Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 12th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Sterling K. Brown, Anthony Hopkins, Bob Odenkirk, Matthew Rhys, Liev Schreiber, Kevin Spacey, Milo Ventimiglia

The competition: This category is going to get a shakeup with three of last year’s nominees aren’t eligible. Even if his show had aired a season with him in it, Spacey wouldn’t be back. Odenkirk’s show will be back in August, and Hopkins isn’t a lead on his show anymore. In Hopkins’ place, last year’s supporting nominee Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) should earn the promotion, while Ed Harris (Westworld), left off the supporting list last year, will probably miss out again. Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) has managed three consecutive nominations with almost no other support for his show, and his annual inclusion feels tentative at best. Matthew Rhys (The Americans) is likely to return for the final season of his show, but he’s not a lock. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), last year’s winner, will probably repeat, and his costar Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) has a good shot at another nomination. Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) earned his first Emmy bid, in the supporting race, the last time his show was eligible back in 2016, and his promotion to the lead category should earn him a place here. Jason Bateman (Ozark), a two-time nominee for “Arrested Development,” picked up both Golden Globe and SAG bids for his performance on the streaming drama and shouldn’t have much trouble getting nominated here. Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor) was honored at the Golden Globes with a mention for his freshman series and could show up in this category, though it’s far from a guarantee. I’m still shocked that Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), who won this award two years ago, wasn’t even nominated last year, and so I’m pulling for his return. Donald Sutherland (Trust) is a possibility if audiences aren’t tired of the Getty saga that earned Christopher Plummer an Oscar nomination last year for the same role. Dark horses include Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter) and James Franco (The Deuce), who haven’t earned the accolades many expected despite positive reviews for their shows and performances. I’m rooting for someone else - J.K. Simmons (Counterpart) – who astounded with a double turn on his Starz show and will hopefully muster the support the recent Oscar winner needs to earn his first Emmy nomination.

The predicted nominees: Brown, Harington, Rhys, Simmons, Ventimiglia, Wright

The predicted winner: Based on episode submissions, I think that Ventimiglia could actually take this one home.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series