Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often indicates how well new shows will fare. This category tends to recognize larger casts.

Last year’s nominees:
BOSTON LEGAL
DEADWOOD (show ended)
GREY’S ANATOMY (winner)
THE SOPRANOS
24

This year’s top contenders:
BIG LOVE
This one just screams “ensemble”, and judging from the pilot (the only episode I have ever seen), the cast works extremely well together. If the show is popular enough with voters, the cast might be recognized, though this is a crowded field.

BOSTON LEGAL
I’ll be brief so as not to get myself worked up. “Boston Legal” was nominated in this category last year after being nodded in the comedy ensemble category the year before. If that makes sense to you, go ahead and expect another nomination here this year.

BROTHERS & SISTERS
What happens when you put together a group of pretty good actors and give them bad roles on a bad show? Emmy Awards! And maybe SAG awards! I do not think this show has too much of a chance but it is a big cast with a lot of popular stars, some of whom are actually decent (Rachel Griffiths).

THE CLOSER
The TNT drama’s cast made it in for the freshman year of the show, though three of the recurring players were criminally snubbed (they have now been added to the cast and would be nominated were the show recognized). “Without a Trace” was nominated in 2003, never to return, and then “The Closer” was nominated two years later, and I feel like this is one procedural that, while still appealing to fans, had its shot at this kind of award in its first year and is unlikely to get it again.

DEXTER
I predicted this show last year for this category, hoping that the stellar but underpraised ensemble would get some recognition. This year, the cast has been just as good, but the problem lies with praise being directed at only select members of the cast (mostly Michael C. Hall and Julie Benz). The addition of Keith Carradine might help, even though he is not a frequently-rewarded actor.

DIRTY SEXY MONEY
The good is that this show has an amazing cast which is both funny and serious at the same time and probably one of the best ensembles on television right now. The bad is that in the entire history of the SAG awards, no new fall network show has ever been nominated in this category (even “The West Wing” had to wait until its second broadcast year). I think the ensemble might be able to overcome this obstacle, but those are not good odds.

GREY’S ANATOMY
Two nominations thus far, and coming off a win last year. But the show has apparently plummeted in quality this season, and last year’s winners have not been doing well recently (both “CSI” and “Lost” dropped off the list immediately after winning). The ensemble probably has not changed much, with the addition of Chyler Leigh as Meredith’s sister (I think she is still around) and the departure of Kate Walsh for “Private Practice”. I have heard that George and Izzie are quite icky together, and their Emmy nominations this past year may now be kaput due to their “relations” bringing down the show.

HOUSE
I am not quite sure what happened with the ensemble on this show this past year as I have heard that the entire supporting staff was fired and replaced with the likes of Kal Penn and some others. The ensemble has never been recognized before, and from my limited experience with them, I hardly think they deserve it, but this show has continually popped at a number of different awards shows and I see little reason why it could not seep in here.

LOST
The ABC drama has only been nominated once in this category, when it won in 2005 for the second half of its first season and the first half of its second. The show suffered some quality issues this year, but I think that the cast had little to do with that. They may not have been as strong as in the first season, but new members Henry Ian Cusick, Elizabeth Mitchell, and Michael Emerson should certainly help. Shows rarely take a year off then return in this category, but both “Law & Order” and “24” have done so in recent years, and I thin “Lost” has a far more stable (in terms of quality of performance, not staying on the show very long) and reliable cast.

THE SOPRANOS
The cast of HBO’s recently departed dramedy has been nominated in this category every year since the show’s inception. The finale was controversial in terms of resolving the series, but I would say that the cast did a great job this year. This is also a perfect category for this cast: so many actors, such as Vincent Curatola, Lorraine Bracco, and Aida Turturro, appeared in precious few episodes but gave tremendous performances. This ensemble award should give them their due. “The Sopranos” has only won once, for its first season, losing in past years to “The West Wing”, “Six Feet Under”, and “CSI”, all of which will certainly be absent from this list, and “Lost” and “Grey’s Anatomy”, which will have to struggle to get nominated let alone win. I would say that this is pretty much in the bag.

Current predictions:
THE CLOSER
DEXTER
DIRTY SEXY MONEY
LOST
THE SOPRANOS