Last year’s nominees:
CANDICE BERGEN as SHIRLEY SCHMIDT, BOSTON LEGAL (2 nominations)
Five-time Emmy winner Bergen, for her work on the comedy series “Murphy Brown,” has been nominated every time she’s been eligible for this award. She didn’t appear in enough episodes during the first season, and withdrew her name from consideration for the third season before mysteriously reentering herself last year and scoring a nomination. “Boston Legal” is now off the air, and Bergen will likely be back with a smart episode submission, although she’s vulnerable because there are so many fresh contenders in this category. It seems, especially based on last year’s top ten list, that well-known veteran actresses do well here.
RACHEL GRIFFITHS as SARAH WHEDON, BROTHERS & SISTERS (2 nominations)
Griffiths has been nominated for the past two years for her standout work among a large ensemble on ABC’s family drama. She’s also a past nominee for “Six Feet Under,” and likely isn’t going anywhere unless voters forget about her show, which isn’t too far outside the realm of possibility. Recently, Griffiths has been nominated in the far more competitive corresponding Golden Globes category, where drama series, comedy series, miniseries, and TV movies are all mixed together, and clearly she has many ardent fans. I strongly suspect she’ll be back.
SANDRA OH as DR. CRISTINA YANG, GREY’S ANATOMY (4 nominations)
Oh is the only actress from her show who has been nominated for its entire run, even its shortened first year that failed to garner much awards attention. The show fell out of favor with Emmy voters in the series category last year, and Oh probably barely squeaked by with an episode that didn’t really showcase much acting talent. She faces heavy internal competition in addition to other shows with multiple contenders like “In Treatment” and “Lost.” Oh, despite having the longest history with the Emmys, is the most vulnerable and will probably miss the mark this year.
DIANNE WIEST as GINA, IN TREATMENT (1 nomination/1 win)
Last year’s winner was a no-show at the awards, but she’s a powerhouse respected actress who’s taken home two Oscars in addition to her Emmy from last year. Along with fellow nominees from last year Gabriel Byrne and Glynn Turman, she’s the only “In Treatment” cast member who returned for the show’s second season, and should have no problem getting nominated again. Last year, she beat out critics’ pick Mia Wasikowska and fellow Golden Globe nominee Melissa George from her own show, and while the show’s new ladies have earned just as much praise, she should be at the head of the pack for Emmy voters.
CHANDRA WILSON as DR. MIRANDA BAILEY, GREY’S ANATOMY (3 nominations)
Wilson hasn’t won an Emmy yet, but she’s remained on the list of nominees for the past three years for her portrayal of a no-nonsense doctor on ABC’s primetime medical soap. Wilson has shown Bailey’s emotional side in previous years and charmed sympathetic Emmy voters, whose enthusiasm for the show decreased last year when it failed to make the cut for Best Drama Series. Wilson is probably the strongest of her show’s cast members in terms of likelihood of a nomination, but the influx of new and renewed blood in this category and the waning support for her show may diminish her chances considerably.
Past winners, back with a vengeance:
KATHERINE HEIGL as DR. IZZIE STEVENS (1 nomination/1 win)
After winning this award in 2007, Heigl controversially did not submit her name for consideration last year, claiming the material she had to work with didn’t merit an award. Candice Bergen returned to the list of nominees after not submitting herself, but her circumstance wasn’t nearly as public or despised. Also, Heigl already won this award and those who feel she is deserving may feel they’ve rewarded her enough in the past. This season of “Grey’s Anatomy” has reportedly given her the chance to show much dramatic range, which could help, as could her continually growing movie star status. It’s a toss of the coin, but I think that the negative will win over the positive and Heigl will be left out.
Close, but no cigar:
ROSE BYRNE as ELLEN PARSONS, DAMAGES
Last year’s most shocking snub left the unarguably lead actress of FX’s legal thriller out in the cold. It’s a clear ploy to avoid competition with Glenn Close, but Byrne is most certainly not a supporting actress. The second season of “Damages” hasn’t been through an awards season yet, and while Close is safe, the show may not be, and I think that Byrne’s poor classification will keep her out of the running in any case, as well as internal competition from another Oscar-winning cast member, Marcia Gay Harden.
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS as JOAN HOLLOWAY, MAD MEN
Hendricks made the top ten runoff list last year over buzzed-about costar January Jones, but failed to get nominated despite the extreme popularity of her show. The series has become even bigger this past year, and Joan got a larger role as she found herself a fiancée and struggled to maintain dominance over the office secretaries. Now Jones has been promoted to the lead category, but that may not mean anything for Hendricks, who didn’t make the final cut last year, and will probably come just as close this year.
Fresh faces:
MARCIA GAY HARDEN as CLAIRE MADDOX, DAMAGES
Oscar winner Harden just picked up a Tony for her latest play, and it looks like an Emmy may be on the horizon. Harden was one of several high-profile stars cast on the second season of “Damages,” and her conflicted lawyer proved to be a smaller part than perhaps anticipated, but she gave it her all and individual episodes will show the strength of the performance. Two “Damages” guys got into the supporting actor category last year, so Harden should have no problem making it in, even if costar Byrne isn’t as fortunate.
ALLISON PILL as APRIL, IN TREATMENT
I haven’t yet had a chance to see Pill in action, but I’ve heard great things. Her role as one of Paul Weston’s new patients on “In Treatment” has garnered her terrific buzz, and the show clearly got Emmy’s attention last year with nominations for Gabriel Byrne’s Paul and his therapist Dianne Wiest. The patients, however, didn’t do so well, and the relatively unknown Pill may suffer the same fate that relative unknown Mia Wasikowska did last year – fall victim to a category that emphasizes big roles and big names, not breakout performers.
The hopefuls:
ELIZABETH MITCHELL as JULIET, LOST
Two years ago, Mitchell was a sure thing for her performance of the duplicitous Other who defected and romanced Jack. Shockingly, she didn’t even make the top ten list. After a diminished role last season, she was far more prominent this year in a highly transformative and far more likeable role. The show bounced back last year to return to the Best Drama Series category for the first time since its freshman season victory, and having it in favor will do well for Mitchell’s chances. Unfortunately, competition is likely too stiff and Mitchell is a risky spoiler at best.
CCH POUNDER as CLAUDETTE WYMS, THE SHIELD (1 nomination)
Pounder got her one and only nomination for FX’s gritty cop show when the series regained some popularity in its fourth season due to Glenn Close joining the show. Now, Close is elsewhere and has two actresses from her series who will contend against Pounder, and “The Shield” aired its final episode back in November. Pounder was a force to be reckoned with, and was the only verified “Shield” cast member to make any top ten list two years ago, so it’s possible that she was very close and could pull off a nomination this year, but it seems like there are simply too many contenders.
The roundup:
The above list can’t hope to capture all of the possibilities. Take, for instance, the additional top ten finalists from last year who clearly garnered enough votes to almost get nominated: Jill Clayburgh (Dirty Sexy Money), Sharon Gless (Burn Notice) and S. Epatha Merkerson (Law & Order); also factor in Hope Davis (In Treatment) and Yunjin Kim (Lost), who may outshine their respective costars who I’ve mentioned above, and then throw in two “24” ladies (Cherry Jones and Annie Wersching) and one silly hopeful in Katee Sackhoff (Battlestar Galactica), and you have a crazy mess that will likely churn out a boring list half made up of “Grey’s Anatomy” actresses. We’ll see.
Current predictions:
CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL
RACHEL GRIFFITHS, BROTHERS & SISTERS
MARCIA GAY HARDEN, DAMAGES
ELIZABETH MITCHELL, LOST
ALLISON PILL, IN TREATMENT
DIANNE WIEST, IN TREATMENT
Who could win? Dianne Wiest
Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
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