Last year’s nominees:
GABRIEL BYRNE as PAUL WESTON, IN TREATMENT (1 nomination)
The star of HBO’s daily therapy drama was one of three actors from his show nominated for its freshman season, and the other two (Dianne Wiest and Glynn Turman) took home awards. Since then, Byrne has picked up a Golden Globe for his performance and returned for a highly acclaimed season of the series with all-new patients. His show is held in high regard, and while some of his patients in the supporting category could miss out (like Blair Underwood last year), Byrne’s placement is probably assured.
BRYAN CRANSTON as WALT WHITE, BREAKING BAD (1 nomination/1 win)
Cranston was the surprise winner as high school chemistry teacher-turned-meth cooker for the debut season of last year’s other breakout AMC show. The series has only improved and received more notice since then, even garnering buzz for Cranston’s co-star, Aaron Paul. Already a three-time nominee for his comedic work on “Malcolm in the Middle,” Cranston continues to earn rave reviews for his performance and should return to the list of nominees, and may even repeat as the winner. The elimination of judging panels may do damage to less mainstream series, but Cranston should be safe.
MICHAEL C. HALL as DEXTER MORGAN, DEXTER (1 nomination)
After being shockingly snubbed for the first season of Showtime’s drama with a twisted sense of humor, Hall made it into last year’s lineup for his portrayal of blood spatter expert by day/serial killer by night Dexter Morgan. The show even cracked the Best Drama Series lineup. The trouble is, both categories already had an extra nominee, so the addition of a sixth nominee this year doesn’t help their cases, especially with past winners like Kiefer Sutherland and Michael Chiklis eligible again. Still, Hall’s performance was just as terrific even if the show slipped a bit, and he should be back.
JON HAMM as DON DRAPER, MAD MEN (1 nomination)
It would be pretty shocking if the star of the most acclaimed show on television missed out on a nomination for its even more positively-reviewed second season. The popularity of “Mad Men” has soared since its relatively quiet win for Best Drama Series last year, and Hamm continues to turn in an astounding performance week after week. He’s probably the safest of all the contenders. It’s only a matter of which episode he chooses to determine whether he’ll prevail as the winner.
HUGH LAURIE as DR. GREGORY HOUSE, HOUSE (3 nominations)
Laurie has made it into this category for three out of four of the FOX medical drama’s seasons. His cranky doctor is still making the rounds even as people question the quality of the series and its revolving door of exiting characters. The year Laurie got left off the list was a fluke due to a change in voting procedures, and this year’s new rules should only make the ever-popular Laurie all the more in vogue.
JAMES SPADER as ALAN SHORE, BOSTON LEGAL (3 nominations/2 wins)
Since hopping onboard “The Practice” for its final season, Spader has been nominated four out of the last five years, and taken home three trophies. His silly series even managed to get nominated for Best Drama Series for the past two years, and it’s now over, facing recognition for its fifth and final season. This is Spader’s last chance to collect an Emmy for his portrayal of the ethically challenged, preposterousness-prone Alan Shore, and chances are, voters won’t leave him without a decent shot at the win. His potential handicap is the enormous wave of backlash against recognition of this show that always creeps up post-nominations, which could do damage if it permeates earlier on in the voting process.
Past winners, eligible once more:
MICHAEL CHIKLIS as VIC MACKEY, THE SHIELD (2 nominations/1 win)
Chiklis made history in 2002 as the first actor to win for a basic-cable series. He only stayed on Emmy’s list for one year after that, but his series remained consistent up until its last breath this past November. The final season has already been recognized by the Television Critics Asssociation, and the impressiveness of Chiklis’ performance as corrupt cop Vic Mackey could enable him to return to the list of nominees. Voters will really have to open up their minds to letting Chiklis back in, and his costar Walton Goggins may fare better in the supporting category.
KIEFER SUTHERLAND as JACK BAUER, 24 (6 nominations/1 win)
Sutherland bares the rare, distinguished honor of having been nominated for every season thus far of FOX’s real-time thriller. He won for the show’s fifth season and even managed a nomination when the series, which also won, failed to make the lineup the following year. “24” skipped last calendar year because of the strike, and now season seven is once again eligible. Sutherland was likely hanging on for dear life with his barely-managed nomination last time, but then again, Jack Bauer’s known for coming through in the midst of deadly, unlikely circumstances.
Resurgent past nominees:
DENIS LEARY as TOMMY GAVIN, RESCUE ME (2 nominations)
Voters caught wind of Leary’s searing performance as a volatile New York firefighter after the show’s second season, and abandoned him almost as quickly after one repeat nomination. The show did take a dive in quality when it aired its fourth season almost two years ago, but Leary has been on fire the past few weeks, and the show’s return to quality may propel him back to the forefront. And even though Leary missed out last time to clear the way for four newcomers, he still managed a nomination for his very swear-filled work in HBO’s TV movie “Recount.” Emmy voters have hardly forgotten about him.
Potential overdue recognition:
KYLE CHANDLER as COACH ERIC TAYLOR, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Chandler has made the top ten runoff list for the past two years for his portrayal of a coach on NBC’s football drama. The show never really took off with Emmy voters, notoriously snubbing costar Connie Britton over the past two years as well. Despite the recent renewal of the show for two additional seasons, the move to DirecTV and consistently nonexistent buzz should keep Chandler out of the running, even if he does manage to scrape together a few healthy votes.
MATTHEW FOX as JACK SHEPARD, LOST
Fox made the top ten list early on in the history of “Lost” and then got left off last year. The show returned to the Best Drama Series lineup for the first time since its first season victory last year, and the critically perceived critical resurgence seems to have stuck. The problem with Fox getting recognized now is that many argue that Josh Holloway (Sawyer) has a bigger lead role this season and deserves more recognition. Consider Fox paired with Chandler to round out the top twelve contenders.
EDWARD JAMES OLMOS as COMMANDER WILLIAM ADAMA, BATTLESTAR GALACTICA
For the past two years, “Battlestar Galcatica” has made subtle appearances on the Emmy nominations list, with nods for directing and writing, and a top ten placement for costar Mary McDonnell last year. Olmos has likely never made it terribly close, but his performance in Battlestar’s final season should put him up for consideration, and it’s possible that some wonderful loophole in the new system would allow him to snag a shocking nomination. McDonnell’s chances are likely better.
The roundup:
It’s a tricky category because all six nominees from last year are eligible, and not one of them has really diminished in any sense since then. James Spader’s “Boston Legal” just aired its final season, but the other five are all ripe to come back. The fact that a tie produced a sixth nominee last year means that the same exact lineup could be back this year. Watch out for Kiefer Sutherland to crack that list, and I’m pulling for Michael Chiklis or Edward James Olmos, but I can’t pick any one of last year’s six nominees to swap for any of them.
Current predictions:
GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT
BRYAN CRANSTON, BREAKING BAD
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
JON HAMM, MAD MEN
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL
Who could win? Jon Hamm
Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
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