Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. My analysis may be somewhat more limited here as I haven’t seen a good number of the performers and their episodes. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Brad Dourif & Ron Canada (Law & Order)

KEITH CARRADINE, DEXTER (Morning Comes)
Carradine appeared in all but one of the episodes in this season of “Dexter”, and he was perfectly cast from day one. I fear that the same fate may await him as did Forest Whitaker for a similar role on “The Shield” two years ago, which resulted in no nomination at all (though I think Whitaker went supporting). Carradine chose a great episode, and I think he has what it takes to get in, especially since his role is much less violent than Michael C. Hall’s, and his romance with Deb should help make him more likable.

CHARLES DURNING, RESCUE ME (Yaz)
Durning received a lot of buzz, on Emmy forums at least, last year for his performance as Denis Leary’s dad on the FX firefighter drama. He didn’t make the cut, unsurprisingly, especially due to the overwhelming number of actors submitted in the supporting category. This year he’s in the guest spot, and he had a great performance in his episode, and I’m sure it doesn’t hurt (SPOILER ALERT) that he dies at the end of his submitted episode. He’s an eight-time Emmy nominee, including two mentions in this very category in the past ten years. His inclusion is very possible.

DANNY GLOVER, BROTHERS & SISTERS (The Feast of Epiphany)
I haven’t seen Glover’s submission because I’ve seen about as much of “Brothers & Sisters” as I can take. Glover is a four-time Emmy nominee playing opposite last year’s Best Actress winner Sally Field, and therefore his chances should be good. This is an incredibly competitive category with a lot of veteran actors and someone’s going to get snubbed – my money is on Glover.

ROBERT MORSE, MAD MEN (Nixon vs. Kennedy)
Morse is the little-seen other partner in the Sterling-Cooper advertising firm on “Mad Men”. John Slattery, who portrays Sterling, is a likely nominee in the supporting category. Morse plays his role perfectly and voters seem to love the show. His episode submission is fine, but I think Morse will lose out to showier contenders, like Williams, who have stronger episodes which showcase truly terrific performances.

PETER O’TOOLE, THE TUDORS (Episode 208)
This is Peter O’Toole. I don’t watch the show, but I’m sure he’s great. And even if I wasn’t sure, or even if he wasn’t actually great, it doesn’t matter. It’s rare that legendary performers like O’Toole do television, and the guest acting category is a perfect place to honor them. The fact that “The Tudors” made the top ten for Best Drama Series only helps him because that means that there is some quality to the show, not just an amazing guest actor.

OLIVER PLATT, NIP/TUCK (Carly Summers)
Platt is a three-time Emmy nominee, first in this category for “The West Wing” years ago, and then twice in the supporting race for his work on the Showtime drama “Huff”. I’m sure he’s great on “Nip/Tuck”, a show I gave up on long ago, but the series never quite took with the Emmys. That’s not necessarily a problem in this category, and Jill Clayburgh did manage a nomination a few years back for her guest-starring role. I think Platt has a better shot this year with the mini-series “The Bronx is Burning”.

PETER RIEGERT, DAMAGES (Do You Regret What We Did?)
I’d consider Riegert’s inclusion a surprise, and a sign that voters really, really, really like “Damages”. Riegert’s recurring role isn’t nearly as strong as, say, Carradine or Durning, but he could coast on the show’s popularity. His submission, while it does somewhat cleverly craft him as an uncertain hero slash potential villain, is similar to Morse’s: the performance doesn’t leave a showy lasting impression.

STANLEY TUCCI, ER (The War Comes Home)
Tucci is an excellent actor who doesn’t receive nearly as much credit as he deserves, and he missed out in this category last year. He did, however, beat out Martin Landau and Ian McKellen in the corresponding comedy race, so voters clearly like him. His performance on “ER” (I haven’t seen it) may not be as fine-tuned, but I think it’s likely he’ll make the cut. “ER” always seems to manages to hang on in the guest categories, with a nominee in this category since 2003 and in any guest category since 2000.

GLYNN TURMAN, IN TREATMENT (Alex: Week 8)
Turman delivers a commanding performance as the father of Blair Underwood’s character on the HBO therapy series. He dominates the episode, which involves only him and Gabriel Byrne to begin with, and the most interesting part is that his mannerisms are almost identical to Underwood’s. Turman’s real challenge was making the top ten, but now that he’s in, I think he has a terrific shot at a nomination.

ROBIN WILLIAMS, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Authority)
The most-hyped guest star of the season was featured in an episode that actually wasn’t so great. Williams, however, did an excellent job portraying a “concerned citizen” who took illegal measures to bring out the worst in people to make a political statement. Williams should easily get a nomination, his only concern will be beating O’Toole.

Current predictions:
KEITH CARRADINE, DEXTER
PETER O’TOOLE, THE TUDORS
STANLEY TUCCI, ER
GLYNN TURMAN, IN TREATMENT
ROBIN WILLIAMS, LAW & ORDER: SVU