Now that the 2012-2013 TV season is almost over, it’s hardly too early to start thinking about the Emmy nominations, which will be announced in July. Consider these preliminary thoughts rather than official predictions – look for those at the beginning of July. As always, chime in with your reactions and predictions in the comments, and don’t hesitate to let me know if I left any strong contenders off the list!
Last year’s eligible nominees:
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Voters still love his show, and Burrell is one of its most endearing parts. He has three consecutive nominations and won on his second try. Even if the show suffers a blacklash from voters, which is highly unlikely, Burrell should still be included because he’s one of its best working parts. His performance in the season finale helps too.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
I think most have just accepted the fact that Ferguson, who is, admittedly, often as funny as his other male costars, will be nominated along with them. Ferguson is three for three and should be back this year as well. Emmy voters don’t tend to get over their obsessions until something bigger comes along, and though the return of a certain once-cancelled show may be that this year, I don’t think it’s enough to knock this popular comedy and its stars out of the way.
Max Greenfield (New Girl)
Greenfield earned a nomination last year for his scene-stealing supporting performance as Schmidt, and picked up a corresponding Golden Globe nomination this past year too. Greenfield benefits from being on a different show than most of the other nominees in this category, and now his main competition, Jake Johnson, is officially going lead. Greenfield will be back unless voters suddenly find his character irritating, which is unlikely.
Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)
Hader is the first actor from his show to receive a nomination in this category recently, and history is on his side. He’s coming off his last year, which means voters will want to honor his entire body of work, and when costars Amy Poehler and Kristen Wiig have been nominated in the past, they’ve been recognized all the way through to their final seasons on the show. He’s a good bet to return.
Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)
O’Neill has now been nominated twice after being the only adult cast member snubbed for the show’s first season. While he hasn’t won like Burrell or Stonestreet, he is the family’s glue as its patriarch, and overdue respect for O’Neill is likely to keep him in the race even if voters lose confidence, which I don’t think they will, in their current favorite comedy.
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
This show’s most flamboyant player has been nominated three times and won this award twice, in 2012 and 2010. There’s no way he won’t be back since he’s the showiest cast member and has proven himself more than committed to the role of Cameron. He and Burrell are probably safe, and one of them may win again.
Past nominees:
Will Arnett (Arrested Development)
I’ve written in previous musings posts for other categories that I don’t know how Netflix shows will fare this year. That said, this once-cancelled show is sure to be a hit, and even if it doesn’t crack the top categories, some of the actors are sure to be nominated. Arnett wasn’t recognized until season three, when he was the only performer nominated from his show. Since then, however, Arnett has netted four guest acting nominations for “30 Rock,” making him a serious threat to reenter this race.
Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
After four consecutive nominations, this extremely popular actor was left off the list in 2011. He did win an Emmy in 2010 for guest-starring on “Glee,” which means that he’s not overdue for a win. Most crucially, however, Harris’ show isn’t yet off the air. Next year is when voters might remember him again and want to honor his departing series as a tribute to what will then be nine years on the air.
Jeffrey Tambor (Arrested Development)
As his show returns from once-cancelled days, Tambor is its most probable contender. He was the only performer to earn an acting nomination for the show’s first season, and then returned for season two before being replaced by Arnett for season three. Tambor has four previous nominations in this race for “The Larry Sanders Show,” so I suspect he’ll have no trouble sneaking back in to earn his seventh career nomination.
Other possibilities:
John Krasinski (The Office) and Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation)
For the past three years, I’ve compared Offerman to Krasinski: an incredible supporting player whose show has done fairly well on occasion with Emmy voters yet who seems never to be recognized for his accomplishments. After nine seasons of his show, could Krasinski finally make the cut? And after only five, can Offerman prevent himself from suffering the same fate? Doubtful on both counts, but it’s always possible.
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