Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Matthew Fox (Lost), Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (The Tudors)

GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT (Paul and Gina: Week 4)
Byrne is HBO’s sole representative in this category for his portrayal of a therapist with several very intense patients. His submission shows him at a session with his own therapist, and it’s an excellent showcase of all his anger bubbling up and coming out. Acting opposite Dianne Wiest and holding his own can’t hurt his chances. His show is pretty small, but his should play really well.

KYLE CHANDLER, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (Last Day of Summer)
This is Chandler’s second year in the top ten after an impressive top ten presence by the show led to a great big nothing come nomination time. I’m a bit perplexed by his submission. He has very little to do, and the fact that he’s only back for a bit from a far-off assignment made little sense to me, and I’m sure voters will feel the same way. I’d easily rank him dead last.

BRYAN CRANSTON, BREAKING BAD (Pilot)
Cranston got nominated for a few Emmys in the supporting comedy actor category for his performance on “Malcolm in the Middle.” The good news for him is that he’s really acting much more in this show. It took me a few episodes to warm up to the idea of him and to the show, and voters may feel the same way. It’s definitely an odd show and a bizarre role, so my money is on Byrne to make it in for slot number five over Cranston.

PATRICK DEMPSEY, GREY’S ANATOMY (Freedom, Parts 1 & 2)
McDreamy made it into the top ten, but I highly doubt he’ll be able to crack the final five. Besides being generally useless, he doesn’t do much of anything in his submitted episode. His somewhat meaty plotline, operating on cancer patients, is completely stolen by guest star Jurnee Smollett. Yelling at Meredith that she kills patients probably doesn’t help his cause. If you’re not a “Grey’s Anatomy” fan, I doubt you care about the Mer-Der relationship (as I believe it’s termed), and the end-of-episode resolution should therefore be pretty inconsequential.

MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER (There’s Something About Harry)
Hall is so good on this show that it really doesn’t matter which episode he submitted. In his episode, he is dealing with realizing the role he played in his father’s death, and also debating his morals in dealing with a certain hostage of his who knows his true identity. I’ve heard voters really don’t like the violence of the show, and he somehow got snubbed last year, but I can’t imagine that his popularity and the strength of his acting can keep him from getting a nomination this year.

JON HAMM, MAD MEN (The Wheel)
Hamm fully inhabits the role of advertising executive Don Draper, perfectly fitting into the 1960s background and culture. His show is insanely popular and older voters I’m sure will love him. He does a great job in his episode submission, the season finale, struggling with issues of work over family and the like. I cannot imagine a scenario where he doesn’t make the final lineup.

EDDIE IZZARD, THE RICHES (Last Temptation of Wayne)
Izzard is unconditionally excellent, but if he didn’t get nominated last year with his unbelievably amazing submission of the pilot, I don’t think he ever will. He’s running around frantically trying to deal with problems in this year’s season premiere, and he certainly commands the screen. I’d love to see him get rewarded, but I’d rank him least likely only after Chandler and Dempsey.

HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE (House’s Head)
Laurie’s in regardless of his episode choice, but he did choose very well. In part one of the season finale, House has to attempt to retrieve his memory and save a dying patient. The episode’s memory flashbacks are a bit gimmicky, but it works well enough and gives Laurie just the right mix of humor (diagnosing patients with random diseases to keep them in the hospital) and drama (actually recalling the bus crash). He’s in.

DENIS LEARY, RESCUE ME (Babyface)
Leary’s been nominated the past two years running, and it stands to reason he’d get in again this year. His submission is great, the season premiere riding the coattails of an excellent season last year. Perhaps I’m letting my impression of the latter half of the season affect me too much, but I think Leary may fall out this year. Michael Chiklis of “The Shield”, another FX series, only got nominated twice. My bet is that Byrne or Cranston takes Leary’s spot this year.

JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL (The Court Supreme)
I was very happy when Spader picked up a surprise win for “The Practice” four years ago but I’ve gotten rather tired of his whole shtick and his continual victories over more deserving winners. His episode all but guarantees him another submission, with a lengthy speech (I believe some timed it at ten minutes) yelling at the Supreme Court. He’s in for a nomination, hopefully not the win over Hall or Hamm.

Current predictions:
GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
JON HAMM, MAD MEN
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
JAMES SPADER, BOSTON LEGAL