Emmy Awards: Brief Reactions

I just finished watching the Emmys, and want to post a few reactions about the ceremony and the winners. Neil Patrick Harris was a fun and competent host, and his introduction of the past hosts was entertaining if a bit overlong. The opening segment was relatively funny, and his musical numbers throughout were enjoyable. Having specific performers present designated tributes to actors like James Gandolfini and Cory Monteith was a nice touch, and it’s good to see them spotlighted. It’s interesting to me that the Best Choreography nominees got to put together a dance number, which was admittedly fun, for the telecast when it’s been such an unsuccessful uphill battle for a similar category to be introduced at the Oscars. It’s weird not to have every nominated show represented in that number, but it was still fun.

As for the winners, I scored 11/23 for the categories I predicted. That’s better than 8/25 for two years ago and about on par with 10/25 last year. Though I missed every single acting winner except for Claire Danes, I did predict both series categories and all four comedy and drama directing and writing prizes correctly. I’m thrilled for two winners I was rooting for, Tony Hale and Bobby Cannavale, and excited about “Breaking Bad” winning for Best Drama Series, even if I would have voted for “Homeland.” It was also nice to see diverse winners such as Merritt Wever and Anna Gunn honored, and, the most surprising win of all, Jeff Daniels. That’s an enormous blow to Aaron Sorkin and his show, because it means that voters really like Daniels’ performance and just don’t like “The Newsroom” as a show.

That’s about all I have to say for the moment – it wasn’t a bad show, but it wasn’t all that memorable either. Thanks for following along this Emmy season, and stick around for pilot reviews galore here in the coming weeks and the start of Oscar season over at Movies With Abe!

Final Emmy Winner Predictions

The Emmy Awards air this Sunday night on CBS. So far, I’ve predicted 2/4 correctly, missing both Carrie Preston (The Good Wife) and Melissa Leo (Louie), and correctly guessing Dan Bucatinsky (Scandal) and Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory). I’m far from secure in many of my predictions, because I really don’t know what this year’s big show will be in the drama race. My gut says “Homeland” will reign again, while “Breaking Bad” nabs a few acting trophies and “House of Cards” fares fine. Then again, “Downton Abbey” or “Mad Men” could have a resurgence. And will this finally be the year that “Modern Family” doesn’t win? It just doesn’t seem to me that there’s a nominee poised to take it down. Either way, I’m excited for the show, and will post some brief reactions either immediately afterwards or the next morning. Enjoy the show, and leave your thoughts in the comments! For detailed predictions in all applicable categories, click on the hyperlinked category name.

No guts, no glory:
“Veep” for Best Comedy Series

DRAMA SERIES:
Breaking Bad

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Claire Danes (Homeland)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

DRAMA DIRECTING:
Chapter 1 (House of Cards)

DRAMA WRITING:
Q and A (Homeland)

COMEDY SERIES:
Modern Family

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Louis C.K. (Louie)

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Julie Bowen (Modern Family)

COMEDY DIRECTING:
Arrested (Modern Family)


COMEDY WRITING:
Last Lunch (30 Rock)

MINISERIES or MADE FOR TV MOVIE:
Behind the Candelabra

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTOR:
Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra)

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTRESS:
Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter)

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTOR:
James Cromwell (American Horror Story)

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story)

MOVIE/MINI DIRECTING:
Behind the Candelabra

MOVIE/MINI WRITING:
Behind the Candelabra

VARIETY SERIES:
The Daily Show

REALITY/COMPETITION PROGRAM:
The Amazing Race

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

THE BIG BANG THEORY
"The Closet Reconfiguration" / "The Bakersfield Expedition"
"The Tangible Affection Proof" / "The Egg Salad Equivalency"
"The Love Spell Potential" / "The Spoiler Alert Segmentation"

I don’t watch this show regularly, but I always look forward to watching the submitted episodes in advance of Emmy night. This year’s crop was very consistently funny, and I also enjoyed the three episodes chosen by the nominated actors. Tape one features a slightly dramatic look at Howard’s relationship with his father and an extremely humorous trip to Comic-Con. Tape two focuses on Valentine’s Day and Sheldon failing at understanding the nature of sexual harassment. Tape three shows the gang playing “Dungeons and Dragons” and a major shift in living situations among these friends. The only CBS sitcom in the past twenty years to win this award was “Everybody Loves Raymond,” and, great as this show is, I don’t see it winning this year or any year except perhaps its last.

GIRLS
"Bad Friend" / "It’s a Shame About Ray"
"One Man’s Trash" / "It’s Back"
"On All Fours" / "Together"

After performing better than expected last year, this show is back for its less impressive second year. I have mixed feelings about these submissions, and I’ll start by saying that there’s almost no chance that this show will win. The first tape is actually the best since it contains two truly compelling episodes from early in the season, featuring Hannah finding herself in the right for once and everything falling apart in the next episode. On tape two, “One Man’s Trash” is terrific, but I really didn’t like “It’s Back,” Which reintroduced Hannah’s OCD. Tape three I like least, since it features the final two episodes of the season, the first of which is disturbing but effective, while the second is interesting but not justified by what happened before it. This season was a bit messy, and I think these submissions echo that.

LOUIE
"Telling Jokes/Set Up" / "Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1"
"Late Show, Part 1" / "Late Show, Part 2"
"Late Show, Part 3" / "New Year’s Eve"

This show finally broke into the top category for its third season, and Louis C.K. is flush with nominations once again. This is a show I don’t watch regularly and don’t particularly like, though I’ll admit it grew on me as I was watching it this season. Tape one comes early in the season and features two awkward but entertaining installments. Tapes two and three contain the final four episodes of the season, which are good but are severely dark and depressing at points. I know voters love C.K., and this show winning wouldn’t surprise me, but is this really what constitutes the Best Comedy Series on television? I’m not so sure, and I think this show won’t win as a result of its unusual tone.

MODERN FAMILY
"Fulgencio" / "Career Day"
"The Butler’s Escape" / "Arrested"
"Mistery Date'" / "Party Crasher"

This show has won three times in a row, and some viewers are just as sick of it as Emmy voters seem to love it. I liked about half of these episodes, while I was less enthusiastic about the other half, conveniently evenly split, one per tape. “Fulgencio” was decently funny, while “Career Day” wasn’t all that interesting. “The Butler’s Escape” was uninventive, while “Arrested” was a lot of fun. “Mistery Date,” Ty Burrell’s submitted episode, is great, while Manny’s surprise party in “Party Crasher” was disappointing. The issue is that, aside from the final season of “30 Rock,” there isn’t really another show that might be able to unseat it, so I still consider it the frontrunner.

30 ROCK
"Stride of Pride" / "A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World"
"Mazel Tov, Dummies!" / "My Whole Life is Thunder"
"Hogcock!" / "Last Lunch"

Though I often forget it, I do like this show, but I find some of its episodes wholly ridiculous. I’m really not a fan of tape two, which features an unfunny wacky wedding and the degradation of women. Tape one is half good thanks to Jack’s enlistment of typical partners and less exciting because of the silly Willy Wonka theme. Tape three, on the other hand, contains the two-part season finale, which, to its credit, was pretty funny. I can’t comprehend why the best episode of the season, “Governor Dunston,” wasn’t submitted. This show won three times in a row before “Modern Family” knocked it from its perch three times in a row, and if voters want to recognize it again, which I imagine they might, this is their last chance to do it.

VEEP
"Midterms" / "First Response"
"Hostages" / "Helsinki"
"Running" / "D.C."

I’m thrilled that this comedy, which currently ranks as my second-favorite on TV, got nominated again, along with two more cast members in addition to Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who won the lead actress trophy last year. Tape one contains the season premiere and the episode in which Selina does an interview. Tape two includes Sue testifying and Selina getting hit on by the Finnish prime minister’s husband. Tape three is the final two episodes of the season, which were great, particularly the awesome finale. If this show won, I would be overjoyed? It’s a spoiler for sure, but its chances of an upset are low.

What should win (based on entire season): “Veep”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Veep” or “The Big Bang Theory”
What will win: Short of “30 Rock” getting a farewell nod, it will be Modern Family for the fourth time.

Next up: That’s a wrap!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BREAKING BAD
"Hazard Pay" / "Fifty-One"
"Dead Freight" / "Buyout"
"Say My Name" / "Gliding Over All"

I predicted this show to win back in season two, and then again last year. I feel like each year it’s getting hotter, and with the penultimate episode of the series airing during the Emmy telecast, it feels like this is really when it will catch fire. That said, there’s always next year, so who knows? Out of eight episodes, this tape skips the first two and then pairs each successive set of episodes. Season five was a season that got better as it went along, so tape one and tape two are both extremely competent, but tape three is a complete knockout. They’re all great though, so I really wouldn’t be surprised if this show finally broke through and won this race this year.

DOWNTON ABBEY
"Episode 1"
"Episode 4 and 5"
"Episode 6"

After watching all of the first two seasons over Labor Day last year just a few weeks before the Emmys, I watched season three as it aired in the U.S. each week. Unlike other shows, its extra-long installments make for tapes all on their own. The wedding spectacular in episode one speaks for itself. Tape two covers the Sybil plotline for season three, which is quite effective. Tape three, interestingly enough, is not the special, but instead the second-to-last-mega-installment that proves to be just as entertaining and less ultimately devastating. No one would argue with this show winning, but the fact that it couldn’t pull it off at the height of its popularity suggests it won’t be able to do so this year either.

GAME OF THRONES
“And Now His Watch is Ended” / “Kissed by Fire”
“The Bear and the Maiden Fair” / “Second Sons"
"The Rains of Castamere" / “Mhysa”

This is the third nomination for this show, which managed to hold onto its spot and perform better than ever despite being snubbed by Golden Globe and SAG voters in favor of “Boardwalk Empire.” Tape one contains dragon fire and forced betrothals. Tape two features some excellent unexpected conversations and a great wedding plotline. Tape three is made up of the last two episodes of the season, the first of which is nominated for writing and the second of which is fine but hardly as fulfilling. This show was well-represented with nominations this year, but I don’t see it winning this race.

HOMELAND
"The Smile" / "Beirut is Back"
"New Car Smell" / "Q and A"
"In Memoriam" and "The Choice"

I was so excited that this show actually won last year for a stellar first season. Its second season was, impossibly, just as good as season one, and given even greater enthusiasm than last year, this show could pull off a repeat win in a magnificently crowded category. Though they once again omit two of the season’s best episodes – “The Clearing” and “I’ll Fly Away” – these tapes are very well put-together. Tape one features the season premiere, which is less exciting than episode two, which really gets the action going. Tape two is excellent and features a powerful duo of episodes that change everything. Tape three is the final two episodes of the season, which change things in a whole new way again. These are superb submissions, and I could definitely see this show winning again.

HOUSE OF CARDS
“Chapter 1” / “Chapter 2”
"Chapter 7” / “Chapter 8”
"Chapter 10” / “Chapter 11”

This show makes history as the first Netflix original series to crack this category, and it’s interesting to see the episodes selected because many viewers likely watched them all in quick succession. I, for one, screened the episodes included on tape one in April and then didn’t return to the show again until August. They were good, interesting hours, but not enough to compel me to get into the show. Episodes four and five, which were not submitted, really made the case for me. Tape two sees Frank getting more personal, heading back to his hometown in the second of the two episodes. Tape three is inarguably the strongest, featuring Frank having to make tough decisions regarding his wife and his congressman puppet Peter. If this show won, it would be groundbreaking, but it would also deserve it since it’s exactly the fare Emmy voters love. I’m not sure it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

MAD MEN
"The Flood" / "For Immediate Release"
"The Better Half" / "Favors"
"The Quality of Mercy" / "In Care Of"

This show lost this award for the first time last year after four consecutive victories, and with a field this competitive, it will be a long climb back to the top. The tapes skip over the great Hawaii opener right to the equally compelling fifth episode, which focuses on Martin Luther King’s assassination and its effects. That installment is paired on tape one with a great game-changing episode featuring Don and Ted. Tape two contains Don and Betty’s memorable trip to Bobby’s camp and Sally interacting with the grownups in a major way. Tape three, which includes the final two episodes of the season, is full of big developments that transform many things in an irreversible way. This show is still terrific, but I think Emmy voters are over it.

What should win (based on entire season): “Homeland,” but I like them all!
What should win (based on individual episodes): A tough call again. “Homeland,” “Mad Men,” or “Breaking Bad.”
What will win: It’s a three-way-race: “Breaking Bad” vs. defending champ “Homeland” and newcomer “House of Cards.” My vote: Breaking Bad.

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik, Episodes (Episode 9)
Pamela Adlon and Louis C.K., Louie (Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1)
Greg Daniels, The Office (Finale)
Jack Burditt and Robert Carlock, 30 Rock (Hogcock!)
Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield, 30 Rock (Last Lunch)

This category is infinitely less interesting than it was last year. The nominees are actually still pretty decent, representing some quality half-hours of television. Inexplicably, the two-part series finale of “30 Rock” contends as two separate installments here despite being grouped together everywhere else. All of these nominees are returning contenders for their same shows, with the exception of Adlon and Wigfield. Daniels, Fey, and, most recently, C.K., have all won this award for their shows. Fey and Daniels are nominated for the series finales of their shows, which has not historically been a helpful thing but could well be this year for the sake of nostalgia.

What should win: “The Office”
What will win: It could be “Louie” again, but I’ll bet on the series finale of 30 Rock edging out the series finale of “The Office.”

Next up: Best Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Lena Dunham, Girls (On All Fours)
Paris Barclay, Glee (Diva)
Louis C.K., Louie (New Year’s Eve)
Gail Mancuso, Modern Family (Arrested)
Beth McCarthy-Miller, 30 Rock (Hogcock/Last Lunch)

Each of these directors has been nominated exactly once before, for directing an episode of their current series, with the exception of McCarthy-Miller, who has two nominations to her name for her show. None has ever won, so the victor this year will be a first-time winner. “Modern Family” has won this award the past two years, which makes its victory likely, though “30 Rock,” which has never won before, could be recognized for its two-part series finale. “Glee” is well past its prime, while the episode of “Girls,” while decent, is much too dark for this category. That leaves “Louie,” which won for writing last year and may well win for acting this year, as the third challenger and potential upset. I’m not overly invested in this category as compared with most of the others.

What should win: Anything but “Glee”
What will win: It could be “30 Rock” or “Louie,” but why bet against Modern Family?

Next up: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

George Mastras, Breaking Bad (Dead Freight)
Thomas Schnauz, Breaking Bad (Say My Name)
Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (Episode 4)
David Benioff, D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones (The Rains of Castamere)
Henry Bromell, Homeland (Q and A)

Most of these nominees are new this year, with the exception of Fellowes, who was nominated last year, and Benioff and Weiss, who were recognized for a season one episode of their show two years ago. “Mad Men” used to be king of this category, but, despite receiving at least two nominations in this race every year since it started, it finds itself omitted completely this year. In its place, another AMC show has been recognized. Both episodes are great, and the same is true of the game-changing installments of “Game of Thrones” and “Homeland.” Rounding out the category is “Downton Abbey,” which always chooses wisely and has submitted a compelling installment as well.

What should win: “Say My Name”
What will win: I’d go out on a limb and predict “Game of Thrones,” but I think I’ll stick with Homeland repeating.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Timothy Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire (Margate Sands)
Michelle MacLaren, Breaking Bad (Gliding Over All)
Jeremy Webb, Downton Abbey (Episode 7)
Lesli Linka Glatter, Homeland (Q and A)
David Fincher, House of Cards (Chapter 1)

This category tends to favor pilots and standout season finales. For the second year in a row, both of the season finales of “Boardwalk Empire” and “Breaking Bad” are recognized. Van Patten won this award last year for the first time for his same show, which is longer nominated in most major categories this year but has won this award for the past two years. MacLaren was last nominated three years ago for an installment of her show. “Downton Abbey” returns with a nomination this year with a first-time nominee, Webb, honored. Glatter is a previous nominee for a 2009 episode of “Mad Men,” and “Homeland” is also honored with one nomination for the second year in a row. Joining the list two-time Oscar nominee Fincher for the Netflix freshman series.

What should win: Of this bunch, probably “Gliding Over All.”
What will win: It’s possible that “Boardwalk Empire” will take it again, but I think this will go to House of Cards.

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Mayim Bialik as Amy Fowler, The Big Bang Theory (The Fish Guts Displacement)
Bialik is back with her second consecutive nomination for playing Sheldon’s girlfriend Amy on the hit CBS sitcom. In her submitted episode, Amy gets sick and is surprised to discover how good a job Sheldon does of taking care of her when prompted. It’s a fun part and a fun episode, and a win for someone besides star Jim Parsons might be a welcome thing for her show.

Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy, Modern Family (My Hero)
Bowen has won this award twice in a row, with an additional nomination the year before that. In her submitted episode, Claire is chosen by her son as his hero, prompting considerable shock from her husband. Bowen is the competent straight woman on her show, and she doesn’t have to try hard to win this award. With a wide field, I still think she’s the frontrunner to win again.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (First Response)
I’m very happy to see Chlumsky recognized for a performance I didn’t expect Emmy voters to notice. Chlumsky is reliable as Selina’s number one female advisor, who is just as uncensored as her boss and just as witty. In her submitted episode, Amy gets to yell at a producer during an interview and stand her ground in defense of her boss. I’d love to see her win, but I don’t think she’ll be singled out from this showier bunch.

Jane Krakowski as Jenna Moroney, 30 Rock (Hogcock/Last Lunch)
This is Krakowski’s fourth nomination for this show. She was snubbed last year but nominated three times in a row before that. Krakowski has never won an Emmy, and her winning would be a great way to say goodbye to the show, especially since nominated costars Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey have already won. Her submitted episode, the two-part series finale, includes a great snippet of “The Rural Juror” and wouldn’t leave anyone doubting that Krakowski has created a truly unique and unforgettable character.

Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester, Glee (Diva)
I’m perplexed by Lynch’s inclusion here because I thought voters had all but forgotten her show. Lynch won three years ago for the freshman season of her show and was nominated the year after as well. In her submitted installment, Sue gets to sing in full costume as part of a feud with Blaine. She’s fun in it, but it’s hardly the caliber of performance or writing that she used to have. There’s no reason she couldn’t win again, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett, Modern Family (Yard Sale)
Vergara is on her fourth nomination, and she’s lost twice in a row to her costar Julie Bowen. I wrote last year that voters might be tired of her character, but in her submitted episode this year, she reveals a hidden talent for ventriloquism. Even if I didn’t buy it, she was doing something different for once, and it might well be the thing that finally gets her some reward beyond just a nomination.

Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow, Nurse Jackie (Teachable Moments)
Wever is back with a second consecutive nomination for the fifth season of her show for her portrayal of talkative nurse Zoey, who often tries to spread her passion and energy to those around her despite their best attempts to ignore her. In her submitted episode, Zoey encourages Dr. Prentiss to be friendlier and tells people he likes getting hugs, which makes for a great showcase of her zeal. If she were a bigger name in a less crowded category, she might have a shot at winning.

Who should win (based on entire season): Chlumsky or Bowen
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Bialik, Chlumsky, or Wever
Who will win: I’m not sure who might be the one to beat Bowen, but if she did lose, I’d bet on either Krakowski or Vergara.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (Mistery Date)
Burrell won this award two years ago, and this marks his fourth consecutive nomination. Now that costar Eric Stonestreet, who beat him last year and three years ago, isn’t in the race, Burrell stands a great chance of repeating this win. That’s infinitely truer due to his excellent episode submission, which pairs him with Matthew Broderick for a punny case of mistaken identity, where Phil finds himself the unintentional seducer of his new male friend. It’s a great entry made for an Emmy win.

Adam Driver as Adam, Girls (It’s Back)
This is Driver’s first time being nominated, and he’s actually the first member of his cast besides star Lena Dunham to be recognized. I had assumed, as I think most had, that Driver would submit the disturbing installment “On All Fours” in which he treats his new girlfriend poorly because he thinks she’ll like it. But selecting the previous installment in which he charmingly romances her is actually smarter. I don’t think his show is popular enough to score a win for him if it couldn’t win anything last year, but it’s a nice showcase.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (The Wow Factor)
I think by now most had expected that Ferguson would be nominated for a fourth consecutive time, though many doubted his chances before that. Now, he’s actually present while costar and onscreen partner Eric Stonestreet, who has won twice, got snubbed. It would be great to see him win, and he is a lot of fun in his submitted episode, in which he gets inspired to take down a child bully and gets carried away. If voters want to spread the wealth among his cast, they might recognize him, but I doubt they will.

Bill Hader as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Seth MacFarlane)
This is Hader’s second consecutive nomination. He’s now the only regular player nominated from the show, since former costar Kristen Wiig is recognized as a host in the guest race this year. Wiig couldn’t win for her final season of the show last year, and so I doubt that Hader could pull off that feat either. He does just fine in the season premiere, but I don’t think the quality of his characters is consistent enough for voters to endorse him with the win.

.Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (Running)
This is the first Emmy nomination for Hale, who was a vital part of the “Arrested Development” ensemble. Passed over last year in favor of his new show’s star, Hale is recognized this year for his hilarious portrayal of the Vice-President’s assistant. In his submitted episode, he is the recipient of unusual kindness from his boss after she walks through a glass door, giving him a wonderful opportunity to revel in being acknowledged. I’d love to see him win, and I think it could happen too.

Ed O’Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family (Bringing Up Baby)
O’Neill made the cut after costar Eric Stonestreet got omitted, marking his third consecutive nomination for playing the family patriarch on ABC’s comedy. In the fourth season premiere, Jay turns sixty-five and gets to do some physical comedy in addition to the requisite jokes about his age. It would be easy to justify a long-overdue Emmy for O’Neill’s body of work, but I don’t see it happening this far into his show’s run.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hale
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Burrell or Hale
Who will win: I’d love to see it be Hale, but I think the still-deserving Burrell will take it.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Morena Baccarin as Jessica Brody, Homeland (State of Independence)
Baccarin was a possibility to be nominated last year for her work as the long-suffering wife of a returning Marine who was held as a prisoner of year and presumed dead for eight years. In her submitted episode, she decides not to take her fate lying down anymore, saving face at a public event when her husband doesn’t show up and then telling him she wants a divorce. This is a competitive field, but Baccarin will surely garner votes.

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife (The Seven Day Rule)
For the first time in her show’s four-year history, Baranski is the only nominee in this category from her show. With costars Archie Panjabi and Julianna Margulies snubbed, Baranski is her show’s only series regular representative. Though she’s now earned eleven Emmy nominations, she’s unlikely to win since her show is well past its Emmy prime. Her submitted episode gives her a good scene or two, like when she talks to Alicia woman-to-woman about her promotion offer, but it’s hardly a substantial enough entry.

Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones (And Now His Watch is Ended)
Clarke is the first member of her cast aside from Peter Dinklage ever to be nominated for an Emmy. The young actress commanded the small screen with her dragons as a princess vying for the true throne. Unleashing dragon fire after being talked down to by a rude enemy is a pretty magnificent way to get a point across, and that makes this a grand spotlight for Clarke, who, while good, won’t be able to eclipse her more experienced elders in this race.

Anna Gunn as Skyler White, Breaking Bad (Fifty-One)
As her show progressed and got even darker, Gunn became one of its most intriguing players. This is her second consecutive nomination. Her submitted episode gives her one of her best opportunities to display her reaction to the reality of what her husband is doing, walking into a pool with all of her clothes on in her most memorable moment. Her show is at the height of its popularity right now, and it’s possible that she could win if she managed to outpace Smith.

Christina Hendricks as Joan Holloway, Mad Men (A Tale of Two Cities)
This is the fourth nomination for Hendricks. Last year seemed like the best chance for Hendricks to become the first member of her cast ever to take home an Emmy, but, unfortunately, she couldn’t beat Maggie Smith. Her submitted episode isn’t the knockout that it was last year, but it does still give her the opportunity to circumvent her superiors and to show off why she’s so terrific in this role. I’m not sure how much it will matter, but no would argue with her taking home this prize if it happened.

Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
Smith won last year with little effort for her undeniably witty portrayal of an eternally sarcastic countess always more than willing to share her opinions with those around her. For the second year in a row, she submitted the season premiere, which this year allowed her to go toe-to-toe with Shirley MacLaine’s matriarch. The fact that MacLaine didn’t get nominated should only highlight Smith more, and I think that she would have won this race without even appearing for more than a moment in an episode.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hendricks or Baccarin
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Hendricks, Gunn, or Baccarin
Who will win: It seems a foregone conclusion that Smith will take it, though I suppose Gunn could too.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut, Breaking Bad (Say My Name)
Emmy voters seem intent on nominating their beloved two-time winner Aaron Paul and another member of his show’s cast in this category, and after Giancarlo Esposito last year, Banks, who was nominated in this category twenty-four years ago for “Wiseguy,” is an excellent choice for his no-nonsense performance as veteran security man Mike, who is forced to face reality and figure out a way to provide for his beloved granddaughter in one of the season’s most spectacular episodes. I doubt he can beat Paul, but it’s always possible.

Bobby Cannavale as Gyp Rosetti, Boardwalk Empire (Sunday Best)
Cannavale, also a nominee this and last year for his guest acting work on “Nurse Jackie,” stormed onto the scene of “Boardwalk Empire,” which had its best season yet but inexplicably got omitted from most of the major categories in which it was previously nominated, and chewed scenery all season long. Cannavale is indisputably terrific, if a bit over-the-top. His selected episode isn’t actually his best, though it does feature a formidably violent interaction between Gyp and a priest. This is a crowded race, and I don’t know if this submission can get Cannavale to the win.

Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey (Episode 6)
I was surprised that, after the enthusiasm that netted the PBS drama so many acting nominations last year died down, Carter still managed to get recognized for a performance that is definitely good but often doesn’t get as much of a spotlight as his costars. A comic submission last year was a smart idea, and he repeats that again this year by exempting himself from a social event so that his underlings can actually enjoy themselves. His submission aside, he is sure to be overlooked in favor of other men in this category.

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (Second Sons)
For the first time, Dinklage isn’t the only actor nominated from his show. He is its sole representative in this race, and after winning two years ago, he continues to be one of its best and most reliable players. His episode this year is brilliant because it lets him shine both a sober and a drunk man, forced to marry someone he does not wish to but intent on not consummating the marriage until his new wife actually wants to. If only his show were still as red-hot as another series with two nominees in this race, he might have a good shot.

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (The Choice)
Patinkin was snubbed last year for the freshman season of Showtime’s amazingly popular thriller, and now he’s up for his stellar work in its second season as the mentor of the out-of-control CIA Agent Carrie Mathison. Patinkin, an Emmy winner in 1995 for “Chicago Hope,” is terrific without trying very hard, and his role is a very fitting one. His choice of the season finale is excellent, because it lets him grandstand at the start and then act tremendously humble at its end. He’s a threat to win if his show is as popular as it was last year.

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (Buyout)
Emmy voters love Paul. He won this award for the third and fourth seasons of his show despite fierce competition, and now he’s back for the penultimate year of his series, which concludes for good just a few weeks after Emmy night. That buzz is very likely to propel Paul to another win, though I’m not convinced that he’s entirely invincible. Mourning the murder of an innocent bystander gives him the opportunity to be just as multi-faceted as Emmy voters seem to love, and therefore betting against him doesn’t seem too wise.

Who should win (based on entire season): Cannavale, Patinkin, or Banks
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Banks, Dinklage, of Patinkin
Who will win: It could be Banks or Patinkin, but I think that Paul will score his third victory.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Laura Dern as Amy Jellicoe, Enlightened (All I Ever Wanted)
Dern, who took home a Golden Globe for the first season of her show, was passed over for a nomination in a seven-wide field last year, and then inexplicably got nominated after her show was cancelled following its second season. I’m delighted because I love her show, and her role is so different from all the other women here. Dern has four previous nominations in four different categories, and has yet to win. In her submitted episode, Amy has to deal with two men in her life pulling her in opposite directions, which makes for a superb spotlight that could well help her win.

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath, Girls (Bad Friend)
The young Dunham had four individual Emmy nominations last year, and this year she’s down to three. Her show still fared quite well, but it’s clear that it’s not as popular as it was during season one. In her submitted episode, probably the strongest of Hannah’s plotlines all season, she gets to be the good guy for once and be mad at her friends for being dishonest and unfair to her. It’s about the best I could have presented for Dunham in season two, and maybe it will convince voters too.

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (The Luck of the Drawing)
This is Falco’s eleventh career Emmy nomination. She won three times for “The Sopranos” and once for the freshman season of this show. After a surprise resurgence that netted two other acting nominations for her show last year, both of which repeated this year, Falco is once again contending in this field for the fourth time. In her submitted episode, Falco struggles with an impossible custody battle and shows how her maternal instincts win out over anything else. It’s a fine selection, but this award has gone to a different person every year since 2000, and I don’t think Falco will be the one to break that streak.

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (Hogcock/Last Lunch)
No one notes Fey’s nomination statistics the way they do Lena Dunham’s and Louis C.K.’s, but it’s worth pointing out that Fey has earned at least three nominations per year since her show started, and that total is up to seven this year, including a bid for Best Original Music and Lyrics for a song performed in her submitted episode. Choosing the series finale is indisputably smart, especially because she’s so perfect in it. Her winning would be an excellent testament to the success of her show, and I could definitely see it happening.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (Running)
Louis-Dreyfus is now three for three, earning one Emmy apiece for “Seinfeld,” “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” and this show. She’s on nomination number fourteen, and the defending champion in this race. I would have said that she’s a lock to win if she had submitted the season finale in which she finally ends up in a position of true power and positivity, but the penultimate episode, in which she walks through a glass door, is a good submission too. She could easily win again, though voters may want to spread the wealth, since the last person to win this trophy two years in a row was Patricia Heaton thirteen years ago.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks and Recreation (Emergency Response/Leslie and Ben)
Inexplicably, Poehler is on her fourth consecutive nomination, but her show has just one other nomination, for sound mixing, this year. Emmy voters clearly do like Poehler, even if they don’t love her show for some reason. Her submitted episode is a fantastic two-parter that sees her thrive under pressure and then plan a rare spontaneous life cycle event. She should have won by now, but maybe this will finally be the year!

Who should win (based on entire season): Poehler or Louis-Dreyfus
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Poehler or Dunham
Who will win: It could well be Louis-Dreyfus again, but I’m going to hope for the best and say Poehler finally takes it.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock (A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World)
This is the last time that Baldwin will be nominated for his outrageous portrayal of executive Jack Donaghy. He’s won twice before, and this is his seventh consecutive nomination for this role. For the show’s final season, Baldwin chose the third-to-last hour in which he inexplicably appoints Kenneth to be the new president of the network and has to deal with the implications of his choice. It’s an over-the-top selection, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Baldwin took it home because voters are sad to see the show go.

Jason Bateman as Michael Bluth, Arrested Development (Flight of the Phoenix)
Bateman ended up being the lone nominee from the highly-anticipated fourth season of the previously defunct FOX show, which was revived by Netflix. Bateman was nominated for the show’s second season, and in this year’s season premiere, he commits fully to bringing viewers back to the world of the show in a humorous turn as a completely unaware father living with his son in his dorm room. Winning would be a great tribute to the underrepresented show, but Bateman would also deserve it in his own right.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kahn, House of Lies (Hostile Takeover)
Cheadle last year earned his fifth career nomination, and now returns as the only Emmy-nominated element of Showtime’s dark comedy. The pilot couldn’t win him the Emmy last year, and now he’s submitted a formidable half-hour in which he makes an enormously self-destructive move in the service of building up his career. If he didn’t win last year, I don’t see him winning this year, but it could happen.

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1)
C.K., who got seven individual nominations last year, upped his total this year to nine. Last year, he went to Afghanistan in his hour-long episode and encountered serious things in his stand-up tour, and this year he lives a more relatable half-hour in which he sets his sights on finding a girlfriend and struggles to ask the perfect girl out. With his show finally nominated for Best Comedy Series, this could easily be his year.

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode 202)
I’m so happy to see LeBlanc back here after his show took a year off for his skewering self-portrayal on one of TV’s most underrated comedies. He was nominated two years ago for this performance and three times a decade ago for “Friends.” While I would have had him submit one of the darker later half-hours in which he struggles with weight issues, his selection of the installment in which he tries desperately to buy back the friendship of his writers is a pretty great choice. I’m not sure it will net him the win, but it’s definitely a good showcase.

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (The Habitation Configuration)
This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Parsons, who won in 2010 and 2011. His show continues to do well, and Parsons is clearly its most entertaining element. In his submitted episode, Sheldon has to deal with the consequences of making the wrong choice when his friend insults his girlfriend and he sides with his friend. Parsons is on fire as always, and this is a great submission that could easily win him his third trophy.

Who should win (based on entire season): LeBlanc
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Cheadle, Parsons, or Bateman
Who will win: With last year’s winner, Jon Cryer, out of the race, all bets are off. It could be any of these men in theory, and I’ll give the edge to C.K. over Baldwin and Bateman.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Connie Britton as Rayna James, Nashville (Pilot)
Britton is officially on fire with her fourth nomination in four years for a total of three different roles. She was nominated in this race twice for “Friday Night Lights,” which any TV watcher will attest is a more demanding role. That said, she’s clearly well-liked, and her work in the first episode of ABC’s country music drama is strong and could win over a few voters.

Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland (Q and A)
Danes had all the momentum in the world last year and rightfully took home this award for her performance as a bipolar CIA agent. In season two, she’s just as unhinged and spectacular, and her submission is this year’s choice episode, which allows her to come face-to-face with the fruits of her labor and deal with the repercussions in front of her peers. This category is stacked this year, but she’s probably still the frontrunner.

Michelle Dockery as Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
The arguable star of PBS’ period drama returns as a nominee this year after being nominated last year. She fits in well to the ensemble but doesn’t exactly stand out from it, which suggests that she doesn’t have much of a shot at taking home the Emmy. Her submitted episode finds her bickering with her beloved Matthew about his late wife’s father’s fortune, which is a decent showcase but hardly the one to win this for her.

Vera Farmiga as Mother, Bates Motel (First You Dream, Then You Die)
This is a nomination that’s all because of the role, though Oscar-nominated actress Farmiga does deserve credit for bringing the famous character from Alfred Hitchcock’s “Psycho” to such fearsome life. In the pilot episode of this dreary show, she emasculates her son but even more memorably deals methodically with an armed intruder, and it’s fair to say that she has a good shot at staging an upset and winning this prize.

Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (The Better Half)
This is Moss’ fifth consecutive nomination. Moss has always been one of the most intriguing and individualistic part of her show’s large ensemble, and this is just as good a submission as ever, taking her from one complicated, impossible relationship to another. The fact that her show, in five years, has never won a single Emmy suggests that it’s not going to happen now, and certainly not in a field this crowded.

Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope, Scandal (Happy Birthday, Mr. President)
After a short first season last year, Washington is in this race for her show’s full second season. She’s not the showiest political fixer nominated this year – that would be Kevin Spacey in the drama actor category – but she does have one of the meatiest roles. In her submitted episode, Washington gets to play a more emotional Olivia, happy as the history of her affair with Grant is replayed and she deals with the horror of him being in critical condition in the present. Her show has plenty of buzz right now, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she won.

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 10)
Wright has the difficult task of performing opposite two-time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey, and she responds admirably, making Frank’s wife just as devious and brutally unfeeling as he is. In her submitted episode, she decides that he hasn’t been equitable in their dealings and moves to take back some of the power in their relationship, which serves as a fantastic platform for her talents that could well win her the award.

Who should win (based on entire season): Danes or Wright
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Danes
Who will win: It’s more than likely to be Danes, but it could also be Washington or Wright.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Hugh Bonneville as Robert Crawley, Downton Abbey (Episode 5)
I was surprised that Bonneville returned as a nominee after his show dominated all of the acting categories last year since he is one of the show’s least energetic players. That said, he is the family patriarch, and in his submitted episode, he has to cope with a devastating event for which he is partially to blame. He’s not its most dynamic part, but it’s still a decent showcase that could get him a few votes, though he’s unlikely to upstage any of the other nominees in this category

Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (Say My Name)
Cranston took this award home three years in a row and then lost for the first time last year with another terrific submission. His show is coming to an end just a few weeks after Emmy night, so he’s going to be red-hot. His season five submission – the penultimate episode – is just as good as any other, and he has more than one superb scene to showcase his abilities in his interactions with Mike and Jesse. He definitely has a good shot at taking home Emmy number four.

Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom (We Just Decided To)
Daniels in a newcomer to this category for HBO’s ensemble drama, which wrapped its second season this month. The show underperformed in a big way on nominations day, and that hurts Daniels’ chances considerably. His submission, on the other hand, is spot-on, since it gives him the chance to have an on-air meltdown in the show’s pilot. I don’t think he’s popular enough to win as the only nominee in this category whose show is not recognized in the Best Drama Series category.

Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (In Care Of)
I wrote last year that it was hard to believe that, five years in, Hamm still didn’t have an Emmy. That’s still true one year later, despite a strong submission last year. His character does descend to mesmerizing new depths in the season six finale, publicly discussing things he’s never before said out loud to a group of people. I see no reason why he’d win now since he hasn’t before, but it would be hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve it.

Damian Lewis as Sergeant Nicholas Brody, Homeland (Q and A)
I didn’t have much faith in Lewis to win this last year for his layered performance as a prisoner of war who returns to the U.S. with mixed allegiances. That he did is an enormous testament to the popularity of his show, which netted Lewis a Golden Globe for his work in the show’s second season. To avoid too many spoilers, I’ll only say that Lewis’ character encounters his most difficult situation yet in his submitted episode, which makes a good case for him to repeat.

Kevin Spacey as Frank Underwood, House of Cards (Chapter 1)
Spacey’s presence in this category might alone be enough to win him the Emmy. Though he lost in the miniseries category when he was nominated several years ago for “Recount,” he has a much showier role here, and in the groundbreaking Netflix drama’s first episode, he lets his true soul be seen when he plots revenge after failing to get a major appointment from the President. I think this is his to lose – he’s too big a name and his role is all too juicy.

Who should win (based on entire season): Lewis or Cranston
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Lewis or Hamm
Who will win: Either of the previous winners – Lewis or Cranston – could repeat, but I think this is going to Spacey for sure.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Dot-Marie Jones as Coach Shannon Bieste, Glee (Shooting Star)
This is the third consecutive nomination for Jones for her portrayal of McKinley High’s football coach. Her submitted episode features a school shooting, and there’s little comic material given to Jones. It’s a decent dramatic performance, but not one that belongs in this category. I can’t imagine that Jones would win, especially this year.

Melissa Leo as Laurie, Louie (Telling Jokes/Set Up)
Oscar Winner Leo has been nominated for an Emmy once before, for her supporting performance in HBO’s miniseries “Mildred Pierce” in 2011. Here, she gets the opportunity to play a blind date set up for Louie who turns out to have quite a fearsome personality. It’s a fun if vile performance, and I think she’s a decent bet to win as the most uncensored nominee in this race.

Melissa McCarthy as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
This is the second consecutive nomination for McCarthy as host of SNL. She won the Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series trophy two years ago for “Mike and Molly” and was nominated again last year. Now that she’s been dropped from that race, she might have better luck here following in the footsteps of two female SNL hosts to win Emmys. She gives it her all in her episode, even if her characters are relatively repetitive and predictable.

Molly Shannon as Eileen, Enlightened (The Ghost is Seen)
This is Shannon’s second-ever Emmy bid, following her 2000 nomination in the now-defunct variety performer category. Her role on HBO’s cancelled series is a much more stoic one, but she plays so brilliantly off series creator Mike White that her place here is well-deserved. Her submitted installment is a particularly emotional and terrific one, and recognizing her offbeat performance would be a great way to honor this departed series.

Elaine Stritch as Colleen Donaghy, 30 Rock (My Whole Life is Thunder)
Stritch won this award for this role back in 2006, and was nominated three times in a row after that before taking two years off. Now she’s back for her final episode, in which she gives her son guilt as her health rapidly declines. Stritch has two more Emmys under her belt, so she’s a formidable enemy for her fellow actresses, and could easily bookend her show with Emmys for its first and final seasons.

Kristen Wiig as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Kristen Wiig)
Wiig comes to this category after departing her show as a series regular last year following four consecutive nominations in the supporting actress category and returning to host its season finale. Wiig has many familiar characters and feels at home among the cast of her show, but there’s nothing particularly different about having her as host then having her as an ensemble player. A number about all the things she remembers incorrectly about her time on the show won’t cut it, and I think Wiig will have to settle for a fifth nomination.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Shannon
Who will win: I think it will be Leo or Stritch, and I’ll give the edge to the former Emmy champ.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Bobby Cannavale as Mike Cruz, Nurse Jackie (Walk of Shame)
This is Cannavale’s second consecutive nomination for this role. He previously won this prize for “Will and Grace” in 2005, and is also nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series for his work this year on “Boardwalk Empire.” Unfortunately, Cannavale’s chances in this category are slim since his submission contains barely any comedic material, and his dramatic effectiveness requires a context that the episode doesn’t quite provide.

Louis C.K. as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Louis C.K.)
C.K. upped his individual nomination total from seven to nine this year thanks to his stint hosting the NBC variety series. C.K. is also recognized for directing, writing, producing, and starring in his own series, and here he gets the opportunity to mock his show and have a good time showing that he’s not always the most awkward guy in the room. The second half of the show, however, isn’t nearly as good as the first, but it seems that voters like C.K. almost no matter what he does, so I think he’s got a great shot here.

Will Forte as Paul L’astname, 30 Rock (My Whole Life is Thunder)
Forte earns his first acting Emmy nomination this year for his recurring role as the cross-dressing Jenna Moroney impersonator who marries her in the middle of a funeral in his submitted episode. Forte is one hell of a committed comedian, and this is the best showcase for his work. His show has won once before in this race, for actor Tim Conway, and he could well be the next victor for the departed series.

Nathan Lane as Pepper Saltzman, Modern Family (A Slight at the Opera)
This is Lane’s fourth nomination in this category, his second for this role, and one of two mentions this year (he’s also recognized for his dramatic guesting on “The Good Wife”). Lane was nominated before for this role two years ago. His show has had exactly one nominee in this race each year, and none of them have won yet. In his submitted episode, Lane gets to encourage Mitchell to unleash his aggression towards his father on the golf course, which is thoroughly entertaining. The role is certainly showy, but definitely the less impressive of Lane’s two nominated performances this year.

Bob Newhart as Arthur Jeffries, The Big Bang Theory (The Proton Resurgence)
Interestingly, despite five previous acting bids, Newhart has yet to win an Emmy. The former star of not one but two very popular Emmy-nominated comedy series just turned 84, and he’s a lot of fun in his guest spot as the actor who played Professor Proton on Sheldon and Leonard’s favorite childhood TV series. Newhart doesn’t try too hard but still manages to be funny, and he seems like an easy pick for anyone feeling nostalgic.

Justin Timberlake as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Justin Timberlake)
Timberlake’s odds are hard to beat. He’s hosted this show four times beforehand, and of the two times that he’s been eligible in this category, he’s won. His fifth gig incorporates a handful of other five-time hosts, which detracts from him as the focal point of the episode, but he seems so gleefully at home that it’s not a problem. He does have another SNL host to compete with in this race, but that didn’t present a problem two years ago when he beat Zach Galifianakis.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Forte or Newhart, though C.K. is good too
Who will win: It’s a tight race, but I’d go with Newhart to edge out Timberlake and C.K.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Linda Cardellini as Sylvia Rosen, Mad Men (Man with a Plan)
The former “Freaks and Geeks” star is unrecognizable as Don’s married neighbor on AMC’s hit drama. Her past on that slight Emmy favorite might help her if voters are familiar with her name, but the fact that no actor on her show has ever won an Emmy all but negates her chances. Her submitted episode, however, is a knockout, showing her ride the rollercoaster of Don’s manipulation from enthralled participant to bored rebel intent on ending the charade.

Joan Cusack as Sheila Jackson, Shameless (A Long Way From Home)
This third consecutive nomination for Cusack represents the biggest case of category fraud I’ve ever seen and demonstrates for the third time that voters don’t watch this show. Cusack’s frenzied mother is certainly a fantastic performance, but she’s far from the best element of this show (which I’d argue is a comedy), and is most definitely not a guest star. In her submitted episode, Cusack tries to deal with her boyfriend’s sex addiction, which gives her a fun platform to be weird as usual. I don’t think it’s enough for a win, but the fact that she’s in this race at all is baffling, so it’s hard to predict how she’ll fare.

Jane Fonda as Leona Lansing, The Newsroom (The 112th Congress)
One of the only elements of Aaron Sorkin’s drama that was nominated for an Emmy was Fonda’s scenery-chewing portrayal of an executive who always gets her way. Two-time Oscar winner Fonda has only once before been nominated for an Emmy, for 1984’s “The Dollmaker,” which she won. The show’s third episode, which marks her first appearance, is a great choice since it shows her wielding her fury for the first time. She’s certainly the showiest of these nominees.

Margo Martindale as Claudia, The Americans (The Colonel)
Martindale is clearly a new Emmy favorite, earning the lone non-technical nomination for FX’s freshman series after winning an Emmy for her tour de force supporting role on the second season of “Justified.” Her part on this show isn’t nearly as meaty or compelling, but it’s still one of the most dynamic in the submitted installment, the season finale, in which she grapples with her new fate and even gets to go into the field to execute a mission of her own.

Carrie Preston as Elsbeth Tascioni, The Good Wife (Je Ne Sais What?)
I nominated Preston for an AFT Award in this category last year, and thought that she might make the cut then for her multi-episode arc last year. Instead, she got recognized for an even more impressive episode in which she found herself on the other side of the courtroom as the defendant, maintaining her individuality all the way through. Her costar Martha Plimpton won this race last year, and I’d love to see Preston, who has a good shot, take it home this year.

Diana Rigg as Olenna Tyrell, Game of Thrones (And Now His Watch is Ended)
Rigg is here equally because of her status as a respected actress and the juicy nature of her role. As the matriarch of House Tyrell, she squares off with the Lannister family and manages to shame everyone into some sort of submission, including patriarch Tywin in her submitted episode. This is her sixth nomination (her first was in 1967), and she has won once, in 1997.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Rigg, Preston, or Cardellini
Who will win: It’s a battle between Rigg and Fonda, and I think the latter will be the victor.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Dan Bucatinsky as James Novak, Scandal (Nobody Likes Babies)
Bucatinsky is actually a two-time Emmy nominee thanks to his producing credits on “Who Do You Think You Are?” and “Web Therapy,” both last year. Now, he’s an odd but interesting choice in this race, recognized for his recurring role as Cyrus’ husband, who in his submitted episode is subpoenad to testify against Cyrus. He sure ignites a lot of passion into his portrayal, but I doubt he’ll be able to win given that he’s not necessarily the showiest actor of the hour or the most well-known actor in this category.

Michael J. Fox as Louis Canning, The Good Wife (Boom De Yah Da)
This is Fox’s third consecutive nomination for this part, yet he still hasn’t won, losing to Jeremy Davies last year and Paul McCrane the year before that. He does have five Emmys to his name, so he shouldn’t be underestimated. His submitted episode introduces his unexpectedly kindhearted wife, and affords him the opportunity to work in close quarters with his friendly nemesis Alicia again. It’s as good as ever, and Fox is now a familiar face on the show.

Rupert Friend as Peter Quinn, Homeland (Q and A)
The Showtime thriller followed up on its successful first year of nine nominations with eleven this year, and Friend is one of the five actors nominated, for his committed turn as a mysterious new agent assigned to work with Carrie. His submitted episode is also the choice of the show’s two stars, and there’s nothing quite like stabbing a man in the hand to make an impression. Given the actors who have won this category in past years, I wouldn’t be surprised if Friend was the winner.

Harry Hamlin as Jim Cutler, Mad Men (A Tale of Two Cities)
Despite being nominated for a Golden Globe three years in a row for his role on “L.A. Law,” this is Hamlin’s first shot at an Emmy. I wrote in my review of his submitted episode that this was a great showcase for him, since it allows him to interact with new characters and demonstrate his viewpoints. It’s still hard to argue with the fact that no “Mad Men” actor has won an Emmy yet, but maybe Hamlin could change that.

Nathan Lane as Clarke Hayden, The Good Wife (I Fought the Law)
Lane now has five career Emmy nominations, including a bid in the comedy guest acting category this year. This is his first time being nominated for a dramatic guest stint. He picked the season premiere, which introduces his character rather than one that already features him as an established player, but I did remark that he was particularly excellent in a scene with Zach Grenier’s David Lee. He could easily win since he’s a talented actor with a clear penchant for diversity of roles.

Robert Morse as Bertram Cooper, Mad Men (For Immediate Release)
Morse is a sporadic returning nominee, recognized for the first, third, fourth, and now sixth season of his show. He won an Emmy back in 1993 for his work on “American Playhouse.” This year, he chose an episode that puts his character in a tough situation, forced to consider financial realities and burdened with the duty to inform others about it. No actor from his show has ever won an Emmy, and I’d be perplexed to find out that he was the one to break that streak this year.

Who should win (based on entire season): N/A
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Hamlin, Friend, or Lane
Who will win: I’d say Friend or Hamlin, but I think it will be Bucatinsky because it’s the kind of choice that voters have gone for in the past.