Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often indicates how well new shows will fare. This category combines performance in the lead and supporting categories for an odd assortment of nominees which really varies from year to year.

Last year’s nominees:
JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
JASON LEE, MY NAME IS EARL
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK (winner)

This year’s top contenders:
DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
Duchovny earned five consecutive nominations back in the day for his arguably less challenging work on “The X-Files”. Duchovny should be fine provided voters do not find his character too objectionable, but I doubt that will be a problem.

LARRY DAVID, CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
The extremely insensitive “Seinfeld” scribe popped up on this list two years ago when “Curb Your Enthusiasm” was last eligible. His performance is not one that necessarily qualifies as acting, and therefore his chances may suffer.

JEREMY PIVEN, ENTOURAGE
Piven got his first nomination last year for his stellar work on “Entourage”. I would say he is safe to stay for a while but supporting performers are especially vulnerable in the unpredictable race. Piven does have the added bonus of carrying his show on a good number of occasions.

TONY SHALHOUB, MONK
While he continues to be excellent, Shalhoub really has not added anything too revolutionary to his routine in the past few years. Voters likely still respect him, but may feel that he is not successfully reinventing himself enough. Shalhoub did miss out on a nomination two years ago. Working in Shalhoub’s favor is the SAG tendency to keep some actors way past their prime – Sean Hayes and Megan Mullally – and the quality of “Monk” has not even decreased (yet).

JASON LEE, MY NAME IS EARL
Lee is one of those actors who I like enough but I do not like their current role in the slightest. Lee has been nominated for the past two years and the only sign of letting up is the lack of chatter I have heard, negative or positive, about “My Name is Earl”. Newer, more exciting comedies may eclipse this tired, unfunny fare.

STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
His performance has been spot-on this entire year, and it may well be his best yet. He somehow only earned his first nomination last year despite a brilliant first year in 2005 (season one and the first half of season two). I would say Carrell is part due.

JOHN KRASINSKI & RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE
If you have read any of my other predictions, you will notice a trend. I refuse to believe that these two undeniably amazing comedians will go unrewarded by any organization for too long. I have predicted the two of them for each and every award for almost the entire run of their show (I have recently given up on predicting John C. McGinley for “Scrubs”, so I can now devote my full attention to these two). This past year, Wilson earned an Emmy nomination while Krasinski went once again unrecognized. My Golden Globe predictions include these two “Office” workers, so chances are they will show up either here or there, or better – both.

LEE PACE, PUSHING DAISIES
“Pushing Daisies” at this point is one of the most popular new shows of the season. Pace is extremely likeable, though I still say he was far more energetic on “Wonderfalls”. The fantasy/colorful nature of the show might be a bit outside the scope of SAG’s acceptable genres.

ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
The token craziness of Baldwin’s Jack Donaghy faded in the second half of the show’s season, but the popularity of “30 Rock” skyrocketed. While Baldwin’s character has yet to get all of his energy back, I cannot help but recall the recent scene where he portrayed every member of Tracy’s family in a mock therapy session. I think voters will be reminded of Baldwin’s talent even if he has not fully shown it this year.

Current predictions:
DAVID DUCHOVNY, CALIFORNICATION
STEVE CARRELL, THE OFFICE
JOHN KRASINSKI, THE OFFICE
RAINN WILSON, THE OFFICE
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK