Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that last year’s nominees mean zilch at the Globes and that the race is almost entirely unpredictable.

Last year’s nominees:
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
JASON LEE, MY NAME IS EARL
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
ZACH BRAFF, SCRUBS
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK (winner)

This year’s top contenders:
KELSEY GRAMMER, BACK TO YOU
This show is dismally awful, and Grammer overplays his role as much as he can. He is a respected comedian who won numerous awards for “Cheers” and “Frasier”, so that may overcome the poor quality of the show (which has gotten better reviews than I give it credit for). FOX comedies to not have a good track record with the Globes, with three major exceptions, and all three shows were far more critically adored than this one (“Arrested Development”, “Malcolm in the Middle”, and “Ally McBeal”).

DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
The man is simply great on the new Showtime comedy, and he was nominated years ago for his lead performance on “The X-Files”. It is all a question of how much the Globes will be willing to embrace another Showtime series. They went wild for “Weeds” and were semi-enthusiastic about “Sleeper Cell”, “Huff”, and “Dexter”, but completely snubbed “The L Word” and “Brotherhood”.

LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
David was nominated two years ago in this category, the last time his show aired during a Globes eligibility period. His character is so vile that it is a love-him, hate-him affair. His affiliation with “Seinfeld” and this series give him a certain respectability that may get him in if he is not overshadowed by more overtly difficult comedic performances.

TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
The only factor for Shalhoub’s inclusion is whether awards will ever tire of him. The show is pretty much at the same quality it always has been, and awards continue to be deservedly heaped upon him. There is nothing new about his performance, which may allow new entrants to seep in and replace him.

JASON LEE, MY NAME IS EARL
Despite a warm reception its freshman year, “My Name is Earl” received less accolades at both the Emmy Awards and the Globes during its second season. Lee did get a nomination last year, and his nomination really rides on how much they like NBC (last year, four out of the five nominees came from NBC’s Thursday night comedy lineup, one lead from each show). “Earl” does have the stalest buzz of the four, however.

STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
To many, “The Office” is only getting better. Carrell won this award two years ago but lost out to newcomer Alec Baldwin last year. I feel pretty safe saying that Carrell should be able to slide in without much trouble.

JAMES RODAY, PSYCH
“Psych” received no major award nominations for its first year, but Roday really does go crazy with his performance. I think the influx of new shows and those darn NBC series will keep Roday out for the time being.

LEE PACE, PUSHING DAISIES
Pace is the lead of the daring and colorful new dramedy “Pushing Daisies”. I personally do not think he is the strongest element on the show and sort of goes along for the ride instead of carrying the show himself. The Globes do like to honor the stars of shows they like even if the stars are unlikely to amass awards anywhere else (Wentworth Miller for “Prison Break”, for instance).

ZACH BRAFF, SCRUBS
“Scrubs” enters its final season this fall, which is a call to the Emmy Awards to recognize it, but not the Globes. Braff has been the lone Globe nominee for the series in its entire history, but he has been noticed for the past three years straight. He was goofier than ever this year, but “Scrubs” does have the advantage of having aired almost a complete season during early 2007 plus a quarter season from October to the nominations deadline..

ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
Baldwin is so unbeatably hilarious on this wildly popular series (critically, not so much in the ratings). As far as I know, reviews for the show continue to be overwhelmingly positive, so I see absolutely no reason that Baldwin’s name would be omitted from the list of nominees.

Anyone else? Hot new shows “Reaper” and “Chuck” both have charismatic leads in Bret Harrison and Zachary Levi, respectively, but I doubt either those will enter in to the awards field (“Reaper” also has the disadvantage of airing on the CW, which rarely receives mentions). Tracy Morgan might be considered lead on “30 Rock”, but his performance as compared to Baldwin is nothing. Charlie Sheen was here twice a few years ago, but his time may have passed. And I can only hope that either Jemaine Clement or Bret McKenzie makes it in for their wonderful performances on the quirky “Flight of the Conchords”.

Current predictions:
DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
LEE PACE, PUSHING DAISIES
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK