Last year’s nominees:
JON CRYER as ALAN HARPER, TWO AND A HALF MEN (3 nominations)
Charlie’s whiny chiropractor brother has been included on the Emmy ballot for the past three years, and it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere, as “Two and a Half Men” continues to be a comedy leader on television and Cryer’s Alan makes people laugh. He could be vulnerable to an inevitable “Two and a Half Men” backlash, but they aren’t enough solid contenders to compete with him to knock with him out, especially with an extra slot this year.
KEVIN DILLON as JOHNNY DRAMA, ENTOURAGE (2 nominations)
After scoring a nomination two years ago, Dillon surprised many by proving that it wasn’t a one-time thing when he returned to the ballot last year. Dillon didn’t have nearly as much to do on this season of “Entourage,” and his show wasn’t terribly good either. With so many other comic actors who work harder than Dillon, it’s a wonder he’s been back for two rounds, and I suspect he’ll return for a third only because he’s an easy name to check off, though he could be ousted by any number of new candidates who have never been nominated for an Emmy.
NEIL PATRICK HARRIS as BARNEY STINSON, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER (2 nominations)
The amusing/hilarious Neil Patrick Harris (whose IMDB page comes up immediately if you search for “NPH” – I found that very cool) is still the real star of CBS’ Monday night sitcom. His costar Jason Segel wasn’t even submitted for Emmy consideration this year, so Harris is pretty much the safest lock behind the guy who’s beat him for the past two years. He was probably the runner-up last year, and may even have a chance at winning this time around.
JEREMY PIVEN as ARI GOLD, ENTOURAGE (4 nominations/3 wins)
Piven has been nominated for every season of the HBO comedy’s run, and he has managed a stunning three consecutive wins, largely due to his stellar episode submissions and relative lack of competition. While his show took a dive this year, he still had some great moments, whether it was contemplating a new job or smoking mushrooms in the middle of the desert. He’s back in for sure, and I’m fairly confident he’ll score a fourth win this time.
RAINN WILSON as DWIGHT SCHRUTE, THE OFFICE (2 nominations)
The assistant to the regional manager of Dunder-Mifflin this season had the opportunity to try to keep his boss from stealing his old clients and fight to defend the honor of his office romance. It’s been a pretty standard season for Dwight, and the fact that Wilson has been nominated for the past two years without terribly strong episodes means that he should be fine this year, although he may have another “Office” mates with whom to contend…
The perpetual snubbees…
JUSTIN KIRK as ANDY BOTWIN, WEEDS
The wacky brother-in-law of the pot dealing mom really lit up the first season of Showtime’s comedy series when he arrived midway through the first season, and he scored a Golden Globe nomination to prove it. Since then, he’s been on Emmy’s radar with a top ten placement last year, but still no nomination. The Satellite Awards gave him a promotion to lead actor this year and he walked away with a win in that category. The trouble is, this year Kirk’s been just as good but had more a dramatic role, and is that where Emmy voters will finally spot him? I’m not so sure.
JOHN KRASINSKI as JIM HALPERT, THE OFFICE
It’s a mystery to me that Krasinski has been trounced the past two years when I was confident that he would make the Emmy list. Last year it could just have been that unexpected support for Kevin Dillon beat out votes for Krasinski, but this year there’s an extra spot. Krasinski has been good this year, but it’s no different than past years when he was shut out. Could it happen again? I’m afraid so. I think I’ll predict him anyway, partially because it’s so unlikely that he could go the show’s entire run and never get nominated, but it’s getting closer every year.
JOHN C. MCGINLEY as DR. PERRY COX, SCRUBS
McGinley has been calling Zach Braff girls’ name for eight years now, and this past season he ascended to Chief of Medicine at Sacred Heart Hospital. It’s a real shame that McGinley never once, over the course of seven years, got nominated for a single Emmy, though “Scrubs” didn’t really catch on with Emmy voters much throughout its run, with the exception of the fourth and fifth season, which scored nominations for best series and one for lead actor Braff. The fact that this may be McGinley’s last shot may help him, but the news that “Scrubs” will be back once again for another season diminishes the “last chance” factor that might have helped McGinley get that many-times-overdue nomination.
Those crazy “30 Rock” kids:
JACK MCBRAYER as KENNETH THE PAGE, 30 ROCK
NBC’s resident tour guide and seeming assistant to everyone who works at 30 Rockefeller Plaza is one of the most entertaining parts of NBC’s offbeat comedy. McBrayer made the top ten last year, when I wrote that “30 Rock” had become even more popular than the year before. That’s true ever more so this year, but McBrayer’s somewhat decreased role and increased hysterics may not do him any favors. He’ll probably come close, but I don’t expect this to be the year he gets nominated.
TRACY MORGAN as TRACY JORDAN, 30 ROCK
Morgan, on the other hand, who also made the top ten last year, probably has a great shot this year. His character has become a bit more tame and relatable while still remaining hilarious. He has a brilliant episode that is one hundred times better than last year’s, where he challenges Liz Lemon’s charge that everyone should be treated equally and ends up trying to act serious and getting bored. The real Morgan is just as crazy as his character, so Emmy voters may be wary of recognizing him, but he has a great shot.
Second chance/last chance/who knows:
RHYS DARBY as MURRAY, FLIGHT OF THE CONCHORDS
The manager of Bret and Jemaine’s band didn’t make the top ten last year, but his show made a surprising showing in the writing and directing categories as well as earning a top ten placement in the Best Comedy Series category. “Flight of the Conchords” seems to have been a failed experiment, cancelled after only two short seasons on HBO, so this is Darby’s last chance to earn recognition as Murray. He has a terrific episode, where he creates friend graphs to chart his relationship with the band members, but I just think he’s too low-profile and unknown. His inclusion would be pretty damn cool, though.
CHI MCBRIDE as EMERSON COD, PUSHING DAISIES
McBride was unexpectedly omitted from the top ten list in this category last year, despite all three of his castmates making it onto their respective lists (and two getting nominated). The usually stoic McBride has been especially entertaining on this, the last season of “Pushing Daisies,” and has several episodes from which to choose – like chasing after his ex-wife or receiving a note in his Chinese food – and if voters don’t completely disown the show, he might have a decent chance. From the trailer for “Human Target,” it looks like McBride is already on to similar roles, though not quite as carefree or entertaining as this one, so Emmy voters should wise up and recognize him sooner rather than later.
The roundup:
This category is a standalone example for two major reasons: the past two years have yielded the exact same list of five nominees, and, as such, there are no past nominees in this category whose shows are still on who could compete for this award. Therefore, the sixth contender will definitely be a fresh face, and some of last year’s nominees might not be back, like Kevin Dillon. It’s a complete crapshoot to determine who the new face(s) will be because there’s no history to examine. John Krasinski and Justin Kirk have likely been runner-ups in the past few years, but the increasing popularity of “30 Rock” may favor Tracy Morgan and Jack McBrayer. Though there are other actors on their shows with better chances, both Ed Helms (The Office) and Donald Faison (Scrubs) could manage a substantial number of votes. Additionally, there’s a whole host of “SNL” guys who are eligible, including Seth Meyers, Andy Samberg, Jason Sudeikis. It’s going to be an interesting race with, if I’m correct, uninteresting results.
Current predictions:
JON CRYER, TWO AND A HALF MEN
KEVIN DILLON, ENTOURAGE
NEIL PATRICK HARRIS, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE
Who could win? Jeremy Piven
Next up: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
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