SAG Predictions

For the second year in a row, the Screen Actors Guild announces its choices for the best in film and television one day before the Golden Globe nominations announcement. It used to be the other way around, which meant that the Globe list was a more extensive, inclusive list, employing comedy and drama categories as well as lead and supporting races for television, and the later SAG list was a thinner, more specific pool of nominees. As such, I got used to preparing my Golden Globe musings for Thanksgiving week, and didn’t do extensive SAG predictions. After preparing the broader list, it’s less exciting to zero in on a list with fewer nominees. Therefore, please find my SAG predictions for all TV categories below with overall notes at the bottom.



Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Tina Fey (30 Rock)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
House of Cards
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
30 Rock
Veep

There are some very crucial differences between the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards when it comes to the TV categories this year. Two major new comedies that caught on with both Emmy voters and Globe voters didn’t do the same in year one with SAG members – “Girls” and “Veep,” and whether that happens this year is anyone’s guess. Usually, new shows don’t break in right away, especially not comedy series. Last year, the one and only freshman inclusion in any category was Jeff Daniels. A few similarities with the Globes that don’t match the Emmys: “Boardwalk Empire” was nominated for its second season while “Game of Thrones” wasn’t, while many expect the opposite to happen this year, as was the case with the third season of both shows with this year’s Emmy nominations. “Orange is the New Black” is entered as a drama here rather than a comedy, which change its chances considerably. It’s hard to know if SAG voters will follow the Emmy precedent and snub the likes of Julianna Margulies and Zooey Deschanel, and then there’s the continued fact that “American Horror Story” is considered a drama series here and a miniseries everywhere else. I recognize fully that I’m predicting three Netflix shows to reap ensemble nods, and I think it will happen. My no guts, no glory pick is “Rectify” earning an ensemble mention. Check back here Wednesday morning for analysis of the nominees by category, and leave your own thoughts in the comments below! Film predictions were posted yesterday at MoviesWithAbe.com.