Early Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Contenders are listed in the order I think they’re likely to get nominated. The first ten represent my predictions for the top ten run-off, with the first five as my predictions for the eventual nominees.

I think this one is pretty locked up as far as the first seven contenders, but the final three are somewhat more up in the air. The final five will be made up of some combination of this group: Patricia Arquette, Glenn Close, Minnie Driver, Sally Field, Mariska Hargitay, Holly Hunter, and Kyra Sedgwick. Arquette is out (at least I hope) because her episode submission just isn’t good – even if people don’t think she’s bad on the show it’s not a good episode to submit. Hargitay chose decently, I suppose, with an episode where she goes undercover in prison and almost gets raped, but I don’t think she’s very good. She’s most vulnerable as someone on a procedural since her show doesn’t necessarily get any more inventive as time goes on. I have faith in Minnie Driver, even though others don’t – she got nominated last year with what was a rather poor submission in my opinion, and she has an amazing tape for this year. I think that Evangeline Lilly and Ellen Pompeo will make the top ten again this year though they’ll likely never be nominated, though it would be cool to see Lilly replace the likes of Sally Field in the top five. Spot number ten I’m going to go out on a limb and predict going to Mary McDonnell of “Battlestar Galactica”. Her episode tape is great, but this is a year of the powerhouse female film stars, and it’s going to be an interesting race.

Current predicted winner: Glenn Close