Emmy Reactions

Now that’s a rare occasion: an awards show that actually ends on time. I’m never rooting for that, especially in this case because I’m on the west coast and this is much earlier than I’ve experienced an awards show ending before. All in all, it was a good night, and I’m pretty happy with most of the winners. We’ll get back to that in a moment. I enjoyed watching Michael Che and Colin Jost on “Saturday Night Live,” but they’re better at just delivering one-liners than actually hosting a show like this. Their bit about hundreds of people watching at home was funny, and only Jaleel White and Bryan Cranston managed to save the “Reparation Emmys.” It was also very weird that they had the presenters come out after the nominees were announced each time. I’m all for the many clips that played (before they incorrectly thought they were out of time and rushed through the variety talk series nominees), but it feels more natural to have the presenters out there first. They also didn’t have the guest acting winners present together, with Katt Williams absent (unless I’m mistaken), but it actually worked out sweetly to have Samira Wiley present with Elisabeth Moss (but for the unfortunate loss of all three of their shows’ nominees in that category) and Ron Cephas Jones make dad jokes with Ron Cephas Jones. Of the many presenters, I most enjoyed Sandra Oh’s enthusiasm while she tried to announce “La La Land” as the winner, a high compliment given that the joke has been made before and the Queer Eye guys giving fashion tips to the Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series nominees. Here are some other takeaways:

- I’m thrilled that “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and “Barry” split all the comedy wins, leaving “Atlanta” shut out. I missed only Henry Winkler, picking Tony Shalhoub instead, and even though I would have honored a different “Barry” actor, Anthony Carrigan, I’m all for it, especially because of how happy Winkler was and everyone was for him. Alex Borstein and Amy Sherman-Palladino are both a bit strange, as is Bill Hader, and Rachel Brosnahan urging people to go vote was cool. It’s nice to see all new series win in these categories!
- I watched a bit of most of the miniseries/TV movie nominees but not enough to truly be invested. I was happy for Merritt Wever because I like her a lot, and Jeff Daniels was subdued and blunt as usual. Regina King has won three awards in four years, which is impressive, though I was hoping “The Tale” would be recognized in some form with a win for Laura Dern. Ryan Murphy also shouldn’t be shocked that he won his fifth Emmy, though it is only his second for directing, after the pilot of “Glee” nine years ago.
- I don’t care much about the variety and talk series and not at all about reality, and I wish those would have happened much earlier in the show. That’s why I’m writing about them now. John Mulaney saying that his wife was too busy to fly across the country to watch him lose was funny, and of course the director of the Oscars proposing on air was very sweet. If anyone has the right to do it, it’s the director of an event like the Oscars.
- And then we have drama. I was all about Thandie Newton winning last year, and it’s good that she got recognized now for what was admittedly an equally strong performance. It’s just a shame that Yvonne Strahovski didn’t win for her performance this year. Without any frontrunner in the supporting actor category, Peter Dinklage was a fine default choice. I found myself happy for “The Americans” with its writing win even though I’m not a big fan of the show, and it was nice that he thanked the television critics for keeping it on the air. I’m also okay with Matthew Rhys since there was no one in best actor that I was all about, and Sterling K. Brown won last year. Similarly, good for Claire Foy, who sweetly said goodbye to the character while the show goes on, and “The Crown” even picked up a directing trophy which wasn’t expected. Last but not least, it seemed like it could be “The Americans” over “The Handmaid’s Tale,” and then “Game of Thrones” took it instead, allowing the wealth to be spread decently in the drama categories. I’m more than okay with that.
- Finally, I scored 18/26. I did better last year but not the few years before that, but most importantly, according to GoldDerby, my predictions ranked 15 out of about 3000, which is pretty awesome!

What’s next? My own choices for the best in this past television season, the AFT Television Awards, begin tomorrow! I’ll be posting the nominees and winners over the next week or so, mixed in with some regular television episode and pilot reviews! Stay tuned, and stick around!

Final Emmy Winner Predictions

I’m in Los Angeles for the Emmys for the first time in a long time, if not ever, and therefore I’ll be sitting down to watch this show at 5pm and done with it at exactly the time I’d usually start. Though that precludes me from watching it with friends who have to be at work, I don’t mind getting an earlier start on the evening.

Going into tonight, we actually have a number of competitive races, and I’m betting against some of the frontrunners. I’m actually 0/4 on the guest categories, with Ron Cephas Jones, Samira Wiley, Katt Williams, and Tiffany Haddish triumphing. I could have seen the first and last ones but was very surprised by the middle two. Either way, it shouldn’t have much bearing on tonight, other than to give Wiley and Williams’ shows, “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Atlanta,” respectively, a bit of a boost.

Best Drama Series is a dead heat between “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Game of Thrones.” I thought both were terrific, so I don’t really mind which one wins, though I am rooting most strongly for Yvonne Strahovski to win since I think she was superb and deserves a win. Best Comedy Series is so close between “Atlanta” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” and I really prefer the latter. I’d also love to see “Barry” pick up a few wins.

For the other categories, I don’t know much, since I just watched the first hours of “The Alieniest,” “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” “Godless,” and “Patrick Melrose,” and didn’t love any of them. I’ve also sampled “Twin Peaks,” “The Looming Tower,” and “American Vandal,” which are all up for other awards, and none of those impressed me much. Only “Waco,” which picked up an acting nomination for supporting actor John Leguizamo, who was far from the best part of that project, did I watch in its entirety and enjoy, along with “The Tale,” which was a movie back when I saw it at Sundance in January. I haven’t seen “U.S.S. Callister: Black Mirror,” which already picked up the Best TV Movie award last week at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, though I’ve heard terrific things, and as a result I will be considerably less invested in all of the categories not related to drama and comedy series.

As always, I’m excited for the show, and will post some brief reactions either immediately afterwards or the next morning. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.

No guts, no glory (last year, my choice of Ann Dowd was right!):
Betty Gilpin wins for “GLOW”

DRAMA SERIES:
The Handmaid’s Tale

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Claire Foy (The Crown)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale)

DRAMA DIRECTING:
The Dragon and the Wolf (Game of Thrones)

DRAMA WRITING:
START (The Americans)

COMEDY SERIES:
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Bill Hader (Barry)

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

COMEDY DIRECTING:
Pilot (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

COMEDY WRITING:
Pilot (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

LIMITED SERIES:
The Assassination of Gianni Versace

TV MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR:
Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace)

TV MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS:
Laura Dern (The Tale)

TV MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jeff Daniels (Godless)

TV MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace)

TV MOVIE/LIMITED DIRECTING:
The Assassination of Gianni Versace

TV MOVIE/LIMITED WRITING:
U.S.S. Callister: Black Mirror

VARIETY TALK SERIES:
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

VARIETY SKETCH SERIES:
Saturday Night Live

VARIETY DIRECTING:
The Oscars

VARIETY WRITING:
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American Puerto Rico

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

ATLANTA
“Alligator Man,” “Sportin’ Waves,” “Money Bag Shawty,” “Barbershop,” “Teddy Perkins,” “North of the Border”

This is the second consecutive nomination for FX’s dark comedy, which grew its nominations count exponentially from six to sixteen this year. This list interestingly doesn’t include “FUBU,” which star Donald Glover is nominated for directing. I only really liked two of these episodes – “Money Bag Shawty” and “North of the Border” – but I recognize that I’m in the minority with this show, which most people seem to love. It’s a peculiar but apparently effective list, and doubting the nominations leader is never a smart move. This show is definitely poised for a win; we’ll just have to see if either of the two new hot shows can eclipse it.

BARRY
“Chapter One: Make Your Mark,” “Chapter Four: Commit… To YOU,” “Chapter Five: Do Your Job,” “Chapter Six: Listen with Your Ears, React with Your Face,” “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going,” “Chapter Eight: Know Your Truth”

I couldn’t be happier that this terrific new HBO comedy series made the cut in this category, picking up a very impressive thirteen overall bids. With just eight episodes in its run, this show didn’t have to lead many out, opting to dismiss its second and third installments. They’re all great half-hours, and I don’t think that too much context is needed to understand why this show has such an effective tone. I’m not sure it has a universal enough appeal to win, but it would be cool and I think people would be excited.

BLACK-ISH
“Juneteenth,” “Mother Nature,” “First and Last,” “Advance to Go (Collect $200),” “R-E-S-P-E-C-T,” “Blue Valentine”

For the first time ever, there’s just one broadcast network series represented in this entire lineup – and it’s this one. On its third consecutive bid in this category, this show is up to its highest haul ever, with five total nominations. In a crowded field, I feel like this one has absolutely no buzz. I’m never particularly impressed by the slate of sample episodes submitted by this show, but this year’s felt especially underwhelming, with the final, entirely serious episode proving least satisfying. I guess it has a better shot than a few other nominees without any heat right now, but not by much.

CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
“Foisted!,” “A Disturbance in the Kitchen,” “Running with the Bulls,” “Never Wait for Seconds!,” “The Shucker,” “Fatwa!”

This show is back with its first nomination since it last aired in 2012. It’s the eighth time it has contended in this category, missing out only for its debut season. Its nomination total of four is pretty standard, and it definitely entertained people. Most of these episodes are good, though I didn’t love the last two Hamilton-themed installments. This show does deserve credit for being this year’s only show returning from a long absence to crack this category, but I don’t see that being nearly enough to defeat seven other series.


GLOW
“Pilot,” “Debbie Does Something,” “This is One of Those Moments,” “Live Studio Audience,” “Maybe It’s All the Disco,” “Money’s in the Chase”

Netflix’s comedy about the making of a female wrestling series landed ten nominations but missed out on key bids for stars Alison Brie and Marc Maron, indicating that it’s not as beloved as the other two nominated freshman series in this category. It’s rare that I sample Emmy episodes of a show I don’t watch and end up loving them, but that’s what happened with this one, which only improved after the pilot, the weakest of an otherwise fantastic slate. I don’t think this series performed well enough to beat the other shows nominated in this category, but I’d honestly be perfectly happy to see that happen.

THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
“Pilot,” “Ya Shivu v Bolshom Dome Na Kholme,” “Because You Left,” “The Disappointment of the Dionne Quintuplets,” “Put That on Your Plate,” “Thank You and Good Night”

This freshman Amazon comedy was a smash success when it debuted, earning a two-season commitment and taking home the Golden Globe, BFCA, and PGA Awards for Best Comedy Series. Its fourteen-nomination total is the second-highest in this category, and it’s likely to a win a few of those awards. Only the second episode was somewhat weak, and interestingly one of its actors’ submitted episodes, “Doink,” isn’t on this list. I think this is a superb showcase representing a creative and enjoyable program, and it’s just a question of if it can beat FX’s returning series.

SILICON VALLEY
“Chief Operating Officer,” “Tech Evangelist,” “Facial Recognition,” “Artificial Emotional Intelligence,” “Initial Coin Offering,” “Fifty-One Percent”

This show is on its fifth consecutive nomination, dropping down to seven nominations after higher totals the past two years. Once again, it’s the only nominee in this category without any cast members nominated, and it’s down to just one directing bid and one writing bid after multiple mentions each of the last few years. The six episodes, of eight total, that it submitted are fine, though I didn’t love “Facial Recognition.” This season felt like the weakest the show has produced yet, and if it hasn’t won up until now, I don’t see any chance that it would this year either.

UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT
“Kimmy Is… Little Girl, Big City,” “Kimmy Has a Weekend,” “Party Monster: Scratching the Surface,” “Kimmy Disrupts the Paradigm,” “Kimmy and the Beest,” “Kimmy Meets an Old Friend”

For what’s technically the first half of this show’s fourth and final season, this series received just one other bid, for supporting actor Tituss Burgess. Though other shows have pulled off the feat of earning just one nomination, in the top category, this series joins a few others as the shortest season to be cited, submitting all six of its aired episodes. I only really cared for “Kimmy Disrupts the Paradigm,” and I feel like this show, the eighth alphabetical nominee, was just tacked on to the list here. Even with a vote-split possible, this show seems very unlikely to win at this point.

What should win (based on entire season): “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” or “Barry”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Barry”
What will win: While “Barry” has a shot, this category is really a battle between the returning show with the most nominations, “Atlanta,” and the freshman revelation, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which I think is going to succesfully win voters over in this and other categories.

Next up: That’s a wrap! Don't miss the show tomorrow night!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

THE AMERICANS
“Dead Hand,” “The Great Patriotic War,” “Harvest,” “The Summit,” “Jennings, Elizabeth,” “START”

FX’s beloved Russian spy drama made the cut two years ago for its fourth season and now returns for its sixth and final year. Its four-nomination haul doesn’t appear to make it much of a threat to win, but there are fans who would love to see it rewarded. Its episodes aren’t bad, and the show grew on me as it went on even if I’m still not overly fond of it. I compare its situation to “Friday Night Lights,” a show that took home a best actor prize and a writing trophy in its final year but still couldn’t make the cut here because Emmy voters just didn’t go nuts for it.

THE CROWN
“Beryl,” “Marionettes,” “Matrimonium,” “Dear Mrs. Kennedy,” “Paterfamilias,” “Mystery Man”

This is the second consecutive nomination for this show and the last for its current cast since it’s jumping forward in history a couple decades for season three. This show scored three wins last year out of thirteen nominations, the same total it contends for this year. These submitted episodes, representing the second season as a whole, really do underline the show’s title as its feature, not just its primary protagonist. I wasn’t quite as taken with the first, Margaret-centric episode, but the rest are all very solid, including the last three episodes of the season that feature a visit by JFK and his wife, a revelation about Philip, and everything coming to a head in the finale. This show doesn’t have the momentum it could have had last year to win, but it’s sure to get some votes, especially for the way in which it presents its events.

GAME OF THRONES
“Stormborn,” “The Queen’s Justice,” “The Spoils of War,” “Eastwatch,” “Beyond the Wall,” “The Dragon and the Wolf”

It’s not too hard to pick six episodes when you air only seven in a season. The premiere is actually the one that wasn’t submitted, but fortunately the other six are all superb, with the sixth, “Beyond the Wall,” which is up for its direction, is my favorite, and the season finale, “The Dragon and the Wolf,” seems to be the most popular, picking up bids for both directing and writing. It’s the most-nominated program this year and took home the most awards the last two years it contended, when it also won Best Drama Series. It’s just a question of whether it can eclipse last year’s winner…

THE HANDMAID’S TALE
“June,” “Unwomen,” “Baggage,” “After,” “Smart Power,” “The Last Ceremony”

Last year’s winner in this category is up from thirteen nominations last year to a staggering twenty this year, all the more impressive because just a few of them are for technical citations. The best episode of season two, its finale, wasn’t eligible because it debuted in July, but this lineup is still superb, with a few standout episodes left off due to the strength of the season as a whole. They’re disturbing and tough to watch, but that’s part of what makes this show so incredible. It will just have to take down HBO’s returning juggernaut and FX’s fan favorite, but I still think it can win.

STRANGER THINGS
“MADMAX,” “Trick or Treat, Freak,” “Will the Wise,” “The Spy,” “The Mind Flayer,” “The Gate”

This show returns for its second consecutive nomination, down from nineteen nominations last year to twelve this time around. I personally preferred year two, though I think voters won’t be paying any attention to this show, which they barely acknowledged last year, giving it five technical trophies. Its submitted episodes are all strong, wisely omitting the seventh chapter that many didn’t like. This represents well the quality this show has to offer, but again, if this show was going to win, it would have been last year when it was riding a high that’s decreased considerably, especially with the delay of season three until 2019.

THIS IS US
“A Father’s Advice,” “Number One,” “The Fifth Wheel,” “Super Bowl Sunday,” “The Car,” “The Wedding”

One of the most beloved shows on television is back with a nomination for its second season, which wasn’t nominated nearly as much this year. Half of these episodes are strong – one that really gets to who Kevin is and why he’s always felt like the fifth wheel, the impactful super-sized Super Bowl episode, and the one after that which traced Jack’s legacy through his purchase of a new car. Of three back-to-back episodes focusing on each child, Number One’s spotlight was the weakest, and neither the season premiere or the season finale impressed me much since they both employed typical manipulative tendencies of this show to drop a huge bombshell clue that takes away from the overall effectiveness of the hour. This show might have won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble in a Best Drama Series, but its chances to win here are slim.

WESTWORLD
“Journey Into Night,” “The Riddle of the Sphinx,” “Akane No Mai,” “Kiksuya,” “Vanishing Point,” “The Passenger”

What we have here is a controversial show that scored five technical wins out of twenty-two total nominations last year and earned a staggering twenty-one nominations this year. I don’t think it’s nearly as well-regarded as it was at first, and the fact that it won pretty much nothing last year suggests that its chances here are extremely limited. The season premiere gets things started, two middle episodes really reframe everything, and the last three take the action to a whole new level. I had somewhat mixed feelings about the two most memorable episodes here, “Akane No Mai,” which took place mostly in Shogun World, and the finale, “The Passenger,” which changed the game entirely. I’m a big fan of this show but I’ll admit season two had some problems. It’s far too divisive to win.

What should win (based on entire season): “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Game of Thrones,” or “Stranger Things”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Game of Thrones,” or “Stranger Things”
What will win: It’s a tight race between two-time champion “Game of Thrones” and the show that won in its absence last year, The Handmaid’s Tale. Watch out for “The Americans” to upset, but I think it will be one of those two.

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Donald Glover, Atlanta (Alligator Man)
Stefani Robinson, Atlanta (Barbershop)
Alec Berg and Bill Hader, Barry (Chapter One: Make Your Mark)
Liz Sarnoff, Barry (Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going)
Amy Sherman-Palladino, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Pilot)
Alec Berg, Silicon Valley (Fifty-One Percent)

Glover was nominated last year, and also contends this year for directing and starring in his show, as does Hader. Sherman-Palladino, previously nominated for a 1992 episode of “Roseanne,” is also up for directing. This is the fifth year in a row that Berg is nominated. The pilot installments of “Barry” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” are also nominated for directing. A show with two nominations hasn’t won since 2013.

What should win: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” or either episode of “Barry”
What will win: I think it will be The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but it could also be the pilot of “Barry.”

Next up: Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series coming this weekend!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Donald Glover, Atlanta (FUBU)
Hiro Murai, Atlanta (Teddy Perkins)
Bill Hader, Barry (Chapter One: Make Your Mark)
Mark Cendrowski, The Big Bang Theory (The Bow Tie Asymmetry)
Jesse Peretz, GLOW (Pilot)
Amy Sherman-Palladino, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Pilot)
Mike Judge, Silicon Valley (Initial Coin Offering)

Glover won this award last year, and he also contends for writing and starring in his show this year. This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Judge. Hader also contends for writing and starring in his show this year, and Sherman-Palladino is also up for writing her episode. This is the first-ever nomination for “The Big Bang Theory,” which is in his eleventh season. The pilot installments of “Barry” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” are also nominated for writing.

What should win: “Barry,” “The Big Bang Theory,” or “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
What will win: Honestly, any of them could win. My bet is The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but it could be either episode of “Atlanta” or “The Big Bang Theory” too.

Next up: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Joel Fields and Joseph Weisberg, The Americans (START)
Peter Morgan, The Crown (Mystery Man)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones (The Dragon and the Wolf)
Bruce Miller, The Handmaid’s Tale (June)
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Killing Eve (Nice Face)
Matt Duffer and Ross Duffer, Stranger Things (Chapter Nine: The Gate)

“The Handmaid’s Tale” and Miller won this award last year, and “Game of Thrones” and Benioff and Weiss took it the two years before that. Fields and Weisberg are back for a third year in a row, and their show returns for its fourth consecutive bid. Morgan and the Duffer brothers were both nominated last year. “The Dragon and the Wolf” and “Chapter Nine: The Gate” are both also up for directing.

What should win: While I’d love to see Waller-Bridge win an Emmy, I didn’t love the pilot of her show. I’d probably choice the season premiere of “The Handmaid’s Tale.”
What will win: It could easily be “The Handmaid’s Tale” again, but I’ll pick the series finale of The Americans to finally score here.

Next up: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Stephen Daldry, The Crown (Paterfamilias)
Alan Taylor, Game of Thrones (Beyond the Wall)
Jeremy Podeswa, Game of Thrones (The Dragon and the Wolf)
Kari Skogland, The Handmaid’s Tale (After)
Jason Bateman, Ozark (The Toll)
Daniel Sackheim, Ozark (Tonight We Improvise)
Matt Duffer and Ross Duffer, Stranger Things (Chapter Nine: The Gate)

“The Handmaid’s Tale” won this award last year, and “Game of Thrones” took it the two years before that. Daldry and the Duffer brothers were nominated last year. Taylor won in 2007 for “The Sopranos” and was nominated the next year for “Mad Men.” Podeswa has two previous nominations, one for “Boardwalk Empire” and one for “Game of Thrones.” Sackheim won this award in 1994 for “NYPD Blue.” Bateman also contends for starring in his show this year. “The Dragon and the Wolf” and “Chapter Nine: The Gate” are both also up for writing. The past three winners have all been from shows with two nominations in this category. Only once in the past decade has the winner of this award not been nominated for Best Drama Series.

What should win: “Beyond the Wall” was one of my top episodes this season.
What will win: I think The Dragon and the Wolf will prevail, but it could be any of them.

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Zazie Beetz as Van Keefer, Atlanta (Helen)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Beetz, who represents one of the staggering sixteen bids her show received for its second season. Beetz, who wasn’t entirely present throughout the season, shines in a huge showcase in her submitted episode, which finds her speaking fluent German and finally speaking up for herself. Like her castmates, it’s not a funny turn, but she definitely has talent and might be able to muster a win if her show sweeps, though this category is extremely packed.

Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Doink)
Borstein was nominated in 2013 for voicing “Family Guy” characters and already won that award this year. Borstein is an undeniably funny and crucial part of her show, serving as the manager for the budding stand-up comic. In her submitted episode, she expresses her rage at her client’s ill-advised decision to try to go with a bigger name. Other prognosticators seem to think that Borstein has a good shot, and I’m tempted to agree. There are a lot of nominees here, but her show is popular and might also sweep.

Aidy Bryant as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Chadwick Boseman)
Bryant is the latest SNL performer to be cited in this category following one previous Emmy bid for music and lyrics in 2014. Bryant is hardly the most prominent cast member on the show, but she does get to be the star of a funny sketch that finds her exhibiting a whole lot of personality in her submitted episode. I just don’t see her edging out two-time defending champ and costar McKinnon or many of the other nominees.

Betty Gilpin as Debbie Eagan, GLOW (Debbie Does Something)
Gilpin managed to be the lone acting nominee from her well-received freshman series despite costars Alison Brie and Marc Maron earning bids from other organizations. It’s easy to see why Gilpin stands out as Debbie, the established actress who doesn’t want to stoop to the level of her inexperienced costars. Going to her first wrestling match provides an excellent showcase for Gilpin. I’d love to see her win, but it’s not an outwardly funny performance, and her show didn’t land nearly as well as some of her fellow nominees’. She’s still a possibility, but it’s not likely.

Leslie Jones as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Donald Glover)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Jones. In her submitted episode, she gets to do the same thing she did last year: say whatever she wants without being interrupted too much. I think last year was a better showcase for her since she was confronting her having been hacked, and she doesn’t have nearly as much going for her this year. Her winning would be a real surprise.

Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Bill Hader)
Two-time defending champ McKinnon is back with her fifth consecutive nomination. She doesn’t get to play Hillary Clinton to the same effect in her submitted episode this time around, but that’s fair given she’s no longer in the spotlight. Portraying Jeff Sessions and Betsy DeVos is just as funny, if not better, and that may give her a leg up in this fine showcase to take home a third trophy.

Laurie Metcalf as Jackie Harris, Roseanne (No Country for Old Women)
Metcalf, who managed three separate acting nominations two years ago, is now on her eleventh nomination. She took home this award – for this role – three years in a row over two decades ago. Now, Metcalf has managed to earn Emmy affection when no one else from her show did. I probably would have selected the season premiere rather than this half-hour, which focuses more on Jackie’s mother, but if liberal voters want to reward one of the only things they liked about this now-cancelled show, Metcalf would be a great choice.

Megan Mullally as Karen Walker, Will and Grace (Rosario’s Quinceanera)
Mullally is back after seven consecutive nominations for her show during its original run. She won on her first and last try, in 2000 and 2006, respectively. She’s the only series regular from her returning show to earn a nomination this year. Her submitted episode shows her connecting back to an unseen former character rather than highlighting her Trump allegiance that might have played better as comedy with voters. She’s won before and could again, but the lackluster reception for her show indicates that she’s far from a sure thing.

Who should win (based on entire season): Gilpin, Metcalf, or Borstein
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Gilpin or Beetz
Who will win: A slew of previous winners could repeat, be it McKinnon, Metcalf, or Mullally. Instead, I’ll go with Borstein, who will benefit from overall enthusiasm from her show, though arguably Beetz or Gilpin could win by the same logic.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Louie Anderson as Christine Baskets, Baskets (Thanksgiving)
This is Anderson’s third consecutive nomination. He won two years ago for this role. Last year, he was joined by costar Zach Galifianakis, but now he’s on his own. His submitted episode gives Christine a fabulous showcase as she prepares for a lonely Thanksgiving only to be joined by many unexpected guests, who she hosts fantastically. It’s a great episode, one that could easily sway voters if they’re not sure who to select.

Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump, Saturday Night Live (Host: Donald Glover)
Last year’s winner in this category is back with his fourteenth career acting nomination, He won twice for “30 Rock” back in 2008 and 2009. Baldwin is immensely popular at the moment for his portrayal of Donald Trump on the variety sketch series, and he definitely hits it out of the park in his conversation with the real-life Stormy Daniels in the cold open of his submitted episode. That’s pretty much all he does though, so I’m not sure if he’ll be able to pull off a repeat win. It’s definitely possible – don’t rule him out.

Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Kimmy and the Beest)
This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Burgess, who now represents his show’s only nomination besides Best Comedy Series. I remember writing when I saw this episode that this would make a lot of sense as Burgess’ submission since it gives him so much to do, but those who don’t watch regularly might have trouble understanding his very peculiar character. If he didn’t win for his caviar, pinot noir song, I don’t see how he could win now, but maybe he will, or maybe he’ll finally triumph when the remaining episodes of this show air next season.

Bryan Tyree Henry as Alfred Miles, Atlanta (Woods)
Henry earned a guest acting bid for “This Is Us” last year while missing out in this category. With his show’s nomination count more than doubled in year two, Henry is up for his portrayal of rapper Paper Boi, who in his submitted episode gets robbed and then wanders around through the woods experiencing more misery for the entirety of the half-hour. It’s definitely not a comedic performance, but if his show sweeps, which it could, he might just go along with the ride.

Tony Shalhoub as Abe Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Thank You and Good Night)
Shalhoub won three out of his eight consecutive bids for starring as an obsessive-compulsive detective on “Monk,” and he’s fresh off a Tony win for “The Band’s Visit.” Here, he plays a similarly buttoned-up individual, desperate to preserve the peaceful ways of his tranquil 1950s life. In the season finale, he can’t stand that developments in other people’s lives might affect his own. He’s entertaining and very funny, and I think that he’s experiencing a surge of popularity for his Broadway turn that, coupled with enthusiasm for this show, will likely propel him to a win.

Kenan Thompson as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: John Mulaney)
Everyone I’ve mentioned Thompson’s nomination to has responded with a certain respect for the fifteen seasons he’s put into this show as its longest-running cast member. He contended for music and lyrics for SNL last year and won that same award this year. He has a fun spotlight as a singing lobster in the standout sketch from his submitted episode, but honestly the reason he would win is the same reason he got nominated: a recognition of his commitment to the show. His material isn’t as funny as Baldwin’s, and I don’t think he’ll be able to take down any of the other nominees in this category.

Henry Winkler as Gene Cousineau, Barry (Chapter Four: Commit…to You?)
Winkler has five previous acting nominations, the first of which came in 1976, for “Happy Days,” and the most recent two, guest bids in drama and comedy in the same year, were in 2000. Now, he’s back for a regular TV role as the absurd acting coach Gene Cousineau. In his submitted episode, Cousineau gets to dissect Barry and (nearly) seduce the main detective working on the case. He’s a great actor who’s been working for decades, and giving him a win would be a perfect way to reward the much-liked HBO show.

Who should win (based on entire season): Shalhoub or Winkler
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Shalhoub, Winkler, or Anderson
Who will win: I’m going with Shalhoub over Winkler, though it could easily be him or almost any of the others.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alexis Bledel as Emily, The Handmaid’s Tale (Unwomen)
Bledel won for this role in the Best Guest Actress category last year, and now swaps places with Samira Wiley for the show’s second season. With more screentime and an expanded role this year, Bledel was equally impressive, and her submission is just as strong as it was in season one. Tracking how she went from an out college professor to inmate in a totalitarian work camp is incredible, and Bledel will surely get votes for her performance. She’ll just have to contend against her costars in this category.

Millie Bobby Brown as Eleven, Stranger Things (Chapter Three: The Pollywog)
This is the second consecutive nomination for the fourteen-year-old breakout star of HBO’s supernatural hit, which wasn’t quite as popular in its second season with Emmy voters, dropping from nineteen bids to twelve. Her submission gives Eleven a great opportunity to see what life is like without her in it, showcasing Brown’s strengths as an actress. If she was going to win, though, it would have been last year when her show was red-hot.

Ann Dowd as Aunt Lydia, The Handmaid’s Tale (June)
Dowd was doubly nominated last year, up for her guest role on “The Leftovers” and taking home the trophy for this part. Dowd is back with a powerful submission, the season premiere in which she gets to exact punishment on the handmaids for their rebellious actions. I think that one of her two nominated costars deserves the win this year, but historically Emmy voters have gotten attached to one cast member and given them trophy after trophy. She surprised last year, and don’t count her out this year.

Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Dragon and the Wolf)
This is Headey’s fourth consecutive nomination, making a return to the category after her show sat last season out. It’s the first time since her first bid that she’s the lone contender from her show in this category, with her two onscreen brothers also nominated. While the two of them have softened over time, Cersei hasn’t at all, and her submission of the season finale is a strong one, showing her at her most unforgiving. That said, she didn’t win for the season five finale that seemed like a shoo-in, and so I’d be surprised if she won now without that same buzz.

Vanessa Kirby as Princess Margaret, The Crown (Beryl)
Kirby wasn’t a sure thing to earn her first Emmy nomination, but it’s easy to understand why Emmy voters were impressed by her very memorable – and angry – portrayal of the sister of the queen who isn’t at all happy with the rules she has to follow. Her episode really is a knockout, as she gets close to someone and lets go in a way she hasn’t before. I don’t know that she has enough momentum to pull off a win, but it would be a deserved upset that could happen.

Thandie Newton as Maeve Millay, Westworld (Akane No Mai)
I was sure that Newton was going to win last year and then she didn’t, so I’m not eager to predict her again. That said, her episode is one that makes a case for Maeve as the most powerful character on this show, and Newton is terrific in it, finding her voice and realizing just how much of a threat she truly is to those who oppose her. It’s a crowded category, and the only thing she has going against her is that her show isn’t as beloved as that of her costars.

Yvonne Strahovski as Serena Joy Waterford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Women’s Work)
It’s great to see Strahovski here, joining last year’s winners Bledel and Dowd. The onetime “Chuck” star has created a very hateable character in Serena, who treats the title handmaid cruelly because of the way she perceives the world. Seeing what Serena does when she briefly gets power is incredible, and though I might have chosen the next episode that takes her on a trip to Canada, this is a fantastic submission that would have me voting for Strahovski and I imagine will have many voters picking her as well.

Who should win (based on entire season): Strahovski, Bledel, Newton, or Brown
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Strahovski or Bledel
Who will win: This is a very competitive category. I’m worried it will be Dowd again but for now I’ll pick Strahovski over Bledel, though I suppose someone from another show could win too.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau as Jaime Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Spoils of War)
It took him seven seasons, but Coster-Waldau finally earned his first Emmy nomination, joining his onscreen brother after Kit Harington got promoted (unsuccessfully) to the lead category. It’s been hard for a few seasons to peg Jaime as a good guy or a bad guy, and this episode epitomizes that as he nearly strikes a fatal blow to a main character. I’m not sure this is the grandest showcase he could have gotten, and not enough to upset his television sibling. Maybe next year for the final season of the show, but he’s not hot enough right now.

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (The Dragon and the Wolf)
This is Dinklage’s seventh straight nomination, returning after his show sat out last season and now joined by his onscreen brother in this category. He’s won twice, for the show’s first season and its fifth, making him a solid bet to repeat again given how well-liked he is. He submitted the season finale, in which he has some good moments with his sister wanting to kill him. It’s reasonable to expect that he could prevail again, even if this isn’t his showiest submission.

Joseph Fiennes as Commander Fred Waterford, The Handmaid’s Tale (First Blood)
Fiennes joins his female costars with his first nomination for his portrayal of the commander of the home in which the title handmaid resides. I personally would have chosen “Women’s Work,” which is costar Yvonne Strahovski’s submission, for him since it showcases him in a horrible way, but this hour offers an arguably more complex depiction of a man who may be a monster but also knows what to do to convince the women in his life that he cares about them. If his show sweeps like it did last year, he could easily be carried along with that wave.

David Harbour as Chief Jim Hopper, Stranger Things (Chapter Four: Will the Wise)
This is the second consecutive nomination for Harbour, who is one of two acting nominees from his show, which dropped from nineteen to twelve overall nominations this year. His submitted episode finds him interacting a lot with fellow nominee Millie Bobby Brown, showing his attempts to be a parent and a lawman at the same time. He seems to be popular, and even though I’d choose one of the kids on the show instead, he’s got a shot.

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (Species Jump)
This is Patinkin’s fourth nomination for this role and his second in a row. He won an Emmy back in 1995 for “Chicago Hope.” He’s been a dependable player on a show that’s been anything but in the past few years, and now he represents just one of three overall bids for his show. In his submitted episode, he stays calm and cool as he deals with many moving pieces around him. He’s hardly a hot candidate, but he’s a respectable choice who could easily take the win in a year without a definitive frontrunner.

Matt Smith as Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, The Crown (Mystery Man)
Smith earned his first Emmy nomination for portraying the trouble-making, selfish royal spouse who in the second season gets to live his own life away from the crown with frequent reminders that he isn’t free to do as he pleases. Getting called out by his wife on his behavior made for a stellar scene, one that Claire Foy owns but Smith performs strongly in as well. His costar John Lithgow won this award last year, but I think his performance is far showier and more memorable than Smith’s.

Who should win (based on entire season): Dinklage or Fiennes
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Dinklage, Fiennes or Smith
Who will win: I’m really not sure. My gut says that Dinklage takes it again, though it might be Fiennes or Patinkin also.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Pamela Adlon as Sam Fox, Better Things (Eulogy)
This is Adlon’s second consecutive nomination for this role. She was previously nominated for guest-starring on “Louie” in 2015 and won for her voice-over performance on “King of the Hill” in 2002. As with last year, she’s the lone nominee from her show. Her submitted episode finds her contemplating the banality of her work and the meaning of her life, and it’s a great showcase that, in another year, might make her a legitimate contender. I just don’t think her show is high-profile enough for her to score a win.

Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Thank You and Good Night)
Brosnahan was nominated for guest-starring on “House of Cards” three years ago. She won both the Golden Globe and the BFCA Award earlier this year for her portrayal of a 1950s housewife trying to make it as a stand-up comedian. Her submission of the season finale is an interesting choice since it’s not the opening hour that truly shows her potential, but I think it’s a smart choice and she shouldn’t have too much trouble taking home this award with its six-time consecutive champ out of the running.

Allison Janney as Bonnie Plunkett, Mom (Phone Confetti and a Wee Dingle)
Recently minted Oscar winner Janney is on her fourteenth Emmy nomination. She has four wins for “The West Wing,” one for “Masters of Sex,” and two for this role in the supporting category. This is her second consecutive bid in this race. I’d actually argue that this is Janney’s best submission in a few years, giving her a chance to spew off some comedy and build a good relationship in the process after being arrested. She’s an easy default vote for anyone who’s not into the other choices, but I don’t think she’ll win this year.

Issa Rae as Issa Dee, Insecure (Hella Great)
I couldn’t be more excited about the inclusion of Rae, a first-time Emmy nominee, here after her omission in season one. I wrote in my review of the season two premiere, her selected episode, that she had an amazing showcase in the opening scene, and this is a superb choice of an installment to show to voters. Unfortunately, I think that her nomination is her win this year, though you never know.

Tracee Ellis Ross as Rainbow Johnson, Black-ish (Elder. Scam.)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Ross, whose costar Anthony Anderson and her show are also nominated. Ross’ episode last year was pretty terrific, and in this year’s she doesn’t play nearly a prominent a role, shining in one scene but barely appearing in the rest of the episode in a substantial way. I’d be shocked if she won, though she did pull off a surprise victory at the Golden Globes in 2017, so she obviously has some supporters.

Lily Tomlin as Frankie, Grace and Frankie (The Home)
This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Tomlin, who has six previous wins, all not for acting. Last year, she was joined by costar Jane Fonda, but now she’s back on her own. Her submission of the season finale, in which Frankie and Grace realize where they’re going to have to end up, is a good one, but at this point I feel like Tomlin is just a default nominee, not a legitimate contender for the win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Brosnahan
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Brosnahan, Rae, or Adlon
Who will win: I think that Brosnahan is far ahead enough to win this without much competition.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Anthony Anderson as Andre Johnson, Black-ish (Advance to Go (Collect $200))
This is the fourth consecutive nomination for Anderson, whose show contends in the top category for the third time. He’s a likeable enough choice though his show hardly has any buzz anymore. Whereas last year he delivered an impassioned speech about the election and what it did to the country, in this episode he ditches his wife so that he can win Monopoly. It lacks the same gravitas, and the upset I thought might be possible last year seems all but guaranteed not to happen this year.

Ted Danson as Michael, The Good Place (Dance Dance Resolution)
I couldn’t be more excited about the inclusion of Danson for this fantastic show that inexplicably earned just one other nomination this year and none last year. Danson has fifteen previous nominations and two wins, both for “Cheers” in this category. It would be easier to be gung-ho for Danson if his show had any other support, and while the episode submission is superb, finding Michael doing constant reboots, I’m not sure it will translate to casual viewers. He could easily win if a vote-split happens between the top two contenders – I’d be ecstatic if it did.

Larry David as Himself, Curb Your Enthusiasm (Fatwa!)
This is David’s sixth nomination in this category. He was last nominated when the previous season aired, back in 2012. David does not play a likeable guy, and therefore him winning this award at any point felt unlikely. In the season finale, he goes head-to-head with Lin-Manuel Miranda as their show comes to fruition, providing some laughs but doubtful enough to give him the momentum for a win.

Donald Glover as Earn Marks, Atlanta (Teddy Perkins)
Glover won this award last year, and he’s up both for directing and writing his show and hosting SNL as well this year. His submitted episode finds him playing a character that’s completely unrecognizable, which should at least show voters that he’s capable of quite a range. It might also put some people off, and he’s certainly not the funniest actor in this category. Enthusiasm for his show is likely what will help him to a repeat win.

Bill Hader as Barry Berkman, Barry (Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast, and Keep Going)
Hader is also nominated for directing and writing his show and hosting SNL. He has three previous SNL nominations. As a hitman who decides to become an actor after one of his jobs leads him to an acting class, Hader is strangely likeable. He’s definitely having a great year, and even if his show, which mustered a very healthy thirteen nominations, can’t pull off a win in the top category, he might just be able to.

William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless (Sleepwalking)
This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Macy and his twelfth overall. Macy continues to be the only regular cast member to be recognized each year from one of the best ensembles on television. He submitted the season finale, a smart choice since Frank nearly scores with his latest scam before realizing that his family really doesn’t have his back. Macy has won the SAG Award three out of the past four years, so he’s a clear, easy backup choice if voters can’t decide on a favorite.

Who should win (based on entire season): Danson or Hader
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Danson, Hader or Macy
Who will win: This is primarily a competition between Hader and Glover, neither of who ended up winning their guest acting bids for SNL. It’s possible a vote-split could result in Danson or Macy winning too.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Claire Foy as Queen Elizabeth, The Crown (Dear Mrs. Kennedy)
Foy was Emmy-nominated last year, won the Golden Globe last year, and took home the SAG Award two years in a row. This is her last opportunity to compete for this role since a new, older actress will be taking over the part. I thought that she could win if she had submitted the finale, but instead she opted for an installment that I don’t think is quite as strong, where she prepares for the visit of President Kennedy and his wife, navigating what she’s supposed to do and whether to pair with the country leader or with his spouse. She’s undeniably great, and it’s just a question of whether she can eclipse hotter shows.

Tatiana Maslany as Many Characters, Orphan Black (To Right the Wrongs of Many)
I’m so happy to see Maslany here. She was nominated for her show’s third season in 2015 then miraculously won the next year for its fourth. She made an unexpected return after her show took a year off before airing its final season. I’ve remarked before that’s unfathomable to me that Maslany could be nominated for this show and anyone else could end up winning, but it’s only worked half the time for her. The submission of the series finale is a very smart choice, though I don’t think her show has any buzz, and it’s a much more competitive category than last time.

Elisabeth Moss as Offred/June, The Handmaid’s Tale (The Last Ceremony)
Moss was nominated six times previously for “Mad Men” and won for the first time last year for this role. She’s back for the second season of her show, in which she gives an equally tremendous performance as the rebellious handmaid. Her episode submission is excellent, showing her expressing misery at the latest horrifying thing she’s subjected to and encountering a completely unexpected bit of hope. I think she’ll win again, though it might be someone else’s turn.

Sandra Oh as Eve Polastri, Killing Eve (I Have a Thing About Bathrooms)
Oh, who has five previous nominations in the supporting category for “Grey’s Anatomy,” makes history as the first Asian actress to be nominated in this field. I do like the show, though it’s not quite as fantastic as I had hoped. More importantly, I had hoped that Oh’s costar Jodie Comer would have been nominated instead. Fortunately, Oh’s submitted hour is strong, showing her taking a bold stand against a frightening enemy in its opening moments. She could very well upset in a heated race with three other frontrunners – watch out for it to happen.

Keri Russell as Elizabeth Jennings, The Americans (The Summit)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Russell, and her show is back in the running for Best Drama Series for its final season. Her submission of the series finale is a decent choice since it shows her in survival mode, but I probably would have picked one of the earlier episodes of the season that show her on her own and very angry at her husband for his diverging viewpoints on their work. While many prognosticators are predicting Rhys to take home the Emmy this year, Russell doesn’t seem to have the same support. It will be an uphill battle for her to defeat Moss and Foy, but it’s certainly possible.

Evan Rachel Wood as Dolores Abernathy, Westworld (Reunion)
Wood was up for this role last year and previously nominated for an Emmy in 2011 for “Mildred Pierce.” In season two, Dolores is a far more aggressive and determined presence, and Wood responds accordingly with a formidable and often frightening performance. I think there may be some ill will towards the show for a less even second season, and it’s hard to separate Wood from that. I don’t think she can stand out enough from the pack in this category.

Who should win (based on entire season): Moss, Maslany, or Foy
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Moss
Who will win: The smartest choice would be to assume that Moss repeats, but I think that Foy may take it instead. Watch out also for upsets by Russell or Oh.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series