Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of spoilers for listed episodes.

Toni Collette as Tara, United States of Tara (Torando!)
Last year’s winner is back with a thunderous, tour de force performance in this year’s submitted episode, which finds her stranded with her family in a basement while a tornado rages outside and flipping back and forth between her various personalities. Collette picked up the Golden Globe back in January and could easily repeat unless viewers want to reward any of the three new nominees or the returning past champ who beat her at the SAG Awards.

Edie Falco as Nurse Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Pilot)
Falco is an Emmy veteran, having amassed six nominations and three awards for her performance on HBO’s “The Sopranos.” Now, she’s switched networks and genres. She lost both the Globe and the SAG this year but has a major advantage here: her show scored a nomination for Best Comedy Series. Her submission of the pilot is spot-on because it provides voters with a crash-course introduction to her pill-popping nurse. Consider her the frontrunner.

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (Dealbreakers Talk Show #0001)
This is Fey’s fourth nomination after she scored a win for the show’s second season. Her show is just as popular as ever this year, and Fey, who won her third consecutive SAG Award earlier this year, could easily triumph again. Her submitted episode isn’t one I particularly care for, where she’s given her own talk show, but I think it’s a well-liked episode and should serve as a good vehicle to put her into the race.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Christine Campbell, New Adventures of Old Christine (I Love What You Do for Me)
Her show was cancelled but she still made it into the lineup one last time. Louis-Dreyfus won for the first year of the show that allegedly broke the “Seinfeld” curse and has been nominated every year since then. Her submitted episode positions her as a whiny girlfriend desperate not to be perceived as boring, but that’s nothing new for this character. I don’t think she has a chance at winning; she’ll have to wait until she makes another show.

Lea Michele as Rachel Berry, Glee (Sectionals)
The breakout star of FOX’s musical sensation finds herself here for a different reason than most of the other actresses: her voice. It’s certainly plausible that the 23-year-old actress could take home this award if her show is overwhelmingly popular with voters, but I think she won’t impress as much as some of the more experienced actresses in this category. Her submitted episode is nonetheless an extremely strong showcase of her abilities.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks & Recreation (Telethon)
This is the third year in a row that Poehler has been nominated for an Emmy, this year receiving a promotion from the supporting category, where she had twice been cited for her variety work on SNL. Now, she’s at the helm of another NBC show. Steve Carell still hasn’t won an Emmy and his show did get nominated (and win) for Best Comedy Series, so I think Poehler is unlikely to take home an award for her similarly somewhat unlikable character. Her episode choice is excellent, however, and shows her trying to stay up all late during a telethon.

Who should win (based on entire season): Michele (my ballot)
Who should win (based on individual episodes) : Poehler
Who will win: A three-way battle between Falco, Fey, and Collette. I give the edge to Falco.

Next up: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series


Richter Scale said...

Honestly, I think Lea Michele should have submitted something else. She's great in Sectionals, but other than her big number, she doesn't have much elsegoing for her, and I feel she should have submitted an episode that showed both her musical talents and her comedic talents. My picks would have been either Ballad or Bad Reputation. The former is great because it shows her falling in love with Mr. Shue and actively prsuing him (which is hilarious) while the latter shows her desperate need to create a bad reputation to be popular (and she has Total Eclipse of the Heart, which I think is her best number thus far). I feel she would have had a better chance with a different episode, but maybe the Streisand song will do the trick.

Also, is there some unwritten rule that Tina Fey has to win an Emmy every freaking year now? She has been winning something every year since 30 Rock started, and while I think she's a great writer, she's not that strong an actress and I feel her show has grown stale. One problem I have with 30 Rock is that while it's very clever, it lacks a heart. I don't feel the characters are real people, just vehicles for clever one-liners and political jokes, and I feel that's more true now, while in shjows like The Office and Modern Family, you laugh at the clever jokes but you also relate to the characters.

Anonymous said...

Lea Michele has got to win !!