Not eligible: Both from “Damages,” Zeljko Ivanek (no longer on the show) and Ted Danson (in the guest category this year).
Last year’s nominees:
MICHAEL EMERSON as BENJAMIN LINUS, LOST (2 nominations)
Emerson has had a continually prominent role on the past three seasons of “Lost,” and this year, he has a whole bunch of episodes to choose from that showcase his acting abilities. It’s also fun that it’s still up in the air whether Ben’s actually good or bad. Emerson is the biggest lock in this category. The real question is which costar, if any (or multiple), will join him. Any guesses?
WILLIAM SHATNER as DENNY CRANE, BOSTON LEGAL (4 nominations/1 win)
Once perceived as a terrible actor on a popular sci-fi series (Star Trek), Shatner somehow fooled the television academy into thinking he was a good actor. He’s managed consecutive nominations for the entire run of ABC’s preposterous law dramedy, and with the show now off the air, he could make it a round five for the whole series. Unless voters have really tired of the show (and many definitely have), Shatner’s in, for the last time.
JOHN SLATTERY as ROGER STERLING, MAD MEN (1 nomination)
Slattery ended up being the only performer besides lead actor Jon Hamm nominated from breakout hit “Mad Men” last year. He had a storyline involving his deteriorating health and infidelity, and this year he took an occasionally more active role courting the new receptionist and throwing his life in the toilet. I initially thought Slattery might not be back, but he actually had a fuller role this season than last, and has a number of episodes to show it.
The “Lost” guys:
NAVEEN ANDREWS as SAYID, LOST (1 nomination)
Andrews was nominated along with Terry O’Quinn (not submitted this year) for the show’s first season, and made it into the top ten list last year. This season, he’s had a very splintered role, but has pretty much been unequivocally awesome every time he’s appeared on screen. He’s the easy choice for “Lost” devotees to choose a character they’ve always liked and vote for him out of nostalgia and admiration.
JOSH HOLLOWAY as SAWYER, LOST
Holloway is the counterpart to Andrews: an actor who fans love but who has never really been taken seriously by awards bodies. This year, he had a completely changed role that some would even classify as a lead one, and had one shining episode (“LaFleur”) where he got to showcase an unexpected range of emotions and really craft a reformed character. “Lost” has been spotty with its nominees over the past four years, so Holloway may have an uphill battle ahead of him, but he’s earned it.
The “Damages” guys:
WILLIAM HURT as DANIEL PARCELL, DAMAGES
Hurt doesn’t have to do much more than step on set for a minutes to garner a major awards nomination (see his 10-minute performance in “A History of Violence” and corresponding Oscar nomination). This time, he did actually spend a fair amount of time appearing sympathetic, conflicted, corrupt, and then back to conflicted as an old friend and new client of Patty Hewes. Hurt faces tough competition in Emmy’s most crowded category, but he’s a seasoned veteran who should have no trouble intimidating the competition.
TIMOTHY OLYPHANT as WES KRULIK, DAMAGES
The quieter star of HBO’s “Deadwood” baited Ellen Parsons this year before developing a softer side, all the while remaining cool and collected. Olyphant’s role doesn’t seem like one that would lead to an Emmy nomination, but he’s a respected actor who hasn’t really had a role, short of “Deadwood,” to showcase his superb acting talents. His toughest competition is his own costar, Hurt, but that didn’t stop the less famous Zeljko Ivanek from getting nominated alongside, and even beating, Ted Danson last year. Olyphant may get lost in the shuffle, however, given how many contenders there are in this field.
The veterans:
CHRISTIAN CLEMENSON as JERRY ESPENSON, BOSTON LEGAL
Clemenson was nominated twice, and won once, in the guest category for this role. After becoming a regular on the series, he made the top ten runoff but not the final five. The final season of “Boston Legal” makes this his last shot at a nomination, but amidst costar Shatner and a whole sea of contenders from all across the dramatic scope, Clemenson’s wacky character doesn’t quite hold up. He has a chance, but I’d consider it highly unlikely.
JOHN MAHONEY as WALTER, IN TREATMENT
Mahoney starred for years on NBC’s hit sitcom “Frasier,” and managed two nominations during its run. This year, he checked into therapy on HBO’s “In Treatment,” and while I have yet to watch his performance, I’ve heard he’s excellent and should be considered a strong contender. The only thing working against Mahoney was the snub of Blair Underwood last year, as well as the other “In Treatment” patients. Perhaps Emmy voters only like hearing therapists and patients’ fathers? Mahoney should be fine.
The wild card:
NELSAN ELLIS as LAFAYETTE, TRUE BLOOD
Ellis was the comic relief for HBO’s vampire drama’s first season, but his role turned serious midway through the season when his friends and family started getting mixed up with the wrong people (or rather, vampires). Ellis picked up a Satellite award for his performance, beating out the likes of last year’s Emmy winner Zeljko Ivanek, Jimmy Smits, and Harvey Keitel. It isn’t a terribly relevant accomplishment, but others have praised Ellis’ performance and this could be a great way for voters to acknowledge their support for the series without lauding the genre show too overtly in the major categories.
The heavyweights’ supporters:
WALTON GOGGINS as SHANE VENDRELL, THE SHIELD
Vic Mackey’s former right-hand man spent the season outrunning the law and trying desperately to stay one step ahead of Vic while taking care of his family. “The Shield” returned to critics’ radar last season (two Emmy eligibility periods ago), but Goggins and past winner Chiklis failed to make the nominees list. The fact that “The Shield” signed off the air this year, and the incredible way in which the series, and particularly Shane’s storyline, was wrapped up should help Goggins towards a nomination, but I fear he’ll be left out, just missing the mark.
AARON PAUL as JESSE PINKMAM, BREAKING BAD
The high school dropout half of Walter White’s meth-cooking enterprise has been earning stellar raves for his performance on this season of AMC’s breakout drama. He wasn’t discussed much as a contender last year, but with increased screen time devoted to his life and relationships, he has a number of terrific episodes to submit and prove that great supporting actors don’t always come in the same shape and size. Cranston made it all the way to a win last year; Paul has a good chance at a nomination.
The roundup:
With two nominees from last year ineligible (Zeljko Ivanek and Ted Danson from “Damages”), and a past winner not submitted (Terry O’Quinn from “Lost”), the field is wide open. This is an incredibly crowded category, and the above possibilities include many others with half a shot, including any number of “Lost” supporting actors like Jeremy Davies or Henry Ian Cusick, as well as any “Heroes” or “House” cast member voters want to recognize. Additionally, Patrick Dempsey (“Grey’s Anatomy”) is categorized here instead of the lead race for the first time, and while Emmy voters seem to be over the show, this could be his first real shot. Veteran actor Max Von Sydow, rumored to be placed in the guest category, is instead here for “The Tudors” and could get nominated, though the snub of Peter O’Toole for his role on the same show last year doesn’t bode well. Therefore, the nominees will likely include last year’s eligible crop plus any combination of the previously mentioned 2,342 guys. I’m very torn between Holloway or Paul for the last slot, and a tie isn’t out of the question. If I had to pick one…
Current predictions:
MICHAEL EMERSON, LOST
WILLIAM HURT, DAMAGES
JOHN MAHONEY, IN TREATMENT
AARON PAUL, BREAKING BAD
WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL
JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN
Who could win? Michael Emerson
Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
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