Last year’s nominees:
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE as SAMANTHA NEWLY, SAMANTHA WHO (1 nomination)
The star of last year’s breakout ABC comedy, and a past Emmy winner for her guest spot on “Friends,” lost out in this race to the extremely “in” Tina Fey. She was probably second in line for the award, but in the past year, things have changed. Since then, the show’s ratings declined, and it has now been axed by ABC. This is suddenly Applegate’s last shot at claiming recognition for the character of Samantha Newly, who was far less likeable this season. She’s incredibly vulnerable, and may not be able to hold on to her slot.
AMERICA FERRERA as BETTY SUAREZ, UGLY BETTY (2 nominations/1 win)
Critics and fans alike have decried the decline in quality of “Ugly Betty,” and while I’m at a loss to comprehend it, it’s certainly not a good thing for Ferrera. She was huge two years ago when she eclipsed the now-meteoric Tina Fey for the Best Actress trophy, but now she’s in danger of being left off the list on nominees. I still have faith in her, and I think the performance speaks for itself, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her name omitted.
TINA FEY as LIZ LEMON, 30 ROCK (2 nominations/1 win)
The days of questioning whether Fey was actually an actress as opposed to a Larry David-type who doesn’t really “act” are long gone. Fey won this award last year in a likely landslide, in addition to producing and writing trophies. She’s a lock to repeat as a nominee as long as her show stays popular, the question now, as it is for costar Baldwin, is whether she has the episode to win, but that’s a question for a later date.
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS as CHRISTINE CAMPBELL, THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (3 nominations/1 win)
Louis-Dreyfus broke the Seinfeld curse with her Emmy win for the debut season of this hit CBS comedy. She’s continued to return since then, despite dropping off Golden Globe and SAG lists after a year. She’s easily the most vulnerable due to the nature of her show, but she has two factors going for her: voters love “Two and a Half Men,” which is a similar show in style, execution, and sense of humor, and there are people who really, really love this show. I’ll never understand why, but they exist. She may miss the mark, but she could just as easily return for a fourth nomination.
MARY-LOUISE PARKER as NANCY BOTWIN, WEEDS (2 nominations)
After being snubbed for the first year of Showtime’s comedy, Parker has been nominated the past two years. The second and third years weren’t so well received critically, but the fourth season has seen a major overhaul of the show and a location and plot transplant. Even if the show isn’t beloved in its new form, there’s no denying the effort Parker has put in to maintain this frazzled character of Nancy, who took the saying “in over my head” to new levels this year. She should be safe.
The newbies:
BILLIE PIPER as HANNAH, SECRET DIARY OF A CALL GIRL
Piper crossed over to American audiences via Showtime, which imported the first two seasons of this British series. Piper is the entire show, and if voters can get past the theme and her accent, she may have a fighting chance. It’s hard to gauge how awards bodies feel about her since both seasons of the show aired during the current eligibility period and the series wasn’t eligible for the Golden Globes. Additionally, Showtime was initially campaigning this as a drama, where Piper would have had no shot. I think she’ll do fine.
AMY POEHLER as LESLIE KNOPE, PARKS & RECREATION
Poehler surprised last year with a Supporting Actress nomination for her newly-recategorized work on “Saturday Night Live.” Now, she’s back with her own show, which NBC saw fit to renew for a second season after a six-episode first round. For each one of her proponents (myself included), there are just as many people who aren’t ready to put their faith in the show yet, and that could keep Poehler from making the final cut.
The housewives:
MARCIA CROSS as BREE HODGE, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (1 nomination)
There wasn’t much to laugh about when it came to Bree on this flash-forwarded season of “Desperate Housewives,” especially towards the end when she contended with a down-spiraling, thieving husband. Bree wasn’t featured prominently this year, with no real ties to the rest of the housewives. Nonetheless, her ejection from the list of nominees is unlike the other housewives. The show suffered an enormous backlash from Emmy voters in its second season, and Cross sat most of the third season out due to her real-life pregnancy. She’s only had one shot to get back on the list, and didn’t manage it last year, but with an extra slot in this category, she could do better than most expect.
FELICITY HUFFMAN as LYNETTE SCAVO, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (2 nominations/1 win)
After Huffman pulled off a surprising victory over costars Cross and Teri Hatcher for the first season, she sat out the second year and returned alone for the third. This year, she’s had a lot to do, and would probably be the most likely of all the housewives to return to the lineup. It is a crowded category full of far more comedic performances, and I think Emmy voters are over “Desperate Housewives.” The show didn’t even crack the top ten list for Best Comedy Series last year, and even with Huffman as its best shot, the odds don’t look good.
EVA LONGORIA PARKER as GABRIELLE SOLIS, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES
The only lead housewife never to be nominated has been the one earning the most praise in recent years, especially this year as the actress transformed her character into a (slightly) more mature mother of two. The transformation was short-lived, and the quality of the show wasn’t high enough to really elevate Parker’s character at all. There’s often some actress who gets left out of Emmy lineups, and sometimes they manage a nomination for a show’s final season (Kristin Davis for “Sex and the City”) and sometimes they don’t (Courtney Cox for “Friends”). It’s too early to tell at this point, but Parker should at least garner some support.
The wildcards:
ANNA FRIEL as CHUCK, PUSHING DAISIES
The quirky dead girl from the now-dead show earned a spot in the top ten list for this category last year, but didn’t manage a nomination. This year, the competition is stiffer with two new actresses in the running and everyone from last year still around. I think the ship has sailed for Friel and the Emmys, and she’ll have to settle for the big new roles she’s getting, like the one opposite Will Ferrell in the film “The Land of the Lost.”
SARAH SILVERMAN as HERSELF, THE SARAH SILVERMAN PROGRAM
Silverman is offensive, to be sure; it’s just a question of how funny Emmy voters find it. Last year, she made the top 10 runoff, but didn’t get any further. I’m not sure much has changed between now and then, and I imagine Silverman will continue to almost make it for a while. Consider her a longshot who may someday surprise.
The roundup:
It’s a semi-crowded field where the only truly safe bet is Tina Fey, but it’s unlikely that all four of the other nominees from last year will be summarily dumped. The housewives shouldn’t have too much influence, and there aren’t really many other contenders (the category-misplaced Judy Reyes would be a huge shock if she made it in for “Scrubs”). I’m putting my money, somewhat unwisely, on both of the new girls to make it in.
Current predictions:
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE, SAMANTHA WHO?
AMERICA FERRERA, UGLY BETTY
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
MARY-LOUISE PARKER, WEEDS
BILLIE PIPER, SECRET DIARY OF A CALL GIRL
AMY POEHLER, PARKS & RECREATION
Who could win? Amy Poehler
Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
No comments:
Post a Comment