Last year’s nominees:
BOSTON LEGAL (2 nominations)
I still can’t understand how this show came to be regarded as the best of anything, especially after its genre-jumping stunt at the SAG Awards where it was nominated in the comedy categories one year and the drama categories the next. I’ve come to accept the inevitability of its nomination, and can only hope that the fact that this was the last season of the show means that support has in fact died out and it might be snubbed. If only.
DAMAGES (1 nomination)
FX’s Glenn Close-led legal thriller would have been the major Emmy story of last year if not for another immensely popular freshman basic cable series. “Damages” aired its second season this past spring, and it will almost certainly be back for a second chance at the Emmy for Best Drama Series, though it’s always possible that voters won’t have enjoyed the second season as much as the first. I imagine it will be back, though the Emmys do have a history of giving up on FX stars early on (Michael Chiklis, Denis Leary). I wonder if they’ll treat their shows the same way.
DEXTER (1 nomination)
The placement of season two of Showtime’s clever serial killer series in this category was regarded as quite a shock – and it’s that kind of thinking that may get the show snubbed so soon after it was welcomed in by the voting bloc. The addition of Jimmy Smits to the cast in the show’s third season should help it out, and I think the show probably will be back, but, like last year, it’s going to be a tight race. This year, six nominees are allowed, so the inclusion of “Dexter” may be a bit more comfortable this time around.
HOUSE (3 nominations)
FOX’s quirky medical mystery drama has scored three times in the past three years, missing a nomination only for the show’s freshman season. Those are pretty good odds to set up a continuing streak, but procedurals (Law & Order, NYPD Blue) and medical shows (ER) are often dismissed midway through their runs when voters either tire of them or become more excited about something else. The latter is a very threatening possibility here, and those who decry the downfall of the show due to absurd plotlines and character exists this season certainly aren’t helping matters.
LOST (2 nominations/1 win)
“Lost” made an impressive comeback last year after sitting out its second and third seasons following a win for its first. This season, the show has been immensely popular with fans and (I believe) well-liked by critics. Its constant quality should diminish the need for a specific constant (anyone?) to aid it towards another nomination. The one major worry, as was true in seasons two and three, is that the show is extremely inaccessible to new viewers, especially this year. The show can probably coast purely on its popularity.
MAD MEN (1 nomination/1 win)
Last year’s critically-lauded 1960s advertising drama returned for an even more favorably-reviewed second season, and voters are sure to embrace it once again, likely more whole-heartedly this time. AMC’s series isn’t leaving this lineup anytime soon, considering the hype for the show’s third season and the general feeling of awe most people get from watching it. Expect it to be back here again, and also for its creators to end up on stage when the award is given out.
Past nominees:
24 (5 nominations/1 win)
FOX’s real-time thriller scored nominations for each of its first five seasons and hit the jackpot on the fifth try. The sixth season was a critical mess, and the show failed to make the cut. The following year, the strike delayed the show’s seventh season from last year’s Emmy ceremony to the current one. Emmy voters have a decent enough memory – they nominated “Curb Your Enthusiasm” for its past five seasons despite it taking a break twice, in 2005 and 2007 – but if the show’s quality hasn’t improved, the series is out of luck. I don’t think it has, but many do; either way, I don’t think it will make the top six.
Sophomore possibilities:
BREAKING BAD
AMC launched one overwhelmingly popular show in the summer of 2007, and added another during the same television season in spring 2008. That show was “Breaking Bad,” which scored a directing nomination and won Bryan Cranston a lead actor Emmy award last year over the star of that other show. This year, the show has really come into its own, with additional episodes (12 this year over 7 last year) and has been receiving rave reviews. It may be too dark for Emmy’s taste, but consider it a threatening dark horse.
IN TREATMENT
HBO’s 43-episode therapy drama didn’t do as well as it could have last year, earning three acting nominations and two wins. This year, 35 episodes and a fresh cast (plus all three of last year’s nominees) could garner more respect for the show. The series still isn’t terribly popular or well-known, and the elimination of top ten lists will hurt the show’s chances, although it didn’t even make that cut last year. “In Treatment” is another dark horse possibility, but it’s an iffy prediction at best.
New…blood:
TRUE BLOOD
HBO’s vampire series wrapped its first season to very positive critical reviews and a Golden Globe win for star Anna Paquin. SAG voters completed ignored the show, and its genre nature may hinder its Emmy chances. Nonetheless, it’s a show on HBO, which is a plus, and it’s from creator Alan Ball, whose last series, “Six Feet Under,” earned three Best Drama Series nominations and racked up a staggering 20 regular and guest acting nominations over the course of four Emmy cycles. “True Blood” is just as fascinating, and Paquin has a great shot, but Emmy voters probably aren’t ready for the show just yet.
No chance like a last chance:
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA
This update of the campy 1970s series has been recognized in small ways over the past two years by Emmy voters. Writing and directing nominations two years ago led to the top ten placement of lead actress Mary McDonnell last year. The series went out with a spectacular final season, and has a huge fan base, some of whom may not even be geeks. BSG has history on its side – similarly sci-fi series “Star Trek: The Next Generation” earned a nomination for Best Drama Series for its final season. Could this happen? It would be incredible.
THE SHIELD
FX’s breakthrough crime series won Michael Chiklis an Emmy for its first season back in 2002, and since then, the show has earned only one nomination apiece for Chiklis, Glenn Close, and CCH Pounder. The show received terrific comeback-style reviews last year (even though its quality never decreased) and missed the mark, but the series is now over, and overwhelming support could help it towards a spoiler nomination. Voters never rewarded “The Wire,” which earned ever better reviews, so maybe they’ll make up for their mistake?
The roundup:
Last year’s list is good to go, and all six shows could easily return to this lineup. I can’t see any one show that’s weak enough to drop out or strong enough to break in, and therefore I fear we’ll see the exact same lineup. Other contenders not mentioned above include two that made it close in previous years (“Big Love” and “Friday Night Lights”), two former nominees that could return (“ER” and “Grey’s Anatomy”) and one new show that could come out of left field but won’t (“Crash”). If I had to pick an alternate, I’d posit that the first announced nominee will start with “Battlestar” instead of “Boston.” Wouldn’t that be the day.
Current predictions:
BOSTON LEGAL
DAMAGES
DEXTER
HOUSE
LOST
MAD MEN
Who could win? Mad Men
Next Up: Best Comedy Series
1 comment:
Come on, "Emmys"! Nominate "Galactica". It's deserved it for the longest time, and will go down as one of the greatest shows ever. They won't, though.
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