SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus), Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha), Margaret Qualley (Maid), Jean Smart (Mare of Easttown), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown)

For your information: Erivo was nominated for her role in “Harriet.” Qualley contended as part of the “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” ensemble. Smart was up as part of the “24” cast in 2006 and has another individual nomination this year for her performance in “Hacks,” as well as being nominated with its ensemble. Winslet has nine previous individual bids, which led to wins for “Sense and Sensibility,” “The Reader,” and “Mildred Pierce.” She earned three additional ensemble bids. Of the many times that two performers from one project have been nominated together, only once has one of them triumphed, when Drew Barrymore defeated costar Jessica Lange for “Grey Gardens” in 2008. When more than two performers were up from one project, it led on all three occasions to one of them winning, not that it’s the case this year.

Who should win? I didn’t watch all of Erivo or Qualley’s work. Coolidge was a delight and Smart was entertaining, but I think I’d probably give this to Winslet.

Who will win? It could be Coolidge or even Qualley, but Winslet feels like the safest bet.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

Last year’s nominees: Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You), Nicole Kidman (The Undoing), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit), Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere)

The best place to start is with the actors who earned Emmy nominations this past season for series from 2021. That list includes Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown), Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha), Julianne Nicholson (Mare of Easttown), and Jean Smart (Mare of Easttown). Others options who weren’t nominated include Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad) and Danielle Brooks (Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia). New possibilities are led by Margaret Qualley (Maid), Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage), Andie MacDowell (Maid), Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus), Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick), and Melissa McCarthy (Nine Perfect Strangers).

Current predictions:
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage)
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha)
Margaret Qualley (Maid)
Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Cate Blanchett’s motivated activist (Mrs. America), Michaela Coel’s sexual assault survivor (I May Destroy You), Nicole Kidman’s troubled mother (The Undoing), Anya Taylor-Joy’s chess prodigy (The Queen’s Gambit), and Kerry Washington’s protective mother (Little Fires Everywhere).

For your information: Blanchett won previously for “Blue Jasmine,” “The Aviator,” and as part of the “Return of the King” ensemble. She has six additional individual bids and five ensemble bids, but this is her first TV nomination. Kidman won this prize in 2017 for “Big Little Lies.” She has seven additional individual bids and five ensemble bids. Washington was nominated in 2016 in this category for “Confirmation,” in 2013 for “Scandal,” and back in 2004 as part of the “Ray” ensemble. This is the first nomination for Taylor-Joy and Coel. Taylor-Joy defeated Blanchett and Kidman at the Golden Globes.

Who should win? I didn’t watch all of Coel’s work, though everything I’ve heard about it suggests it’s incredible. From the others, I would probably choose Taylor-Joy over Blanchett and Washington, though all three were very good.

Who will win? I think this is safely Taylor-Joy.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

Last year’s nominees: Patricia Arquette (The Act), Toni Collette (Unbelievable), Joey King (The Act), Emily Watson (Chernobyl), Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon)

Three of the lead Emmy nominees and four of the supporting Emmy nominees are eligible here. “Unorthodox” and its star Shira Haas are not. Likeliest among the eligible are Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America) and Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America) with Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere), Octavia Spencer (Self Made), Tracey Ullman (Mrs. America), Margo Martindale (Mrs. America), and Holland Taylor (Hollywood) also theoretically possible. The Critics Choice Association also cited Daisy Edgar-Jones (Normal People) and Winona Ryder (The Plot Against America), and additional contenders like Zoe Kazan (The Plot Against America), Rose Byrne (Mrs. America), Allison Janney (Bad Education), and Reese Witherspoon (Little Fires Everywhere) could show up from the first half of the year. The CCA added Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit), Marielle Heller (The Queen’s Gambit), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You), Tessa Thompson (Sylvie’s Love), and Betsy Brandt (Soulmates) to the conversation, though they curiously snubbed Nicole Kidman (The Undoing) and Jessie Buckley (Fargo). 

Current predictions: 
Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America)
Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America)
Nicole Kidman (The Undoing)
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit)
Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Patricia Arquette’s manipulative mother (The Act), Toni Collette’s determined detective (Unbelievable), Joey King’s sick child (The Act), Emily Watson’s nuclear physicist (Chernobyl), and Michelle Williams’ committed dancer (Fosse/Verdon).

For your information: Arquette won this award last year for “Escape at Dannemora” and in 2014 for her supporting role in “Boyhood,” and had three individual bids for the TV series “Medium.” Collette was nominated in 2009 for “The United States of Tara” and won as part of the “Little Miss Sunshine” cast in 2006. Watson was nominated in 1998 for “Hilary and Jackie” and in 2011 for “Appropriate Adult,” and won as part of the “Gosford Park” cast in 2001. Williams was nominated in 2005 for “Brokeback Mountain,” in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn,” and in 2016 for “Manchester by the Sea.” This is King’s first nomination. Multiple actresses from one project have been nominated in the past, and often, one of them wins. Arquette won the Emmy and the Globe, Collette won the Critics’ Choice Award, and Williams, in the lead race, won all three.

Who should win? The only performance I watched in its entirety was Collette’s, and I’d love to see her win.
Who will win? Though Arquette is strong, she’s competing with someone else from her project, so Williams should be a safe choice.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

My predictions: 3/5, missing King and Watson
Who’s missing? Merrit Wever (Unbelievable), Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great), Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable)

This category includes five women who were all nominated for Golden Globes this past Monday, although it’s somewhat unusual that three of them were in the supporting race. I’m disappointed that there wasn’t room for Wever, less surprised about Dever, and very happy for Toni Collette (Unbelievable). It’s interesting that Mirren didn’t make the cut, making room for Joey King (The Act), a great choice, who joins her more established costar Patricia Arquette (The Act). I don’t think I got to Emily Watson (Chernobyl) since I only watched the first episode of her limited series, and no one is surprised about the inclusion of Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon).

Who will win? I think Williams eclipses Arquette.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams (Sharp Objects), Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora), Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects), Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace), Emma Stone (Maniac)

I don’t have much to offer here aside from having sampled the first episodes of most of these projects, and my predictions won’t differ all that much from my notions for the Golden Globes, save of course for the combination of lead and supporting players which contributed to a mixed list last year. Among the top contenders for this category are Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon), Patricia Arquette (The Act), Joey King (The Act), Emily Watson (Chernobyl), Niecy Nash (When They See Us), and Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great). I hope that there’s room for Merritt Wever (Unbelievable), Toni Collette (Unbelievable), Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable), and Kathryn Hahn (Mrs. Fletcher), but I’m not so sure. I feel like Kerry Washington (American Son) or Emma Thompson (Years and Years) could also grab a slot.

Patricia Arquette (The Act)
Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great)
Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)
Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Amy Adams’ disturbed reporter (Sharp Objects), Patricia Arquette’s duplicitous prison employee (Escape at Dannemora), Patricia Clarkson’s domineering mother (Sharp Objects), Penelope Cruz’s fashion designer (The Assassination of Gianni Versace), and Emma Stone’s troubled test subject (Maniac).

For your information: Both Adams and Stone are also nominated this year in the film supporting actress race. Adams has four previous solo film nominations, for “Junebug,” “Doubt,” “The Fighter,” and “Arrival,” plus ensemble bids for the middle two and a win for “American Hustle” in 2013. Stone won for her individual role in “La La Land” in 2016, also with ensemble wins for “The Help” in 2011 and “Birdman” in 2014, along with a solo nomination for the latter. Arquette won in 2014 for her supporting role in “Boyhood,” along with an ensemble nomination for that film and one season of “Boardwalk Empire,” plus three individual bids for the TV series “Medium.” Clarkson was nominated for two different films in 2003, “Pieces of April” and “The Station Agent,” and has picked up ensemble bids for the latter of those two, “The Green Mile,” and “Good Night, and Good Luck.” Cruz was nominated in 2006 for “Volver” and in 2008 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” with an ensemble bid in 2009 for “Nine.” The first season of Cruz’s anthology series earned three acting bids and one win in 2016. Double nominees are actually quite common in this category, including two years (2003 and 2017) with only two projects total recognized, and someone occasionally wins, in all cases a leading actress rather than a supporting one. Clarkson beat Cruz, an Emmy nominee this past year, for the Globe and Critics’ Choice Award, while Arquette beat Adams at the Globes and they tied for the Critics’ Choice Award.

Who should win? I watched only the first episode of all of these except for Stone’s project, and I don’t have a particular favorite.

Who will win? I’ll pick double nominee and probable double winner Adams.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

My predictions: 3/5, missing Clarkson and Cruz
Who’s missing? Regina King (Seven Seconds), Connie Britton (Dirty John), Emma Thompson (King Lear)

The nominees here aren’t surprising at all, though I wasn’t confident about both Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects) and Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace) making the jump up from the supporting race to this catch-all one. I’m happy that Emma Stone (Maniac) got in for a miniseries that I’ve found to be moderately worthwhile after missing out at the Golden Globes and with costar Jonah Hill still snubbed here. With King left off, Stone joins Amy Adams (Sharp Objects) as a double nominee in this race and the film supporting actress one. Rounding out the list is Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora), making the cut even without any other support for her limited series.

Who will win? I’ve only sampled these performances, but I think that Adams is far enough out ahead.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco), Queen Latifah (Bessie), Christina Ricci (The Lizzie Borden Chronicles), Susan Sarandon (The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe), and Kristen Wiig (The Spoils Before Dying).

For your information: Latifah won this award in 2007 for “Life Support” and was previously nominated for “Chicago.” This is Sarandon’s fifth career nomination. She won in 1995 for “Dead Man Walking.” This is Kidman’s fifth career nomination, and the first nomination for both Ricci and Wiig.

Who should win: I’ve seen a grand total of none of these performances.

Who will win: Usually, there’s a frontrunner, though this category also usually matches up more than 1/5 with the Golden Globe lineup. Given that, I’ll go with the one that’s in both places, Latifah.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

My predictions: 2/5, picking only Kidman and Latifah
Who’s missing: Claire Foy (Wolf Hall), Saoirse Ronan (Stockholm, Pennsylvania), Winona Ryder (Show Me a Hero)

Because categories are announced alphabetically, I thought that I had done better here than in the corresponding male race, but it was only the first two nominees, Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco) and Queen Latifah (Bessie). After that, it was actresses I know well from projects I’ve never heard of, at least not in an awards context: Christina Ricci (The Lizzie Borden Chronicles), Susan Sarandon (The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe), and Kristen Wiig (The Spoils Before Dying). No comments as I’ve seen none of these nominees.

Who could win? Probably Latifah but I just don’t know here.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Last year’s nominees: Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honourable Woman), Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge), Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart), Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)

The rundown: With all shows that end up being classified as miniseries by other awards groups not contending here, there’s plenty of room for those actually starring in miniseries and TV movies. I’ve seen a grand total of none of these, but it seems like at the head of the pack we have Queen Latifah (Bessie), MoNique (Bessie), Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco), Winona Ryder (Show Me a Hero), Catherine Keener (Show Me a Hero), and Claire Foy (Wolf Hall). I’m also betting that Saoirse Ronan (Stockholm, Pennsylvania), whose future Lifetime movie I saw at Sundance this past year, will probably show up.

Current predictions: Foy, Kidman, Latifah, Ronan, Ryder

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

The competition: Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honourable Woman), Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge), Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart), Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)

For your information: Tyson has been nominated for three TV Sag Awards before, and Burstyn was nominated once before in this race and once for her film work. McDormand has been nominated three times for films and won once. Roberts has been nominated twice before for film work and won once. Gyllenhaal is a first-time nominee. Roberts and Tyson contended for Emmys and lost to actresses not nominated here, and Gyllenhaal triumphed over McDormand at the Golden Globes.

Who should win: All I’ve seen is one hour of Gyllenhaal’s mini-series.

Who will win: Let’s give this one to McDormand or Tyson.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

My predictions: 4/5, missing Burstyn
Who’s missing? Allison Tolman (Fargo)

It’s sad to see that deserving young actresses like Tolman are often ignored in favor of more established veteran actresses like Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic). That said, I haven’t seen her performance, but it’s a shame to see Tolman passed over. Joining Burstyn are Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honourable Woman), Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge), Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart), and Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful). Since I watched just the first hour of Gyllenhaal’s miniseries, my investment in this category is considerably diminished, but maybe I’ll have the chance to watch more before the ceremony at the end of January.

Who could win? I think McDormand will beat Roberts and Tyson.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

Last year’s nominees: Angela Bassett (Betty and Coretta), Helena Bonham Carter (Burton and Taylor), Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake), Holly Hunter (Top of the Lake), Helen Mirren (Phil Spector)

The rundown: Unlike the corresponding male race, I think that this category will look completely different from this summer’s Emmy race. Jessica Lange and Sarah Paulson will be contending in the drama race, and I don’t think Minnie Driver (Return to Zero) or Kristen Wiig (The Spoils of Babylon) will score here. Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful), on the other hand, is likely to appear here, as are Emmy supporting contenders Allison Tolman (Fargo) and Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart). The frontrunners to join them are Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honourable Woman).

Current predictions: Gyllenhaal, McDormand, Roberts, Tolman, Tyson