Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Drama Series

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often indicates how well new shows will fare. This category combines performance in the lead and supporting categories for an odd assortment of nominees which really varies from year to year.

Last year’s nominees:
JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE (winner)
JAMES GANDOLFINI, THE SOPRANOS
KIEFER SUTHERLAND, 24

This year’s top contenders:
WILLIAM SHATNER, BOSTON LEGAL
Proof of why I hate “Boston Legal” can be found here. Shatner actually has no previous nominations in this category, but he was nominated two years ago for this performance in the Best Actor in a Comedy Series category. How a show can go from being comedy one year to drama the next is inexplicable, and I only place Shatner’s name here because I know from previous experience that he should not be discounted.

JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL
Spader has one nomination from last year in this category, and one two years ago in the corresponding comedy category. I thought people were over him, but his Emmy win indicates otherwise. Sadly, there is not much competition this year, and so Spader could easily slide back in for his smarmy portrayal of the “ethically challenged” Alan Shore.

MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
I would call him a lock, but somehow Hall missed out on an almost assured Emmy nomination, so his place in any awards show is at risk. Hall in my mind has only gotten better, but I know “Dexter” has some critics this season who feel he is showing too much emotion as compared with last year. I think if he makes it in he could win this year.

PETER KRAUSE, DIRTY SEXY MONEY
I do not think it is a showy enough performance, but Krause has history in this category for “Six Feet Under”. While Donald Sutherland could pose a threat, I think Krause maintains a very stable presence on the show in the midst of such absurdity that his fellow actors may want to recognize him for it.

PATRICK DEMPSEY, GREY’S ANATOMY
I think Dempsey is old news, especially with what I have been hearing about “Grey’s Anatomy” this season. They liked him two years ago, but I think “Grey’s Anatomy” has passed its prime.

HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
Why not, right? I do not feel I need to say any more. When people love the actor and the role, it is hard to stop nominating them for awards. I just wish I enjoyed Laurie’s performance more.

EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES
Izzard stunned me with his fierce, unrelenting portrayal of Wayne Malloy on the new FX drama. His charm failed to work with Emmy voters, but I think relatively little competition here should help Izzard. History is not in Izzard’s favor, however, as FX has managed only one nomination in the drama/comedy series category, back in 2002, for Michael Chiklis. Hopefully Izzard and co-star Minnie Driver can change that.

WALTON GOGGINS, THE SHIELD
Speaking of FX stars with absolutely no shot, here is one for the wish list. Goggins delivered a terrific performance on this season of “The Shield” and has failed thus far to receive much credit. Supporting actors in this category in particular are sparse, with only one supporting star from either “The West Wing” or “The Sopranos” ever making it in (Alan Alda two years ago for the former). Goggins has an uphill battle ahead of him, but I will be staunchly supporting him.

JAMES GANDOLFINI, THE SOPRANOS
Gandolfini dropped off Emmy and Golden Globe lists in the past few years, but the one place he has never faltered is here. With six nods and two wins to his name, I sincerely doubt that Gandolfini will be left off in the show’s final year. He has also never had so little internal competition, since the only other male star with a real shot (Michael Imperioli) had a very limited role this season.

KIEFER SUTHERLAND, 24
Sutherland has been going strong, with five consecutive nominations and two wins over that period. He even managed an Emmy nomination for a dreadful season of “24”. In any other year, I would say he had no shot, but there are relatively few competitors who might force him out. He is at worst a close runner-up for the shortlist.

Current predictions:
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES
WALTON GOGGINS, THE SHIELD
JAMES GANDOLFINI, THE SOPRANOS