Now that the 2012-2013 TV season is officially over, it’s hardly too early to start thinking about the Emmy nominations, which will be announced in July. Consider these preliminary thoughts rather than official predictions – look for those at the beginning of July. As always, chime in with your reactions and predictions in the comments, and don’t hesitate to let me know if I left any strong contenders off the list!
Last year’s ineligible nominees: Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law)
Last year’s eligible nominees:
Glenn Close (Damages):
When I saw that Close was a nominee last year, I immediately indicated her as ineligible to return before realizing that the show’s fifth season did in fact air during the 2012-2013 season. Close made the cut after her show switched from FX to DirecTV, and I see no reason why she wouldn’t be nominated again considering how voters like to keep retuning nominees around until their show are truly gone and forgotten.
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Danes is on fire right now. She won this award last year and has since picked up a Golden Globe and a SAG award for her work in the show’s second season. There’s no way that she won’t make the cut this year, and, in fact, she’ll probably win again. Her show is still a major hit, and she’s its most front-and-center asset.
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
Dockery got nominated last year as part of the excessive love for “Downton Abbey” in its first year competing in the drama series categories. She followed up that nomination with Golden Globe and SAG bids. Now she’s competing for the show’s third season, and it’s likely that she’ll be back again since voters seem to like her and she stands out from among the ensemble as one of its leads.
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Margulies, who won this award two years ago, survived the snub of her show in the Best Drama Series category and earned a nomination last year. The show is still popular and managed to pick up six acting mentions last year, and Margulies is all but certain to return this year as the show’s main star and its most dependable player.
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
Moss has been nominated four times, three times in this category and once in the supporting race, for the show’s third season. Though her prominence in this season has not been entirely consistent, Moss will still be competing in this race this coming year. When she is featured, however, she has been great, and that should help her get nominated again.
Past nominees:
Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU)
After eight consecutive nominations in this race, Hargitay was left off for the first time last year. As the show enters its fifteenth season, it’s far from certain that Hargitay would be returning again, and how long she might be sticking around after that. It’s not likely that she’ll be welcomed back into the race after a year off, but eight nominations suggests that she shouldn’t be dismissed entirely.
Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
Sedgwick was nominated five times in a row in this race and won in 2010. After that, she was snubbed and hasn’t been nominated since. Sedgwick should be eligible this year because her show aired its final six episodes last summer. Voters may not remember her, however, and she may also have some competition in the star of the spinoff series, Mary McDonnell.
New contenders:
Connie Britton (Nashville)
Britton joined this race three years ago for her role on “Friday Night Lights” and returned with a repeat nomination for the show’s final season. Britton was an Emmy nominee last year too in a different race for “American Horror Story,” which was considered a miniseries during its first season. She scored a Golden Globe nomination for her new part on ABC’s country music show, and might continue her streak for her latest role.
Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)
The first time that Norman Bates appeared on screen, Oscar nominations ensued. Now, he’s back on TV, and his mother is one of the most notable parts of the show. Farmiga was an Oscar nominee in 2009 for “Up in the Air,” and has a chance at being included this year if voters don’t find the show too dark. She’s also the star of a show on a network that doesn’t have too many scripted originals but has done decently with what it has offered in the past (Shirley Jones’ guest acting nomination for “The Cleaner” comes to mind).
Lucy Liu (Elementary)
Most of the positive reviews for CBS’ procedural have spotlighted the surprisingly good performance by Liu as a re-imagined female version of Sherlock Holmes’ partner Dr. Watson. Liu earned an Emmy nomination in 1999 for her supporting performance on “Ally McBeal,” and she doesn’t have to work as hard to stand out on her own show here. She does, however, have plenty of competition in this race which could impede her ability to place.
Mary McDonnell (Major Crimes)
McDonnell came so close to being nominated for an Emmy in this category for her work on “Battlestar Galactica.” She has, however, been nominated for two Emmys in the guest acting race, the first in 2002 for “ER” and then in 2011 for this very performance on the show that spun this series off, “The Closer.” McDonnell doesn’t stand out as much from her ensemble as Kyra Sedgwick did, but her Emmy track record and the show’s high ratings suggest that she shouldn’t be discounted. Keri Russell (The Americans)
Comparisons are being drawn between the former star of “Felicity” and Claire Danes, who went from a teenage TV role to an Emmy win for “Homeland.” The difference is that Russell only ever won a Golden Globe for the WB’s “Felicity,” so her chances aren’t nearly as good. FX shows sometimes do well, so it’s unclear whether or not Russell will make the cut for her acclaimed performance.
Robin Wright (House of Cards)
Wright is a contender for the strongly-received Netflix series that premiered in February on the streaming service. Her costar Kevin Spacey may make the cut in the male field, and that could open up the door for Wright and some of her supporting costars to get in too. It’s difficult to know whether Netflix can pull off a major Emmy presence, and Wright doesn’t have the awards history Spacey does to guarantee her a spot even if it does fare well.
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