Girls” took on a more mature role this past year as the patriarch of the family on NBC’s much-beloved show, appearing only in flashbacks as he navigates the roles of husband and father. The season finale is probably the smartest submission for Ventimiglia aside from the premiere, since it shows him at a younger age being set on the right path by meeting his future wife. There’s no way that he’ll get votes over costar Brown, so consider his nomination the victory.

Who should win (based on entire season): Odenkirk, Hopkins, or Spacey
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Odenkirk, Hopkins, or Spacey
Who will win: This is a tough race, but I think that Brown will be able to pull off the win here. I don’t think any of his competition has what they need to beat him.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Nominees: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 5/7, picking Rami Malek over Odenkirk and Ventimiglia

I noticed as the nominations were being announced that they skipped over Malek’s name alphabetically and was deeply concerned. It’s a crazy thing that last year’s winner wasn’t recognized, especially since the show didn’t experience a huge drop in quality or anything like that. It’s also a shame that in a category with an extra nominee, there wasn’t even a place for him. I’m glad that Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) didn’t get left off the list even though I predicted it, and it’s nice to see that Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) has now become a regular face in this category. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) made the cut again, as did Matthew Rhys (The Americans), whose show didn’t perform nearly as well as it did last year. Anthony Hopkins (Westworld) represented his show, which scored in all four major acting categories. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) was an expected choice, and I can get behind his nomination a lot more than I can the surprising inclusion of Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), who was a fan favorite but still didn’t merit Emmy recognition for this role. An interesting list at best, but it’s missing some key names.

Who should win? For this season, I think I’d give it to either Schreiber of Spacey, though a strong case can also be made for Hopkins.
Who will win? I think this should easily be Brown’s for the taking since I don’t see any of the others having enough momentum to win.