Sunday, August 8, 2010

Emmy Winner Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series


Nominees are pictured and listed in alphabetical order. Submitted episode titles are in parentheses. Beware of spoilers for listed episodes.

Kyle Chandler as Coach Eric Taylor, Friday Night Lights (East of Dillon)
Chandler is a new addition to this category for the fourth season of his show. Statistics from Tom O’Neill indicate that it’s a rare that a performer who has never been nominated for a role before wins so late in a series’ run as this. More importantly, most voters may be coming in new to this show without having seen the previous three seasons. That’s the case for me since I don’t watch regularly, and while I can comprehend some of the sentiment regarding redistricting in the episode, it would likely be a lot more powerful if I was a regular watcher of the show. Chandler does have some great motivational scenes in this season premiere, so it’s a smart tape.

Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (Full Measure)
The star of AMC’s dark-as-anything drama has won this award for two years running, and there’s little standing in the way of him repeating a third time. His episode submission is the season finale where he has to beg for his life and make a difficult choice, which is a stunning showcase of his abilities. It may be less relatable to new viewers, but he won last year for a tape that could have required prior knowledge of the show without any problems. Working in his favor is the fact that his show has only gotten better.

Matthew Fox as Jack Shepard, Lost (The End, Parts 1 & 2)
Fox got in because voters wanted to honor the final season of ABC’s head-scratcher. There’s always the chance he could win for the show’s series finale, which gives him plenty to do in both universes, but the truth is that he’s just not as strong an actor as any of the other contenders in this category. His talent isn’t as readily obvious from an episode, even a super-sized installment like this, as his costars Terry O’Quinn and Michael Emerson in past years, and the only way he would win is if “Lost” seriously swept.

Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morga, Dexter (The Getaway)
Coming into this race, Hall is actually in quite good shape to topple two-time champ Cranston. He won both the Golden Globe and the SAG for the first time for his fourth-season square-off with past Emmy winner John Lithgow, and he submitted the season finale, which gives him a chance to finally get even before coming home to the biggest shock of his life. It’s not a perfect tape that will have voters checking off his name without a doubt, so he’ll have to hope that buzz for his show is strong.

Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (The Gypsy & the Hobo)
If there’s one person who submitted right this year, it’s Hamm. The third-to-last episode of the season has Don breaking down and crying while spilling everything to his wife. The trouble is that Hamm has always submitted smartly, and there’s always been too much competition It’s a pity that the only award Hamm won – a Golden Globe for the show’s first season – was during a ceremony where no trophies were handed out because of the writer’s strike. Fear not, however. Hamm may find himself a winner for his short but hilarious guest spot on “30 Rock” this year.

Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House, House (Broken, Parts 1 & 2)
Laurie is in the same situation as “The Closer” star Kyra Sedgwick, nominated pretty much since the beginning of his show and now way overdue for an award. Like Sedgwick, however, it’s hopeless, since after so many years the freshness of his performance has disappeared and countless new contenders have emerged. Submitting the two-hour season premiere where he finds himself in a mental institution was a good idea, but the episode itself feels hopelessly long and his performance doesn’t feel as clever as it once was.

Who should win (based on entire season): Cranston (my ballot)
Who should win (based on individual episodes) : Hamm
Who will win: It’s a tight race between Cranston and Hall. I think Hall dethrones Cranston for the first time this year.

Next up: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

8 comments:

Greg Boyd said...

Might I take this time to once again inform you that you are missing out on one wonderful show by not watching "FNL"? It's unquestionably the best show I've ever seen on network TV, and it's far better than most cable shows as well.

Chandler doesn't deserve to win as much as Connie Britton, but he's flat-out terrific. I'd go with Hamm, though. To be fair, I haven't watched Cranston in "Breaking Bad" at all (or Michael C. Hall).

Greg Boyd said...

Well, with DirecTV picking it up, I guess "FNL" techinically is a "cable show" now. Still, it was also broadcast on NBC. Thankfully, that's one of the few channels I'm still getting right now.

Richter Scale said...

Abe, I have to disagree with you that Fox is not a strong actor. Did you ever see Party of Five? Fox was amazing on that show. He played a character who was reckless, often unlikable, but who genuinely cared for his family and it made us root for him. I think that in Lost he has the disadvantage of having Terry O'Quinn and Michael Emerson and other great actors stealing scenes from him so it's hard for him to shine, but he does a great job carrying the show and especially in the finale, he has the job of closing the show, and he does a splendid job at it. I think this season, particularly in the last few episodes, he showed us why he is a strong actor.

Still, I would pick Hamm to win this year. I think this has been his best season thus far (in fact, I think the third has been the best season of Mad Men period) and even though he made a smart submission, I think just about any episode this season would have been smart (particularly those in the latter part of the season). As much as I think Cranston is great, this category is filled with talent and he already won twice while no one else in this category has won at all, so I want someone else to win.

I wouldn't be upset with Hugh Laurie, since I just started watching House and he is magnificent, even if the character is a jerk. Think of it this way Abe, would you think the performance would be impressive if it were the first time you were seeing him? I think that's the way Emmy should think with non-serialized shows. What if you were just watching a random episode in the middle of a random season? Also, I saw Michael C. Hall and Kyle Chandler in a few episodes of their shows, and they are both quite good, so I wouldn't mind either of them winning. I'm still rooting for Jon Hamm though.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Who should win (based on the season): Bryan Cranston or Michael C. Hall

Who should win (based on individual episodes): Jon Hamm or Hugh Laurie.


And I disagree completely with you Abe regarding Laurie and "Broken". It's one hell of a double episode and Laurie is fantastic in it (and as I am a regular watcher, I can tell you it was the first time in a very long, long time when I really thought Laurie was awards-worthy again).

Greg Boyd said...

I'm certain that Laurie is still brilliant, though I agree he won't/shouldn't win. As for "Broken", it was a pretty decent episode all things considered. It's also one of the last "House" episodes I ever watched. What has happened to that show after the Amber-coma episodes (which were wonderful) is truly sad. I used to be such a huge fan.

Note: the awfulness of the show post-Amber isn't Laurie's fault. It's the writers'.

Movies with Abe said...

Glad to see this is spurring so much discussion! I'll point out that I watched only Laurie's submitted episode of "House" and the three submitted episodes of "Friday Night Lights" in the various categories (East of Dillon, After the Fall, and The Son), so that's where I'm coming from regarding those two shows.

Cranston and Hall are both terrific actors whose performances this past season were even better than they've been in the past, especially Cranston. Richter, while you would say that he's already won twice, this is the year he really deserves it.

As far as Fox goes, the fact that he's not a strong actor is indeed my opinion. I haven't seen Party of Five. His performance in the finale of "Lost" is certainly energetic, so that's something, but compared to the week-to-week performances by Cranston, Hall, and Hamm, he doesn't hold a candle in my book.

Hamm has been doing terrific work since season one, and while he's been my runner-up each year, that means he's been that great every single year. He really should have won for season one rather than Cranston, and now I fear it may be too late.

As mentioned above, Laurie's episode was the only "House" installment from this season that I watched, and it didn't do much for me. Part of it is that I don't really like the show itself, but also it wasn't nearly as strong in my mind as something like "House's Head" from two years ago.

Richter Scale said...

Maybe, but I feel like winning again when no one else in your category has ever won is a bit unfair. Though I may be a bit hypocritical, because I really want Mad Men to win this year for the third time, but I just don't feel it with Cranston (I like Breaking Bad, but it's just not a show I get excited about).

As for Party of Five, you should really check it out (I think you can find the third season on Hulu and most of the rest on Youtube). Matthew Fox plays the eldest brother of a family of five children whose parents were killed in a car crash and are trying to figure things out on their own. The show also stars Scott Wolf, Neve Campbell and Lacey Chabert as three of the other siblings, and Jennifer Love Hewitt has a substantial role from the second season onward (the show launched all of their careers). Check it out some time.

Movies with Abe said...

Thanks for the recommendation! There are a number of other shows, like "The Wire," on that someday list that may come before this.