Early Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Contenders are listed in the order I think they’re likely to get nominated. The first ten represent my predictions for the top ten run-off, with the first five as my predictions for the eventual nominees.

Without question, this is the most competitive category of all. With a staggering 179 contenders, there are easily thirty or so actors who might be deserving of a nomination. Two shows in particular may dominate the top ten: “Lost” and “Boston Legal”. Michael Emerson should have no problem getting in, with a nomination last year and a stellar episode submission. Last year’s winner Terry O’Quinn wasn’t even his flashback episode this year (in the flashback scenes), and I think he’ll miss out last year. Naveen Andrews is another past nominee who has a terrific episode in which he’s really good, but I think he’ll miss the cut. There is also slight buzz for Jorge Garcia and Josh Holloway. I am fairly confident that Henry Ian Cusick will fill the last “Lost” slot due to his excellent submission of “The Constant” and his previous guest acting nomination. He didn’t get nominated last year with a good submission, so it’s always possible he’ll miss out. “Boston Legal” boasts William Shatner, who does have a good submission to ensure he won’t fall off the list, guest acting winner Christian Clemenson who’s been promoted to supporting, and John Laroquette, who won four Emmys in a row for “Night Court” in the 1980s. Last year’s nominees T.R. Knight and Masi Oka shouldn’t be back, but Knight stands a chance of returning if voters don’t want to embrace new shows. Ted Danson should get in for “Damages”, though many are unhappy with his episode submission choice. Co-star Zeljko Ivanek, despite his unfortunate accent, got some terrific buzz from fans of the show but isn’t well known enough to break into the top 10. Donald Sutherland should make the top ten for “Dirty Sexy Money” but the show has been off the air for a while and pretty much lost all its buzz. The final two major contenders are John Slattery and Blair Underwood, two actors who have been around for a while on many different shows, even this year, moonlighting on “Desperate Housewives” and “Dirty Sexy Money”, respectively, but have yet to find awards attention. Both chose excellent episodes and have a good shot at getting nominated if enough people have heard of their shows (for Underwood) and pay attention to the actors (for Slattery). This race should be full of surprises, I’m just hoping that the surprise won’t be that both Knight and Oka got in again, or that “Boston Legal” swept the field. Ugh.

Current predicted winner: Blair Underwood