Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 16th. As always, chime in below in the comments with any thoughts of your own.

Last year’s nominees: Pamela Adlon, Rachel Brosnahan, Allison Janney, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin

The competition: Unlike the corresponding drama race, all six of last year’s nominees are eligible, as are three others from the year before and a few new contenders. Last year’s winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and six-time consecutive champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep), returning after a year off for the final season of her show, are guaranteed to make the cut and will go head-to-head for the win. Of the other five nominees from last year, Pamela Adlon (Better Things) seems surest to return as acclaim for her show only grows. Allison Janney (Mom), Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie), and Issa Rae (Insecure) are all lone honorees from their shows, which makes them easy to forget, while Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) may not find her show well-regarded forever. Two women last nominated two years ago, Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) and Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) were nominated, and they could just as easily end up on the list this year too. Both Debra Messing (Will and Grace) and Candice Bergen (Murphy Brown) won this award during the original incarnations of their shows, and they surely have fans who might want to honor them again, though Bergen’s chances may be lower given the short-lived nature of her series’ comeback. A number of acclaimed actresses who have had Emmy buzz in the past that has yet to lead to a nomination could make the cut this year, including Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin), Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend), Emmy Rossum (Shameless), Kristen Bell (The Good Place), and Alison Brie (GLOW). Even likelier than most of those is Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag), who gets a boost from being the creator of drama hit “Killing Eve.” New contenders include Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll), whose show seems to be very popular, Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) and Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me), who might have a tougher time getting in because they’re both in the same category, Regina Hall (Black Monday), who deserves this just as much as her more famous costar Don Cheadle, and Aidy Bryant (Shrill) and Maya Rudolph (Forever), two “Saturday Night Live” veterans who earned separate nominations last year that might also repeat this time. This is the most competitive category this year as far as I can tell, and there are so many possible lineups that could result.

The predicted nominees: Adlon, Applegate, Brosnahan, Louis-Dreyfus, Lyonne, Waller-Bridge

The predicted winner: A farewell to Louis-Dreyfus or a repeat for Brosnahan? I envision the former even if I’d rather see the latter.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series