Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 13th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman, Sterling K. Brown, Steve Carell, Brian Cox, Billy Porter, Jeremy Strong

The competition: Two of last year’s nominees are eligible this time around: four-time nominee and past winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and another past winner, Billy Porter (Pose), who’s eligible for the third and final time. They’re all but guaranteed to return, and it’s possible that Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), who missed out last year for the first time after three consecutive bids, might too. Though he was eligible in the supporting category last year and missed the cut, Josh O’Connor (The Crown) is sure to show up this year. SAG nominee Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton) is likely too, as is a past Emmy winner and a Globe nominee this past year, Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason). He didn’t earn love from either the Globes or SAG, but Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country) is a popular actor on an acclaimed show. Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) was nominated in the supporting category for the second season of his show and earned a promotion for season four, and if the show is received positively overall, he’d be an easy choice. Christopher Meloni (Law and Order: Organized Crime) was nominated fifteen years ago for playing Detective Elliot Stabler, and starring in a new show in the same beloved role could bring him back to the race. If Justin Theroux (The Mosquito Coast) couldn’t get nominated for the incredible “The Leftovers,” I don’t know how he’ll make it in for a series that wasn’t as universally admired, though he is terrific. Disney Plus enthusiasm could catapult Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian), Anthony Mackie (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), or Sebastian Stan (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) to a nomination, but I doubt there’s room for all three of them. If their show does well in other races, Antony Starr (The Boys) and Karl Urban (The Boys) are also possible.

The predicted nominees: Brown, Majors, O’Connor, Page, Porter, Rhys

The predicted winner: I think this goes to O’Connor, but I’m not sure.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series