Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Listed below are the eleven semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Yunjin Kim (Lost), Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights), January Jones (Mad Men), Sara Ramirez (Grey’s Anatomy)

JANE ALEXANDER, TELL ME YOU LOVE ME (Episode 10)
This is another performer whose episode I haven’t watched because I actually can’t find access to the episode. The pilot was more than enough sex for me though. Alexander is one of the many actresses in this category to get in on name recognition alone. I doubt voters watch this show, and looking at the episode, I feel like Dianne Wiest will be the preferred therapist. I think Alexander has no shot at all.

CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL (The Mighty Rogues)
Bergen is wholly undeserving of a nomination because she’s really just not good on the show. Unfortunately, her episode submission and the lack of any solid competition in the category all but guarantee her the nomination. Her episode is uber-serious without the usual comedy of “Boston Legal”, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good performance. I’d be thrilled if she got snubbed, but I’m not that hopeful.

ROSE BYRNE, DAMAGES (Because I Know Patty)
First off, this is the worst case of category fraud I think I’ve ever seen. She’s most definitely the lead, and usually more front-and-center than Close. Aside from that, Byrne is awful. I’ve written about this many, many times. Luckily for her, she submitted the finale, which represents the best showcase of her acting, however bad, and should have no problem getting in once voters see all the actresses who got in based just on name recognition. Her poor acting will be a refreshing change for them.

JILL CLAYBURGH, DIRTY SEXY MONEY (The Watch)
Clayburgh is great, don’t get me wrong, but she definitely got in based on her reputation and not necessarily the show, given all the other terrific performers on the snow snubbed (most notably, Peter Krause, Donald Sutherland, and Natalie Zea – the only ones with a decent shot at breaking into their respective top tens). Clayburgh chose a great episode which perfectly suits the tone of the show. I don’t she’ll be able to make it in, though, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her name called on Emmy nomination day.

SHARON GLESS, BURN NOTICE (Identity) (not pictured)
Did anyone even know that Gless was on a TV show these days? Gless is an eight-time nominee and two-time winner, but I’m sure the caliber of her work was much higher way back when than it is on “Burn Notice”. Voters did love Lacey on “Judging Amy”, but I’m almost positive that Gless ranked dead last on the popular vote and she’s just not in enough of her episode to merit a mention. She’s fine in the episode, but it’s not a role worthy of awards. I’d rank her eleventh.

RACHEL GRIFFITHS, BROTHERS & SISTERS (Domestic Issues)
Watching “Brothers & Sisters” is always painful for me partially because the show is terrible, but also because Griffiths’ role is so limiting as compared to her incredible work on “Six Feet Under” for which she somehow only got nominated for two Emmys (she was eligible for four; no one from the cast ever won, save for guest star Patricia Clarkson). I wrote last year that it might serve her well that she’s infinitely better than the rest of the cast rather than equally stellar, but I think she’s in no matter what. Her episode is a good submission choice, with serious issues of having her children taken away. She has a decent shot at winning, too, especially if voters are over “Grey’s Anatomy”.

CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, MAD MEN (Babylon)
Hendricks was an entirely surprising inclusion over the expected January Jones. Regardless, Hendricks does do great work on the show and it’s nice to see a player like her get recognized. She chose a fitting episode, but I don’t think she’s well known enough to battle the popularity of the older stars in this category and she doesn’t have the same freshman-show buzz as Rose Byrne. If voters really go wild for “Mad Men”, there’s a chance Hendricks gets in, but I highly doubt it.

S. EPATHA MERKERSON, LAW & ORDER (Bottomless)
Merkerson is one actress who has absolutely no business being in the top ten. Maybe she was great a few years ago (I just saw an old episode of “Law & Order” where Sam Waterston’s pretty energetic and terrific), but no longer. She’s hardly in any of the episodes, and it’s as bland a performance as can be. Her submitted episode belongs to guest star Ron Canada, who missed out on his top ten placement, but more importantly, it’s a good storyline for her character. The actress doesn’t play it well, just like another “Law & Order” franchise member this year (Mariska Hargitay). Count her out, at least I hope. She does not deserve it.

SANDRA OH, GREY’S ANATOMY (The Becoming)
Oh is the only “Grey’s Anatomy” star to have been nominated for the show’s entire run, and in a field that this year includes veteran actresses with near-cameos and unknown first-time players, Oh is as good as locked for a fourth nomination. Her episode submission, however, is rather poor in my mind. She’s far less in-your-face irritating than in some of her costars’ submitted episodes, but she’s hardly in it, hardly says a word, and sings randomly. The problem is, I don’t see which of the other six actresses in this top eleven takes her spot. Any thoughts?

DIANNE WIEST, IN TREATMENT (submission unknown)
Two-time Oscar winner Wiest got in over newbie Mia Wasikowska, who with a much showier role (and truthfully, better-acted) might have had a better shot at securing a nomination had she made the top ten. Wiest is fine, but she appropriately allows Gabriel Byrne to dominate most of their episodes together. And if she submitted an episode with Michelle Forbes in it, it’s likely voters will altogether forget about Wiest and write-in Forbes’ name (I’m sure that’s not allowed). If only we knew the episode…I don’t think she’ll make it in anyhow.

CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY (Lay Your Hands on Me)
I never quite got the hype for Wilson. I guess you might have to be a devoted “Grey’s Anatomy” fan to understand what’s so special about her. In any case, she’s in without question based on her episode submission. While I don’t think she handles it terribly well, it’s a part practically written for an Emmy, where her young son is brought into the emergency room. Especially with (practically) no competition from other “Grey’s Anatomy” stars, she’s in.

Current predictions:
CANDICE BERGEN, BOSTON LEGAL
ROSE BYRNE, DAMAGES
RACHEL GRIFFITHS, BROTHERS & SISTERS
SANDRA OH, GREY’S ANATOMY
CHANDRA WILSON, GREY’S ANATOMY