Emmy Episode Analysis: Best Comedy Series

This year, I’m splitting my top two category predictions into two posts each. I went through the statistics and chances for each show for The Film Experience, and in this post, I’ll be looking at the submitted episodes for each show, with titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BARRY
“The Show Must Go On, Probably,” “What?!,” “ronny/lily,” “The Truth Has a Ring to It,” “The Audition,” “berkman block”

For its second season and second consecutive bid, this show selected six of its eight episodes. There’s only one that I really didn’t like, and that one - “ronny/lily” – scored bids for directing and writing, so obviously I’m in the minority. Omitting the second and third installments, which feature more exposition, isn’t a problem, and while this show may still be too violent for voters, this showcase offers a fairly accessible and formidable summary of what the show has to offer.

FLEABAG
“Episode 2.1,” “Episode 2.2,” “Episode 2.3,” “Episode 2.4,” “Episode 2.5,” “Episode 2.6”

This is the only show in this category that aired just six episodes, for its second season, and therefore has them all included as submissions. I loved every bit of this season, as I think most did, and there’s a certain style to the way each episode is introduced that should invite first-time viewers into its weird world. The season premiere and finale are particularly strong, but each episode is immensely watchable, and the only issue will be if any viewers unfamiliar with this brilliant show are turned off by its decidedly odd nature.

THE GOOD Place
“Everything is Bonzer: Part 1,” “Everything is Bonzer: Part 2,” “Jeremy Bearimy,” “Don’t Let the Good Life Pass You By,” “Janet(s),” “Pandemonium”

This show is here for the first time for its third season, selecting six of its thirteen episodes. Among them are its two-part premiere and its finale, both of which serve as strong reboots to the show’s existing narrative and may be good access points for new viewers. Both “Jeremy Bearimy” and “Janet(s)” are fun, creative episodes, while “Don’t Let the Good Life Pass You By,” while a great installment, might be more attuned to knowledgeable fans. These episodes are all great, and a shocking victory for them is unfortunately way too far outside the realm of possibility.

THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
“Simone,” “We’re Going to the Catskills,” “Midnight at the Concord,” “Let’s Face the Music and Dance,” “Vote for Kennedy, Vote for Kennedy,” “All Alone”

The defending champion in this category submitted six of its ten second season episodes, including its standout premiere and finale. Its fourth and fifth episodes are wonderfully Catskills-centric, a high point of the arc featured this season, and the sixth was all about the fallout in a great way. The penultimate episode comes closest to the pilot in terms of its presentation of its title protagonist’s comedy material. It’s hard to beat these episodes, since they’re all so immersive and committed in their portrayal of the time and characters. This show has a great case to win again.

RUSSIAN DOLL
“Nothing in this World is Easy,” “The Great Escape,” “A Warm Body,” “Alan’s Routine,” “The Way Out,” “Ariadne”

This freshman Netflix dramedy submitted six of its eight episodes, starting with the pilot that first finds its protagonist dying over and over again on her thirtieth birthday. The next three episodes are involving in showing how she begins to deal with this new, constantly restarting reality, and then the seventh and eighth installments fast-forward to a more problematic time as events converge and inevitabilities threaten to set in. It’s a decent way to get into this show and its unique energy, but there’s something that feels much more fleeting about these episodes than lasting. I don’t think it will be able to garner enough votes to propel it anywhere close to a win.

SCHITT’S CREEK
“The Crowening,” “Love Letters,” “Rock On!,” “Meet the Parents,” “The Hike,” “Cabaret”

This is the first time that this fifth-season comedy has been nominated, submitted six of its fourteen episodes. This was my first time encountering the show, which is accessible enough even if some of the background information isn’t there. The first two episodes of the season were decent enough, as was the penultimate installment that featured some major developments, but I wasn’t as taken with the sixth and eleventh, along with the finale, which was a bit overstuffed. This show’s inclusion in the race is its victory – it would be truly appalling if this show somehow managed a win here.

VEEP
“Iowa,” “Pledge,” “South Carolina,” “Super Tuesday,” “Oslo,” “Veep”

The seventh final season of this show, which won this award three years in a row before missing the eligibility window last season, had seven episodes, meaning that all but its second installment are here. The best among them are “South Carolina” and the series finale, while the others juggle staying relevant in today’s absurd political world with decidedly outlandish parodies of current events. These episodes aren’t as strong as the last set which won this award, though they’re better than season five’s list. These episodes are obviously indicative of what this show is like, so if voters are on board with that, these episodes should do just fine.

What should win (based on entire season): “Fleabag,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “The Good Place,” or “Barry”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Fleabag,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” or “The Good Place”
What will win: Check out my next post with statistical data and my rundown of each show’s overall chances!

Next up: That’s a wrap!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

I've already gone through and looked at the six episodes submitted by each of the nominees for Best Drama Series, and for a full survey at their chances, check out my complete rundown of the category for The Film Experience.

Emmy Episode Analysis: Best Drama Series

This year, I’m splitting my top two category predictions into two posts each. I went through the statistics and chances for each show for The Film Experience, and in this post, I’ll be looking at the submitted episodes for each show, with titles are in parentheses. Beware of major spoilers for listed episodes.

BETTER CALL SAUL
“Smoke,” “Breathe,” “Something Stupid,” “Coushatta,” “Wiedersehen,” “Winner”

For its fourth nomination in this category, its first bid since its third season was nominated in 2017, this show chose the first two and last four episodes of the ten-episode season. They’re all winning submissions which chronicle protagonist Jimmy’s attempts to stay relevant without his law license, featuring magnetic scenes with him spinning masterful lies, often with his far more ethical partner Kim by his side. These choices are as good as they’ve ever been, though there’s nothing particularly showy about the storyline as compared with the three equally strong previous years.

BODYGUARD
“Episode 1,” “Episode 2,” “Episode 3,” “Episode 4,” “Episode 5,” “Episode 6”

While this show merited only two nominations, I’d say it easily has the best showcase when it comes to episodes. It’s one of two shows which has its entire season represented given that it was comprised of only six episodes, and each one of them is more enticing and action-packed than the next. There’s plenty of suspense, but where this show – and each of its episodes – truly excels is when it catches viewers off-guard, including a major development halfway through that represents its sincere commitment to viewer satisfaction. If episodes were all that mattered, I’d put my money on this show having a chance to upset.

GAME OF THRONES
“Winterfell,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “The Long Night,” “The Last of the Starks,” “The Bells,” “The Iron Throne”

Like the previous show, this one has all six of its episodes submitted, though none of them are only an hour, giving it yet another advantage over its competition. Its episodes feature a lot of greetings, talking, action, talking, action, and moderate resolution – in that order. The final season was highly divisive but Emmy voters have embraced it wholeheartedly, and it’s actually likely that the few voters unfamiliar with the show will be more impressed than devoted fans with what these episodes have to offer. Writing-wise, episodes two and four are strong, while episodes three and five feature staggering production values that make for one hell of an engaging viewing experience. It will be hard to beat these.

KILLING EVE
“Do You Know How to Dispose of a Body?,” “Nice and Neat,” “The Hungry Caterpillar,” “Desperate Times,” “Wide Awake,” “You’re Mine”

This show’s first nomination, for its sophomore season, comprises six of its eight episodes. Interestingly, one of the two omitted is actually star Jodie Comer’s submission. I wasn’t overly fond of the first four episodes of the season, which track the fallout from the season finale, and appreciated the last two much more when unexpected partnerships and relationships had started to build. This show is definitely weird and not for anyone, and I’m not sure that any of these episodes, taken two at a time, would be able to win over voters.

OZARK
“Reparations,” “The Precious Blood of Jesus,” “Outer Darkness,” “One Way Out,” “The Badger,” “The Gold Coast”

This show’s first nomination, for its second season, includes the first two hours, the sixth and seventh, and the ninth and tenth (the finale). I’d weight them all equally, featuring some decent performances and a whole lot of moodiness. Regular viewers are certainly invested in the storyline, but it’s hard to access that by checking in to these episodes. To me, what’s most disappointing is that there are always more miserable obstacles rather than any true progress achieved. I’m not sure that’s different than season one, but this desolate series doesn’t feel like a winner to me.

POSE
“Pose,” “Access,” “Giving and Receiving,” “The Fever,” “Love is the Message,” “Mother of the Year”

This freshman FX series submitted six of its eight episodes, opting for the first four, the sixth, and the eighth. As someone who wasn’t enthralled by the pilot because the subject matter isn’t of particular interest to me, I found myself much more engaged upon returning to the show to sample the remaining five installments. In addition to the fantastical nature of the ball scene, this show does human drama very well, and these episodes make a great case for spotlighting this particular underrepresented portion of the world. There’s an emotional case for this show to upset, but I don’t think it’s quite universal enough for all viewers, sadly.

SUCCESSION
“Celebration,” “Which Side Are You On?,” “Austerlitz,” “Prague,” “Pre-Nuptial,” “Nobody Is Ever Missing”

I watched the pilot of this show and wasn’t into it, and when I came back to watch the rest of the submissions, I was surprised to find myself skipping all the way to episode six. The decision to select episodes six through ten along with the pilot is an intriguing one, though I did find the plot extremely intriguing if still considerably over-the-top. Evidently, this is a case where a show might take longer for viewers to get into, and smart submissions showcase the best of what it has to offer, which is a large and talented ensemble portraying chaos as well as they can. This show is definitely watchable, but these episodes do still feel a bit off-the-rails.

THIS IS US
“Vietnam,” “Sometimes,” “Songbird Road: Part One,” “Our Little Island Girl,” “Waiting Room,” “R and B”

This show, back here for the third time in a row, had the most episodes to choose from, with eighteen at its disposal. I’m actually not impressed with those selected, with only the last one, the penultimate hour of the season, as a smart choice. “Vietnam” was too flashback-heavy in a way I found pointless, and both “Sometimes” and “Songbird Road: Part One” continued the melancholy focus on Jack’s brother without much success. The last three were a marked improvement, dealing instead with strong characters like Beth and Kate, but this show isn’t going to win with this slate.

What should win (based on entire season): “Bodyguard” or “Better Call Saul”
What should win (based on individual episodes): “Bodyguard” or “Pose”
What will win: Check out my next post with statistical data and my rundown of each show’s overall chances!

Next up: Best Comedy Series

What I’m Watching: Our Boys

Our Boys: Season 1, Episode 7 “Chapter 7: Judging by Its End” (B+)

This was a very tough episode to watch, though it was done very well. I mentioned when I first started watching that this was a personal subject for me since it’s something I remember playing out a few years ago and which I watched closely because I was coordinating youth trips to Israel that left on the day that the three Israeli boys were found. This show’s focus has been much more on the aftermath of those murders, and seeing the devout faith that has been twisted into notions of harming other people in God’s name is deeply unnerving. I know the melody that Yosef Haim was singing to his child after buying the gasoline, and my wife and I cringed when Yinon told Avishai that he should take off his yarmulke because it was for the sake of “pikuach nefesh,” or saving a life, when they were about to go out and abduct someone. The commission of the crime was almost casual, and Yosef Haim saw it as clear-cut revenge, invoking the names of Israeli killed as he beat Mohammed to death. I wasn’t sure what the purpose of the reenactment was, but it turned out to be a vivid way to understand Avishai’s worldview and how he believed that there was a distinction between what he did and the act of murder. This was a hypnotic, self-contained episode, one whose implications are sure to be felt as Avishai’s cooperation becomes official testimony and leads to severe consequences for all involved.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alec Berg and Bill Hader, Barry (ronny/lily)
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag (Episode 2.1)
Josh Siegal and Dylan Morgan, The Good Place (Janet(s))
Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle and Stacy Osei-Kuffour, Pen15 (Anna Ishii-Peters)
Leslye Headland, Natasha Lyonne and Amy Poehler, Russian Doll (Nothing in this World is Easy)
Allison Silverman, Russian Doll (A Warm Body)
David Mandel, Veep (Veep)

This is the sixth year in a row that Berg is nominated thanks mostly to previous bids for “Silicon Valley”, and Hader returns from last year. Both are also nominated for writing. Hader, Waller-Bridge, and Lyonne are all nominated for acting. Mandel has two previous writing bids for his show. This episode of “Fleabag” is also up for directing. Poehler has plenty of previous nominations, with one bid in this category from 2012 for “Parks and Recreation and three for writing for the Golden Globes. Only “Pen15” isn’t nominated for Best Comedy Series. “Veep is the only previous winner in this category nominated this year with a trophy from 2015. A show with two nominations hasn’t won since 2013.

What should win: “Fleabag” or “The Good Place”
What will win: It’s far from a sure thing, but this is where Fleabag may just be able to pull off a victory.

Next up: Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series!

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.
Alec Berg, Barry (The Audition)
Bill Hader, Barry (ronny/lily)
Mark Cendrowski, The Big Bang Theory (The Stockholm Syndrome)
Harry Bradbeer, Fleabag (Episode 2.1)
Amy Sherman-Palladino, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (All Alone)
Daniel Palladino, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (We’re Going to the Catskills!)

Sherman-Palladino won this award last year for her show’s pilot. Cendrowski was nominated last year, and now contends for the series finale of his show. Hader was nominated last year and contends again for acting on his show. Berg has a previous directing bid and five previous writing nominations for “Silicon Valley.” Hader and Berg are also nominated for writing “ronny/lily” and the same installment of “Fleabag” is also up for writing. Only “The Big Bang Theory” isn’t nominated for Best Comedy Series.

What should win: These are all fine choices, save for Hader’s episode, which I really didn’t like. I’d probably pick “Fleabag” or either of the “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” hours.
What will win: I’m picking Sherman-Palladino to repeat for “All Alone.”

Next up: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Peter Gould and Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul (Winner)
Jed Mercurio, Bodyguard (Episode 1)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones (The Iron Throne)
Bruce Miller and Kira Snyder, The Handmaid’s Tale (Holly)
Emerald Fennell, Killing Eve (Nice and Neat)
Jesse Armstrong, Succession (Nobody Is Ever Missing)

This is the seventh time that Benioff and Weiss, who also contend for directing the series finale of their series, have been nominated. They won twice, in 2015 and 2016. Schnauz was nominated in 2013 for “Breaking Bad.” This is the third consecutive bid for Miller, who won in 2015 for the pilot of his show and who now contends for a “hanging episode” from the second season. “Killing Eve” was nominated last year in this race. Pilots and series finales do tend to win this award often, which bodes well for “Bodyguard” and “Game of Thrones,” respectively.

What should win: I’d love for it to be “Bodyguard,” but I don’t see that happening, sadly.
What will win: I’m not sure any of these are strong enough to topple the juggernaut that is The Iron Throne.

Next up: Best Directing for a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order by show. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones (The Iron Throne)
David Nutter, Game of Thrones (The Last of the Starks)
Miguel Sapochink, Game of Thrones (The Long Night)
Daina Reid, The Handmaid’s Tale (Holly)
Lisa Brühlmann, Killing Eve (Desperate Times)
Jason Bateman, Ozark (Reparations)
Adam McKay, Succession (Celebration)

The only returning nominated director from last year is Bateman, who, once again, is also contending for his performance on the show. Sapochnik won this award in 2016 for “The Battle of the Basterds,” and Nutter, who was also nominated for “The Sopranos” in 2006, won in 2015 for “Mother’s Mercy.” Benioff and Weiss won for writing those two “Game of Thrones” episodes, and are also nominated for penning the series finale this year. This marks the fourth season in a row that “Game of Thrones” has at least two bids, and it contends this year for half of its final season. “The Handmaid’s Tale” earns a nomination for the third year in a row despite only being eligible for the last three “hanging” episodes of its second season. It won this award two years ago.

What should win: I think I’d give it to “The Long Night” over the rest of these.
What will win: It’s really just a question of which “Game of Thrones” episode wins. I’m picking The Long Night to triumph over the series finale. It could also be the “Succession” pilot, but I doubt it.

Next up: Best Writing for a Drama Series

What I’m Watching: The Righteous Gemstones

The Righteous Gemstones: Season 1, Episode 5 “Interlude” (B)

I wasn’t prepared for this flashback episode, one that took place almost entirely in the past and wasn’t particularly necessitated by anything that happened in the previous hour. I will say that it was worthwhile to see the fantastic performance from country singer Jennifer Nettles, who embodies Aimee-Leigh with a truly kind energy, something that has been lost in the way that even Eli interacts with the people around him, both his family and his flock. We also got to understand how Baby Billy ended up in the place he did, sidelined by Eli after doing the same to him on purpose because he thought that Eli was trying to encourage his sister not to tour with him after she found out about her surprise pregnancy. The scene where they performed the song and dance was spectacular, and represents a much more wholesome vibe than the Gemstones now emanate. Baby Billy casually mentioning that he had already sold some of the land without talking to her was a crucial turning point, and that was also likely the loss of innocence on Eli’s part since he had to go to bat for his wife, whose eventual death turned him into a much less friendly and happy man. Both Jesse and Judy were recognizably horrible, with Jesse openly complaining about how much he hated the idea of getting a younger sibling and Judy shouting down anyone, including her parents, who dared to give her a birthday present that didn’t satisfy her. I’m eager to return to the present in the next outing to see where everyone is now after this moderately helpful and informative trip to the past.

What I’m Watching: The Affair

The Affair: Season 5, Episode 4 (C+)

This show is beginning to go off the rails again, and I’m not seeing any semblance of coherence anytime soon. The different perspectives were valuable because they portrayed the same events from conflicting viewpoints, but now it seems that they’re just designed to showcase separate storylines. I’m not sure we’ll ever hear from Janelle, and now we get to see the world’s brattiest character, Whitney, who inherited only the worst characteristics from her father, as she has the chance to offer her take on the world because, you guessed it, she’s having an affair. Little about her world is interesting, and the fact that Jonathan Cake’s Furkat is obsessed with her and her horrible boss, played by Perrey Reeves from “Entourage,” only notices her when she sees how that connection should be useful, were far from saving graces. Furkat begging for forgiveness was cringe-worthy, and somehow Whitney is still going to marry her future husband who can’t share his artwork with her. I’d much rather be learning more about Joanie, who again only got five minutes at the end of the hour, which merely confirmed something that is hardly a shock: Noah is dead in the future. He’s not doing too well in the present, furious at his representatives because they’re foregoing protecting his interests in favor of Sasha’s, and the worst possible thing he could do is partner with Margaret to help her execute the absurd plan of planting sex toys in Sasha’s bedroom to cause a rift between him and Helen.

Pilot Review: Undone

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Pilot Review: Unbelievable

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Pilot Review: The I-Land

I'm trying something new with my pilot reviews, so from now on, check out video takes on each new series, which I'll embed below and you can also watch by subscribing to movieswithabe on YouTube.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Vote for Kennedy, Vote for Kennedy)
Borstein won this award last year. She is also nominated for voicing “Family Guy” characters for the third time, another award she won last year. I thought Borstein was funniest when she was nearly killed by hapless thugs in the season premiere (costar Marin Hinkle’s submission), but she chose the penultimate hour which found her experiencing some difficulty with her number one client. Trying to get everyone she knew – and even those she didn’t – to vouch for her star act is undeniably appealing, and might be just what Borstein needs for a repeat win.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (Pledge)
This is the sixth nomination for Chlumsky, whose show took the season off last year. She’s contended for all but one of her show’s seasons, and now she has her final shot for a funny episode in which she, rarely one to keep her emotions in check, gets truly angry and shouts down abortion clinic protesters in a way that could only occur on this show. She’s still far from the central part of her show, something that could hurt in a very crowded field this year.

Sian Clifford as Claire, Fleabag (Episode 2.3)
This is Clifford’s first Emmy nomination. Her portrayal of the title character’s sister is definitely fantastic in each episode, though I found the season premiere to be the stronger showcase of her work. Having Fleabag help her in a professional setting was a wonderful way, however, to draw out some of her angst in the best possible way, and anyone watching the show and the episodes closely might be compelled to choose her over her showier and much more well-known costar.

Olivia Colman as Godmother, Fleabag (Episode 2.4)
Colman, who surprised to win the Oscar for Best Actress for “The Favourite” this past year, was nominated for an Emmy in 2016 for “The Night Manager.” Colman is indeed superb in this show, but she doesn’t play a huge part in season two, and certainly not in her submitted episode. This will ultimately be a test of if voters care about the episodes, since Colman, who’s likely to win the drama actress award next year for “The Crown,” doesn’t deserve to beat the other nominees in this category for her selected episode.

Betty Gilpin as Debbie Eagan, GLOW (Mother of All Matches)
Gilpin was the only acting nominee from her show last year when it was nominated for Best Comedy Series, and now she’s the only major nominee from the show as a whole. In its second season, this show has gotten away from the wrestling matches as the inspiration for each episode and shifted them, at least in this case, to the climax, and so this installment provides a great opportunity for Gilpin to shine as Debbie tries to rid herself of all remnants of her ex-husband. She won’t win without her show being nominated, but she does deserve to be here.

Sarah Goldberg as Sally Reed, Barry (The Audition)
This is Goldberg’s first nomination. She’s definitely here in part because of the popularity of her show, but she absolutely deserves her place. Though it wasn’t always relevant to the main storyline, Sally’s arc expanded in season two, and she could have picked from a number of excellent samples of her work. Her choice of an episode that finds her about to make it big and still ready to deliver a nonstop rant is very good, and, if enthusiasm for her show is really strong enough, she could emerge victorious from this field.

Marin Hinkle as Rose Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Simone)
This is the first nomination for Hinkle, the only member of her show’s cast to be newly recognized for its second season. While often a background character in season one and even in a good part of season two, Rose is front and center after making a huge life change without much of her family noticing. To me, it’s one of the best submissions in this category, but she’ll have a hard time besting costar and defending champion Alex Borstein, who is also heavily featured in this hour in a great way that Hinkle just isn’t in hers.

Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Host: Liev Schreiber)
This is the sixth consecutive nomination for McKinnon, who won twice, in 2016 and 2017. Last year, I wrote that not playing Hillary Clinton was a disadvantage, but she opens her submitted episode this year so strongly as Jeff Sessions that it’s easy to see how voters could choose her again this year. Her episode is one of the strongest of all the selections in this category, and could catapult her to a third win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Borstein, Clifford, or Goldberg
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Hinkle, McKinnon, or Goldberg
Who will win: It could be Colman, but I’m betting on two in a row for Borstein.

Next up: Best Directing for a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of minor spoilers for listed episodes.

Alan Arkin as Norman Newlander, The Kominsky Method (Chapter 2: An Agent Grieves)
Arkin has four previous Emmy nominations, earned between 1967 and 2003. He earned Golden Globe and SAG bids for his portrayal of a loyal agent who turns to his best friend after the death of his wife, which occupies the majority of his submitted episode. Arkin is a hugely respected veteran of the industry, and he’s not phoning anything in here. His show missed the cut in the top race after winning the corresponding Golden Globe, which doesn’t bode well for the show’s overall chances, but Arkin might still manage to prevail.

Anthony Carrigan as Noho Hank, Barry (Past = Present x Future Over Yesterday)
I chose Carrigan as my winner in this category last year, but this is his first Emmy nomination. In the show’s second season, friendly mobster Noho Hank has to contend with taking the reins of his people and trying to maintain his relationship with the increasingly distant Barry. In his submitted episode, he has to deal with a new threat and approaches it with his typical sunny optimism. Unfortunately, even if he deserves it, Carrigan won’t be able to beat out his two more well-known costars.

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (Veep)
This is Hale’s sixth nomination, returning to this race after his show took last year off. He won for the second and fourth season of the now-concluded comedy. Though I would have picked other members of the cast to be honored this season, Hale continues to be excellent, particularly in the series finale that finds his loyalty to the woman who constantly demeans him tested. His show isn’t represented too well compared to previous years, but that never stopped him in the past. He’s a good bet to win again.

Stephen Root as Monroe Fuches, Barry (berkman > block)
Astonishingly, this is Root’s first Emmy nomination. He was on my list in the past for both “True Blood” and “The West Wing,” and seems to be most famous for his portrayal of Milton with the missing stapler in “Office Space.” In the second season of the HBO hitman comedy, Root took on a more prominent role as Fuches tried to stay relevant. The season finale has both comedy and drama for Root to display, though he’s not likely to beat his showier costar Henry Winkler.

Tony Shalhoub as Abe Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (We’re Going to the Catskills!)
Shalhoub was nominated for this role last year, and previously won three out of his eight consecutive bids for starring as an obsessive-compulsive detective on “Monk.” He recently won the SAG Award, beating out two of his fellow nominees here and two leading contenders. There’s no argument that his show is wildly popular, and there isn’t a much better showcase for the perfection of his performance than watching Abe try to relax in his familiar Catskills confines. I predicted him to win last year, and he might actually do it this time.

Henry Winkler as Gene Cousineau, Barry (What?!)
Winkler won this award last year after five previous acting nominations for “Happy Days” and guest acting. Winkler was celebrated by the audience when he took the stage last year, indicating that there is great reverence for the seasoned actor, who is a great fit for the role of a self-involved acting teacher on HBO’s well-liked comedy. In a season that frequently featured Gene dealing with a devastating loss, his submission focuses more on his fractured relationship with his son, which isn’t as compelling. He could repeat, but I think his fellow nominees have stronger showcases.

Who should win (based on entire season): Shalhoub or Arkin
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Shalhoub or Arkin
Who will win: It could be Winkler again or Shalhoub, but I’m picking Hale for a third career victory.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series