The top 10 lists for the Best Comedy Series and Best Drama Series have been revealed one day early. I'm happy to have correctly predicted 8/10 for each category, with my 11th choices for both making it in. On the comedy side of things, two former nominees way past their creative primes, "Desperate Housewives" and "Scrubs", were snubbed in favor of two first-time contenders, "Family Guy" and "Flight of the Conchords". "Family Guy" has never before been submitted and this category and its inclusion in the top 10 is quite a surprise. I hope it doesn't get nominated. I am, however, ecstatic about "Flight of the Conchords", which really deserves a good shot and I'm happy it got some recognition. On the drama side, one HBO show and one non-HBO cable show are in, just not the ones I thought. Too bad for "The Closer", which I had hoped would get nominated (now I have to change my predictions), and it doesn't mean too much for "In Treatment". "The Tudors" was not included in last year's top ten and may now figure into the race. "The Wire" gets mentioned for the first time, and it's possible that it could get in largely due to the universal acclaim it's always gotten and the measly one nomination it's accrued over four years.
What does this mean for the eventual nominees? I think both "Family Guy" and "Flight of the Conchords" will sit this one out, but there's a chance they could make it in. On the drama side, I would say that the choice of the finale of "The Wire" could hurt it if people aren't familiar enough with the storyline (I have never seen the show - I may be wrong). "The Tudors" may break into the top five. I'll go through individual episodes submitted when I go back through all the categories to make official predictions. At this point, I haven't seen the submitted episodes for "Family Guy", "Ugly Betty", "Friday Night Lights", "Grey's Anatomy", "House", "The Tudors", and "The Wire". I'll be sure to watch as many of them as I can before I make my predictions. From what I know, I'll say that all of the comedies save for "Two and a Half Men" submitted excellently, so it should be a tight race between the original top-ranked seven I predicted. Dramatically speaky, "Damages", "Dexter", "Lost" and "Mad Men" all submitted smartly, but I don't think that the episode chosen by "Boston Legal" bodes as well for that show (at least I hope). It's too preposterous, far more so than last year by any rate. Again, I'll have detailed episode submission analysis soon. Check back for that. My current predictions, which I may revise soon are:
Comedy series (same as before):
CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
ENTOURAGE
THE OFFICE
PUSHING DAISIES
30 ROCK
Drama series:
DAMAGES
DEXTER
GREY'S ANATOMY
HOUSE
MAD MEN
Additional (later) thoughts: Does this impact the other top 10s at all? I don't think it changes my predictions at all, save for the likelihood that Jonathan Rhys-Meyers will make it in for Best Actor. I'm not sure who to bump, though I fear it will be either Eddie Izzard or Bryan Cranston, or maybe even Denis Leary in a surprise snub? It's not certain that all the top 10s will in fact be announced, but I'll post reactions of similar length when there are updates.
2 comments:
My Top Drama Noms-
Mad Men
LOST
Damages
House
Dexter
My Top Comedy Noms-
30 Rock
The Office
Pushing Dasies
Family Guy
Curb Your Enthusiasm
I Really Don't Understand Why You Think LOST Will Not Make The Top 5!
It's not that I don't want "Lost" to make the top five - it's just that it's a show you have to follow to understand what's going on. In my opinion, that's the main reason that two good episodes (and one really great episode!) prevented it from getting nominated the past two years ("Man of Science, Man of Faith" was the submission two years ago I believe, last year was "Through the Looking Glass"). With "The Constant" this year, it's hard to tell, because it's a great episode for those who follow the show (though I didn't love it), but hard to understand why the Desmond/Penny thing is so important.
Out of the drama top 10, I don't watch "Friday Night Lights", "The Tudors", or "The Wire", so I can't comment on those shows. "Damages" and "Mad Men" wisely submitted their pilots so they're good bets because it's easy to get into them. "Grey's Anatomy" and "House" do best, I think, when they submit a good episode representative of their style (though I haven't seen either episode yet), but they'll probably be fine. "Dexter" is one that you do need to follow along with, but not as much with "Lost". Unfortunately, it's quite possible that spot #5 goes to "Boston Legal", even though this year's episode is far too ridiculous. I'd rather predict "Dexter", but I'd be more than happy to see "Lost" overtake either "Grey's Anatomy", "House", or "Damages". Once we (hopefully) start seeing the other top 10s, we should have a better idea of what kind of nominees we'll be looking at.
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