Emmy Winners

Well, I’ve never done quite this poorly. Despite correctly predicting wins for miniseries, TV movies, reality and variety shows I’ve never seen, I managed to score an absolute zero on each and every one of the comedy and drama categories. I knew better than to bet against consecutive now seven-time winners “The Amazing Race” and “The Daily Show,” but for some reason thought it would be a good idea to predict upsets over frontrunners “Mad Men,” “30 Rock,” Bryan Cranston, Glenn Close, and Alec Baldwin. I also underestimated the chances of Toni Collette, Jon Cryer, Michael Emerson, and Kristin Chenoweth. I’ll admit that Cherry Jones was a bit of a surprise, as was the win by “ER” for directing. What I will point out is that my analysis was good, I just shouldn’t have picked a winner. I made the wrong choice in every case, but I wasn’t surprised by the majority of the winners. It’s not as if the winners were terribly exciting – only Emerson and Chenoweth served as truly nice surprises – and there was no big shocker, good or bad. Knowing that people I really like such as Steve Carrell and Kyra Sedgwick have now gone zero for four, and that even those I don’t love like Hugh Laurie and Chandra Wilson haven’t yet been rewarded, is a real shame. The support for shows like “Mad Men” and “30 Rock” is odd because the best elements aren’t recognized. “Reunion” won for writing, but then Tina Fey, who’s pretty much behind the whole show, didn’t. Also, it’s preposterous that “24” is winning Emmys for supporting acting now after years of snubbing Dennis Haysbert, Xander Berkeley, and newly-crowned Emmy winner Shohreh Aghdashloo. The ceremony itself was a lot of fun, and dividing the show into different categories worked well. I particularly liked NPH's opening number and the Dr. Horrible segment. There’s not much to write home about regarding this year’s winner lineup. I predicted a mere 11/31 of the major categories, with the previously-announced guest categories (I got 3/4) bolstering my average a bit. The moral of the story is, don’t predict too many upsets or even mildly exciting wins. It just isn’t necessarily going to happen.

What do you think of the winners? How did you do on your predictions?

Final Emmy Predictions

The Emmy Awards air this Sunday night on CBS. Due to the unfortunate timing of the awards ceremony (only hours after Rosh Hashanah ends), I may not actually get to watch it live, but that doesn’t mean I’m any less excited about predicting the winners. I still do plan to post my reactions to the show, which I’ll be taping and watching as soon as I’m able to later on Sunday night. This year could easily be a boring rehash of last year’s winners – “Mad Men,” “30 Rock,” Bryan Cranston, Glenn Close, Alec Baldwin, Tina Fey, and Dianne Wiest – though that’s not to say that they’re not all (or mostly) deserving of repeat victories. Still, I’d posit that at least a few surprises are in store. I worry I may be underestimating the chances of one enormously popular newcomer – Jim Parsons – and possibly overestimating the overdue winner factor for two of my favorite television stars, Steve Carrell and Kyra Sedgwick. I’m also courageously (or stupidly, depending on how you see it) predicting major upsets in both the Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series fields, though I’ll readily admit that both “Mad Men” and “30 Rock” could just as easily triumph. We’ll see what happens. To read more detailed predictions, click on the name of each category.

No guts, no glory: Battlestar Galactica for Best Directing in a Drama Series, Jemaine Clement for Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

DRAMA SERIES:
Breaking Bad

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR:
Jon Hamm, Mad Men

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS:
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Dianne Wiest, In Treatment

DRAMA DIRECTING:
Mad Men, “The Jet Set”

DRAMA WRITING:
Mad Men, “Six Month Leave”

COMEDY SERIES:
How I Met Your Mother

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR:
Steve Carell, The Office

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Tina Fey, 30 Rock

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live

COMEDY DIRECTING:
Flight of the Conchords, “The Tough Brets”

COMEDY WRITING:
30 Rock, “Apollo, Apollo”

MADE FOR TV MOVIE:
Grey Gardens

MINISERIES:
Little Dorrit

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTOR:
Ian McKellen, King Lear

MOVIE/MINI LEAD ACTRESS:
Jessica Lange, Grey Gardens

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Len Cariou, Into the Storm

MOVIE/MINI SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Saddam

MOVIE/MINI DIRECTING:
Grey Gardens

MOVIE/MINI WRITING:
Grey Gardens

VARIETY SERIES:
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

VARIETY SPECIAL:
Will Ferrell: You're Welcome America (HBO)

VARIETY SERIES DIRECTING:
Saturday Night Live

VARIETY SERIES WRITING:
Saturday Night Live

REALITY/COMPETITION PROGRAM:
The Amazing Race

REALITY HOST:
Jeff Probst, Survivor

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Thanks to Tom O’Neil over at Goldderby for providing episode information. Each series submits six episodes in three pairings that are randomly distributed to voters. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Entourage ("Fire Sale" and "Tree Trippers," "Gotta Look Up to Get Down" and "First Class Jerk," "Playin' with Fire" and "Return to Queens Boulevard")
It’s a bit of a puzzle how the buddy dramedy remains in this category. It finally made it in for its third season after a stellar second season was snubbed, and it edged out “Pushing Daisies” for the fifth slot last year, and is back despite what most agree was an abysmal fifth year. It’s an entertaining show, but it’s not really in the same league, quality-wise (at this point), as some of the other nominees, and with its lackluster episode selections, it couldn’t possibly eclipse the likes of past winners “30 Rock” and “The Office.”

Family Guy ("I Dream of Jesus" and "FOX-Y Lady," "Family Gay" and "Peter's Progress," "Road to Germany" and "Baby Not on Board")
The inclusion of FOX’s animated series is quite a major step for Emmy voters, branching out in terms of both format and appropriateness. Each submitted installment of this show is increasingly offensive, and the show makes a special effort to throw in knocks at celebrities and handicaps as often as possible. It’s a show that takes everything too far purposely, and I’m not sure voters will appreciate that. “30 Rock” and “Arrested Development” specialize in pushing the envelope, but not nearly as crudely as “Family Guy.” If these episodes leave as bad a taste in voters’ mouths as they did in mine, the show doesn’t stand a chance.

Flight of the Conchords ("Unnatural Love" and "Murray Takes It to the Next Level," "Prime Minister" and "Tough Brets," "New Cup" and "Love is the Weapon of Choice")
This nomination was a big shock too, and it may even have saved the show, which before the nominations announcement had been presumed cancelled. It’s quite hilarious to those who appreciate and get it, but to others it’s utterly off-putting and boring. It seems way too offbeat for Emmy voters to actually crown it the best comedy on television, but its episode selection contains some truly terrific and funny storylines which will appeal greatly to some voters. It would be quite a surprise if “Flight of the Conchords” pulled off a win, but it could happen. It’s got the added advantage of having fantastic songs written for each episode, though I’m not sure it’s enough to propel it to the top.

How I Met Your Mother ("Do I Know You?" and "Benefits," "The Naked Man" and "Three Days of Snow," "Wooo!" and "The Three Days Rule")
After three seasons of being all but ignored (two nominations for supporting star Neil Patrick Harris), CBS’ popular comedy finally earned a nomination for Best Comedy Series. It’s actually exactly the kind of thing that Emmy voters used to love, when laugh-track sitcoms like “Friends,” “Will & Grace,” and “Everybody Loves Raymond” won this prize. The six episodes selected are great displays of why HIMYM is beloved, and as the only nominated show that still has a laugh track (“Two and a Half Men” wasn’t going to win), I think it has an excellent shot at appealing to nostalgic voters who just like simply comedies where the laughs are laid out. It just has to get past those two hit comedies without laugh tracks, the next two nominees.

The Office – ("Michael Scott Paper Company" and "Broke," "Golden Ticket" and "Café Disco," "Stress Relief")
NBC’s hit comedy is back with its fourth nomination after winning the prize back in 2006. It’s still just as hot as ever, and this year’s Michael Scott Paper Company arc was a strong point which reinvigorated the show. The submitted episodes take two from that storyline, two merely entertaining installments (“Golden Ticket” and “Café Disco”) and one solid hour-long episode (“Stress Relief”). It’s a good mix that represents well what “The Office” has to offer. There is, however, nothing to indicate that “The Office” will win again anytime soon, especially with “30 Rock” still around and four new unpredictable contenders in the way.

30 Rock ("Believe in the Stars" and "Reunion," "Christmas Special" and "Generalissimo," "Apollo, Apollo" and "Mamma Mia")
This show may just be unbeatable. After taking home this award two years in a row, it’s back with a staggering five regular cast acting nominations, six guest acting nods, three directing mentions, and four out of five writing nominations. It’s never been as on-fire with the Emmys, and therefore it’s the default frontrunner to win a third time in a row (“Frasier” did it five times straight). The episodes are strong and just what Emmy voters will like, though I still can’t believe that neither “Gavin Volure” or “The Bubble” is on the list. It’s now only a matter of what show could manage to knock “30 Rock” off its pedestal, and whether that happens anytime soon or whether it just keeps winning and winning.

Weeds (Mother Thinks the Birds Are After Her" and "Lady's a Charm"; "The Whole Blah Damn Thing" and "Three Coolers"; "Till We Meet Again" and "If You Work for a Living, Why Do You Kill Yourself Working?")
After reinventing itself in its fourth season, Showtime’s marijuana-fueled dramedy made it in the top comedic category. The major problem facing the show is that it was considered a drama by many, and could even probably have effected a category-switch if producers had tried. The last time a show that wasn’t quite a comedy competed in this category, the inaugural season of “Desperate Housewives” lost out to the final season of “Everybody Loves Raymond.” I don’t think “Weeds” has nearly the buzz of the former, and I think multiple shows in the category are far stronger than the latter. The episodes chosen are good, but there are too many holes to fill in for a category lined with such traditional comedies.

Who should win (based on entire season): “30 Rock”
Who should win (based on individual episodes): “The Office”
Who will win: I’m going to go with How I Met Your Mother, though “30 Rock” is the one to beat and it could also be any one of the other new nominees.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Thanks to Tom O’Neil over at Goldderby for providing episode information. Each series submits six episodes in three pairings that are randomly distributed to voters. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Big Love ("Prom Queen" and "On Trial," "Come Ye Saints" and "Fight or Flight," and "Outer Darkness" and "Sacrament")
This is the one show which I haven’t watched at all. I’ve only ever seen the series pilot, and I’m actually quite shocked that it got nominated at all. Prior to this, “Big Love” only earned four nominations in total over the past two years, for directing, casting, main title design, and guest actress. It’s hardly a precedent for a Best Drama Series nomination, and even more surprisingly, the show didn’t receive a single mention besides the top category. The same thing happened with “Scrubs” in 2005, and it didn’t win either. “Big Love” doesn’t stand a chance – there’s just not any other support for the show.

Breaking Bad ("Grilled," "Peekaboo," "Better Call Saul," "4 Days Out," "Phoenix," "ABQ")
Breaking into this category is a big deal for this show, and it’s on fire this year. Reviews have been stellar, and that’s after star Bryan Cranston pulled off an upset for Best Actor for the first season of the show last year. Though episode pairings aren’t available, the chosen installments are pretty spectacular. The last two episodes in particular are extremely powerful, and I think that “Breaking Bad” has a real shot at upsetting the other AMC drama for the top prize. It’s a longshot, but this series has a lot going for it, including frontrunners for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. It made it this far; I think it may be able to go the distance.

Damages ("I Lied, Too" and "Burn It, Shred It, I Don't Care," "Hey! Mr. Pibb" and "London, Of Course", "Look What He Dug Up This Time" and "Trust Me")
Last year, FX’s legal thriller took home two acting awards but failed to edge out the season’s other freshman cable arrival in this category. Since then, the show hasn’t kicked up much buzz, and despite supporting nominations for two of its stars and a directing mention, it can’t possibly beat the juggernaut that is “Mad Men.” Like last year, the bookending episodes of the season have been submitted, but it’s not nearly as compelling as what the first year had to offer. “Damages” will likely be back in this category; maybe it will have a shot in the future.

Dexter ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight" and "Easy As Pie"; "About Last Night" and "Go Your Own Way"; "I Had a Dream" and "Do You Take Dexter Morgan?")
Last year, Showtime’s serial killer series made a surprising entry into this category. Now, it looks like it’s here to stay. While I consider season two to be superior to season three, voters seem to like the latest season as well as guest star Jimmy Smits. I don’t think “Dexter” really has the power to go all the way and win this award, but the selection of submitted episodes is pretty strong, and with seven nominees in the mix and only a small percentage of the vote needed to win, “Dexter” could potentially manage an upset. I’m not very confident in its chances.

House ("Birthmarks" and "Locked In," "Simple Explanation" and "House Divided," "Under My Skin" and "Both Sides Now")
FOX’s medical drama becomes the longest-running nominee in this category with its fourth consecutive nomination. It’s won directing and writing trophies, but never Best Actor or Best Drama Series. It’s now the only procedural-style show in the mix, and while “The Practice” beat “The Sopranos” back in 1998, “House” doesn’t have nearly enough backing behind it to muster a win. The choice of episodes includes some high points, but also loses itself in the casual disposal of Kutner and House’s hallucination of Amber. It’s not going to win this year, or likely any time in the future. If it was going to happen, it would have happened already.

Lost ("The Incident, Part 1 and 2," "The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham” and "LaFleur," "The Variable" and "Follow the Leader")
ABC’s island mystery is quite an unusual case – a show which took the Emmys by force in its first year and then disappeared until its fourth. Now it’s a completely different show, and while its episode selection may confuse the hell out of voters, it’s also immensely enjoyable to many and quite impressive in the complex crafting involved. It absolutely has enough support to garner a seventh of the vote, so if non-fans aren’t turned off by the time-traveling or distracted by cable intensity, it may win this award just like it did back in 2005. All of the episodes submitted should be equally appealing to fans and frustrating to those unfamiliar with the series.

Mad Men ("Flight 1" and "Three Sundays," "Six Month Leave" and "A Night to Remember," "The Jet Set" and "Meditations in an Emergency")
Last year’s winner in this category is back again, with a staggering number of nominations and even better reviews than it had in its first year. These are all terrific episodes that have been chosen to represent the show, and it could very well lead to a repeat victory for the show. All signs point to “Mad Men” as the frontrunner, and its main competition should be a fervent fan base for “Lost” and AMC’s other drama in its second season, “Breaking Bad.” Basically, “Mad Men” is the show to beat; it’s just a question of whether something will in fact beat it.

Who should win (based on entire season): “Mad Men”
Who should win (based on individual episodes): “Mad Men”
Who will win: I’ll go with Breaking Bad pulling off an even bigger upset than last year, narrowly edging out “Mad Men” and “Lost.”

Next up: Best Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing in a Comedy Serie

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Flight of the Conchords, “Prime Minister” (James Bobin, Jemaine Clement & Bret McKenzie)
30 Rock, “Apollo, Apollo” (Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock)
30 Rock, “Kidney Now!” (Millicent Shelton)
30 Rock, “Mamma Mia” (Ron Weiner)
30 Rock, “Reunion” (Matt Hubbard)

While it’s happened many times before in the drama writing category, this is the first time in at least the past 25 years that four out of five of the nominees have come from one show. It’s probably fair to discount two of the nominees outright: “Prime Minister” because Flight of the Conchords will likely have more success in the directing race, and “Kidney Now” because it’s a guest-star parade episode that doesn’t really show off much writing skill. It’s a bit more difficult to determine which episode of 30 Rock will ultimately take home the prize here, but I doubt it will be “Mamma Mia,” even though that was, in my opinion, the cleverest episode nominated. It’s down to “Reunion” and “Apollo, Apollo,” and while “Reunion” is a great showcase for Tina Fey, “Apollo, Apollo” seems to be immensely popular and, even though I seem not to agree with voters’ choices of best “30 Rock” episodes, it looks like Jack’s birthday celebration will get more than just a cake.

Who should win: “Mamma Mia”
Who will win: “Apollo, Apollo”

Next up: Best Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Entourage, “Tree Trippers” (Julian Farino)
Flight of the Conchords, “The Tough Brets” (James Bobin)
The Office, “Stress Relief” (Jeff Blitz)
30 Rock, “Apollo, Apollo” (Millicent Shelton)
30 Rock, “Generalissimo” (Todd Holland)
30 Rock, “Reunion” (Beth McCarthy)

This marks the first time since 2003 that a new series pilot won’t be taking home this prize since there’s no new show even nominated. That also means that none of these shows have ever won because they haven’t even been on that long. If 30 Rock can manage a win out of its three nominations, it will likely be for “Generalissimo,” since Todd Holland is a three-time winner in this category (for “Malcolm in the Middle” and “The Larry Sanders Show”). The episode of Entourage was pretty stupid, and it’s far inferior to previous nominations the show has earned. My bet would be that either The Office finally takes home a trophy for its hour-long post-Superbowl episode, or the offbeat Flight of the Conchords wins the only category where it has a legitimate shot. I’ll take a leap of faith here and predict the latter.

Who should win: “The Tough Brets”
Who will win: “The Tough Brets”

Next up: Best Writing in a Comedy Series

Creative Arts Emmy Awards Winners

It will come as great news to those unhappy with the lack of creativity among the list of Emmy nominees that a ceremony does exist where winners include the likes of “True Blood” and “Chuck.” That ceremony, unsurprisingly, is the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, which includes the categories traditionally deemed less exciting and therefore presented separately from the primetime awards ceremony. It features background elements of shows that are still crucially important, though those not in the industry hardly recognize the names of sound editors and hairstylists. Nonetheless, their work contributes immensely to the television experience, and their successes merit commendation. “Chuck” took home the award for Best Stunt Coordination for its season premiere. “True Blood” won Best Casting, but lost the Main Title Design honor to “The United States of Tara.” Decide for yourself: watch them both here and here. The most unfortunate and silly win is in the Best Special Visual Effects category, where the two-hour season premiere of “Heroes” somehow eclipsed the series finale of “Battlestar Galactica” (and the pilot of “Fringe” for that matter, which was definitely more visually impressive than “Heroes”). The best overall win comes in the Best Special Class Program field, where “Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog” deservedly took home the award. The only categories I made predictions for were the guest acting ones, and I scored 3/4. Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series went to Michael J. Fox (“Rescue Me”), Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series was Ellen Burstyn (“Law & Order: SVU”), and Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series went to the only possible winner in the category: Tina Fey (“Saturday Night Live”). The major surprise of the ceremony was Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series, which went not to legendary comedians Alan Alda or Steve Martin or established actors Jon Hamm or Beau Bridges, but instead to Justin Timberlake (“Saturday Night Live”). It’s a bit peculiar, and I haven’t seen the episode, so I can’t comment much other than to say that it seems like he may be quite funny.

Head over to the Emmys website for the full list of Creative Arts Emmy Awards winners, and check back each day for the rest of this week for my predictions in the remaining primetime categories. You can watch the Creative Arts ceremony this Friday at 1pm on E! and the primetime Emmy Awards ceremony airs Sunday at 8pm on CBS.

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Writing in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Lost , “The Incident” (Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof)
Mad Men, “The Jet Set” (Matthew Weiner)
Mad Men, “Meditations in an Emergency” (Kater Gordon & Matthew Weiner)
Mad Men, “A Night to Remember” (Robin Veith & Matthew Weiner)
Mad Men, “Six Month Leave” (Andre Jacquemetton, Marie Jacquemetton & Matthew Weiner)

Vote-splitting logic might dictate that Lost would prevail as the lone nominee from a show besides Mad Men. While the two-hour season finale was quite a tour de force, history has shown that when a show has four of five writing nods, it always wins. “The Sopranos” did it three times – 1999, 2001, and 2004 – and each time, it won. Predicting which “Mad Men” installment will be crowned the victor is a bit tougher. Directing and writing don’t usually match up, so “The Jet Set” may not prevail here. It will probably be either the season finale, “Meditations in an Emergency,” or the most moving episode of “Mad Men” this season, “Six Month Leave.” I’ll go with the latter.

Who should win: “The Jet Set”
Who will win: “Six Month Leave”

Next up: Best Directing in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Directing in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Battlestar Galactica, “Daybreak, Part 2” (Micheal Rymer)
Boston Legal, “Made in China/Last Call” (Bill D’Elia)
Damages, “Trust Me” (Todd A. Kessler)
ER, “And in the End” (Rod Holcomb)
Mad Men, “The Jet Set” (Phil Abraham)

This year’s list includes three series finales, one season finale, and one episode of Emmy voters’ current favorite drama series. I can’t imagine the ludicrous Boston Legal closer winning over enough voters, and I also don’t think that ER can muster up enough support for a win after all its time away from the Emmys (its only win was 14 years ago for a season one episode) – I think its sendoff nomination this year is its win. It would be truly fantastic if Battlestar Galactica could walk away with some sort of consolation prize for its lack of nominations elsewhere, but I don’t think a sci-fi series can make history and win this award. It’s down then to the two popular new shows from last year, and Mad Men trounces Damages in every possible way. “Damages" may have star power, but I think that the only episode of “Mad Men” nominated here is the clear frontrunner.

Who should win: “The Jet Set”
Who will win: “The Jet Set”

Next up: Best Writing in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Jennifer Aniston, “30 Rock”
Christine Baranski, “The Big Bang Theory”
Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live”
Gena Rowlands, “Monk”
Betty White, “My Name is Earl”
Elaine Stritch, “30 Rock”

This category is chock-full of actresses very familiar to Emmy voters. Elaine Stritch won this award two years ago for the same role, though her part this year was considerably diminished. Former “Friends” actress Jennifer Aniston wasn’t that memorable in her guest spot on “30 Rock,” but could prevail like the similarly not stellar Christina Applegate did for guest-starring on “Friends” six years ago. Betty White could follow in gazillion-time winner Cloris Leachman’s footsteps and win for her performance as a crazy old witch lady, but the role is incredibly dumb. Gena Rowlands might get the sympathetic vote for her portrayal of a woman who takes Monk under her motherly wing, while another mother, Christine Baranski, wasn’t quite as supportive but fit in with her show perfectly. It all doesn’t really matter, because this award is going to the most buzzed-about performance of the season: Tina Fey as Sarah Palin.

Who should win: Tina Fey
Who will win: No contest: Tina Fey.

Next up: Best Directing in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Alan Alda, “30 Rock”
Beau Bridges, “Desperate Housewives”
Jon Hamm, “30 Rock”
Steve Martin, “30 Rock”
Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live”

In past years, voters have rewarded actors for their broad, energetic comedic performances. This year, no nominee really fits that pill. Steve Martin was relatively sedated in an episode people didn’t really seem to like. Jon Hamm isn’t terribly active either, but his good-looking-man arc was popular. Alan Alda is a legendary Emmy champ, and his good-natured performance as Jack’s kidney-seeking Democratic father may win over his fans. Justin Timberlake’s chances are difficult to gauge because he’s not necessarily a true actor and is up for his hosting job on a variety series, and this category hasn’t been a home to that type of performer before. I think voters will act like they did last year, when they gave past Emmy winner Tim Conway the award for a lackluster performance on “30 Rock,” and reward Beau Bridges, whose story-anchoring nice-guy-plumber spot on “Desperate Housewives” was considered by many to be the high point of that show’s season.

Who should win: Steve Martin or Jon Hamm
Who will win: It could be anyone in this bunch, but I think the heavy favorite will be Beau Bridges.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Brenda Blethyn, “Law & Order: SVU”
Carol Burnett, “Law & Order: SVU”
Ellen Burstyn, “Law & Order: SVU”
Sharon Lawrence, “Grey’s Anatomy”
CCH Pounder, “The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency”

Of all these ladies, only one of them has an Emmy – and she has a bunch. Carol Burnett has been a TV presence for decades, and her serious role could garner her a win in a different category than her usual fare. Three out of the past four years, the winner in this category has been from “Law & Order: SVU.” Brenda Blethyn isn’t as well known, and that may hurt her, and she doesn’t have nearly as showy a role as Oscar winner Ellen Burstyn, who played Detective Stabler’s unstable mother. Last year’s winner, Cynthia Nixon, portrayed a woman with multiple personalities – that could be just what Emmy voters are looking for again. Sharon Lawrence’s role as Izzie’s mother wasn’t terribly serious, and I doubt that voters would crown CCH Pounder the winner for a show no one has heard of (I haven’t even been able to find her episode) after not rewarding her for her nominated work on “The Shield,” “ER,” and “The X-Files.”

Who should win: Brenda Blethyn
Who will win: My best is that the baity role Ellen Burstyn had will ultimately win over Emmy voters, though TV legend Carol Burnett could upset.

Next up: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order.

Ed Asner, “CSI: New York”
Ernest Borgnine, “ER”
Ted Danson, “Damages”
Michael J. Fox, “Rescue Me”
Jimmy Smits, “Dexter”

The nominees in this category boast an impressive Emmy record: Ed Asner has won 7 times out of 16 mentions, Ted Danson has 13 nominations and 2 wins, Jimmy Smits took home an award for one of his 11 nods, and Michael J. Fox has gone four for ten. In case you think two-time Emmy nominee Ernest Borgnine doesn’t belong, I should point out that he’s the lone Oscar winner in the bunch, and that was 44 years ago – he’s currently 92 years old. Asner and Borgnine appeared once and twice, respectively, on their series, while the other three recurred throughout the season. Previous winners include six guest stars from “The Practice,” the kind of role that both elder statesmen play. Still, I think that the elected winner will be Michael J. Fox, who was nominated for this award several years ago for “Boston Legal” and really went out of his way to play against type as an alcoholic cripple on “Rescue Me.”

Who should win: Michael J. Fox
Who will win: It could be anyone of them, and my guess is Michael J. Fox. Watch out for a career salute to the Emmy-less Borgnine, though.

Next up: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Kristin Chenoweth as Olive Snook, Pushing Daisies (Bad Habits)
Chenoweth is the only remnant of ABC’s quickly-cancelled show, earning her second nomination for her high-pitched portrayal of Coeur d’Coeur’s pleasantest pie server. Some weren’t pleased with Chenoweth’s nunnery detour this season, but her episode (the last in that arc) is entirely charming and a terrific compilation of everything that Chenoweth does best. Her show being off the air doesn’t help her much, but the actress may be beloved enough by Broadway fans to pull off a win.

Jane Krakowski as Jenna Moroney, 30 Rock (The Ones)
Snubbed by voters for the first two seasons of NBC’s hit comedy and sidelined this year in terms of plotlines, Krakowski’s finally an Emmy nominee. The popularity of her show is what may well earn her a win (as well as the overdue factor), but her episode choice isn’t as brilliant as it could be. Nothing could match Season 1’s “Hardball,” but in my opinion she would have been better off submitting the episode where she was going to die from lack of sleep instead of “The Ones,” where she poisons Kenneth to see a cute EMT again. She’s still got a great shot, but this is an immensely competitive category and she may just have to wait until next year.

Amy Poehler as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Josh Brolin)
This is the second nomination in this category for the now-departed variety player. She wasn’t recognized for her lead role in her new NBC show, “Parks & Recreation,” but earned another nod here for what may essentially boil down to one scene. Her episode is dominated by fellow nominee Kristin Wiig, but the raved-about rap she does about Sarah Palin at the end of the episode may clinch the win for her. Alec Baldwin won for one scene last year on “30 Rock,” and with variety shows, it’s a lot easier to pick out one great scene.

Elizabeth Perkins as Celia Hodes, Weeds (No Man Is Pudding)
Perkins is back after a one-year hiatus for her third nomination as the devious, manipulative Celia. In her episode, however, she’s not so devious or manipulative, instead she’s being dragged around by a furious Nancy and getting her tooth knocked out. It’s a funny performance, but it may be a bit too violent for Emmy voters’ tastes. “Weeds” did finally earn a Best Comedy Series nomination, but this doesn’t feel like Perkins’ year, especially with all the competition she has to face.

Kristin Wiig as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (Neil Patrick Harris)
Wiig is just one part of the impressive showing of “Saturday Night Live” in the acting categories this year (four, including guests Justin Timberlake and Tina Fey). She’s arguably the strongest member of the cast at this point, especially after the departure of fellow nominee Poehler. The problem is, all her characters are almost identical, and they can be pretty annoying. Still, she has an impressive number of scenes in Poehler’s tape and her own. I don’t think she can beat Poehler, but it’s possible.

Vanessa Williams as Wilhelmina Slater, Ugly Betty (The Fall Issue)
It’s sad to me that, just as I’m warming up to Williams, she doesn’t stand a chance. “Ugly Betty” suffered the Emmy loss of its lead actress this year, and the show hasn’t been nominated since the first season. This is the third nomination for Williams, and her season finale submission is quite terrific, but I don’t think it will matter. Everyone in this category is so bold and showy, and clearly there’s not much support out there for Williams’ show, and it’s not as if she’s a default nominee like Tyne Daly.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kristin Chenoweth
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Kristin Chenoweth or Vanessa Williams
Who will win: Last year, Jean Smart pulled off a shocking win for her role on “Samantha Who” but isn’t even nominated this year. It will likely be Amy Poehler, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Chenoweth, Krakowski, Wiig, or Perkins called up to the podium.

Next up: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Jon Cryer as Alan Harper, Two and a Half Men (Sir Lancelot’s Litterbox)
This is Cryer’s fourth straight nomination, and he managed to survive the dismissal of his show in the Best Comedy Series category. His episode submission showcases his high-pitched antics and gives him a great platform to relentlessly mock Charlie, which is always a selling point for the comic actor. Cryer would be a frontrunner this year, but he may have messed up his chances with a potentially off-color comment he made during an Emmy roundtable where he expressed his view that gay actors shouldn’t come out because their onscreen heterosexual romances won’t seem real. Many have pointed out that fellow nominee Neil Patrick Harris wouldn’t be too happy about that; I doubt many voters will be either.

Kevin Dillon as Johnny Chase, Entourage (Tree Trippers)
There’s always one nominee who just doesn’t have a prayer. Dillon made it in two years ago and somehow has returned each year since then. This time, food-poisoned costar Jeremy Piven got snubbed by voters, and as a result, Dillon’s the only “Entourage” representative. His episode is pretty stupid, wandering around high on mushrooms with the gang, though clearly Emmy voters liked it enough to nominate its director. Dillon doesn’t stand much of a chance against the other nominees in this category, and with the exception of the more-mature Piven, “Entourage” has never actually proven that popular with Emmy voters. Dillon’s going to sit this one out.

Neil Patrick Harris as Barnie Stinson, How I Met Your Mother (Benefits)
Harris is hotter than ever this year after last summer’s “Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog” webisode series and his role as host of the Emmy ceremony itself. This is his third nomination, and with Jeremy Piven out of the running, Harris may finally have a shot at winning his first Emmy. He certainly has the buzz factor that none of the other nominees in this category have. His episode submission isn’t great since it doesn’t showcase much of his comedic talents, but I don’t think that will be too big of a hurdle, especially with his show earning its first-ever Best Comedy Series nomination this year.

Jack McBrayer as Kenneth Parcell, 30 Rock (The Bubble)
As NBC’s wacko comedy becomes even more popular, McBrayer finally gets the recognition he deserved for the first two seasons of the show. Unfortunately, it comes a bit too late and there’s no way he could possibly win this year. For one thing, he has to compete with costar Tracy Morgan, who dominates most of his plotline in his McBrayer’s submitted episode! McBrayer has one fun scene, but it won’t be enough to impress voters. He’s a great actor who hopefully will return next year to this category, but he won’t be bringing home a trophy this year.

Tracy Morgan as Tracy Jordan, 30 Rock (The Funcooker)
Crazy as both he and his character are, Tracy Jordan may be exactly what this category needs. He’s completely outrageous and rather hilarious to boot. His submitted episode finds him realizing he can swear as much as he wants on TV if he just buys the ad time in between programs. It’s a really fun episode, and could very well cement Morgan’s chances, on top of the overwhelming popularity of the show. I simply can’t picture Morgan actually winning an Emmy – it just doesn’t seem right.

Rainn Wilson as Dwight Schrute, The Office (Heavy Competition)
Wilson’s back for the third year in a row as the sole cube dweller, further emphasizing the fact that voters prefer loud and abrasive comedy (Wilson) to subtle, calmer work (John Krasinski). Wilson’s episode is a great use of his talents, and he gets to demonstrate his sales tactics on top of his general over-the-top comic nature. Wilson’s performance in his episode, where he goes head-to-head with his former boss, is more well-rounded than his past submissions, and this may just be the year Wilson takes home his first Emmy.

Who should win (based on entire season): Rainn Wilson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Rainn Wilson
Who will win: This strikes me as the year of Neil Patrick Harris, but it could easily go to Wilson, Morgan, or Cryer.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Rose Byrne as Ellen Parsons, Damages (Trust Me)
Byrne was unexpectedly snubbed last year, but now she’s in as her show returns for a second season that was as popular with Emmy voters as the first. The problem that’s always plaguing Parsons is that she’s unquestionably a lead and doesn’t belong in this category at all. She clearly managed to impress enough voters to earn a nomination, so her chances may be decent, especially since she’s not lumped in the same category as costar Glenn Close. Her episode offers her plenty of material in the season finale, and if she can overcome her youthful standing in comparison to her fellow nominees and her category fraud, she might just have a shot.

Hope Davis as Mia, In Treatment (Mia: Week 6)
Davis is the nominee who most screwed herself over with her episode submission. She was dazzling me by the third or fourth week with her defiant attitude and refusal to accept Paul’s therapy making her feel weak. But in the sixth week’s installment, she doesn’t display any of that – she breaks down and shuts off. It’s still a great performance, but definitely the wrong episode to submit, especially since voters won’t necessarily have seen the rest of the season to appreciate how spectacular she is at other times (she’s my winner). I think that takes Davis out of the running, sadly, though it would be nice to see her still pull off a win.

Cherry Jones as President Allison Taylor, 24 (Day 7: 7:00am-8:00am)
The only sign that former Best Drama Series winner “24” is still on the air comes in the form of a nomination for the latest president to grace the show. Taylor is good, honest, and incorruptible, and that’s exactly what her episode submission is trying to show. Unfortunately, it doesn’t exactly trumpet family values, and Taylor’s decision not to protect her scheming daughter from punishment for her treacherous actions probably won’t resonate if voters haven’t seen the full season of the show. Jones is an acclaimed stage actress and shouldn’t be underestimated, but this performance isn’t likely to be the one that earns her an inaugural Emmy to go along with her two Tonys.

Sandra Oh as Dr. Cristina Yang, Grey’s Anatomy (Elevator Love Letter)
Oh is the only actor from “Grey’s Anatomy” who has been nominated every year the show has aired, but she still has yet to win. She didn’t make it any of the previous times, ultimately being edged out by acclaimed actresses Blythe Danner and Dianne Wiest, and once by costar Katherine Heigl, who isn’t nominated this year. Oh’s episode finds her dealing with her ex-army boyfriend’s post-traumatic stress, which manifests itself in him choking her while she’s sleeping. It’s a good showcase of Oh’s talents, but there’s nothing to suggest that this is Oh’s year.

Dianne Wiest as Gina, In Treatment (Gina: Week 6)
The no-show was the victor in this category last year for her once-a-week performance as therapist to the therapist on HBO’s drama. Wiest is the only actor besides lead Gabriel Byrne who stuck around for the second season, and there’s no reason why she couldn’t easily repeat. Her episode affords her the opportunity to strike back at Paul’s abusive behavior, and actually shows the usually calm and seated Gina standing up and yelling at Paul. Costar Hope Davis shouldn’t be much of a problem since the two never share the screen, and Wiest beat both “Grey’s Anatomy” ladies last year. Why wouldn’t she triumph again?

Chandra Wilson as Dr. Miranda Bailey, Grey’s Anatomy (Stairway to Heaven)
This is Wilson’s fourth year being nominated for her role as mentor to all the promiscuous young doctors on ABC’s soapy series. Wilson hasn’t yet won, and she’s had pretty powerful episodes in the past. This year, she risks his career and her principles to save a young boy who’s dying by considering letting a death-row inmate take his own life. It’s a passionate portrayal, and any Wilson fan will go wild for it, but she hasn’t mustered enough support in the past to garner a win, so this year likely won’t be any different, especially as “Grey’s Anatomy” continues to be recognized less and less by Emmy voters. She probably has a better shot than costar Oh, but she won a SAG two years ago and still hasn’t won an Emmy. The show isn’t ending anytime soon (presumably, at least), and so it should be a while before she gets her overdue mention.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hope Davis
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Dianne Wiest
Who will win: Reigning champ Dianne Wiest will likely return to the podium (if she’s there, that is), though it’s possible that Byrne or Jones could upset.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Christian Clemenson as Jerry Espenson, Boston Legal (Roe)
Clemenson won an Emmy in the guest actor category for the show’s second season in 2006. He earned a nomination again in 2007, and placed in the top ten when he was promoted to series regular the following year. This year, he’s earned his first supporting nomination as the show aired its final season and got snubbed in the Best Drama Series category. Clemenson did very well by submitting “Roe,” where his oddball lawyer defends himself in court after standing up to a bully. Many will likely be impressed with Espenson’s ability to deftly portray this character with so many tics. Espenson does have internal competition to face – William Shatner is also nominated for “Boston Legal” – but last year, Zeljko Ivanek proved that the lesser-known actor can often prevail when he beat out “Damages” costar Ted Danson in this category.

Michael Emerson as Benjamin Linus, Lost (Dead is Dead)
This is Emerson’s third straight nomination in this category, and like last year, he’s the only nominated cast member of “Lost” in any category. He has yet to win, but I don’t think this is the year. Both his submitted episode and the other episode he could have gone with, the season finale “The Incident,” are terrific instances of his vicious monster of a character being humanized. The trouble is, voters who haven’t seen “Lost” don’t have the background on the character, and therefore seeing him terrified and apologizing to the ghost of his dead daughter doesn’t carry the same weight. “Lost” is clearly popular with voters, returning to the Best Drama Series list last year after a two-year absence, but this category is just too crowded. There’s no reason he would win this year over any other; he’s been just as great the whole time.

William Hurt as Daniel Parcell, Damages (Hey, Mr. Pibb)
Hurt is a four-time Oscar nominee and winner for 1985’s “Kiss of the Spider Woman, and his last nomination came for a 10-minute performance in 2005’s “A History of Violence.” Therefore, it’s no surprise that Hurt got nominated for an underwritten role on FX’s legal thriller, though this is his first-ever Emmy nomination. Hurt chose the episode where it’s revealed that he’s taking a bribe from Ultima National Resources and recants his testimony, blowing a huge hole in Patty Hewes’ case. Someone pointed out that Glenn Close is the one who actually owns this episode, and, like Emerson’s performance, Hurt’s betrayal likely won’t pack the same punch if his initial cries of help to Patty aren’t known to voters. He could still win, but I’m betting he won’t. One more advantage: a “Damages” star won this award last year.

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (Peekaboo)
Paul has so many factors going for him. He managed to break into this category of established character actors, his show is red-hot and earned a somewhat surprising Best Drama Series nomination, and he chose the perfect episode to impress voters. “Peekaboo” showcases Jesse going after the people who stole his meth, and bearing witness to a vengeful abused wife letting an ATM machine fall on her husband’s face, brutally killing him. It’s usually hard to sympathize with high school dropout and drug dealer Jesse, but this episode allows viewers to see him thrown into an impossible situation and just deal with it. I think if Paul was able to get nominated, he can win. This is going to be a big year for “Breaking Bad,” and I think it can Paul’s its safest bet.

William Shatner as Denny Crane, Boston Legal (Made in China/Last Call)
Shatner won this award on his first try back in 2005 after a win in the guest actor category the previous year for creating the character on “The Practice.” Now, his show’s over and he has the possibility of bookending his time on the series with wins at the start and the finish. He submitted the grandstanding series finale. It’s a preposterous double-hitter, but it’s very true to the show’s offbeat nature, so voters who liked him in the past will likely favor him again. It’s hardly serious, and shooting people repeatedly with a paintball gun and entering into a gay marriage just so that he can transfer money doesn’t really help his case. He’s also already had his day, and has a more talented performer from his own show to contend against, so while I think he could upset, I don’t think it will be Shatner’s turn this year.

John Slattery as Roger Sterling, Mad Men (Six Month Leave)
This is Slattery’s second consecutive nomination as “Mad Men” becomes even more popular and returns with “Sopranos”-like force to take dominate many of the Emmy categories. Unfortunately for Slattery, he’s the least showy of all “Mad Men” has to offer. Last year Slattery had a standout episode where his character suffered a heart attack and relied his closeness to his family, but this year’s installment doesn’t showcase his secretary-starring midlife crisis, and contains little dramatic material specifically for him. “Mad Men” still has the buzz but Slattery doesn’t.

Who should win (based on entire season): Michael Emerson
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Michael Emerson
Who will win: I think that the buzz for “Breaking Bad” will lead Aaron Paul to prevail. Clemenson, Emerson, Shatner, and Hurt could also win – in that order.

Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Christina Applegate as Samantha Newly, Samantha Who? (The Pill)
Applegate’s inclusion comes as a bit of a surprise considering that last year’s freshman entry got cancelled by ABC halfway through its second season. Costar winner Jean Smart isn’t back this year, but Applegate is. If “30 Rock” wasn’t as popular, Applegate might have defeated Tina Fey last year. Now, “Samantha Who” has no buzz but Applegate may get sympathetic farewell votes. Her episode is a fun installment where Applegate gets the chance to recall, if only briefly, all of Sam’s lost memories. I don’t think she’ll have enough support to win, but she could pull it off.

Toni Collette as Tara, The United States of Tara (Pilot)
Collette is one of only two nominees this year from a new series. Her role is certainly Emmy bait, as she gets to play multiple roles and really get into each one of them. Like nominee Simon Baker, she smartly submitted the pilot episode, so viewers are easily introduced to the character and don’t require any background to get into the show. Four years ago, Felicity Huffman won this award for the “Desperate Housewives” pilot for a slightly more dramatic, frazzled mother role, and I think that Collette could very well take this award this year for a more serious performance than her fellow nominees.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Christine Campbell, The New Adventures of Old Christine (Everyone Says I Love You Except Richie)
This is Louis-Dreyfus’ fourth consecutive nomination for her post-“Seinfeld” comeback. She already won the award for the first year of the show, and I think that a big part of that win was the fact that she actually managed to find a new series that didn’t get cancelled right away. Her episode is fairly gimmicky, showcasing Christine’s desperate attempts to get her son to say “I love you” and her inappropriate relationship with her brother. It’s nothing terribly fresh or exciting, and she really doesn’t shine the same way all the other nominees do.

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (Reunion)
Last year’s winner is back again, and her show is dominating every category more even more this time around. Fey’s just as popular and she has her other nominated performance, as Sarah Palin on “Saturday Night Live,” working in her favor. Her chosen episode spotlights her attempts to fit in at her high school reunion, only to learn that she was actually seen as a bully rather than the unpopular kid. It’s a fun performance that speaks to her talents, and it’s fair to say that she’s the frontrunner.

Mary-Louise Parker as Nancy Botwin, Weeds (Lady’s a Charm)
This is Parker’s third consecutive nomination, and this year she has the force of her show finally breaking into the Best Comedy Series category behind her. Many have slammed her episode submission, but I think it’s actually quite terrific. She’s sent on a run to Mexico and ends up stuck in her car for hours waiting to get back into the United States. It’s filled with wisecracks for Parker to mutter, and I think it definitely puts her in the running. I think she might actually be able to pull off a win this time.

Sarah Silverman as Sarah Silverman, The Sarah Silverman Program (There’s No Place Like Homeless)
Silverman’s inclusion comes as quite a shock, and to consider the fact that she could actually win is pretty unbelievable. Her nomination feels like part of Emmy voters’ attempt to branch out to less traditional and tame fare, along with the nod for “Family Guy” in the Best Comedy Series category. Silverman’s episode is entirely offensive, and the clearly well-off actress pretending that she’s homeless isn’t likely to go over well in hard economic times. The supporting plotline doesn’t help anything, and I can’t imagine enough people actually voting for her in order for her to win.

Who should win (based on entire season): Tina Fey
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Mary-Louise Parker
Who will win: It’s probable that Tina Fey will be crowned the victor again, but watch out for an upset by Collette, Parker, or Applegate.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock (Generalissimo)
Baldwin won this award last year, and his show roared back this year after two consecutive Best Comedy Series wins with nods for all five major cast members and four out of five writing nominations. The easy move would be to predict Baldwin again, especially because he plays not one but two characters in his submitted episode. I think that while Baldwin’s chances are excellent, he may not win again right away. Tony Shalhoub’s repeat victories despite people growing tired of him indicate that Baldwin may repeat, and voters probably aren’t even sick of him yet. He’s a very probably possibility, but I’m willing to look at other contenders.

Steve Carrell as Michael Scott, The Office (Broke)
Even though “The Office” won an Emmy for Best Comedy Series in its second season, star Carrell hasn’t yet won, facing off against and losing to Tony Shalhoub, the original “Office” boss, Ricky Gervais, and Baldwin. There’s a good chance that voters may finally be willing to reward the hard-working star, and Carrell’s episode is the perfect vehicle to garner him the win. He’s funny as usual, but the added dramatic poignancy of his negotiation scene where he lays out to his superiors why exactly he’s the right man for his job may lead him to his first win. It’s also a great way of recognizing “The Office” since it won’t win in the Best Comedy Series category again this year.

Jemaine Clement as Jemaine, Flight of the Conchords (Unnatural Love)
The fact that Clement got nominated at all is incredibly unbelievable, and imagining a win seems even more unlikely. Regardless, his episode is quite hilarious and Clement’s a big part of that. His inclusion, and the mention for the show in the Best Comedy Series category, is a sign that voters may have an unexpected funny bone. Clement doesn’t quite fit in with the rest of this bunch (even moreso than the wooden Charlie Sheen). I’d call him a dark horse, but I think that this half of the New Zealand folk parody duo is just too offbeat for Emmy voters to embrace wholeheartedly.

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (The Bath Item Gift Hypothesis)
Parsons is immensely popular and people really love his dorky performance on CBS’ sitcom. His snub last year was decried by fans, and the fact that he made the list this year elevates him to the level of serious contender. I recognize that there’s a dedicated fanbase that loves Parsons, but I think the lack of support in any other category lowers Parsons’ chances. Additionally, he’s facing off against seasoned veterans with at least three nominations apiece, and in the past fifteen years, the same faces have popped up half the time, and only Ricky Gervais (“Extras”) stands out as the sole winner on a show with few other nominations to take home the gold on his first try. Will Parsons be the exception or prove the rule?

Tony Shalhoub as Detective Adrian Monk, Monk (Mr. Monk and the Miracle)
Shalhoub’s on his seventh nomination, and he’s won three times. He’s also one of the winners who has elicited major backlash and encouraged Emmy predictors to pray for others to be recognized. The other repeat winner who pissed off Emmy voters (Jeremy Piven) got shafted this year and left off the list altogether. Shalhoub should count his lucky stars that he’s back again, and while he’s likely to win again next year for the show’s final season, he won’t this year. His episode is nothing spectacular, and I think the fact that he’s won so many times before will decrease his chances.

Charlie Sheen as Charlie Harper, Two and a Half Men (The 'Ocu' or the 'Pado'?)
Now here’s one actor whose crowning as an Emmy winner would likely incite riots. Sheen’s back for his third round as an Emmy nominee for his lifeless portrayal of a jingle-writer slacker. The sitcom has never produced an acting Emmy winner despite 11 nominations over the past four years, and this year support for the program was effectively severed as it was dropped from the Best Comedy Series list, even with the additional of two more nominees to the field. Sheen does have funny lines in his episode, but imagining this guy beating out actual actors just doesn’t seem possible.

Who should win (based on entire season): Steve Carrell
Who should win (based on individual episodes): Jemaine Clement or Steve Carrell
Who will win: My bet is Steve Carrell, but it could just as easily be Parsons or Baldwin.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Glenn Close as Patty Hewes, Damages (Trust Me)
Last year’s winner submitted wisely this year, picking an episode that shows the full scenes heavily teased at throughout the entire season. Rather than risk frustrating some viewers with too much mystery, she is instead able to showcase two powerhouse confrontation scenes, one with costar Rose Byrne and the other with a random attacker in an elevator. It’s Close at her best, owning up to Patty’s wrongdoings while manipulating events in her favor. I think it’s too early for Close to repeat this year, and despite nominations for costars William Hurt and Byrne, “Damages” doesn’t seem to be as popular as it was in its first season.

Sally Field as Nora Walker, Brothers & Sisters (A Father Dreams)
If there’s anyone guaranteed not to win this year, it’s Field. She won for the show’s first season two years ago, and returned as a nominee last year. This time, her costar Rachel Griffiths got dropped from the supporting category, and the always-sparse Emmy support for the show seems to be waning. On top of that, Field’s submitted episode is nothing memorable, and there are presumably those (like me) who think she’s tremendously annoying. Even if she had a good episode, she’s already won and she has no buzz factor going for her to earn her another win.

Mariska Hargitay as Detective Olivia Benson, Law & Order: SVU (PTSD)
This is Hargitay’s sixth straight nomination, and she’s managed to stay in this field and edge out some heavy cable competition like January Jones, Anna Paquin, and Mary McDonnell. She won back in 2006 for the episode “911,” and her latest episode submission follows last year’s installment and her dealing with her near-rape. It’s a strong episode for Hargitay but not nearly as effective as the one that won her the award three years ago. The actresses who did make it into the lineup with her all have impressive episodes, so I don’t think Hargitay’s really a threat to win this year.

Holly Hunter as Grace Hanadarko, Saving Grace (Have A Seat, Earl)
Oscar-winning movie star Hunter was nominated last year for her basic cable series’ freshman season but lost out to another Oscar-winning film actress with a new TV show. Hunter’s submission of the season premiere is a stunning showcase of her portrayal of an over-the-edge cop dealing with the man who molested her as a child. Hunter’s performance is terrific, but her submission of the season one finale, where she discovers that he’s still alive and goes to confront him, didn’t win voters over last year. I’d say that Hunter may win, but she’s not the frontrunner.

Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (Meditations in an Emergency)
This is Moss’ first nomination after a top ten placement in this category last year. She edged out the other lead “Mad Men” female, January Jones, for this slot, and her episode submission could make lead her to a slam-dunk victory. Her scene with Vincent Kartheiser’s Pete where she tells him about their baby by itself is enough to secure her a win. Her show’s certainly on fire, but what might hurt her is that she’s not as clearly a lead and she doesn’t have an excessive amount of screen time, unlike the other five women in this category. Still, watch out for her as a big possibility.

Kyra Sedgwick as Detective Brenda Leigh Johnson (Cherry Bomb)
Despite four nominations in a row, Sedgwick has never won this award. Nothing else about her show has ever been recognized by the Emmy Awards, and it’s still a ratings kingpin, and therefore her chances are just as good as they were when the show first started. Her selected episode is great, featuring her boldly taking on a cop who’s trying to protect his rapist son under the cover of his authority. No other contender (besides maybe Moss) has buzz currently going for them, and therefore this may finally be Sedgwick’s year.

Who should win (based on entire season): Kyra Sedgwick
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Kyra Sedgwick or Elisabeth Moss
Who will win: I’ll go with Kyra Sedgwick to clinch it, barely edging out Moss, with Hunter nipping at her heels.

Next up: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series