SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Brian Cox (Succession), Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), Kieran Culkin (Succession), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Jeremy Strong (Succession)

For your information: The only returning nominee is Crudup, who was nominated for his show’s first season alongside costar Steve Carell. Cox was nominated in 2000 for his role in “Nuremberg.” This is the first individual nomination for everyone else, though Culkin was previously nominated for being part of the ensemble from “The Cider House Rules” and Strong won that prize last year as part of the cast from “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” At the Emmys, Crudup won for season one of his show and Strong beat Cox for season two of their series. This category has seen two nominees from a single show before but never three. Jung-jae is the first actor from a non-English show to be nominated in this category. All three represented series also have their ensembles nominated.

Who should win? It’s a good list, even if I wish more shows were represented. I would probably choose Culkin.

Who will win? While Jung-jae could benefit from a vote split, I think Strong continues his awards run.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Josh O’Connor (The Crown), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton)

Only one of last year’s nominees is eligible, and that’s Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), who is hoping for his sixth consecutive nomination. It’s also important this year to look back at past nominees who are once again eligible, like Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), who seems like a sure thing, and Steve Carell (The Morning Show), who might be replaced by his Emmy- and Golden Globe-nominated costar Mark Duplass (The Morning Show) but could still show up even with such a reduced role in season two. There’s also Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale), cited for the show’s second season back in 2018 and who could return for season four now. It’s entirely possible that five men from one of TV’s most popular show could populate this list even though none have before. In order of possibility, expect to see Jeremy Strong (Succession), Brian Cox (Succession), Matthew Macfadyen (Succession), Kieran Culkin (Succession), and Nicolas Braun (Succession). This could also be the first nomination for Emmy winner Billy Porter (Pose), for the third season of his show. The Golden Globes selected Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), O Yeong-su (Squid Game), and Omar Sy (Lupin), who would represent a breakthrough here as foreign-language nominees but seem possible. I’d love to see Tom Hiddleston (Loki) show up, and Michael C. Hall (Dexter: New Blood) could return for a role that previously earned him six nominations and one win.

Current predictions:
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Brian Cox (Succession)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Billy Porter (Pose)
Jeremy Strong (Succession)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Jason Bateman’s protective patriarch (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown’s loyal father and brother (This Is Us), Josh O’Connor’s Prince Charles (The Crown), Bob Odenkirk’s inventive lawyer (Better Call Saul), and Regé-Jean Page’s bachelor duke (Bridgerton).

For your information: The only returning nominee from last year is Brown, who won three years ago and also previously contended for “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Bateman and Odenkirk are both back after their shows took a year off the air. Bateman won the last time he was nominated, his second bid for this show, and was also nominated twice before for “Arrested Development.” Odenkirk has three previous nominations, and won as part of the “Breaking Bad” ensemble. O’Connor, who won last year as part of his ensemble, earns his first solo nomination. This is Page’s first nomination. All but Brown contend as part of their ensembles, though Brown’s show has actually won the ensemble prize twice in the past (he also won as part of the “Black Panther” ensemble in 2018). From 2010 to 2015, this category saw three back-to-back winners. O’Connor won the Golden Globe, defeating Bateman and Odenkirk.

Who should win? I only watched the first episode of “Bridgerton,” and I can’t say that I remember any of the characters or players. This is a fine list otherwise, and I think I’d choose Odenkirk over the rest.

Who will win? It could easily be Bateman or Brown again, or O’Connor, but I’m going to bet on Odenkirk to finally win for the season that somehow didn’t manage to earn him an Emmy nomination.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Steve Carell (The Morning Show), Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), David Harbour (Stranger Things)

Dinklage’s show is over, and Carell, Crudup, and Harbour won’t contend again until their shows return. But count back in Jason Bateman (Ozark) and Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), whose series took 2019 off. It’s distinctly possible that Tom Pelphrey (Ozark) will join his costar just as Laura Linney and Julia Garner were both nominated together in 2018. I had expected Tobias Menzies (The Crown) to be nominated last year, and his more prominently featured costar Josh O’Connor (The Crown) may have a shot this year. New contenders like Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason) and Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country) shouldn’t be counted out, but SAG doesn’t always shower brand-new series with love. Is there someone else like John Krasinski from two years ago waiting to surprise with a completely unexpected nomination?

Current predictions:
Jason Bateman (Ozark)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Josh O’Connor (The Crown)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Sterling K. Brown’s loyal father and brother (This Is Us), Steve Carell’s disgraced broadcaster (The Morning Show), Billy Crudup’s creative executive (The Morning Show), Peter Dinklage’s intellectual advisor (Game of Thrones), and David Harbour’s high-strung cop (Stranger Things).

For your information: This category doesn’t include the most recent Emmy winner, Billy Porter, the most recent Golden Globe winner, Brian Cox, the most recent Critics’ Choice Award winner, Jeremy Strong, or last year’s SAG winner, Jason Bateman – though he’s the only one who wasn’t eligible. It does feature three past nominees from this field. Brown was nominated last year, won the year before, and was also a contender three years ago for his role in “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Both Dinklage and Harbour were nominated two years ago when their shows were last eligible. Four-time Emmy winner Dinklage contended five years in a row for this role, was previously nominated for his film performance in “The Station Agent” in 2003, and won as part of the “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” ensemble cast in 2017. Harbour’s first and only solo bid was in 2017, when he also won as part of the show’s ensemble. Carell contended six times for “The Office,” won twice as part of that ensemble, was nominated for film performances in “Foxcatcher” in 2014 and “Battle of the Sexes” in 2017, and won as part of the “Little Miss Sunshine” ensemble in 2006. Crudup was previously nominated as a member of the “Almost Famous” cast in 2000 and won as part of the “Spotlight” ensemble in 2015. He won a Critics’ Choice Award for this role. This is the first time that four out of five nominees are supporting players on their shows. Only one supporting actor has ever won this award, and that was John Lithgow in 2016 for “The Crown.” From 2010 to 2015, this category saw three back-to-back winners. Two nominees from one show is very common, though only twice in the early years of the SAG Awards has one of them won. Only Dinklage and Harbour are nominated this year as part of their ensembles.

Who should win? I watch all of these! I like these choices a lot. Brown is just as good as he’s ever been. Both Carell and Harbour are great. Dinklage is fantastic as always. My choice would actually be Crudup, who’s such a formidable part of his show.

Who will win? This could go to Brown again, but I think Dinklage gets rewarded for years of standout work.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 3/5, missing Carell and Crudup
Who’s missing? Billy Porter (Pose), Tobias Menzies (The Crown), Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale), John Krasinski (Jack Ryan), Brian Cox (Succession), Kieran Culkin (Succession)

This category offered two major surprises in the form of Steve Carell (The Morning Show) and Billy Crudup (The Morning Show). I’m particularly excited about the latter since I think he’s one of the best parts of the show and didn’t expect him to be recognized by SAG. It’s also very interesting since those two join two other returning supporting stars, Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) and David Harbour (Stranger Things). The only lead here is Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us). Not only is this list 80% supporting players, but not a single one of these men were nominated for Golden Globes this past morning. I’m all for honoring a wide range of people, and I think these are all superb picks (though I’m only a few episodes into Harbour’s work). It's still strange to see Emmy winner Porter omitted.

Who will win? I see this going to Dinklage.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale), John Kransinski (Jack Ryan), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

Count out Odenkirk and Bateman, whose shows didn’t air this year, but look out for two nominees from two years ago, Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) and David Harbour (Stranger Things) to likely stage returns. Unlike the Golden Globes, SAG likes to stick with what it knows. Two-time winner Past winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) will surely back, while Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) is less of a sure thing, and John Krasinski (Jack Ryan) isn’t likely to repeat his surprise nomination. Look out for Emmy winner Billy Porter (Pose) to join the ranks here, along with Brian Cox (Succession) or either of his costars, Kieran Culkin (Succession) and Jeremy Strong (Succession). The other likely new addition is Tobias Menzies (The Crown).

Current predictions:
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
Billy Porter (Pose)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Jason Bateman’s protective patriarch (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown’s loyal father and brother (This Is Us), Joseph Fiennes’ domineering commander (The Handmaid's Tale), John Krasinski’s secret agent (Jack Ryan), and Bob Odenkirk’s inventive lawyer (Better Call Saul).

For your information: Brown won last year and was nominated the year before for his role in “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Bateman contended last year and was previously nominated in 2004 and 2013 for his role on “Arrested Development.” This is Odenkirk’s third nomination, and he previously won as part of the “Breaking Bad” ensemble. Fiennes was nominated in 1998 for his film performance in “Shakespeare in Love” and contended last year as part of his ensemble. This is the first solo nomination for Krasinski, who won twice as part of the ensemble from “The Office.” All but Krasinski are also nominated as part of their ensembles, and Brown has a second ensemble bid for his work in the film “Black Panther.” From 2010 to 2015, this category saw three back-to-back winners.

Who should win? I haven’t seen any of Bateman’s work this season, and only saw the pilot of Krasinski’s show. Brown and Odenkirk are always great, and Fiennes had a particularly strong plotline this year, so I’m fine with any of those three.

Who will win? I think Brown repeats history and wins again.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 4/5, missing Fiennes and Krasinski
Who’s missing? Matthew Rhys (The Americans), Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)

I’m kicking myself because I swapped in Ventimiglia for Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) when I was finalizing my predictions, though I am surprised that he made the cut as the only player recognized alongside Elisabeth Moss rather than Yvonne Strahovski. His performance is excellent, however, and I’m glad he’s here. I’m more puzzled by John Krasinski (Jack Ryan), who missed out on a likelier Golden Globe nomination and then ended up here for the first season of his show. His film “A Quiet Place” also netted a bid for his wife Emily Blunt, who picked up two film nominations. It’s a great day for the family! Despite his Globe snub, last year’s winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) is here as the lone individual representative of his show, along with Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), whose show finally broke into the ensemble category. The real winner today is Jason Bateman (Ozark), whose show got a remarkable four bids, trumping every other drama series. Rhys will have to settle for an ensemble nomination for his cast, something I don’t entirely hate.

Who will win? I think Brown repeats, though maybe it could be Odenkirk or Bateman?

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Jason Bateman (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), David Harbour (Stranger Things), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

Dinklage and Harbour aren’t eligible this year since their shows didn’t air in 2018. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), last year’s winner, is still hot, though missing out on a Golden Globe bid, along with Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), might make them vulnerable, though SAG tends to keep shows and actors around much longer than that organization. Jason Bateman (Ozark) did repeat at the Globes, joined by newcomers Stephan James (Homecoming), Richard Madden (Bodyguard), and Billy Porter (Pose). He won an Emmy and just received his first Golden Globe bid, so maybe it’s time Matthew Rhys (The Americans) earns a SAG nomination for the final season of his show. Supporting Emmy nominee Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) could also be an addition to this lineup, as could lead acting nominees Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), Jeffrey Wright (Westworld), or Ed Harris (Westworld).

Current predictions:
Jason Bateman (Ozark)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Jason Bateman’s protective patriarch (Ozark), Sterling K. Brown’s loyal father and brother (This Is Us), Peter Dinklage’s talkative advisor (Game of Thrones), David Harbour’s determined sheriff (Stranger Things), and Bob Odenkirk’s inventive lawyer (Better Call Saul).

For your information: Bateman was previously nominated in 2004 and 2013 for his role on “Arrested Development.” Brown was nominated last year for his role in “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” This is Dinklage’s fifth consecutive nomination, and he was also previously nominated for the film “The Station Agent.” This is Odenkirk’s second nomination, though he wasn’t nominated last year, and he previously won as part of the “Breaking Bad” ensemble. Brown, Dinklage, and Harbour all contend as part of their ensembles this year (Harbour’s won last year), and Dinklage is also nominated as part of the film ensemble of “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Last year’s winner was John Lithgow, who wasn’t eligible this year.

Who should win? I didn’t get past episode one of Bateman’s show. I’m a big fan of Dinklage’s though I’d be fine with any of the others too.

Who will win? I think Brown is far enough ahead of the pack to win this easily.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 3/5, picking Malek and Schreiber over Bateman and Harbour
Who’s missing? Rami Malek, Kevin Spacey, Liev Schreiber, Freddie Highmore

I guess I should have paid more attention to the Golden Globe nominees and seen that Jason Bateman (Ozark), whose show I stopped watching after what I found to be a poor pilot, and David Harbour (Stranger Things) should be taken more seriously. I can’t understand why anyone watching “Mr. Robot” wouldn’t nominate Rami Malek again since he’s so excellent, and I would have thought that SAG would have thought better than to dump him after two seasons, especially when they didn’t nominate Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) last year after including him the year before. He’s terrific too, but I would have taken Malek over him. I’m not going to argue with Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) since I know he’s beloved, and Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) is also a great choice as always, still doing superb work on his seven years in.

Who will win? With any past competition out of the way, this seems like a clear path to victory for Brown.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Sterling K. Brown’s driven son (This Is Us), Peter Dinklage’s talkative heir (Game of Thrones), John Lithgow’s Winston Churchill (The Crown), Rami Malek’s antisocial hacker (Mr. Robot), and Kevin Spacey’s corrupt politician (House of Cards).

For your information: This is Spacey’s fourth consecutive nomination, and he has won the past two years. This is also the fourth consecutive nomination for Dinklage. Malek was nominated last year, and Brown is a double nominee this year, also recognized for his performance in “The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Lithgow has been nominated three times before, winning twice for “3rd Rock from the Sun.” Dinklage and Lithgow are both also contending as part of the ensembles for their shows.

Who should win: I haven’t seen Lithgow’s performance. I’d vote for Dinklage or Malek.

Who will win: Given the way this category usually goes – to returning nominees – I’d bet on Dinklage to win this year.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 3/5, picking Odenkirk and Schreiber over Brown and Lithgow
Who’s missing: Kit Harington (Game of Thrones), Matthew Rhys (The Americans), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan), Kiefer Sutherland (Designated Survivor), Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath)

I was truly shocked when I heard the first nominee announced: Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), also nominated for his Emmy-winning role in “The People vs. OJ Simpson.” On Monday, Globe voters chose two of Brown’s female costars and the show itself, and I expected it to place in ensemble and maybe in actress too, but instead it’s just the Randall show today. I don’t love the show, but he is pretty good. I’m very sad to see Odenkirk snubbed since that show continues to be excellent, and instead we get an actor from a show I don’t watch but apparently should, John Lithgow (The Crown). I’m glad that Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) didn’t get snubbed, and Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) is a welcome inclusion as always. And then, in stark contrast to the Globes’ total shutout, Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) is back with his onscreen wife in tow.

Who could win? I think it will be Spacey again considering that he’s won the past two years.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards).

The rundown: Last year, I scored 5/5 in this category, and I hope to do the same this year. Hamm is out of the running since his show is over, and I think that the other four are likely to return. All of their shows are just as good as they ever were, and SAG voters tend to stick with series and performers well into their runs. Who could join them? An Emmy nominee like Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) or Matthew Rhys (The Americans) isn’t too likely, and SAG voters probably won’t vote for Globe-nominated newbies like Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath). They might go for Kiefer Sutherland (Designated Survivor), but his Globe snub doesn’t bode well. My bet for the fifth slot is an actor who has been nominated repeatedly for Emmys and Golden Globes that should have no problem finding a fan base here: Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan).

Current predictions: Dinklage, Malek, Odenkirk, Schreiber, Spacey

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Peter Dinklage’s talkative heir (Game of Thrones), Jon Hamm’s ad man (Mad Men), Rami Malek’s antisocial hacker (Mr. Robot), Bob Odenkirk’s wannabe lawyer (Better Call Saul), and Kevin Spacey’s corrupt politician (House of Cards).

For your information: This is Spacey’s third consecutive nomination, and he won last year. This is also the third consecutive nomination for Dinklage. This is the sixth overall nomination for Hamm, who was last nominated in 2012 and then previously in 2010. Malek and Odenkirk are first-time individual nominees for their freshman shows. Dinklage, Hamm, and Spacey are also nominated as part of their ensembles.

Who should win: All excellent choices. I’d probably give it to Malek.

Who will win: Sorry, Rami. Hamm has never won, and there’s no way that this organization, which loves rewarding actors for their swan songs, won’t give him a trophy.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing: No one notable! Both eligible nominees from last year are back!

This is a great way to start off the TV nominees, with a perfect category! It’s good to see Jon Hamm (Mad Men) back for the final season of his show, joining returning nominees Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards). New to the list are two fantastic freshman additions I wholeheartedly support: Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) and Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), an especially cool choice. This is a solid category to be sure.

Who could win? I think Hamm will probably score his first-ever SAG Award.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

Last year’s nominees: Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Woody Harrelson (True Detective), Matthew McConaughey (True Detective), and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards).

The rundown: This category is going to look very different this year, with Buscemi, Harrelson, and McConaughey all out of the running. Given the love for “Breaking Bad,” I expect that Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) will definitely be included. Since Aaron Paul never got nominated, I wouldn’t bet too strongly on Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul). The only other actor previously nominated whose show is still on TV is Jon Hamm (Mad Men), who might brave a return for the final season for the show. Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) could fare well here, as could Terrence Howard (Empire), Timothy Hutton (American Crime), and Patrick Wilson (Fargo), whose shows are classified here by SAG.

Current predictions: Dinklage, Hamm, Malek, Odenkirk, Spacey

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Steve Buscemi’s Atlantic City gangster (Boardwalk Empire), Peter Dinklage’s talkative heir (Game of Thrones), Woody Harrelson’s carefree cop (True Detective), Matthew McConaughey’s harrowed cop (True Detective), and Kevin Spacey’s corrupt politician (House of Cards).

For your information: This is Buscemi’s fifth consecutive nomination. He won for the first and second seasons of the show. Dinklage and Spacey are both back after being nominated last year. Harrelson and McConaughey are new to the race, each earning their second career nominations. Harrelson was nominated in 2012 for TV movie “Game Change,” and McConaughey won last year for the film “Dallas Buyers Club.” Buscemi, Dinklage, and Spacey are also nominated as part of their ensemble casts.

Who should win: All great choices – I’d probably give it to Dinklage or Spacey.

Who will win: Without Bryan Cranston or “Fargo” in the way, it’s McConaughey vs. Golden Globe winner Spacey. I’ll give the edge tentatively to the former.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing: Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), Clive Owen (The Knick)

I’d be a whole lot prouder of myself if this had been the first category announced. Pretty much only here and in the Best Drama Series race did my theories hold (to both positive and negative effect elsewhere). Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), who has been abandoned by Emmy and Golden Globe voters, still earned himself a nomination here for the fifth and final time. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) are returning nominees, and Woody Harrelson (True Detective) and Matthew McConaughey (True Detective) are representing their show, which missed out on a Best Ensemble bid. This is a solid list, and all actors are worthy of nominations even if some important people did miss out.

Who could win? Here, I think McConaughey could manage it, but Spacey might swoop in for the win.