The Morning After: The Emmy Awards

Last night's Emmy Awards were decently fun, and certainly better than last year's, but they still weren't completely terrific. I'm proud to announce that my prediction total more than doubled from last year, rising from 22.6% to 53.1% (or 17/32) - I even won the pool at my Emmy party. I'm also happy that I successfully predicted all six top categories (drama series, comedy series, miniseries, TV movie, variety series, and reality-competition program). I did, sadly, underestimate the upset potential of Bryan Cranston, Zeljko Ivanek, and Dianne Wiest. I, much like everyone else, was rather shocked by Jean Smart's surprise victory for "Samantha Who." There isn't too much to say about the show, because there really wasn't much to it. Share your thoughts in the comments! Some of my brief thoughts below:

The good:
"Mad Men" and "30 Rock" take home deserved trophies with touching acceptance speeches.
Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey give great, extremely happy acceptance speeches.
Pretty much all of the winners seem genuinely excited, even three-time champ Jeremy Piven.
Ricky Gervais - absolutely hilarious. After missing out last year when he won (though I don't think he deserved it), he totally made up for it this year.
Martin Sheen acting as president once again.
Don Rickles - so much fun.
The Smothers brother - though I'm unfamiliar with him and his award seemed awfully random, he gave a great speech.

The bad:
The reality hosts. They tried their best, but it just didn't work out too well. It was never really a good idea to begin with.
Dianne Wiest isn't there to accept her trophy, and as a result, still no one has heard of "In Treatment."
The "TV's greatest moments" bit - didn't really work, and nothing seemed all that interesting with those fake set pieces.
No truly incredible surprises, and no love for "Dexter" at all.

The ugly:
The last winning speech of the night ("Mad Men") being cut short.
Kirk Ellis getting his speech cut short not by music but by a complete cut-away after he started talking about days when politicians used big words.
The reality hosts (I'm thinking they belong here a bit more than in the bad).

I may have more thoughts soon, but the three-hour premiere of "Heroes" will be taking up much of my time tonight.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Final Predictions

These are my final predictions for the winners for the 2008 Emmy Awards. I’ve gone over the series categories extensively, so look to the sidebar on the left of the page to click to individual races. I have no real expertise in the mini-series or movies categories, so my best guesses are listed below, as well as for the variety categories. As with last year, I won’t be live-blogging the awards because I’m hosting an Emmy party of my own, but you can find up-to-the-minute results at the Goldderby forums and probably over at the Emmys official website. I’ll respond after the Emmys with my thoughts
(and my prediction score!). The Emmys air Sunday night at 8pm on ABC. Enjoy the awards! Post any comments before or during below!

No guts, no glory: DEXTER for Best Drama Series, BATTLESTAR GALACTICA for Best Writing

Drama Series: Mad Men
Comedy Series: 30 Rock
TV Movie: Recount
Mini-Series: John Adams
Reality Competition Program: The Amazing Race
Variety Series: The Daily Show
Reality Host: Tom Bergeron
Individual Performance, Variety: Don Rickles
Drama Lead Actor: Jon Hamm
Drama Lead Actress: Glenn Close
Drama Supporting Actor: Michael Emerson
Drama Supporting Actress: Chandra Wilson
Drama Directing: Mad Men – “Pilot”
Drama Writing: Mad Men – “Pilot”
Comedy Lead Actor: Alec Baldwin
Comedy Lead Actress: Tina Fey
Comedy Supporting Actor: Jeremy Piven
Comedy Supporting Actress: Kristen Chenoweth
Comedy Directing: Pushing Daisies – “Pie-lette”
Comedy Writing: The Office – “Dinner Party”
TVM/MS Lead Actor: Paul Giammati
TVM/MS Lead Actress: Phylicia Rashad
TVM/MS Supporting Actor: Tom Wilkinson
TVM/MS Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
TVM/MS Directing: John Adams
TVM/MS Writing: Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale
Variety Directing: 80th Annual Academy Awards
Variety Writing: Saturday Night Live

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

The series category are a bit more refreshing and reassuring to predict than the others because voters actually see a nice sample of six episodes rather than just one telling installment. This formula also allows voters to get an idea of the shows. Anyone is sure to think that Boston Legal is positively ridiculous, however, they may find it relatively funny and occasionally dramatic in its ultimate political message. The selections of House, which include the season premiere and two-part season finale, create a nice story arc for an otherwise standalone show. Dexter gives non-fans a taste of its brilliance but also a potential overdose of its violent tendencies. Those three, in my mind, have a very low chance of winning and should find themselves better off in the still far more competitive Best Actor category with their leading men. The race is between one past winner and two new shows. Lost won for season one and then missed out on a nomination the next two years. This year, the selection of episodes isn’t as brilliant as it could be, still assailing non-watchers with heavy mythology that won’t be relevant or meaningful to them. The show does have a monstrous fan following, so it could manage what I would consider a surprise win. Both Damages and Mad Men have wisely chosen the first few and last few episodes of their respective freshmen seasons so as to extensively introduce all the characters and storylines, and then revisit them a few weeks later, with enough time left for everything to get refreshed. Between those two, it comes down to the simple fact that “Mad Men” is a far better show. “Damages” just doesn’t compare in terms of brilliance and quality, and that’s not just my personal opinion talking. History urges me to be cautious, however, looking at how legal drama “The Practice” beat out the freshman season of “The Sopranos.” Critically speaking, “Damages” is a far more inventive show than “The Practice” so watch out for a possible repeat of that line of thinking.

Who should win (based on entire season): “Lost”
Who should win (based on individual episodes): “Mad Men”
Who will win: “Mad Men” (alternate: “Damages”)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

My logic, summarily, remains the same as it was when I correctly predicted last year’s triumph: any six episodes of 30 Rock are likely to be better than any six episodes of any of the other nominees. “Rosemary’s Baby,” “Greenzo,” and “Cooter” are terrific episodes and the other three have more than their share of excellent moments. For the sake of analysis, let’s take a look at the other contenders. Curb Your Enthusiasm has a fine sample of episodes, just like any year – but along that line of thinking, it’s never been able to win, and has fewer nominations than ever this year. Same goes for Entourage, which despite surprise nominations for directing and supporting star Kevin Dillon, seems to be fending off many attacks from critics and fans alike that this season sucked (I’m not of that opinion, but I don’t get a vote). If Two and a Half Men ever won, people would go crazy, but I’ve heard that the episodes go over incredibly well at the voting panels because every once in a while they are in fact funny. And then there’s The Office, the only past winner besides “30 Rock” here and the only one with a shot in hell to take Tina Fey and company down. The season as a whole was unfulfilling, but the sampling is somewhat impressive: “Local Ad,” “Dinner Party”, and the two-part season finale “Goodbye Toby” are great while “Chair Model” is debatable and “Did I Stutter?” leaves something to be desired. It’s possible that the less subtle but still hilarious comedy of “The Office” could propel it to a win, but everything seems to add up to “30 Rock.” Important note to end on: if “Pushing Daisies” had in fact been nominated, this conversation would have a whole different spin.

Who should win (based on entire season): “30 Rock”
Who should win (based on individual episodes): “30 Rock”
Who will win: “30 Rock” (alternate: “The Office”)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing & Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

Entourage seems least likely to take home this trophy after losing it three years in a row for far better episodes like the pilot, “Sundance Kids,” and “One Day in the Valley.” “No Cannes Do” is a good episode, but won’t be able to score “Entourage” its first non-Jeremy Piven Emmy win. The Office won a writing award last year but has yet to manage a directing win. “Money” and “Goodbye Toby” are impressive installments that could up the show’s chances a notch. 30 Rock’s wild and brilliant “Rosemary’s Baby” may stand a good shot, but I’m looking to history for my prediction. The past four years have rewarded hot freshman shows, “Arrested Development,” “Desperate Housewives,” “My Name is Earl,” and “Ugly Betty.” I don’t think Flight of the Conchords is quite beloved enough for Emmy’s taste, and the heavily nominated Pushing Daisies should score Emmy gold for its imaginative pilot.

Who should win: “30 Rock” – “Rosemary’s Baby”
Who will win: “Pushing Daisies” – “Pie-lette” (alternate: “Flight of the Conchords” – “Sally Returns”)

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

Flight of the Conchords was a bit of a shock here, and I think its reward is its nomination. “Yoko,” while an amusing episode, isn’t the show’s best. Pushing Daisies has a better chance in the directing category. 30 Rock has two terrific episodes up its sleeve that are both excellently written – “Rosemary’s Baby” and “Cooter” – and the show is so successful that a writing win wouldn’t be the least bit surprising. My money is on The Office, which came back from the writers’ strike with style with its “Dinner Party” episode. It’s a hundred times better than last year’s winning episode “Gay Witch Hunt,” in part because all of the submitted episodes of “The Office” were far better this year than last. I think it has a terrific shot at winning.

Who should win: “The Office” – “Dinner Party”
Who will win: “The Office” – “Dinner Party” (alternate: “30 Rock” – “Rosemary’s Baby”)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing & Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

I don’t think there’s any way that this will go to the Boston Legal episode “The Mighty Rogues.” The show may do well elsewhere (hopefully not), but that wasn’t the episode that could win this (I’m thinking “The Court Supreme” or “Tabloid Nation” might have had a shot). The Breaking Bad pilot is also unlikely, since previous big-name pilots like “The Shield” and “Nip/Tuck” have missed out on the win in this category and “Breaking Bad” is an underdog’s underdog. House could take this one home for part one of the season finale, “House’s Head,” but I think this is a battle to the death between the pilots of this year’s major new shows: Damages and Mad Men. Either one has a decent shot, but my money is on “Mad Men,” which required much more careful and skilled direction than the woefully overrated “Damages.”

Who should win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot”
Who will win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot” (alternate: “Damages” – “Pilot”)

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

Sad to say, but Battlestar Galactica’s episode “Six of One” doesn’t stand much of a chance. I sort of agree, since I think a stronger episode (“Guess What’s Coming to Dinner” or “The Hub”) would have had a better shot. BSG seems like a default nominee now, so maybe next year for its final season it can finally win this. Out of the other four, I’m not sure who will take home this prize. I’m tempted to discount The Wire, but years of universal acclaim could make this a consolation prize. I’d assume that the season finale of Mad Men would pale in comparison to the pilot, but I look to two historical moments for guidance: “The West Wing” and “The Sopranos,” where the episodes “In Excelsis Deo” and “College” beat out the pilots of the respective shows in this category. Still, I think this is down to the two pilots that should also fight for directing: Damages and Mad Men. As with directing, I give the edge to the better, more fully-respected show, “Mad Men.”

Who should win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot”
Who will win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot” (alternate: “Damages” – “Pilot”)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

With many expected past nominees out of the running this year, like Jaime Pressly, Jenna Fischer, Conchata Ferrell, and Elizabeth Perkins, as well as presumed nominee Dana Delany, this race is fairly unpredictable. Holland Taylor is the only “Two and a Half Men” nominee I think could ever really win an Emmy, given her past win for a similarly recurring role on “The Practice”, but not this year. Jean Smart is great on “Samantha Who”, but I don’t see her getting rewarded this year, given the relatively low impact of the show awards-wise. Amy Poehler is a major wild card, since variety performers aren’t usually eligible in this category. Her performance throughout the episode is far too scattered, and doesn’t really compare to the other actresses here. Vanessa Williams makes for a great villain on “Ugly Betty”, and could easily prevail with a semi-amusing episode where she throws Betty White out of a cab. I think this race belongs to the wonderful Kristin Chenoweth of “Pushing Daisies”, who is positively charming in her episode. This is a perfect role for her, and I think she’ll be rewarded as such.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kristin Chenoweth
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Kristin Chenoweth
Who will win: Kristin Chenoweth (alternate: Vanessa Williams)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

I don’t think there’s any way that this will go to the Boston Legal episode “The Mighty Rogues.” The show may do well elsewhere (hopefully not), but that wasn’t the episode that could win this (I’m thinking “The Court Supreme” or “Tabloid Nation” might have had a shot). The Breaking Bad pilot is also unlikely, since previous big-name pilots like “The Shield” and “Nip/Tuck” have missed out on the win in this category and “Breaking Bad” is an underdog’s underdog. House could take this one home for part one of the season finale, “House’s Head,” but I think this is a battle to the death between the pilots of this year’s major new shows: Damages and Mad Men. Either one has a decent shot, but my money is on “Mad Men,” which required much more careful and skilled direction than the woefully overrated “Damages.”

Who should win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot”
Who will win: “Mad Men” – “Pilot” (alternate: “Damages” – “Pilot”)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

It’s fairly likely that last year’s exact lineup will result in the same winner. Kevin Dillon is out of this race, his nomination being a major surprise and his reward. Jon Cryer is probably out, since I never really picture “Two and a Half Men” being rewarded in any case, and he’s thoroughly annoying in his submitted episode (“Meander to Your Dander”). Rainn Wilson is pretty terrific in the “Money” episode of “The Office”, but I don’t think the show will do too well with Emmy voters this year. Neil Patrick Harris could benefit from his coming out last year and positive feelings about “Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog”, but only true “How I Met Your Mother” fans really appreciate his relationship with Ted and Robin in his submitted episode, “The Goat”. I still think that two-time winner Jeremy Piven is set to repeat again, especially since he’s the only thing about “Entourage” that didn’t get assailed by critics and fans along with the rest of the show. His submitted episode, “The Day Fuckers”, shows him in prime hard-working mode and I’m fully expecting him to give another acceptance speech on Emmy night.

Who should win (based on entire season): Rainn Wilson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Jeremy Piven
Who will win: Jeremy Piven (alternate: Neil Patrick Harris)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

I really can’t see any of these people winning. With Rose Byrne, January Jones, Connie Britton, and Yunjin Kim out of the running, I hardly think any of these actresses are deserving – and more importantly, could pull off a victory. Dianne Wiest is a respected actress and could manage a win like Blythe Danner a few years ago for “Huff” – an older actress on a show no one’s ever heard of in a small supporting role. Wiest does do great work on “In Treatment”, and her submitted episode could make voters believe she is on her show just as much as other nominees in this category, rather than only nine times during the season. Sandra Oh, nominated since year one of “Grey’s Anatomy”, chose a rather poor episode to submit in which she’s barely a player and not a good one at that. She had a better chance the past few years. Candice Bergen, a multiple Emmy award winner for previous work on other shows, is nominated this year for “Boston Legal” with an impressive episode submission but a devastatingly overrated performance. She may win simply because of the respect she’s accrued over the past. I think it’s down to two actresses, but I can’t get over the fact that neither of them are terribly impressive. Rachel Griffiths is far and away the best actor on “Brothers and Sisters”, and her plotline is a moving one. If she couldn’t win for her stunning work on “Six Feet Under”, I can’t imagine she’d be able to for this lesser role, but I know that awards don’t work that way. There’s no set precedent, but rather a case-by-case basis. If there’s no one better, there’s no reason she can’t prevail. Her only real obstacle is Chandra Wilson, whose performance on “Grey’s Anatomy” has never really impressed me, but whose storyline in her episode rivals Griffiths’ for dramatic impact. And her performance was enough to win her a SAG two years ago, and this year she has no real internal competition, with Oh effectively out of the race with a poor submission and Heigl ineligible because she didn’t submit herself. I really don’t know what will happen here; I think this is the most unpredictable race.

Who should win (based on entire season): No one
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Dianne Wiest, I suppose
Who will win: Chandra Wilson (alternate: Rachel Griffiths)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

John Slattery and Ted Danson shouldn’t factor into this race too prominently, despite playing important roles on monstrously popular new shows. Slattery’s “Mad Men” episode is a heartbreaking one, but his performance overall has the least impact. Danson was good on “Damages” but he won’t win this, especially due to internal competition (keep reading). William Shatner has already won, so I think he won’t repeat, but his episode submission from “Boston Legal” does demonstrate why voters nominated him in the first place, and it’s a compelling argument for another win. Michael Emerson has been playing ambiguous evil on “Lost” for two years, and now that his “Lost” competition Terry O’Quinn is out of the way, victory should be pretty easy, especially with a killer submission (“The Shape of Things to Come”). But watch out for Zeljko Ivanek, whose surprise nomination for “Damages” shows just how popular that show is and that this could finally be a chance to reward the hard-working Ivanek. His episode submission is spot-on, but as I’ve mentioned before, his accent isn’t, and voters might not feel comfortable jumping from Danson’s episode, where Ivanek barely plays a part, to Ivanek’s, where he suddenly takes the spotlight. If Blair Underwood was here, I’d think he could beat Emerson, but I’m not confident Ivanek will upset.

Who should win (based on entire season): Michael Emerson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Michael Emerson
Who will win: Michael Emerson (alternate: Zeljko Ivanek)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

My personal favorite of the season, Mary-Louise Parker, probably has the least chance of winning. Her episode choice wasn’t terrific, and it’s unlikely she’ll ever win since she would have won for the first season if anything. America Ferrera is unlikely to repeat after last year, since her buzz is down, though her episode presents her in a very funny way, even if it’s not quite as charming as last year’s winning pilot submission. Julia-Louis Dreyfus could be seen as hilarious, to some, in her submitted episode (“One and a Half Men”), but it’s devastatingly over-the-top, and hardly funny, in my opinion. More importantly, she won already. Christina Applegate failed to win the Golden Globe or the SAG for “Samantha Who”, and her non-pilot submission choice may cost her the win. Sympathy for her recent cancer news might propel her to victory, however. Tina Fey had an incredible year, winning both the Golden Globe and the SAG, and her episode choice is perfect, showcasing her neuroses and, as pointed out elsewhere, her ability to eat on camera. I think it’s an unbeatable combination, and “30 Rock” should soar to unbelievable heights at this year’s Emmy awards.

Who should win (based on entire season): Mary-Louise Parker
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Tina Fey
Who will win: Tina Fey (alternate: Christina Applegate)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

Charlie Sheen is commonly written about as the worst actor on television. Any awards recognition for his work on “Two and a Half Men” would bring shame upon the entire world of television. His episode submission does showcase him as a funny character, but the acting is dreadful. Lee Pace could pull off a surprise victory for “Pushing Daisies”, but the snubbing of his show in the Best Comedy Series category seems to indicate that Emmy voters aren’t completely in love with his show’s brand of humor. Tony Shalhoub is a force to be reckoned with, winning this trophy three times in the past five years, losing only to one-time entrants Kelsey Grammer and Ricky Gervais. His episode submission, as pointed out by Tom O’Neil, includes an amusing scene where he recalls his own birth. He could repeat, but I think this category is down to two men who somehow haven’t won Emmys for their respective shows: Steve Carrell and Alec Baldwin. Carrell chose a brilliant episode to submit (“Goodbye Toby”), in which he’s terrific and goes from disgusting to likeable over the course of forty minutes. He’s chosen well before (“The Injury”) and that hasn’t worked. He’ll win eventually, I hope, but this year should be Baldwin’s turn. Baldwin lost last year because of a poor episode submission (I didn’t expect Gervais, but I knew Baldwin wouldn’t win). This year, he’s armed with a good submission made unbeatable by a hilarious scene where he imitates every member of Tracy Morgan’s family. How can he lose?

Who should win (based on entire season): Steve Carrell
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Alec Baldwin
Who will win: Alec Baldwin (alternate: Steve Carrell)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

I imagine, and hope, that the buzz for Sally Field is all gone after her surprising (in my mind) victory last year. Her episode this year is even more embarrassing, and she’s barely in it. Mariska Hargitay’s time has passed, after she won two years ago. Her episode submission, in my opinion at least, is also rather weak, but she’s won before and is least likely of anyone to win this category. Holly Hunter could have a shot, and her episode submission of the “Saving Grace” finale was a wise choice. But she’s third wheel to a two-person race: Kyra Sedgwick and Glenn Close. Sedgwick lost the past two years to Hargitay and Field, and would be the frontrunner this year if not for a widely-praised Close. I think Close deserved the win in this category three years ago for “The Shield” (let’s not even talk about Patricia Arquette), but she’s heavily overrated on “Damages”. Regardless, her episode, the series’ pilot, got everyone talking, and I’d be surprised if she didn’t win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kyra Sedgwick
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Kyra Sedgwick
Who will win: Glenn Close (alternate: Kyra Sedgwick)

Creative Arts Emmys: Report

So for some obnoxious reason they don't broadcast the Creative Arts Emmy Awards for a whole week, so my rundown comes secondhand from Tom O'Neil at Goldderby. A good summary of the winners by series can be found here. I'm sad to report that my batting average so far stands at 1/4. Cynthia Nixon claimed the Best Drama Guest Actress trophy for her work on "Law & Order: SVU", while my predicted runner-up Glynn Turman was so very deservedly rewarded for his incredible work on "In Treatment." It's really too bad that Blair Underwood wasn't even nominated, because I'm confident he could easily have won for his role of a lifetime on the show. The comedy winners are far more regrettable, two very undeserving performers. Tim Conway was unfunny and was hardly trying on "30 Rock" - it looks like name recognition carried him not only to a nomination, but a win. My heart goes out to Will Arnett. On the comedy guest actress side, all the "30 Rock" actresses were eclipsed by previous winner Kathryn Joosten of "Desperate Housewives" which I guess wasn't terrible, but it's not a comedic performance. As far as the other categories go, it's worth pointing that while Sarah Silverman lost her Emmy for Best Comedy Guest Actress, she did win the Best Music & Lyrics category for "I'm Fucking Matt Damon." Also, "Mad Men" took home the Best Main Title Design award and "Pushing Daisies" won both Best Main Title Theme Music and Best Dramatic Underscore. Great wins by those shows. More Emmy predix coming this week, followed by the big night Sunday, September 21st. Check back frequently!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

This is probably the toughest category to predict. I think any of these six men could win here, with the exception of Gabriel Byrne, whose role on “In Treatment” is neither popular nor showy enough. Bryan Cranston could pull off the same kind of victory as Michael Chiklis did six years ago for “The Shield” but, as I’ve said before, it took me a few episodes to really admire his performance and his submission of the pilot is sort of more about the show than him. Michael C. Hall faces the obstacle of portraying a serial killer, and not a terribly sympathetic one at that (in the episode he chose – “There’s Something About Harry”), but “Dexter” did manage to get nominated for Best Drama Series, and I’d rejoice if he somehow managed to win. Hugh Laurie has somehow never won an Emmy, and I think his episode submission (“House’s Head”) may finally get him there. I was even impressed, and I often find him too over-the-top. The unfortunate possibility of James Spader winning another Emmy, this time for yelling at the Supreme Court, seems all too likely. I’d like to go out on a limb and predict that voters will go for the subdued, respectable type with Jon Hamm of “Mad Men”, who nails his episode submission with a heartbreaking sales pitch. Once again, this could go any way.

Who should win (based on entire season): Michael C. Hall
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Jon Hamm
Who will win: Jon Hamm (alternate: Hugh Laurie)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Going out of order with my predictions because the guest categories are awarded this Saturday. Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

This is a really tough category to predict especially since only one actor is actually deserving of any accolades at all. I’d count out Shelley Berman, whose nomination for “Curb Your Enthusiasm” came out of left field and was in no way merited this season. That leaves four “30 Rock” guest stars. Tim Conway is a past Emmy favorite, but his role is one-note and I imagine he got nominated based solely on name recognition. Steve Buscemi wasn’t on “30 Rock” for more than a few minutes, but voters may be itching to reward him after he was passed over for his work on the fifth season of “The Sopranos” in favor of costar Michael Imperioli. Rip Torn has an amusing role, but doesn’t really flesh it out as well as he could. His work over the years could garner him the award. I think the winner will be the deserving champ among this bunch - Will Arnett, whose Devon Banks is a hilarious adversary for Alec Baldwin’s Jack Donaghy.

Who should win: Will Arnett
Who will win: Will Arnett (alternate: Rip Torn)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Going out of order with my predictions because the guest categories are awarded this Saturday. Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

This category could go any way. Kathryn Joosten seems unlikely because her comedic material on “Desperate Housewives” was practically nonexistent this year, but she’s won before in this category, so she could stand a shot. Polly Bergen will probably go the route of past “Desperate Housewives” mothers Dixie Carter, Shirley Knight, and Lupe Ontiveros and lose the award due to the recurring nature of her role. Sarah Silverman seems too unaccomplished to win this award, but her top 10 placement for Best Comedy Actress shows that someone clearly likes her, and she was good on “Monk.” Carrie Fisher was funny on “30 Rock,” but I doubt that the former Princess Leia will be taken too seriously for her self-parodying guest spot. Leave it to the other two “30 Rock” guest stars - Elaine Stritch, last year’s winner who has another great episode this year, and past “Sopranos” Emmy champ Edie Falco, who, despite a deadpan role, should manage to win an accolade for playing to her comedic side.

Who should win: Elaine Stritch
Who will win: Edie Falco

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Going out of order with my predictions because the guest categories are awarded this Saturday. Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

If there’s anyone who can’t win here, I think it’s Sharon Gless. She shows up her weekly work on “Burn Notice” with an uber-creepy, extremely disturbing guest spot as a psychotic, murderous nut on “Nip/Tuck.” Good acting, I suppose, but I believe that voters, like me, will be extremely turned off by the show’s content. Diahann Carroll’s role is essentially just fluff on “Grey’s Anatomy,” and anyone taking this category seriously should easily dismiss her. Ellen Burstyn, who I’m sure is fantastic on “Big Love,” may miss out to the nature of the show and the need to regularly watch it to appreciate her performance (I haven’t seen it since I don’t watch the show). Angelica Huston is a big-name actress with an extremely dramatic role on a hit, Emmy-rewarded series, so she definitely stands a good chance to win for “Medium.” My bet, however, is recent Emmy winner Cynthia Nixon, who tackles multiple personalities during her guest stint on “Law & Order: SVU.”

Who should win: Cynthia Nixon
Who will win: Cynthia Nixon (alternate: Anjelica Huston)

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Going out of order with my predictions because the guest categories are awarded this Saturday. Nominees are pictured in alphabetical order.

I don’t imagine Oliver Platt figuring into the race much for this one. His guest-starring role on “Nip/Tuck” was amusing, but hardly a role deserving of accolades. Ditto Stanley Tucci, who won last year in the corresponding comedy category for “Monk.” I think his recurring arc on “ER” was probably terrific (it’s the only one I haven’t seen), but it’s probably a less showy performance than others here. Charles Durning has been asking for awards attention since season one of “Rescue Me,” and this year he finally gets it. He could win based on his impressive filmography and great work on the show. The same goes for Robert Morse, especially since “Mad Men” could sweep all the categories. I think the race is down to two people: Glynn Turman and Robin Williams. Turman was incredible on “In Treatment,” and if voters actually watch the episode, he has a decent shot, and it would be nice to see him rewarded after Blair Underwood was altogether snubbed. Williams, in a highly promoted guest spot, seems the likely winner for his impressive turn on “Law & Order: SVU” due in part to the rareness of his TV guest appearances.

Who should win: Glynn Turman
Who will win: Robin Williams (alternate: Glynn Turman)