SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Drama Series

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often indicates how well new shows will fare. This category combines performance in the lead and supporting categories for an odd assortment of nominees which really varies from year to year.

Last year’s nominees:
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY (winner)
MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, MEDIUM
EDIE FALCO, THE SOPRANOS

This year’s top contenders:
SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS
While I had hoped that Field would not figure into awards race after her Emmy nomination, her Emmy win seems to solidify her chances. With the SAG Awards in particular, she has a previous nomination in this category for what was essentially a guest spot on “ER” as far as I know back in 2000. Count Field in.

KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
Her performance just keeps getting better on the show. Actresses often make it in one year and not the next, only to return the following year, but I think Sedgwick’s performance is solid enough that she should continue to make it in without interruption.

GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES
I do not think the role is worthy of any awards, but FX’s stunning renewal of the show for two more seasons means that someone really does like it. Close did not make it in at the SAG Awards for his stint on “The Shield” two years ago, which might indicate that her FX roles do not do it for SAG voters. That may not be true, especially since Close’s role on “Damages” is starkly different from her role on “The Shield”.

CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY
With the way things are going, it would seem to be Katherine Heigl’s turn, after Wilson’s nomination last year, and Sandra Oh’s the year before. Emmy voters recognized all three women this year, but I think more than one at the SAGs is pushing it. Wilson is likely the most respected, but from the episodes I watched, Oh has the best role. In any case, I think “Grey’s Anatomy” will miss out a nomination in every category at the SAG Awards this year.

MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU
It was Hargitay’s nomination in this category in 2003 that got her started with frequent awards nominations. She has been nominated three out of the past four years, and barring heavy competition, I believe she could make it in again.

PATRICIA ARQUETTE, MEDIUM
I had prayed this was a fluke because Arquette is so bad on the NBC drama. Arquette’s two previous nominations do not make it look good for me. Arquette does have the disadvantage of starring on a procedural drama which is not as popular as either “The Closer” or “Law & Order: SVU”. Hopefully the competition will crush her.

MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES
Driver is utterly fantastic in the show and has an Emmy nomination to show for it. Hopefully SAG voters will embrace FX and this wonderful show. Driver has a previous nomination in the Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture category for “Good Will Hunting”. This is one hell of a different performance, and in my mind, a far better one. It is ten years later, so any comparison is highly unlikely.

HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE
It sort of feels like Hunter is not really trying, but I would not want to underestimate her chances. The show got renewed early on and Hunter received fantastic reviews. Hunter is previous SAG nominee for 2003’s “Thirteen”.

LORRAINE BRACCO, THE SOPRANOS
Bracco has always been in costar Edie Falco’s shadow, and has three SAG nominations to her credit. This is the show’s last season, and while Bracco has little material, she is excellent in one or two episodes. Both Sally Field and Lily Tomlin have been nominated for recurring roles without previous nominations, so Bracco should have a leg up on the competition.

EDIE FALCO, THE SOPRANOS
Falco has been nominated six out of six times she has been eligible for “The Sopranos”, winning twice. Her role is more limited this year, but she does a fine job and should easily remain on the list if she is not forced off by women on newer shows.

Current predictions:
SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES
LORRAINE BRACCO, THE SOPRANOS
EDIE FALCO, THE SOPRANOS