SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The competition: Sterling K. Brown’s loyal father and brother (This Is Us), Steve Carell’s disgraced broadcaster (The Morning Show), Billy Crudup’s creative executive (The Morning Show), Peter Dinklage’s intellectual advisor (Game of Thrones), and David Harbour’s high-strung cop (Stranger Things).

For your information: This category doesn’t include the most recent Emmy winner, Billy Porter, the most recent Golden Globe winner, Brian Cox, the most recent Critics’ Choice Award winner, Jeremy Strong, or last year’s SAG winner, Jason Bateman – though he’s the only one who wasn’t eligible. It does feature three past nominees from this field. Brown was nominated last year, won the year before, and was also a contender three years ago for his role in “American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson.” Both Dinklage and Harbour were nominated two years ago when their shows were last eligible. Four-time Emmy winner Dinklage contended five years in a row for this role, was previously nominated for his film performance in “The Station Agent” in 2003, and won as part of the “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” ensemble cast in 2017. Harbour’s first and only solo bid was in 2017, when he also won as part of the show’s ensemble. Carell contended six times for “The Office,” won twice as part of that ensemble, was nominated for film performances in “Foxcatcher” in 2014 and “Battle of the Sexes” in 2017, and won as part of the “Little Miss Sunshine” ensemble in 2006. Crudup was previously nominated as a member of the “Almost Famous” cast in 2000 and won as part of the “Spotlight” ensemble in 2015. He won a Critics’ Choice Award for this role. This is the first time that four out of five nominees are supporting players on their shows. Only one supporting actor has ever won this award, and that was John Lithgow in 2016 for “The Crown.” From 2010 to 2015, this category saw three back-to-back winners. Two nominees from one show is very common, though only twice in the early years of the SAG Awards has one of them won. Only Dinklage and Harbour are nominated this year as part of their ensembles.

Who should win? I watch all of these! I like these choices a lot. Brown is just as good as he’s ever been. Both Carell and Harbour are great. Dinklage is fantastic as always. My choice would actually be Crudup, who’s such a formidable part of his show.

Who will win? This could go to Brown again, but I think Dinklage gets rewarded for years of standout work.