Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses.

Rose Byrne as Ellen Parsons, Damages (Trust Me)
Byrne was unexpectedly snubbed last year, but now she’s in as her show returns for a second season that was as popular with Emmy voters as the first. The problem that’s always plaguing Parsons is that she’s unquestionably a lead and doesn’t belong in this category at all. She clearly managed to impress enough voters to earn a nomination, so her chances may be decent, especially since she’s not lumped in the same category as costar Glenn Close. Her episode offers her plenty of material in the season finale, and if she can overcome her youthful standing in comparison to her fellow nominees and her category fraud, she might just have a shot.

Hope Davis as Mia, In Treatment (Mia: Week 6)
Davis is the nominee who most screwed herself over with her episode submission. She was dazzling me by the third or fourth week with her defiant attitude and refusal to accept Paul’s therapy making her feel weak. But in the sixth week’s installment, she doesn’t display any of that – she breaks down and shuts off. It’s still a great performance, but definitely the wrong episode to submit, especially since voters won’t necessarily have seen the rest of the season to appreciate how spectacular she is at other times (she’s my winner). I think that takes Davis out of the running, sadly, though it would be nice to see her still pull off a win.

Cherry Jones as President Allison Taylor, 24 (Day 7: 7:00am-8:00am)
The only sign that former Best Drama Series winner “24” is still on the air comes in the form of a nomination for the latest president to grace the show. Taylor is good, honest, and incorruptible, and that’s exactly what her episode submission is trying to show. Unfortunately, it doesn’t exactly trumpet family values, and Taylor’s decision not to protect her scheming daughter from punishment for her treacherous actions probably won’t resonate if voters haven’t seen the full season of the show. Jones is an acclaimed stage actress and shouldn’t be underestimated, but this performance isn’t likely to be the one that earns her an inaugural Emmy to go along with her two Tonys.

Sandra Oh as Dr. Cristina Yang, Grey’s Anatomy (Elevator Love Letter)
Oh is the only actor from “Grey’s Anatomy” who has been nominated every year the show has aired, but she still has yet to win. She didn’t make it any of the previous times, ultimately being edged out by acclaimed actresses Blythe Danner and Dianne Wiest, and once by costar Katherine Heigl, who isn’t nominated this year. Oh’s episode finds her dealing with her ex-army boyfriend’s post-traumatic stress, which manifests itself in him choking her while she’s sleeping. It’s a good showcase of Oh’s talents, but there’s nothing to suggest that this is Oh’s year.

Dianne Wiest as Gina, In Treatment (Gina: Week 6)
The no-show was the victor in this category last year for her once-a-week performance as therapist to the therapist on HBO’s drama. Wiest is the only actor besides lead Gabriel Byrne who stuck around for the second season, and there’s no reason why she couldn’t easily repeat. Her episode affords her the opportunity to strike back at Paul’s abusive behavior, and actually shows the usually calm and seated Gina standing up and yelling at Paul. Costar Hope Davis shouldn’t be much of a problem since the two never share the screen, and Wiest beat both “Grey’s Anatomy” ladies last year. Why wouldn’t she triumph again?

Chandra Wilson as Dr. Miranda Bailey, Grey’s Anatomy (Stairway to Heaven)
This is Wilson’s fourth year being nominated for her role as mentor to all the promiscuous young doctors on ABC’s soapy series. Wilson hasn’t yet won, and she’s had pretty powerful episodes in the past. This year, she risks his career and her principles to save a young boy who’s dying by considering letting a death-row inmate take his own life. It’s a passionate portrayal, and any Wilson fan will go wild for it, but she hasn’t mustered enough support in the past to garner a win, so this year likely won’t be any different, especially as “Grey’s Anatomy” continues to be recognized less and less by Emmy voters. She probably has a better shot than costar Oh, but she won a SAG two years ago and still hasn’t won an Emmy. The show isn’t ending anytime soon (presumably, at least), and so it should be a while before she gets her overdue mention.

Who should win (based on entire season): Hope Davis
Who will win (based on individual episodes): Dianne Wiest
Who will win: Reigning champ Dianne Wiest will likely return to the podium (if she’s there, that is), though it’s possible that Byrne or Jones could upset.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series