Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
BILL PAXTON, BIG LOVE
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
PATRICK DEMPSEY, GREY’S ANATOMY
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE (winner)
KIEFER SUTHERLAND, 24

This year’s top contenders:
BILL PAXTON, BIG LOVE
The lone male star of HBO’s new token drama got a nod last year from the Globes. The show took a hiatus and the buzz is nowhere near that of past HBO shows, so Paxton may fade quickly from memory.

JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL
Spader, having now won three Emmy awards for his glorified portrayal of questionable attorney Alan Shore, got only one nomination from the Globes after his first Emmy win for “Boston Legal”. He could easily come back, just because “Boston Legal” is so unpredictable as to where and when it will show up. They will probably try to get it nominated in the mini-series category just to be annoying.

JIMMY SMITS, CANE
The popular actor’s new show sucks, and he does not do much to save it. But he is an awards favorite and should never be outright discounted. His chances also ride on whether his show makes it to nomination time. Freshmen shows that have already been axed do not usually get recognized.

MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
This show has only gotten more popular since its premiere last October, and Hall has earned raves for his performance. An Emmy snub should hardly stand in the way of his garnering a second nomination and possibly even a win.

PETER KRAUSE, DIRTY SEXY MONEY
The actor was nominated in this category before for his performance on the show “Six Feet Under”. Former co-star Hall, who was never nominated for “Six Feet Under”, was nominated last year for his new show, but Hall’s role is also admittedly juicier than Krause’s. Krause is the straight man on a show with a whole host of crazy people, but the Golden Globes often favor that actor for a nomination.

PATRICK DEMPSEY, GREY’S ANATOMY
Honestly, who cares anymore? Dempsey is fine on this show, but does he really deserve a spot among this crowd? The show has taken a critical dive, and the Globes never look to previous years to consider who they should nominate.

HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
Dr. House is arguably the most popular character on TV right now. Laurie has still not won an Emmy, but he has one two Golden Globes in a row on a show that basically depends on his performance, which as far as I know has not changed, even if the entire supporting cast of the show has been shuffled around.

JON HAMM, MAD MEN
Talk about buzz with this one! AMC promoted it as the best thing since sliced bread… or maybe just “The Sopranos”. Regardless, it was a hit and got quickly renewed for a second season. Hamm is pretty good on the show, but it still remains to be seen how well AMC will do with awards guilds.

EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES
If anyone loves FX, it is the Golden Globes. “The Shield”, “Nip/Tuck”, and “Rescue Me” have all done spectacularly, at least in their first years. Only Minnie Driver got an Emmy nomination, but if anyone actually watched the show, it is likely they will check off Izzard’s name.

JAMES GANDOLFINI, THE SOPRANOS
It seems like “The Sopranos” was so long ago. The Golden Globes are not always kind to shows which depart early on in the year, because honestly, they are hardly front and center in anyone’s mind. Those who do remember the show probably have the bitter taste of the controversial ending in their mouths. In any case, Gandolfini has not actually been nominated since 2002.

Anyone else? The Golden Globes are rarely kind to actors they once nominated. FX stars Michael Chiklis and Denis Leary both received nominations for the first years of their shows (and in Chiklis’ case, a win plus two more nominations). Leary continues to get nominated for Emmy awards. I think the ship has sailed for each of them, at least here, but “The Shield” did have a massive critical surge this year. Kiefer Sutherland is also a candidate, but he barely managed an Emmy nomination (his show only got one other major nod) and his show has plummeted in quality. Matthew Fox had a great year on “Lost” but it is impossible to predict if the show will even make it in. Jonathan Rhys-Meyers has a shot, but I do not think “The Tudors” will make much of an awards showing. And if “Pushing Daisies” goes the drama route, everything changes and Lee Pace is probably in by default.

Current predictions:
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
PETER KRAUSE, DIRTY SEXY MONEY
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
JON HAMM, MAD MEN
EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES

Next: Best Actress in a TV Series - Drama.