Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Morena Baccarin as Jessica Brody, Homeland (State of Independence)
Baccarin was a possibility to be nominated last year for her work as the long-suffering wife of a returning Marine who was held as a prisoner of year and presumed dead for eight years. In her submitted episode, she decides not to take her fate lying down anymore, saving face at a public event when her husband doesn’t show up and then telling him she wants a divorce. This is a competitive field, but Baccarin will surely garner votes.
Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife (The Seven Day Rule)
For the first time in her show’s four-year history, Baranski is the only nominee in this category from her show. With costars Archie Panjabi and Julianna Margulies snubbed, Baranski is her show’s only series regular representative. Though she’s now earned eleven Emmy nominations, she’s unlikely to win since her show is well past its Emmy prime. Her submitted episode gives her a good scene or two, like when she talks to Alicia woman-to-woman about her promotion offer, but it’s hardly a substantial enough entry.
Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones (And Now His Watch is Ended)
Clarke is the first member of her cast aside from Peter Dinklage ever to be nominated for an Emmy. The young actress commanded the small screen with her dragons as a princess vying for the true throne. Unleashing dragon fire after being talked down to by a rude enemy is a pretty magnificent way to get a point across, and that makes this a grand spotlight for Clarke, who, while good, won’t be able to eclipse her more experienced elders in this race.
Anna Gunn as Skyler White, Breaking Bad (Fifty-One)
As her show progressed and got even darker, Gunn became one of its most intriguing players. This is her second consecutive nomination. Her submitted episode gives her one of her best opportunities to display her reaction to the reality of what her husband is doing, walking into a pool with all of her clothes on in her most memorable moment. Her show is at the height of its popularity right now, and it’s possible that she could win if she managed to outpace Smith.
Christina Hendricks as Joan Holloway, Mad Men (A Tale of Two Cities)
This is the fourth nomination for Hendricks. Last year seemed like the best chance for Hendricks to become the first member of her cast ever to take home an Emmy, but, unfortunately, she couldn’t beat Maggie Smith. Her submitted episode isn’t the knockout that it was last year, but it does still give her the opportunity to circumvent her superiors and to show off why she’s so terrific in this role. I’m not sure how much it will matter, but no would argue with her taking home this prize if it happened.
Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham, Downton Abbey (Episode 1)
Smith won last year with little effort for her undeniably witty portrayal of an eternally sarcastic countess always more than willing to share her opinions with those around her. For the second year in a row, she submitted the season premiere, which this year allowed her to go toe-to-toe with Shirley MacLaine’s matriarch. The fact that MacLaine didn’t get nominated should only highlight Smith more, and I think that she would have won this race without even appearing for more than a moment in an episode.
Who should win (based on entire season): Hendricks or Baccarin
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Hendricks, Gunn, or Baccarin
Who will win: It seems a foregone conclusion that Smith will take it, though I suppose Gunn could too.
Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
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