Emmy Predictions: Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Listed below are the ten semi-finalists for this category. Episodes submitted by performers are listed in parentheses after their names. Beware of minor spoilers for the episodes described. Nominees are pictured in order of likelihood of getting nominated, and listed below alphabetically.

Notably missing: Evangeline Lilly (Lost), Ellen Pompeo (Grey’s Anatomy)

PATRICIA ARQUETTE, MEDIUM (Aftertaste)
I’ve written many times about the horrid inclusion of one of the worst performances on television in this category. Arquette returned to the lineup last year after what I had hoped was a fluke, and it’s extremely possible she’ll be back again this year. Her submission makes little sense, as it’s not a meaty episode for her and she’s barely in it. This category had six nominees last year, and even this year’s lineup is super-sized again, I doubt she’ll make it in.

GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES (Pilot)
Close doesn’t do nearly as much as she’s given credit for on this show, but two things are certain: voters love this show, recognizing all the lead performers and even recurring guest star Peter Reigert; and Glenn Close is a powerhouse actress. She’s in, that’s for sure, the question now is whether she’ll win. A question for another time.

MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES (Dead Calm)
Driver made it in for “The Riches” last year with what I considered a relatively poor submission, and she’s infinitely better in this year’s episode. It is a pretty out-there episode and her character is high as a kite on drugs, but Driver handles it magnificently. My fear is that the show’s popularity has slipped, but I do hope she’ll get in once again.

SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS (History Repeating)
Field does not have enough in this episode to merit a nomination. Additionally, I happen to think she’s actually pretty bad on the show. I’m shocked to find myself agreeing with some other people who say that Calista Flockhart, who’s pretty annoying herself, would be far more deserving of a nod this year. Sadly, I’m confident that Field will make it in again; I just hope she doesn’t walk away with another win over Sedgwick or Driver.

MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Undercover)
I thought Hargitay was rather good in the episode she won for two years ago (“911”) but I wasn’t nearly as impressed here. She goes undercover and almost gets raped, and it’s a role that should win an award, but I didn’t like her performance much. Emmy voters may not agree with me. Her situation of figuring into awards was a bit strange, with a sudden appearance on the SAG nominees list back in 2003, followed by a Golden Globe win the following year, and four Emmy nominations since. I think once she’s out, she won’t ever return. Unless there are 6 nominees this year, I don’t see her being one of them.

HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE (Taco, Tulips, Duck, and Spices)
Hunter is that other Oscar favorite powerhouse actress on a new cable show. While neither she nor her show might have nearly as much buzz as Close or “Damages”, Hunter turns in a commendable performance. The fact that she’s far better than her show probably helps rather than hurts her. Her episode is a good showcase of both her comedic skills and the anger she can muster up in seconds. The twang certainly isn’t a negative for Sedgwick. I’d consider her safe after Golden Globe and SAG nods.

ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN (The Hobo Code)
Moss’ inclusion is somewhat of a surprise, considering she isn’t really a lead on the show and in my opinion is probably the weakest member of the cast. Her chances are extremely slim despite the popularity of the show. She’s less than half the age of a good portion of the other contenders in this category, and I think it will be a good long while before, if ever, she makes the cut. Her episode choice is smart, but she’s pretty unlikable so I doubt that coupled with her age will play out well.

MARY MCDONNELL, BATTLESTAR GALACTICA (Faith)
I predicted her inclusion, but I was sort of going out a limb. She’s on an immensely genre show whose very shocking inclusion in last year’s directing and writing races encouraged me to get into the series. It’s exciting but a little bittersweet considering she’s not actually the strongest member of the cast (Tricia Helfer, James Callis, or Katee Sackhoff in another season). Regardless, this is the closest she’s ever been to getting nominated, and her episode choice is spot-on (cancer ward). Hey, if “Star Trek: The Next Generation” could get nominated for Best Drama Series its final season, why doesn’t McDonnell have a shot? This field is too competitive, in my mind, and she’s ahead of only Tripplehorn and Moss. I’d love to predict her though, and rest assured, if she gets nominated, fans are going to go CRAZY.

KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER (Manhunt)
Sedgwick’s one of those people who’s pretty much locked in for a nomination at this point, though she somehow still hasn’t won an Emmy. Her episode is a good choice, mixing action with the comedic reaction to her menopause. There’s little more to say, except that, other than Sally Field (barring a shocking snub), she’s the only safe returning nominee. And sadly, this is likely Glenn Close’s year to win.

JEANNE TRIPPLEHORN, BIG LOVE (Take Me As I Am)
I haven’t actually see this episode since this is one of the shows (along with “The Tudors” and “The Wire”) that I’ve chosen not to screen episodes from since I’ve only seen the pilot and might at one point get into it chronologically, but now is not that time. I don’t think Tripplehorn has a very good shot because she’s not as popular as the big seven (last year’s nominees Sedgwick, Field, Arquette, and Driver as well as newcomers Close and Hunter) and no one’s clamoring for a nomination for her as much as for McDonnell. Her show didn’t make it into the top ten for Best Drama Series, and I’d also imagine she often gets overshadowed by her female costars/wives.

Current predictions:
GLENN CLOSE, DAMAGES
MINNIE DRIVER, THE RICHES
SALLY FIELD, BROTHERS & SISTERS
HOLLY HUNTER, SAVING GRACE
KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER