Last year’s nominees:
Battlestar Galactica, “Six of One”
Damages, “Pilot”
Mad Men, “Pilot”
Mad Men, “The Wheel”
The Wire, “-30-”
The contenders:
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA, “Daybreak, Part 2” (Ronald D. Moore)
BSG has been nominated in this category for the past two years running, and now it has a decent shot with its series finale. Series creator Moore returned to direct the finale after directing the action-packed two-part episode that was nominated in 2007, “Occupation/Precipice.” Last year’s installment, “Six of One,” was hardly as intense or thrilling, and therefore the series finale should have a much easier time getting nominated. Some didn’t love the series’ conclusion, but even the controversial finale of “The Sopranos” got nominated, and won, in this category two years ago.
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA, “The Hub” (Jane Espenson)
This is exactly the kind of action-packed episode that got the show nominated the first time (like “Occupation/Precipice” and “Exodus”). The interesting thing is that it’s actually an episode from the previous season of BSG that aired in June after the Emmy deadline passed. It’s a terrific episode, featuring the return of Lucy Lawless to the series, and if voters choose to spread their love between different episodes of the sci-fi series, I think this is the likeliest one to get votes after the series finale.
BREAKING BAD, “Peekaboo” (Vince Gilligan)
This show had been building to a certain dramatic point this season with increasing intensity, and then this episode came along. The shocking toppling of an ATM on a guest star’s head signaled was immensely powerful and disturbing, and the rest of the season was infinitely more engaging after that. Series creator Gilligan was nominated for directing the show’s pilot last year, and may very well have a shot at breaking his (not bad) show into the writing category.
DAMAGES, “I Lied, Too” (Glenn Kessler, Todd Kessler, Daniel Zelman)
It’s difficult to predict how Emmy voters will receive the second season of FX’s Glenn Close-led legal thriller. This same team of writers was nominated last year for writing the pilot, and this year the stronger of the two episodes submitted by the series is the season premiere, when a new mystery and a new case are introduced. I don’t think the series will return to the writing or directing categories, but this is its best shot, if it has one.
LOST, “The Incident” (Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof)
Last year, “Lost” was welcome back into the Best Drama Series race but unceremoniously snubbed in this category for the episode “The Constant.” Cuse and Lindelof wrote that episode, as well as previously nominated installments “The 23rd Psalm” and “Through the Looking Glass.” This year, the show is once again popular with critics and the two-hour season finale could figure into a writing nomination. Clearly writers love the show, if an episode like “The 23rd Psalm” can get nominated. This episode bears much more similarity to “Through the Looking Glass,” and should garner a good number of excited votes.
MAD MEN, “Meditations in an Emergency” (Kater Gordon & Matthew Weiner)
The season finale of AMC’s incredibly well-reviewed series is pretty much a lock for a nomination in this category. Last year’s finale, “The Wheel” got nominated, and there aren’t really any other frontrunners in this category. This year’s season premiere was even submitted for consideration, so the finale is definitely the episode that should get voters excited about honoring one of their newfound favorite shows. The bigger question is which other “Mad Men” installment will accompany it here.
MAD MEN, “Six Month Leave” (Andre Jacquemetton, Maria Jacquemetton, Matthew Weiner)
It’s tough to decipher which “Mad Men” episode will join the finale for a nomination this year. I think this episode, which chronicles the downfall of Freddy Rumsen, has the best shot. Other possibilities include the intoxicating “The Jet Set,” the Pete-centric “Flight 1,” or “A Night to Remember.” “Six Month Leave” is most reminiscent in its execution and style of the best movie-like “Sopranos” episodes, and therefore I think it’s the most likely to get recognized here.
THE NO. 1 LADIES DETECTIVE AGENCY, “Pilot” (Richard Curtis & Anthony Minghella)
Historically, HBO’s unique new drama probably has a better chance of getting its pilot nominated in the directing category, as several series have missed out on corresponding writing nods after being nominated for directing for their pilots (Nip/Tuck, Big Love, Friday Night Lights, Heroes, Studio 60). However, there is another Oscar-nominated writer whose name is on the script. Richard Curtis (Love Actually, Four Weddings and a Funeral) worked with the late Anthony Minghella to pen the pilot for this series. I’m still not sure whether Emmy voters will embrace the series, and I think the directing field is where it will happen, if anywhere.
RESCUE ME, “Perspective” (Denis Leary & Peter Tolan)
FX’s firefighter drama has experienced a critical resurgence this year, and “Perspective” was one of the first episodes that really signaled its return to incredible quality. The haunting revisiting of 9/11 themes featuring Leary in command are amazingly well-done, and the show’s exploration of reactions to 9/11 conspiracy theories is also fascinating. The show may not get enough votes to re-enter the lineup, but this is certainly terrific work and it helps that the show only submitted one episode in this category, making it abundantly clear where supporters of the show should place their eggs.
THE SHIELD, “Family Meeting” (Shawn Ryan)
Like director Clark Johnson, Ryan earned his sole Emmy nomination in this category seven years ago for writing the show’s pilot. The creator of “The Shield” brought his show home with an emotional and devastating finale, and it’s likely that voters will want to recognize the show, especially since it’s amassed only six total nominations over its entire run. The show may fare better in the directing category, but I think it will place here as well.
Also be on the lookout for various episodes of “Dexter,” “In Treatment,” and “True Blood.”
The roundup:
I feel a bit strange not including “True Blood” in my top ten contenders, but the show’s pilot was submitted, and beyond the mind-blowing season finale (also not submitted), I can’t think of an episode that could muster enough individual support. I’m wondering if perhaps I’m being too optimistic thinking that “Battlestar Galactica” could manage two nominations in this category, but there’s always a chance. It will be interesting to see how many nominations “Mad Men” is able to get – “The Sopranos” received four writing nominations in one year.
Current predictions:
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA, “Daybreak, Part 2”
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA, “The Hub”
MAD MEN, “Meditations in an Emergency”
MAD MEN, “Six Month Leave”
THE SHIELD, “Family Meeting”
Next Up: Best Directing in a Comedy Series
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